Know What's Happening in Global Economy
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Global Economy Pulse
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Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
UK fintech funding plunges 21% as rates hit 5.25%
Fintech investment in the UK fell 21% in 2025, driven by the Bank of England’s base rate climbing to 5.25%. Higher rates made government bonds more attractive, pulling capital from venture funds and limiting contributions from pension schemes, while softer consumer spending and loan demand pressured fintech valuations.
The World Bank lowered its 2026 growth projection for sub‑Saharan Africa to 4.1%, unchanged from 2025 but down from the 4.4% forecast made in October. The downgrade reflects the fallout from the Iran‑Israel war, which has pushed up fuel and fertilizer prices and strained investment flows. Debt service burdens have risen to roughly 18% of government revenues, leaving many countries with limited fiscal space. The outlook also warns of weaker Gulf investment and remittance inflows as the conflict persists.
Critical minerals such as copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare earths are essential for electric vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines, and demand is projected to double by 2030. The United States, fearing China’s dominance in refining, launched Project Vault,...
Despite a newly announced two‑week US‑Iran ceasefire, Iran’s steel production is unlikely to rebound quickly. Air strikes in late March severely damaged Mobarakeh Steel and Khuzestan Steel, forcing both plants—combined capacity about 14 million tonnes per year—to halt output for months....
The Southern African Institute of Steel Construction (SAISC) warns that newly imposed anti‑dumping tariffs on selected steel imports are already prompting merchants to cancel or delay orders. While the tariffs aim to protect domestic producers, SAISC says the sudden rise...
Mortgage applications slipped 0.8% last week as the Mortgage Bankers Association reported a modest decline in activity. The 30‑year fixed rate eased to 6.51% from 6.57%, reflecting a near‑10‑basis‑point drop in the 10‑year Treasury after a cease‑fire in the Middle...
{"summary":"GB News host Alex Armstrong argues that the current geopolitical conflict is less about Iran and more about reshaping the global order in America’s favor, citing U.S. control over oil flows to China and Europe’s new dependence on American energy....
The Center for Economic and Policy Research expects the March 2026 Consumer Price Index to spike sharply, driven primarily by a surge in gasoline prices. Food costs and higher import prices are also slated to lift the headline rate, while...
Wall Street rallied sharply after the United States and Iran announced a two‑week ceasefire that reopens the Strait of Hormuz, sending U.S. crude prices down about 16 percent. S&P 500 futures jumped 2.7%, Dow futures 2.6% and Nasdaq futures 3.4%...
Iran’s brief strategic victory in the US‑Israel truce is shadowed by a shattered economy after weeks of strikes. Damage to factories, power plants, railways and key petrochemical sites, combined with soaring inflation and a 40% price jump, has pushed millions...
President Xi Jinping announced a renewed emphasis on China’s services sector, urging a demand‑driven, technology‑focused growth model. The strategy aims to rebalance the economy away from export‑led manufacturing toward higher‑value services such as finance, health, and digital platforms. Officials highlighted...
On April 7, the United States, Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, halting attacks and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The truce is hailed as a short‑term victory but leaves unresolved issues such as Iran’s nuclear...
India’s Department of Commerce and DGFT have launched a coordinated multi‑ministry response to export disruptions caused by tensions in the Hormuz Strait. Measures include the CBIC’s “Back to Town” procedure, waivers on storage and reefer charges at JNPT, and extended...
Dan van der Vat’s *The Dardanelles Disaster* revisits the World War I attempt to force the Turkish strait open, illustrating how geography can outwit even the most powerful militaries. The book, written by a veteran journalist‑historian, shows the catastrophic gap...
Mortgage demand slipped for the first time in over a year as applications to purchase a home fell 7% year‑over‑year and refinance requests dropped 4% YoY. The average 30‑year fixed‑rate contract slipped to 6.51% from 6.57%, but remains above the...
🚨Iran demands fees for ships passing Hormuz during ceasefire🚨 This 'agreement' will confirm Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz 1️⃣Iran has ZERO authority to monitor what sails into or out of the Persian Gulf 2️⃣The requirement to sail through Iranian waters...
The United States and Iran agreed to a temporary cease‑fire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which triggered a sharp market reversal on Wednesday. Oil benchmarks tumbled about 15% to just under $100 a barrel, while Asian equities surged—Nikkei up 5.4%...
Vietnam’s National Assembly unanimously elected Communist Party General Secretary To Lam as president, giving him the same authority once held by Xi Jinping in China. Lam will steer a $200 bn construction spree that includes a new stadium, high‑speed rail and an $8.1 bn...
The IMF’s new research shows wars cause deep, lasting economic damage, shrinking output by roughly 7% over five years. The study finds these losses linger for more than a decade, outpacing impacts from financial crises or natural disasters. Simultaneously, global...
The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank issued coordinated alerts that the war in the Middle East will tighten oil supplies, lift worldwide inflation and dampen global economic expansion in 2026, raising recession risks.
The Pentagon is launching a coordinated effort to reduce U.S. reliance on China’s near‑monopoly over rare earth element (REE) refining. By channeling funding into domestic mining projects like California’s Mountain Pass and partnering with private firms, the defense department aims...
Bitcoin surged above $72,000 following a two‑week U.S.–Iran ceasefire, sparking a broad risk‑on rally across global markets. Oil prices plunged under $100 a barrel, while stock futures and other risk assets rallied sharply. The move reversed weeks of crypto being...
India's Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has presented a 20‑point policy agenda to the government and the Reserve Bank of India to mitigate the fallout from the Iran‑West Asia war. The plan calls for coordinated fiscal, financial and trade actions,...
After 39 days of conflict, a two‑week cease‑fire between the United States and Iran was announced, with President Trump touting a victory. The agreement, largely based on a 10‑point Iranian proposal, reopens the Strait of Hormuz, hints at lifting long‑standing...
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warned that the United States‑China relationship is the single most critical factor for global stability as the world enters a "dangerous new era." He highlighted the escalating war on Iran and its ripple effects on the...
Investors are crafting a new “Trump trade” playbook after Donald Trump’s cease‑fire pledge in the Iran war, focusing on higher‑for‑longer oil prices, currency shifts, and bond market mispricings. Oil futures trade around $79, with analysts expecting a floor near $85...
Oil fell below $100 a barrel after President Donald Trump announced a two‑week ceasefire with Iran, promising a safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent settled at $91.80 and WTI at $92.62, while European diesel dropped 20.8 percent to $1,210.50...
The conditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after President Donald Trump’s cease‑fire announcement has eased market panic, but shipping remains far from normal. Roughly 800 vessels with more than 20,000 crew members are still stranded in the Persian Gulf....
The cease‑fire in the Iran‑Israel conflict has eased the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a 15% drop in oil and gas prices and a rally in equity markets. Over the past six weeks, roughly 800 vessels were stranded,...
The United States and Japan are partnering with the Philippines to develop its vast critical‑minerals deposits and cut reliance on China. A CNAS report highlights the Philippines’ fourth‑largest copper and fifth‑largest nickel reserves, plus roughly $1 trillion in untapped gold, zinc...
Iran and the US are considering imposing tolls on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, challenging the UN Law of the Sea's free passage principle. Oman opposes the tolls, raising legal and economic concerns that could impact global maritime norms...
New US tariffs implemented in 2025 raised the effective rate by 8.1 percentage points, leading to an estimated 4.2% drop in EU‑US exports after accounting for front‑running effects. While Irish pharmaceutical shipments temporarily boosted trade, the overall impact was a modest...
The Kremlin is drafting a decree that would bar foreign‑owned container lines from calling at Russian ports unless they are majority Russian‑owned and prioritize sanctioned cargo. The draft specifically names CMA CGM, Maersk, OOCL and X‑Press Feeders as prohibited carriers. The...
President Donald Trump announced a two‑week ceasefire with Iran, pausing planned attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure and allowing coordinated safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The deal includes a controversial proposal for a $2 million toll on ships, which Iran...
The recent disruption of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel, inflating diesel, fertilizer and food costs in vulnerable African economies. At the same time, China announced zero‑tariff access for imports from 53 African countries,...
Hallgarten’s monthly resources review, authored by Christopher Ecclestone, warns that war has shattered the traditional safe‑haven narrative. Gold plunged about $1,000 per ounce and mining equities lost 30‑40%, while even copper slipped. The report links the price turmoil to a...
Taiwan's consumer price index rose 1.2% year‑on‑year in March, with core CPI climbing to 1.94%. Government price‑stabilisation kept gasoline at about NT$30.64 (≈$0.98) per litre, despite a 70% surge in OPEC oil prices. The import price index jumped 8.53%, the...
There's 2 pushbacks to the ceasefire: (i) it won't hold; (ii) spot oil prices (white) won't fall to futures (orange) soon. No! On (i), the signal is clear: the US wants this over. On (ii), oil tankers from the Gulf...
🧵 The US-Iran ceasefire is being called a "big day for world peace" — but the supply chain damage is already done. Here's what's broken, what it costs you, and how long it takes to fix. A thread on the...
The White House announced that bicycles, e‑bikes and frames will be exempt from the proposed Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs, and it also removed existing metal‑content duties on e‑bikes. The victory came after PeopleForBikes coordinated a campaign that generated more...
Long Covid predicted to cost OECD economies $135 billion a year https://t.co/4KeKqtPpWP via @ashleighfurlong https://t.co/LDMSBeZh3Y
Hormuz went from free passage to controlled chokepoint overnight, writes @JavierBlas That gives Iran real leverage now—but it also guarantees massive investment to bypass it. https://t.co/3R0l6Irxud #Energy #Geopolitics #Oil
The temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent fertilizer prices soaring 20‑45%, inflating costs for staple grains such as wheat, rice and maize. Experts warn that the chokepoint could shut again, exposing global food systems to recurring input shocks....
Oil is coming into a level of interest that has been support since the conflict began. $CL_F $USO It would not surprise me to see it find buyers in this area again as the conflict has not been solved just...
My take on Iran’s governmental organization with @CoffeeandaMike: “The way Iran is organized is very decentralized. With this kind of organizational structure, decapitation is bound to fail –– and it did fail in Iran.” https://t.co/nsee7XMejw
Nothing to see here. China adds to its gold reserves. The deglobalization toothpaste is already out of the tube — and the rush into neutral assets is only just beginning. https://t.co/oXGnVgwKfX https://t.co/VQE5YC3lrf
Most important chart in the world? Emerging markets broke out and tested their peak from 2007. So far, this important area is holding. Again, bullish action for the bull market we are in right now. https://t.co/cKNgzs56LA
The Fed’s Overton window appears to be changing. Recent speeches suggest a shift in thinking from supply-driven ample reserves to demand-driven liquidity. Details in my latest newsletter: https://t.co/pPOkB73y6o @vtg2 @NickTimiraos @Isabel_Schnabel @conksresearch https://t.co/RyKoxuTxMA
WASHINGTON, April 8 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said any country supplying Iran with military weapons will face immediate 50% tariffs with no exemptions, announcing the duty in a social media post one day after agreeing to...
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer promoted the creation of a US-China board of trade, while downplaying the possibility of a group focused on bilateral investment https://t.co/nnhzZxCmN4
The Brazilian Real today is strengthening sharply against the Dollar. $/BRL has fallen below where it was on Feb. 27, i.e. before the war with Iran began. The Real will now start a big strengthening cycle. Back to $/BRL fair...
