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Every morning
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Foreign investors hold over $35 trillion in U.S. assets amid market turbulence
Foreign investors now control more than $35 trillion in U.S. stocks and bonds, up from roughly $31 trillion a year earlier. Despite the April 2025 tariff‑driven market dip, they added about $1.5 trillion in net purchases, signaling continued confidence in the U.S. financial system.
Sen. Edward J. Markey denounced President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs as a disaster for America’s small‑business sector. Implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the tariffs sharply raised import costs and disrupted supply chains for over 36 million firms. Markey argues the policy has led to higher prices, staffing cuts, and threatened the viability of many enterprises. He is now urging Congress to roll back the duties and provide targeted relief.
Learning Resources, a U.S. toymaker, purchased a month’s worth of low‑density polyethylene ahead of anticipated price spikes caused by the Iran‑Israel conflict. Prices for the plastic have risen up to 55% in China, Vietnam and India, and supply shortages are...
Iran's Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters' Union announced that any oil tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz during a two‑week cease‑fire must pay a toll of $1 per barrel in Bitcoin. Ship owners must email cargo details, receive a...
President Trump announced that U.S. bombers had destroyed roughly 1,000 pounds of Iran’s enriched uranium and pledged to assist in cleaning up the resulting “nuclear dust.” The claim follows a fragile cease‑fire that is already unraveling as Iran resumes missile and...
On April 7 the United States and Iran signed a conditional two‑week ceasefire that promised a “complete, immediate and safe opening” of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, however, has made clear it will only permit vessels through if Israel halts its...
Overnight markets swung wildly, with the agriculture sector, energy stocks and the US dollar all posting steep losses, while US equities opened the day on a strong note. The swing followed a newly‑brokered two‑week cease‑fire between the United States and...
President Donald Trump announced a two‑week cease‑fire with Iran, prompting a rapid market rebound dubbed “TACO Tuesday.” The $1.5 trillion rally lifted the Nasdaq 3.55%, the S&P 500 2.7% and the Dow 2.6%, while oil prices dropped 16% to just under $100...
The FuelEU UCOME‑MGO abatement price turned negative on 7 April, reaching roughly –$25.8 per tonne CO₂e after the US‑Iran war pushed fossil‑fuel prices to record highs. ICE gasoil futures hit an all‑time $1,569.75 per tonne, eroding the traditional green premium for...
The private credit sector, once touted as a stable, yield‑focused alternative to traditional bonds, is now confronting a wave of redemption requests and asset‑valuation challenges. In March and April 2026, several large funds—including Apollo, Ares, Barings, and Blue Owl—capped or...
Hyundai Motor Co. is rerouting its cargo ships around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope to bypass the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran‑Israel conflict, adding several weeks of lead time. The automaker has shifted to weekly supply‑chain meetings and higher...
Economic signals flashing red: US shed 92k jobs in February (vs +60k forecast), unemployment to 4.4%. Potential NATO withdrawal, Iran no-deal exit imminent. Root issue: Post-WWII dollar supplanting pound inflated currency, favoring finance over manufacturing - 80 years running. Current policies...
March's Fed minutes show broad support for a patient approach to forthcoming rate decisions, but splintering views over what the biggest risk from the Iran war will be. A vast majority of policymakers now expect slower progress toward the 2%...
Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT) chair Cheng Li‑wun led a delegation to Beijing from April 7‑12, meeting President Xi Jinping in the first KMT visit to China in a decade. Beijing framed the trip as a chance to promote the 1992 Consensus and argue...
Outstanding day for LatAm today. War ending or not… one thing seems highly likely: None of the major tech companies will go out of their way to allocate capital toward building new data centers or large-scale facilities in the Middle East anytime...
The Fed minutes showed "the vast majority" of officials thought inflation progress could be slower than expected, driven by three overlapping concerns: tariff effects on goods prices that may take longer to fade, oil prices bleeding into core inflation, and...
In this episode of FX Moment, Chief FX Strategist Audrey Charles Freeman and Chief UK Economist Dan Hansen examine how the recent US‑Iran cease‑fire announcement is easing market sentiment and reshaping the outlook for sterling. They argue that the war‑driven...
10Y–2Y yield curve keeps grinding lower, but the type of flattening has shifted from “bear” (short rates up) to “bull” (long rates getting bid). That suggests the bond market is growing more cautious about US economic growth, while the Fed...
Suriname’s offshore Block 58 is gaining momentum as the 2026 global oil shock pushes buyers toward non‑Middle‑East sources. TotalEnergies says the $10.5 billion Gran Morgu project is 50% complete and aims for 220,000 barrels per day by 2028. The basin could hold up...
World Bank Group President Ajay Banga warned that the Iran war could add 0.9 percentage points of inflation and shave 0.4 percentage points off global growth, especially hurting emerging markets. He highlighted the Bank’s Crisis Response Windows, which let countries draw up...
U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced a two‑week cease‑fire, marking the first pause in hostilities since the Iran war began on Feb 28. Markets reacted with a dip in oil prices, yet experts warn that extensive...
Did markets know Trump's Iran strike halt 15 minutes before he posted? $580 million in oil bets placed right then. Traders potentially gamed a war risking global famine for profit. Inside trading on a planetary scale? Check out my full breakdown. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrBNfVn8r60 TrumpIran...
The United States and Iran have agreed to a two‑week cease‑fire that pauses air and missile attacks and allows limited freight traffic through the Strait of Hormuz under military supervision. Iran’s 10‑point peace proposal, which includes lifting sanctions and recognition...
Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri inaugurated the India‑US Trade Facilitation Portal during a virtual event in Washington, marking a concrete step toward deepening commercial ties. The portal is designed to streamline interactions between Indian and American firms, reinforcing existing supply chains...
Iran warned that Israel's continued strikes in Lebanon jeopardize the fragile U.S.-mediated cease‑fire, threatening to reignite hostilities and potentially close the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Tehran’s senior security official said the violations raise the cost of the agreement for the...
U.S. equity markets surged more than 2% at midday on Wednesday as investors breathed relief from the newly announced two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The geopolitical de‑escalation helped lift risk appetite across Communication Services and Industrials, while...
Kenya ended its 24‑year COMESA sugar safeguard regime in November 2025, shifting to a duty‑free framework for COMESA and EAC partners while retaining licensing controls. Retail sugar prices fell to $1.28 per kilogram in March 2026, down from $1.42 in...
CoinShares research shows that roughly 14 million Iranians – about one in six of the population – now rely on Bitcoin to sidestep sanctions and a collapsing rial. Bitcoin transaction volume grew 11.8% year‑over‑year and now represents 2.2% of Iran’s GDP....
This has a 100% record. Every single time in the last 23 years that PMI has entered expansion, after contraction, it has signalled the start of a heavy risk on period for markets. I've used Russell 2000 here to take us back...
European leaders warned they could be on the hook for a costly operation to clear the Strait of Hormuz after President Trump announced a cease‑fire with Iran. France, Germany and the United Kingdom have pledged to escort ships and remove...
Hong Kong conglomerate CK Hutchison has initiated arbitration in London against Danish shipping giant A.P. Moller‑Maersk, accusing the carrier of breaching a contract by collaborating with Panama to replace Hutchison’s Panama Ports Company as operator of the Balboa terminal. The...
The Iran‑Israel conflict has pushed diesel, fertilizer and shipping costs higher, nudging U.S. produce prices upward. USDA data shows tomatoes, bananas and onions have risen since the war began, while the UN’s food price index climbed 2.4% in March. Experts...
The U.S. dollar on Wednesday fell to a two-year low against the Brazilian real, down about 19% from its Dec. 2024 peak. Applying this to CBOT soybean prices: 🇺🇸Beans (USD) are up 11% from this same week last year 🇧🇷Beans (BRL) are...
The central banks of the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have signed a five‑year currency swap agreement worth roughly $5.3 billion (BHD 2 billion or AED 20 billion). The pact is designed to provide mutual liquidity support, promote the use of local currencies in trade,...
The Strait of Hormuz May remain shut, the barrels of oil may remain firmly locked in. The ceasefire may not hold. But nobody will dare go long on crude futures. Because there will be yet another false dawn, and they will get...
Fuel Costs, Tariffs Cloud Outlook for U.S. Container Imports. Trump tariffs and Iran war. When and how may the war affect imports? https://t.co/OYGyucP66q
Alaska’s Senate passed a resolution urging the federal government to keep and strengthen the ban on Russian seafood imports that President Biden first imposed in 2022 and expanded in 2023. Lawmakers argue Russian subsidies and lax environmental standards keep fish...
Iran saying the US in breach of the ceasefire clauses. Says conditions for bilateral negotiations is unreasonable. I think it interesting that he went out of his way to call it a the President's 'Truth' (rather than social post)...
Whatever happened to America First? The 2025 US military budget is already $962 billion, the most in the world and more than the combined total of the next nine nations (China, $246 billion; Russia, $150 billion; Germany, $109 billion). From a newsletter...
The Reserve Bank of India warned that rising energy prices and a strong dollar could push the current account deficit (CAD) higher in FY27, after it widened to 1.3% of GDP in Q3 2025‑26. Net capital inflows fell short of...
A day filled with headlines about the ceasefire being violated, not holding, etc. has had almost no impact on stock prices. Futures still way up on the day. https://t.co/6JyGWIaWcl
The first round of US-Iran talks will take place Saturday in Islamabad, with the US negotiating team led by Vice President JD Vance, the White House said.
Canada now provides more than half of U.S. petroleum imports, delivering 4.42 million barrels per day, while traditional Middle‑East sources have dwindled to single‑digit shares. A surge in domestic output, especially from Texas and the Dakotas, has turned the United States...
Iran. Controlling the Strait of Hormuz. Permit a dozen ships a day. Clearing the backlog of ships stuck in the Strait and waiting to enter. How long to rest “normal”?
Ok let's review, Strait is back to closed, Israel is bombing Tehran and Lebanon, Iran is drone bombing Kuwait/Saudi pipelines/UAE, they are threatening to cancel Friday's meeting and the markets couldn't care less.
A new paper in the Journal of Post‑Keynesian Economics details how the US dollar became the world’s primary currency, largely thanks to a secret 1974 Saudi‑oil‑for‑Treasury‑bond pact that expired in 2024. The study argues that the petrodollar arrangement allowed the...
The Trump trade world is focused on making sure that software and e-commerce happens tariff-free. How does this boost of big tech help re-industrialize? Remember, if we are asking for stuff for Google, we are giving up stuff for people...
Next week's macro docket is nuts. The IMF will update its WEO; China Q1 GDP; Bank earnings start and the Fed Beige Book will inform the Apr 29 FOMC decision (among other many other listings). Are we going to be...
$HYG Daily. High Yield Corporate Bond ETF gapping up to 200-day moving average. With Fed Minutes today, then major macro rest of week, am watching to see late-cycle concerns reappear https://t.co/s1J9PRXCS5
Some catalysts over the next hour or so... 1pm ET - WH Press conference re: difference between Iran 10 and American 15 point plans 1:15pm - Netanyahu press conference re ceasefire 2pm - March FOMC minutes
The spike in fertiliser costs is not a food security problem in many nations (and particularly, in developing Asian countries). Instead, it's a fiscal shock problem for the governments subsidizing their consumption.
