What's happening: U.S. Supreme Court overturns Trump tariffs, paving way for $130B in refunds
The Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariffs were unlawful, restoring congressional authority over trade barriers. The decision opens the door for importers to seek refunds of roughly $130 billion collected by the Treasury, with industry estimates of up to $175 billion in potential recoveries.
Also developing:

Juan S. González argues that U.S. security hinges on a stable Western Hemisphere, echoing Roosevelt’s Monroe‑Doctrine insight. He praises Secretary of State Marco Rubio for recognizing the need for proactive engagement but criticizes Rubio’s reliance on coercion and short‑term pressure. The piece highlights infrastructure—ports, energy, telecom—as the new battleground where China and other rivals are gaining footholds. González calls for rapid, commercial‑pace financing, regulatory clarity, and risk‑sharing partnerships that respect democratic norms to build durable, supply‑chain‑resilient ties across Latin America and the Caribbean.
The labor market showed signs of healing late in 2025 and in January. Catch up following long government shutdown helps alleviate ranks of those suffering temporary layoffs and forced to accept part instead of full-time jobs. Some healthy churn returned...
🚨 From Agent-1 to Superintelligence: The AI 2027 Scenario The AI 2027 Report outlines one of the most thought-provoking trajectories for artificial intelligence: a rapid evolution from simple assistants (Agent-1) to autonomous, adversarially misaligned systems (Agent-4) and ultimately to Agent-5 —...
Atlantic Council vice‑president and Scowcroft Center senior director Matthew Kroenig appeared on NPR on Feb. 11 to discuss the Trump administration’s ongoing negotiations with Iran. He outlined the limited progress of back‑channel talks aimed at reviving a nuclear agreement and highlighted...

On the surface a strong jobs report (130K jobs & unemployment falls to 4.3%). And just about every detail makes that stronger: participation up, involuntary part-time down, hours up, wages up. The mystery of strong GDP and weak jobs is being resolved...
The changes in the US over the last decade — rising inequality, massive deficits, and a shifting global outlook — are not isolated events. They are all interconnected and part of a dynamic that has occurred many times before for...

Retail finance leaders are grappling with volatile interest rates, persistent inflation, and a weakening dollar, which together strain cash flow and margin stability. To survive, finance teams must shift from reactive bookkeeping to proactive portfolio‑management tactics, using scenario modeling and...

Analytically, the January U.S. jobs report supports competing views. The market reaction, however, was clear: traders have sharply dialed back expectations for a June rate cut. The big beat on January job creation, paired with a dip in the unemployment rate...

The earnings boom has gone global, with estimates in both EAFE and EM showing good momentum. The blue squiggles show estimates for the S&P 500 and the pink ones are for the MSCI EAFE index. The days of significant divergences...

China has invoked its Export Control Law to ban dual‑use exports to Japan and tighten rare‑earth licensing, signaling a new escalation in its diplomatic dispute with Tokyo. The move follows a broader trend of Beijing building offensive economic statecraft tools,...

Tepid response of the Dollar to a big upside surprise in payrolls. The whisper number for consensus was weak, so this was a solid beat, yet USD is barely able to rise. We're on our way to the correlation switch...
Two major coal developments in the last 24 hours. 1. White House announcing purchases and support to revive the industry 2. Indonesia just ordered the world's largest nickel mine to sharply cut output. They are also looking to cut coal production by...

In this episode, Mahesh Bhimalingam of Bloomberg Intelligence and Ashwin Palta of BNY Investments discuss the Bloomberg Intelligence 1Q26 Investor Survey, highlighting the continued resilience of credit and high‑yield markets despite recent tariff shocks and rate volatility. They examine why...

A growing chorus of workers, researchers, and public figures warn that artificial intelligence could permanently eliminate millions of jobs. MIT researchers estimate current AI systems can automate tasks performed by over 20 million American workers, roughly 12 % of the labor force,...

Oatly has lost a UK Supreme Court ruling that bars the company from trademarking or using the phrase “post‑milk generation” in its marketing, after Dairy UK argued that the term “milk” should be reserved for animal‑derived products. The court affirmed earlier...

This formidable earnings growth has allowed valuations to take a back seat for a change. While the 5-year CAPE ratio is up there at 32x, the n12m P/E multiple doesn’t seem too onerous at 22x, considering not only the earnings...

NFP BREAKDOWN : Unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% while headline number crushed the expectations. In simple words , this was a much solid NFP all across the board. FED pause will continue. Profit taking in Gold , SPX , NASDAQ on reduced rate cut...
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the Russian Duma that only U.S. President Donald Trump has claimed India will cease buying Russian oil, and no Indian official has made such a statement. Lavrov highlighted India’s new BRICS chairmanship and its focus...
India has urged its state‑owned refiners to give priority to crude from the United States and Venezuela as part of a broader effort to diversify supplies and reduce reliance on Russian oil. The government’s suggestion applies to spot‑market tenders for...

New ONS data shows that 32.7% of UK retailers report rising export costs since Brexit, while US tariff changes further strain margins. Export volumes fell for 40.6% of retailers in December, and paperwork burdens rose for over a quarter of...
The U.S. Treasury issued a general license for Venezuelan oil and gas exploration that explicitly excludes Russian and Chinese entities, tightening restrictions on Moscow’s energy interests. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia will seek clarification from Washington to protect its substantial...

Chinese local governments announced a suite of stimulus measures ahead of the longest Lunar New Year break, extending the holiday to nine days. The central government allocated 2.05 billion yuan in vouchers, red‑envelopes and subsidies to directly benefit consumers. January's consumer...
Indonesia ordered the world’s largest nickel mine, PT Weda Bay, to cut its ore quota from 42 million tonnes to 12 million tonnes for 2024, aiming to tighten global supply. The LME nickel price rose 2 percent to $17,835 a tonne, extending a rally of...
https://t.co/k2T7oPbMh8 In an interview with CNBC on Monday (February 9, 2026), Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, advised markets to expect "slightly smaller job numbers" in the coming months. These remarks, have led many to speculate that the January...

Moldova announced its formal exit from the Commonwealth of Independent States, signaling a decisive break from a key Russian‑linked institution. At the same time, Chişinău is accelerating its integration with the European Union under President Maia Sandu’s pro‑Western agenda. Public...

The episode examines the current economic turbulence on Main Street, highlighting widespread layoffs and soft retail sales, while contrasting this with TSMC's explosive growth in the tech sector. It also explores the impact of a new AI-driven tax‑management tool that...

Petrol prices in Northern Ireland have fallen to 124.2 pence per litre, the lowest level in five years, while diesel holds steady at 131.9 pence. The decline follows a global oil oversupply and easing geopolitical tensions after the 2022 price spike triggered...
Good morning and welcome to Jobs Report Day in the US. The consensus forecasts are for a monthly employment gain of 65,000, an unemployment rate of 4.4%, and a 3.7% annual increase in average hourly earnings. As we head into this release,...

Trump says lower rates would save "at least one trillion dollars per year." The federal government's entire annual net interest bill was $970 billion in fiscal 2025—and much of that is locked in at rates on previously issued debt that...

The episode examines the growing divergence between China’s onshore stock markets and Hong Kong’s offshore market, arguing that this split reflects a deepening mistrust of Xi Jinping’s political control over finance. While mainland indices appear stable, the offshore market is...

#NFPs beat expectations by the most in 10 months - a 130K vs 40K expected. That said, revisions aggregated through 2025 have lowered the year's total by over 1 million https://t.co/p1pkqEWC57
My menchies show a lotta distrust about the official jobs numbers right now. Lemme be clear: I don't believe there's *any* political meddling in these numbers. While the President has tried to mess with the BLS, he failed. I explain in...
The India‑Chile free trade negotiations are moving toward a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement that explicitly includes critical minerals such as lithium, copper, and cobalt. Chile’s abundant reserves could supply India’s “Make in India” and clean‑energy ambitions, while recent moves by...

Every year the BLS does a benchmark revision which incorporates new and more detailed information. This year's revision suggests that 2025 was a far worse year than earlier estimates suggested, and total job growth was less than half that suggested...

First positive manufacturing payrolls in a very long time, private payrolls surging, UR down. The economy is re-accelerating https://t.co/sbUBFBA4SA

In this episode Gopi Krishna Bhamidipati examines how the Trump administration’s diplomatic interventions in 2025‑2026 produced ceasefires across Gaza, the Israel‑Iran clash, India‑Pakistan tensions, the Thailand‑Cambodia border dispute, and Ukraine‑Russia, but stopped short of achieving lasting political settlements. The host...

The U.S. job market is very unbalanced right now. One sector more than accounts for all jobs growth over the past year. The rest of the economy is shedding jobs. https://t.co/EGsnQj04uA

#NKWatch🇰🇵: Today, I measure North Korea’s inflation at 74.6%/yr. This makes North Korea the WORLD'S THIRD-HIGHEST INFLATOR. SUPREME LEADER KIM JONG UN = KILLING NORTH KOREA'S ECONOMY. https://t.co/iTKJhtxWvr

China’s central bank set the yuan’s daily fixing at 6.9438 per dollar, the strongest level in 33 months, as the currency continued to appreciate. Offshore trading pushed the yuan to 6.909 per dollar, reflecting a broader rotation out of US...
Jan jobs data better than expected and benchmark revision more or less in line. Unemployment rate ticks lower. $USD jump sold into quickly. Mkt still pricing in around two cuts this year.

Payrolls rose a very healthy +130k in January, and unemployment fell a tick to 4.3 percent. Revisions subtracted -17k from the past two months, so not much there. This is the healthiest jobs report we've seen in a while. Keep your fingers...

South Korean carrier HMM posted a Q4 2025 net profit of KRW 364 billion, a 59.9% plunge from the prior period, while revenues fell 14.2% to KRW 2.71 trillion. The full‑year results showed a 50.3% profit drop to KRW 1.88 trillion as container freight rates slumped 49%...

Glad to welcome @BIS_org General Manager Pablo Hernández de Cos back to the @ecb today. We had a good discussion on the latest economic developments. https://t.co/NiOrDgbMRV

#CubaWatch 🇨🇺: Thanks to Trump’s blockade, Cuba can no longer supply jet fuel to international airlines. Stay tuned. https://t.co/I5GxUM3wGq

French wine and spirit exporters recorded their steepest decline since the pandemic, with total sales falling 7.9% to €14.3 billion in 2025. Wine shipments slipped 4.1% while spirits plunged 17.4%, driven by a 23.8% collapse in cognac exports. The downturn reflects...

“I think Greenland was a wake-up call. There is more talk [in Brussels] about replacing one dependency with another.” This is what I told the Wall Street Journal about Europe’s increasing dependence on US LNG following the end of Russian...

$USD is soft ahead of the delayed jobs report. Japanese markets were closed for a national holiday, but the dramatic short squeeze of $JPY continued. WTI is up ~2% as the US-Iran confrontation seems near a climax. ...

A new report shows that global electricity demand will increase at an average annual rate of 3.6% between 2026 and 2030. Emerging economies will account for nearly 80% of additional electricity consumption through 2030. More here: https://t.co/ZtTGSlWOMx https://t.co/dw82OPRKGw
India’s government is considering raising the foreign direct investment (FDI) cap for banks from 20% to 49%. SMART MOVE. MORE FDI = MORE BANK CAPITAL = MORE LENDING CAPACITY https://t.co/agaPK9vbzO

Nigeria’s inflation rate is DOUBLE NGA’s inflation target at 15.29%/yr. Nigeria’s money supply is growing at 15.19%/yr, ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~11.83%-14.83%/yr, a rate consistent with Nigeria’s 6%-9%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/367h7H4ytf