Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Gold Rises with US–China Talks, MidEast Conflict in Focus
Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, with spot gold reaching $4,757.59 an ounce and U.S. June futures climbing to $4,768.20. The rally was sparked by heightened attention on the upcoming U.S.–China summit and renewed tensions in the Middle East, which also lifted oil prices. Investors are also bracing for the U.S. Consumer Price Index release, a key gauge of inflation that could shape the Federal Reserve’s rate path. Meanwhile, Freeport‑McMoRan reaffirmed that Indonesia’s Grasberg mine will resume full production by the end of 2027, supporting future supply outlooks.
US Chamber Warns Limited Window to Counter China’s Supply‑chain Push
US Chamber of Commerce has warned that countries have only a “finite” window to respond to Chinese policies that are deepening reliance on its supply chains and harming the global economy. The Washington-based lobby group said Beijing was “doubling...
US Imports From China Plunge, Vietnam and India Rise
China’s share of goods imported to the U.S. has fallen from 22% at the start of Trump’s first term in 2017 to just 7.5% in the first three months of this year, as American companies have shifted supply chains for...
Bears Tighten Grip on D-Street as GIFT Nifty Points to Weak Opening
Indian equities slipped about 1.5% on Monday as the failure of U.S.-Iran peace talks rattled global sentiment. Foreign portfolio investors net bought roughly ₹8,437 crore (≈$1 bn) while domestic institutional investors added about ₹5,939 crore (≈$715 m). The India VIX surged 10% to 18.5,...
Higher Energy Prices Naturally Balance Supply and Demand
But they are already doing that by pushing for demand destruction. By telling people to work from home, reduce mobility, refiners to not buy so much oil or spend foreign exchange, or refiners not able to pass on higher input...
“Booming Government Spending” Will Force RBA to Hike Again
Australia's underlying inflation stayed above the RBA's 2‑3% target before the Middle East conflict, prompting a 0.25% cash‑rate hike in February. RBA Governor Michele Bullock directly linked record public spending to excess demand and warned that additional fiscal stimulus could...
Oil Prices Rise as Fragile US-Iran Talks Sustain Supply Worries
Oil prices nudged higher in early Asian trade as fragile U.S.-Iran cease‑fire talks kept supply worries alive. Brent crude rose 30 cents to $104.51 a barrel and WTI gained 31 cents to $98.38, after both benchmarks jumped nearly 2.8% the...
Gold Steady as Traders Track Strait of Hormuz Stalemate, Inflation Risks
Gold held near US$4,740 an ounce on Tuesday as traders weighed the escalating deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz, which has lifted oil prices and revived inflation worries. President Donald Trump dismissed Iran’s reaction to a U.S. peace proposal as...
Oil Shock Rattles D-Street as Rupee Hits Record Low
India’s equity markets slumped on Monday as Brent crude breached $104 per barrel, pushing the rupee to a record closing low of 95.31 per dollar. The Nifty 50 fell 1.5% to 23,815.85, breaking the 24,000 support, while the Sensex dropped 1.7%...
Australia's Debt Rose to 32%
15 years ago Australia had almost no net government debt (5-6% to GDP). Since then, despite ongoing economic growth of 2-3% avg, and essentially full employment, the govt has run increasing deficits such that net debt/GDP is now ~32%. Almost...
Venezuela Still Holds World's Highest Inflation at 529%
#VNZWatch🇻🇪: Today, I measure Venezuela's inflation AS THE WORLD'S HIGHEST at a CRUSHING 529.1%/yr. That's down from a peak of 828.6%/yr on February 4th. YOU WON’T FIND THIS IMPORTANT STORY IN THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA SPIN. https://t.co/BXznEebbH4
Zimbabwe Bans Raw Lithium Exports, Shaking Global Battery‑Metal Supply Chain
The Zimbabwean government imposed an outright ban on raw lithium ore and unrefined spodumene concentrate exports on Feb. 25, 2026, disrupting Chinese toll‑refining operations and prompting a price floor for lithium carbonate. The move, dubbed the “Zimbabwean Gambit,” forces local value‑addition...
Tariffs Hurt Consumers, Ranchers Block Trump’s Trade Gains
Worst of all worlds for Trump, tbh. Admit imports lower prices (and tariffs increase them), but don't get any actual market benefit bc of opposition from profiteering US ranchers & their GOP friends in Congress.
ECB Vice‑President Luis De Guindos Urges Caution on Future Rate Hikes
In a Financial Times interview, ECB Vice‑President Luis de Guindos cautioned that the central bank should move carefully on any further interest‑rate increases. His remarks have sharpened market focus on the June policy meeting and added volatility to Euro‑Stoxx 50 equities...
China's April Trade Surplus Expands to $84.1 Bn as Exports Rise to $312.4 Bn
China's customs bureau reported on May 9 that April 2026 trade posted a $84.1 bn surplus, driven by $312.4 bn in exports and a 15.4% month‑on‑month drop in imports. The figures mark a sharp reversal from March’s import surge and highlight the impact...
Chipmakers Lift S&P 500 and Nasdaq to Record Highs as Oil Prices Surge
AI‑focused chipmakers such as Nvidia, Intel and Qualcomm propelled the S&P 500 up 0.33% to 7,424 and the Nasdaq up 0.40% to 26,352, even as West Texas Intermediate crude rose to $98 a barrel. The rally underscores the outsized influence...
Physical Oil Cargo Prices Plunge 90% as Buyers Pause Ahead of US‑Iran Deal
Physical oil cargo premiums have slumped by as much as 90% in the past month, with buyers stepping back while a US‑Iran peace deal looms. The retreat follows a brief rally that saw Brent futures breach $105 a barrel, underscoring...
Food Prices Spike Again, Vegetable Oil Leads Surge
The FAO Food Price Index rose for a third straight month in April, hitting its highest level since Feb 2023. Vegetable oil prices led the surge, rising 5.9% MoM. THE US-ISRAELI WAR'S COLLATERAL DAMAGE IS MASSIVE. https://t.co/Z5NCEspTDb
Warsh Nomination Sparks Fed Politicization, Prompting 10Y Selloff
Macro: Warsh nomination raises Fed politicization. Key: White House pressure, rate path, balance-sheet plans. Risk: policy uncertainty. Trade: shorten duration—sell 10Y Treasuries into June meeting. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Iran War Threatens Long-Term Confidence in Hormuz Oil Flows, IEA Says
The International Energy Agency’s Fatih Birol warned that the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz has permanently damaged confidence in one of the world’s most critical oil and gas chokepoints. The waterway, which moves roughly a fifth of global oil...
Middle East War Could Cost US Households Billions
From the Financial Times article seeking to estimate the economic cost of the Middle East war to US households, businesses, and the federal budget. #economy #markets #middleeastwar @financialtimes
Copper Hits Record High on Data‑Center Demand, Mine Disruption
From the Wall Street Journal: "Copper prices notched a new record high Monday, rising on strong demand for data-center construction, supply disruptions at one of the world's largest mines and surging input costs." #economy #markets #inflation #copper @wsj
Why the Oil Price Is Stable
Morgan Stanley’s latest charts show crude oil prices holding steady despite ongoing geopolitical tension. The market entered the conflict with sizable inventory buffers and continues to price in a rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Adding to the equilibrium,...
Trump Rejects Latest Iran Peace Proposal, Says Ceasefire on 'Life Support'
President Donald Trump rejected Iran's latest peace proposal, calling the cease‑fire "on life support" because it omitted nuclear concessions. The White House announced a new round of sanctions and said Trump would meet senior military commanders to consider next steps....
Aramco CEO Says Demand 'Rationing' Will Continue
Saudi Aramco reported a 26% jump in first‑quarter adjusted net income, reaching $33.6 billion. The profit increase came amid heightened geopolitical risk as Iran moved to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit chokepoint. CEO Amin H. Nasser said...
Stock Market Today: Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow Fall as Wall Street Weighs CPI Inflation Print
U.S. equities slipped Tuesday as the Nasdaq fell 1.2% and the S&P 500 dropped 0.7% after posting record highs, driven by a hotter‑than‑expected April CPI that showed 3.8% year‑over‑year inflation, the strongest since May 2023. The higher‑than‑forecast core CPI (0.4% month‑over‑month, 2.8%...
Stock Market Today: Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow Futures Fall as Wall Street Braces for CPI Inflation Data
U.S. stock futures slipped on Tuesday as the tech‑heavy Nasdaq 100 fell 0.7% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.4% ahead of the April Consumer Price Index release. Investors are watching the CPI, expected to rise 3.7% year‑over‑year, for clues on...
Manufacturing Revenue and Profitability Slump as Global Conflict Pressures Sector, Report Says
Australian small‑and‑medium manufacturers saw revenue plunge 42% quarter‑on‑quarter to $356,000 AUD (≈$235,000 USD) in Q1 2026, while average gross margins slipped to 32.8%, the lowest since Unleashed began tracking in 2018. Inventory values fell 56% YoY to about $200,500 AUD (≈$132,000 USD) and raw‑material...
Iran War Deadlock Fuels Market Uncertainty
Iran’s ongoing war deadlock has left the Strait of Hormuz effectively blocked, reigniting a surge in oil prices as the market grapples with supply uncertainty. President Donald Trump floated a federal gas‑tax holiday to ease pump prices, but the proposal...
Trump China Visit; China’s Next Generation Industrial Policy; Standardizing and Developing AI Agents; No More Deflation?; Ding Xuexiang Visits Huawei
President Donald Trump will travel to Beijing May 13‑15 for a high‑level meeting with Xi Jinping, accompanied by a small group of U.S. CEOs. A new Rhodium Group report for the U.S. Chamber warns that China is moving to an...
Mideast Turmoil Could Benefit Oil-Field Services' Big Three
The three dominant oil‑field service companies are adhering closely to their 2024 capital‑expenditure guidance, yet they remain ready to boost spending if compelling projects surface. Higher crude prices are prompting operators to accelerate upstream initiatives, which in turn lifts demand...
Stocks and Bonds Hold Losses After Inflation Data: Markets Wrap
JPMorgan warned that inflation will remain persistently higher after the latest CPI report highlighted elevated energy costs and supply disruptions linked to the war in Iran. The data pushed U.S. equities lower, eroding gains from all‑time highs, with chipmakers leading...
Albo & Chalmers vs the Reserve Bank – On Home Grown Inflation
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by a quarter‑point to 4.35%, marking a third straight increase. Treasury Minister Jim Chalmers quickly posted on X that the decision was driven by the war in the Middle East, emphasizing the...
Brewing Government Bond Market Crises
The article warns that the United States, major European economies and Japan are on unsustainable fiscal paths that could trigger sovereign bond market crises. In the U.S., deficits are projected to exceed six percent of GDP—over $2 trillion a year—and foreign...
Fed's Rate Cuts Aim to Balance Jobs and Inflation
Monetary policy is a blunt, highly imperfect tool. The Federal Reserve, unique in having a dual mandate of promoting price stability & full employment. When both of its mandates are out of whack, it has to assess which is more...
FirstFT: Donald Trump to Press Xi Jinping on China’s Support for Iran at Summit
Donald Trump announced he will confront Chinese President Xi Jinping at the upcoming summit, demanding answers on Beijing's alleged military and logistical support for Iran. The move signals a direct U.S. challenge to China’s growing influence in the Middle East....
Nations Brace for Long-Term Economic Woes as Trump Calls Iran Truce Plan ‘Garbage’
President Trump dismissed Iran's latest cease‑fire proposal as "garbage," warning that the truce is on "massive life support" and reigniting fears of prolonged economic pain. Tehran’s counter‑offer, delivered through Pakistani mediators, seeks U.S. war reparations, recognition of Iranian sovereignty over...
2026 S&P 500 Forecast Update - May 11, 2026
The research firm released an updated 2026 S&P 500 forecast after the index surged past its April target zone, reaching levels well above the 6,800 mark that framed the original outlook. The rally occurred despite persistent geopolitical tension from the...
Copper Scarcity Drives 77% Price Surge Since 2023
It's been three years since this fireside with @ErikSchatzker at @BloombergLive’s @QatarEconForum in 2023. The message is even truer now than it was then: copper is fundamental to the global economy and when it comes to supply, there’s just not...
Sumner Hails Halperin as Pragmatic NGDP‑Targeting Economist
Scott Sumner on @BasilHalperin: "I see Halperin as a pragmatist in the tradition of Bennett McCallum, which is one reason why he’s my favorite young macroeconomist... Like McCallum, Basil Halperin seems to have absorbed both the best of New Keynesian...
Trump Reportedly to Sign Orders Aimed at Lowering Beef Prices
President Donald Trump is poised to sign two executive orders aimed at lowering beef prices for American consumers. One order would temporarily suspend the tariff‑rate quota on beef imports, effectively reducing tariffs once import volumes reach a set threshold. The...
Old Wall Bets Inflation Slowing Ahead of CPI
The Old Wall is running for the "inflation is slowing" exits, the day before CPI prints. Thanks for coming out
Labor Share Climbed 1950‑2000, Then Plummeted
If we use a net measure of the labor share, we see that the labor share ROSE from the 1950s until around the year 2000, and then began to collapse.
Dollar Edges Marginally Higher, and and Equities Withstand Hawkish Language By Trump
The U.S. dollar edged higher on May 11, gaining 0.1%‑0.4% against major peers despite President Trump’s hawkish language on the Iran standoff. U.S. equity indices nudged up 0.1%‑0.2%, showing resilience amid the geopolitical chatter. Commodity markets reacted sharply, with WTI crude...
U.S. Loses Narrative Control, Not Iran, in Middle East
The real story in the Middle East isn’t Iran, it’s the collapse of America’s ability to control the conversation. #iranwar #geopolitics https://t.co/O1zF2WSdCN
Defining Shipping Normalization Amid Strait of Hormuz Uncertainty
Shipping normalization and Strait of Hormuz stability. When will it happen? How will normalization be defined?
Democrats Coons, Fetterman Back Warsh Fed Nomination
Two Democrats, Coons and Fetterman, voted yes on the motion to proceed with Warsh's Fed nomination.
CPI Test Will Challenge Chip Rally Amid War‑driven Inflation
Is the stock market really immune as the US-Iran war fuels inflation? Incoming US CPI data will test if the narrow chip stocks rally can continue to ignore economic headwinds. #StockMarket #stockmarkets #IranWar #cpi #macro #dollar #trading https://t.co/LImbMLZv4B
Lithium Prices Jump 24%, Signaling Commodity Supercycle
Lithium carbonate prices have SURGED over 24% in the past month, reaching their highest level since 2023. As I’ve said, "We're entering a commodity supercycle. I like lithium and vanadium.” STAY LONG or GET LONG. https://t.co/esoCtb8RoX
Is China’s Reserve Shift Real Insight or Overfit?
Question for @EtraAlex and other students of the TIC data. Is this overfitting to the last known data point, or valuable new insight into where China's reserve holdings appear now that it is minimizing the use of US...