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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
UK fintech funding plunges 21% as rates hit 5.25%
Fintech investment in the UK fell 21% in 2025, driven by the Bank of England’s base rate climbing to 5.25%. Higher rates made government bonds more attractive, pulling capital from venture funds and limiting contributions from pension schemes, while softer consumer spending and loan demand pressured fintech valuations.
Ocean carriers are awaiting concrete guidance from the United States and Iran on safely navigating the Strait of Hormuz after a two‑week cease‑fire was brokered between Washington and Tehran. Iran pledged to permit shipping but has yet to release the operational details needed for vessel coordination. The agreement also includes a proposed $2 million toll per transit, to be split with Oman, adding a financial layer to the clearance process. Industry participants are watching for the technical roadmap that will determine when and how commercial traffic can resume.
Greg Jericho argues that Australia is not in a recession yet, but rising oil prices and lingering inflation keep the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on edge. A recent dip in oil prices after Donald Trump’s remarks temporarily eased pressure,...
Geopolitical conflict involving the U.S., Israel and Iran has forced Iran to shut the Strait of Hormuz, removing roughly 12 million barrels per day—about 12% of global oil supply. The disruption pushed Brent crude to $119.50 a barrel, the highest level since...
Poland’s Monetary Policy Council is expected to keep its main policy rate at 3.75% through the end of 2024 as global uncertainty and a lingering energy shock persist. Despite a weaker-than-expected pass‑through of oil price hikes to domestic fuel costs...
Steve Keen has a track record of predictions and almost all of them point to the same thing - global crash worse than 2008 is coming (2026) - private debt at 170% of GDP will trigger it - deflation will destroy demand, not inflation -...
Forget US Treasuries, Chinese bonds are the new safe-haven trade Since the start of the war, foreigners have: - Dumped $82B of Treasuries - Piled into panda bonds The math makes sense: - US 10-year yield: 4.4% - China 10-year yield: 1.8% In the midst of the...
A two‑week ceasefire between the United States, Israel and Iran triggered a sharp drop in European gas prices (about 20%) and pushed Brent crude down to roughly $93‑$95 per barrel, down from $100 during the conflict. The deal includes Iran’s...
China is weathering the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran better than most of its neighbors, keeping its oil imports stable while cautiously probing profit opportunities. Beijing is monitoring strategic missteps by other powers and positioning itself to secure discounted energy deals....
Hapag‑Lloyd warned that even after the U.S.–Iran ceasefire, a full return to normal Gulf shipping could take six to eight weeks. The carrier may start limited bookings to the upper Gulf in the coming days, but it needs security assurances...
The Atlantic Council cited a Reuters interview in which former Pentagon official Michael Lipsky warned that China is deepening its partnership with Iran, supplying components that enable Tehran's expanding drone and missile programs. Lipsky also noted that President Trump’s recent...
Investors cheered a two‑week cease‑fire between the United States and Iran, prompting a sharp rally in global stock markets and a pull‑back in oil prices. Iran’s foreign minister announced safe passage for vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, temporarily easing...
A joint report by the AfDB, AUC, UNDP and UNECA warns that the Middle East war‑driven surge in oil and fertiliser prices is straining African economies. Currency depreciation in 29 nations has raised debt‑service costs and made essential imports more...
A ceasefire in Iran was announced, prompting immediate market reactions. Treasury yields opened higher, preserving bullish gaps and compressing the Federal Reserve’s rate‑cut outlook from an 18‑month to a 15‑month horizon. Technical analysis identifies narrow 3‑5‑basis‑point target ranges for the...
The Trump administration has raised Section 232 tariffs to as high as 50% on pure steel, aluminum and copper products, with a 25% levy on derivative goods substantially made of those metals. Contractors say the impact will vary: some materials may...
Russian crude export revenues surged to about $2.02 billion per week, the highest level since June 2022, as global oil prices hit multi‑year highs. The rise was driven by a sharp increase in Urals prices above $116 a barrel and a narrowing...
A tentative two‑week ceasefire in Iran has eased geopolitical tension, causing crude oil prices to tumble, yet they remain above pre‑war levels. Analysts warn that damaged Gulf production facilities and blocked shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will keep fuel...
The World Bank lowered its 2026 growth projection for sub‑Saharan Africa to 4.1%, unchanged from 2025 but down from the 4.4% forecast made in October. The downgrade reflects the fallout from the Iran‑Israel war, which has pushed up fuel and...
Critical minerals such as copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare earths are essential for electric vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines, and demand is projected to double by 2030. The United States, fearing China’s dominance in refining, launched Project Vault,...
Despite a newly announced two‑week US‑Iran ceasefire, Iran’s steel production is unlikely to rebound quickly. Air strikes in late March severely damaged Mobarakeh Steel and Khuzestan Steel, forcing both plants—combined capacity about 14 million tonnes per year—to halt output for months....
The Southern African Institute of Steel Construction (SAISC) warns that newly imposed anti‑dumping tariffs on selected steel imports are already prompting merchants to cancel or delay orders. While the tariffs aim to protect domestic producers, SAISC says the sudden rise...
Mortgage applications slipped 0.8% last week as the Mortgage Bankers Association reported a modest decline in activity. The 30‑year fixed rate eased to 6.51% from 6.57%, reflecting a near‑10‑basis‑point drop in the 10‑year Treasury after a cease‑fire in the Middle...
{"summary":"GB News host Alex Armstrong argues that the current geopolitical conflict is less about Iran and more about reshaping the global order in America’s favor, citing U.S. control over oil flows to China and Europe’s new dependence on American energy....
The Center for Economic and Policy Research expects the March 2026 Consumer Price Index to spike sharply, driven primarily by a surge in gasoline prices. Food costs and higher import prices are also slated to lift the headline rate, while...
Wall Street rallied sharply after the United States and Iran announced a two‑week ceasefire that reopens the Strait of Hormuz, sending U.S. crude prices down about 16 percent. S&P 500 futures jumped 2.7%, Dow futures 2.6% and Nasdaq futures 3.4%...
Iran’s brief strategic victory in the US‑Israel truce is shadowed by a shattered economy after weeks of strikes. Damage to factories, power plants, railways and key petrochemical sites, combined with soaring inflation and a 40% price jump, has pushed millions...
President Xi Jinping announced a renewed emphasis on China’s services sector, urging a demand‑driven, technology‑focused growth model. The strategy aims to rebalance the economy away from export‑led manufacturing toward higher‑value services such as finance, health, and digital platforms. Officials highlighted...
On April 7, the United States, Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, halting attacks and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The truce is hailed as a short‑term victory but leaves unresolved issues such as Iran’s nuclear...
India’s Department of Commerce and DGFT have launched a coordinated multi‑ministry response to export disruptions caused by tensions in the Hormuz Strait. Measures include the CBIC’s “Back to Town” procedure, waivers on storage and reefer charges at JNPT, and extended...
Dan van der Vat’s *The Dardanelles Disaster* revisits the World War I attempt to force the Turkish strait open, illustrating how geography can outwit even the most powerful militaries. The book, written by a veteran journalist‑historian, shows the catastrophic gap...
Mortgage demand slipped for the first time in over a year as applications to purchase a home fell 7% year‑over‑year and refinance requests dropped 4% YoY. The average 30‑year fixed‑rate contract slipped to 6.51% from 6.57%, but remains above the...
🚨Iran demands fees for ships passing Hormuz during ceasefire🚨 This 'agreement' will confirm Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz 1️⃣Iran has ZERO authority to monitor what sails into or out of the Persian Gulf 2️⃣The requirement to sail through Iranian waters...
Russia Oil Export Revenues Hit Highest Since Early Ukraine War as Prices Surge, Despite Ukrainian Port Attacks. Trump lifting sanctions gives Putin revenue for Ukraine war. https://t.co/j3gLWruMFo
The United States and Iran agreed to a temporary cease‑fire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which triggered a sharp market reversal on Wednesday. Oil benchmarks tumbled about 15% to just under $100 a barrel, while Asian equities surged—Nikkei up 5.4%...
The Strait of Hormuz appeared to remain largely blocked on Wednesday, as shipowners try to understand if they can safely transit the vital waterway following a ceasefire between the US and Iran that was announced overnight https://t.co/zdoetY8L6Y
Since we now live in a reflexive world where policy is often set based on price signals, you could make the argument that market structure and positioning can drive policy. Market positioning was primed to see a relief rally and...
Vietnam’s National Assembly unanimously elected Communist Party General Secretary To Lam as president, giving him the same authority once held by Xi Jinping in China. Lam will steer a $200 bn construction spree that includes a new stadium, high‑speed rail and an $8.1 bn...
Trump just threatened tariffs over Iran but also he doesn't have the authority to levy such tariffs. So there's that. Just astonishing we have to deal with this bullshit artist.
Look forward to discussing this risk-on market post the Iran ceasefire news and what this means for the oversold tech sector looking ahead on @CNBCClosingBell at 3:35 pm with @ScottWapnerCNBC @CNBC 🏆🍿📺🎯🐂
The IMF’s new research shows wars cause deep, lasting economic damage, shrinking output by roughly 7% over five years. The study finds these losses linger for more than a decade, outpacing impacts from financial crises or natural disasters. Simultaneously, global...
It's the Dollar versus EM that's been the key leading indicator for USD direction and that's now tumbling (black). We're in a new regime for the Dollar and are going back to the 2010-2013 period, when Dollar weakness was primarily...
UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on how Trump is damaging Uncle Sam's reputation: "Where this war really matters is how the US uses its power. The Trump administration... [is] undermining international law... international institutions and damaging its relations with allies." https://t.co/alLAlZkar7
The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank issued coordinated alerts that the war in the Middle East will tighten oil supplies, lift worldwide inflation and dampen global economic expansion in 2026, raising recession risks.
The prediction markets have shifted from assessing when the US-Iran will reach their ceasefire to 'When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal': https://t.co/86UZblCs7z
Getting back into the high and abrupt tariff implementation game. Threatening a 50% tariff (on goods sold to the US) on any country that supplies military weapons to Iran. That seems like it can get closer to a Section 232 approval...
The Dollar is tumbling as I forecast in my posts predicting a ceasefire. USD will now unwind all its rise from the past month, which was entirely due to short-term safe haven flows that'll now reverse. We're back to Dollar...
🧵 The US-Iran ceasefire is being called a "big day for world peace" — but the supply chain damage is already done. Here's what's broken, what it costs you, and how long it takes to fix. A thread on the...
Long Covid predicted to cost OECD economies $135 billion a year https://t.co/4KeKqtPpWP via @ashleighfurlong https://t.co/LDMSBeZh3Y
Hormuz went from free passage to controlled chokepoint overnight, writes @JavierBlas That gives Iran real leverage now—but it also guarantees massive investment to bypass it. https://t.co/3R0l6Irxud #Energy #Geopolitics #Oil
Oil is coming into a level of interest that has been support since the conflict began. $CL_F $USO It would not surprise me to see it find buyers in this area again as the conflict has not been solved just...
My take on Iran’s governmental organization with @CoffeeandaMike: “The way Iran is organized is very decentralized. With this kind of organizational structure, decapitation is bound to fail –– and it did fail in Iran.” https://t.co/nsee7XMejw
