Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as fuel cuts mask rising core inflation
Australia's consumer price index slowed to a 4.2% annual increase in April, below the 4.4% forecast, driven by a temporary fuel excise cut that lowered transport costs. However, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to maintain its inflation target.
UAE Sees Rapidly Growing Trade with Syria, as Ties Warm
UAE‑Syria non‑oil trade more than doubled in 2025, reaching a record $1.4 billion, a 132 % jump from the prior year, according to UAE trade minister Thani Al Zeyoudi at the inaugural Syrian‑Emirati Investment Forum. The two sides signed preliminary agreements on dozens of projects spanning tourism, construction, infrastructure, agriculture, aviation and logistics. Emirati real‑estate giant Emaar is evaluating opportunities worth up to $19 billion, while Etihad Airways will resume Abu Dhabi‑Damascus flights in June. The forum also set up a Syrian technical delegation to visit the UAE to flesh out implementation plans.
Daily Memo: India on Russian LNG, Brussels on Afghan Migrants
India has told Russia it will not buy Russian liquefied natural gas that falls under U.S. sanctions, a stance conveyed to Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin during his April 30 visit to New Delhi. The decision impacts at least one...
Fed in Wait-and-See Mode on Hot Inflation Report; Mortgage Rates to Track Oil Prices, Mideast Talks
April’s consumer price index showed a modest 0.6% month‑over‑month rise, taking the year‑over‑year headline rate to 3.8% as energy prices surged amid the Strait of Hormuz closure. Core CPI climbed 0.4% month‑over‑month to 2.8% year‑over‑year, with shelter costs accelerating sharply...
Pres. Trump: Ships Are Coming to Texas and Louisianna to Load up with Oil
President Trump highlighted a surge in oil shipments from Texas and Louisiana, framing it as a win for U.S. exporters and energy producers. While export volumes are climbing, the national average gasoline price has risen to $4.50 per gallon, up...
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Stock Market Today: Indexes Pull Back After Core CPI Hotter Than Expected; Oil Prices Rise on Tenuous US-Iran Ceasefire
U.S. equity indexes slipped Tuesday as April's core CPI rose to 2.8% year‑over‑year, beating the 2.7% consensus and nudging the Fed’s inflation battle into sharper focus. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq each fell between 0.6% and 0.8% in early trade....
Diplomacy Falters as Hormuz Crisis Edges Toward Escalation
President Donald Trump dismissed Iran’s latest reply to a U.S.-backed de‑escalation plan, deepening the diplomatic deadlock over the Strait of Hormuz. Both Washington and Tehran continue to signal willingness to negotiate on sanctions relief, uranium enrichment limits, and shipping freedoms,...
April CPI Spikes, Wages Lag Low‑income, Affluent Spend
CPI rose 0.6% in April after a 0.9% increase in March, the fastest two-month gain since May and June of 2022. The index surged 3.8% from a yr ago, 0.2% above wage gains for the month & the hottest pace...
Homeowner Insolvencies Surge to 2009 Crisis Levels
Why Are Bankruptcies & Insolvencies Growing So Fast? They Have Reached 2009 World Financial Crisis Levels Main Reasons: - The Collapse of Residential Real Estate - Growing Unemployment in Full Time Jobs - Inflation Destroys Affordability This will likely get much worse The most striking aspect...
West Asia Crisis a ‘Live Stress Test’ for India’s Balance of Payments, Says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran
India’s chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran warned that the West Asia crisis has become a live balance‑of‑payments stress test for the country, pressuring inflation, the current account and the rupee. He highlighted a 48% jump in Brent crude, a 500% surge...
Fuel‑price Shock Persists as SPR Nears Historic Low
Headline inflation increased 3.3 -> 3.8% in April, although Core PCE was 2.6 -> 2.8%. Trump authorized a 53MM bbl release from the SPR yesterday and said that he’ll suspend the federal fuel tax. But assuming that inflation is driven principally...
Inflation Shock: US Stock Futures Drop as Oil Surges Amid Middle East Tensions
U.S. stock futures opened lower as April CPI rose 3.8% YoY, slightly above expectations, pushing the 10‑year Treasury yield near 4.45%. The surge in oil prices—WTI at $101.60 and Brent at $107.70—was driven by stalled U.S.–Iran talks and concerns over...
Hotter-than-Expected CPI Sends Yields Climbing
U.S. consumer price data came in hotter than expected, with headline inflation rising 3.8% year‑over‑year and core CPI climbing 0.4% month‑over‑month, outpacing forecasts. The surprise pushed Treasury yields higher, bringing the 5‑year note within a basis point of its recent...
Energy Shock Sends U.S. Inflation to a Three-Year High
A sharp rise in oil prices has pushed U.S. inflation to its highest level in three years, with headline CPI climbing to 3.2% year‑over‑year and core CPI reaching 3.0%, the strongest pace since 2021. The surge is feeding through to...
Trump's Weakened Stance Meets China's US‑controlled Maritime Chokepoints
The FT says Trump arrives in Beijing weakened after losing the trade war and the Iran war. Maybe, writes @BenPicton1 But China still depends on seaborne oil, LNG, & food moving through maritime chokepoints dominated by U.S. naval power My take: does...
Convoluted US Inflation Report Won’t Answer Any Questions
Core CPI rose 0.4% month‑over‑month in April, the fastest increase since January 2025, and the year‑over‑year core rate ticked up to 2.8%, beating forecasts. The headline CPI climbed 0.64% MoM and 3.8% YoY, outpacing wage growth, while gasoline surged 5.4%...
Trump’s Cadre of CEOs Hunts for Wins in China, From Soybeans to Semiconductors
A diverse group of U.S. CEOs, including Apple’s Tim Cook, joined President Donald Trump on his state visit to China to pursue market access and stability across sectors from soybeans to semiconductors. The delegation aims to secure tariff relief, strengthen...
Inflation Contagion: April CPI Hits 3.8% as Energy Shock Bleeds Into Core
April 2026 CPI rose 3.8% year‑over‑year, matching forecasts, while core inflation edged up to 2.8% YoY. The report showed a 5.4% monthly jump in gasoline and a 2.8% rise in airline fares, signaling the energy shock is spilling into broader...
Xi’s Leverage Forces US to Rethink Taiwan Policy
FT says Xi now holds most of the cards ahead of the Trump meeting Liberation Day tariffs flopped once China’s critical mineral chokehold started shutting U.S. factories Now the Iran war fiasco has weakened Washington further EXPECT A REVISION OF THE US POSITION...
J.P. Morgan Private Bank Issues 2026 Mid-Year Outlook, Flagging Fragmentation, Inflation and AI
J.P. Morgan Private Bank released its 2026 Mid-Year Global Investment Outlook, "Promise and Pressure," outlining how geopolitical fragmentation, stubborn inflation and artificial intelligence are reshaping portfolios. The report cites soaring defense stocks, a 130% gold rally and low infrastructure exposure...
Energy Shock Drives Consumer Prices up 0.6% in April
U.S. consumer prices accelerated in April, with the CPI up 0.6% month‑over‑month and 3.8% year‑over‑year, driven largely by a sharp rebound in energy costs. Gasoline prices rose 5.4% after a 21.1% jump the prior month, keeping the energy index responsible...
Dollar Gains as Oil and CPI Lift Fed Hike Bets, but Risk Appetite Holds Firm
The dollar rose broadly as April CPI jumped to 3.8% YoY and core inflation to 2.8%, nudging Fed‑fund futures toward a 28% chance of another rate hike. Oil prices surged, with Brent above $107 and WTI over $100, driven by...
April Inflation Shoots 3.8% Higher on Surging Prices From War in Iran
U.S. consumer prices jumped 3.8% year‑over‑year in April 2025, largely driven by a surge in energy costs linked to the ten‑week war with Iran. Gasoline prices rose 5.4% from March and are now more than 28% higher than a year...
Fed Must Stay Restrictive Until Extra 13% Inflation Vanishes
Monetary policy should be restrictive until the 13% additional inflation we've had since January 2020 above the 2% trendline is erased. There's no point in having a 2% inflation target if you're not going to adhere to it. The Fed...
Webinar: Oil, Iran and the Markets: What Happens Next?
Ten weeks after the Iran‑Israel conflict erupted, oil markets remain volatile as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has not recovered. ING is hosting a 45‑minute webinar on 15 May to dissect how oil and natural‑gas prices could move under...
Post-Orban Hungary Turns Inward: Warmer on the EU, Cooler on Ukraine, No Break with Russia
Hungary’s new prime minister, Peter Magyar, inherits a public that wants closer ties with the EU but remains wary of a full break from Russia and of deepening military support for Ukraine. Polls by the European Council on Foreign Relations...
Botswana’s 2026 Growth Outlook Trimmed to 3.7% Amid Diamond Volatility and Fuel‑Price Inflation
Economist Keith Jefferis says Botswana’s GDP is likely to rise only 3.7% in 2026, down from the IMF’s 4.7% forecast, as diamond output volatility, a war‑driven fuel shock and inflation above 10% weigh on the economy. The outlook highlights the...
Higher‑than‑expected Inflation Dampens Fed Cut Hopes, Stay Cautious
Inflation (CPI) just came in at 3.8%, higher than expected. Last month’s CPI was 3.3%. Higher inflation reduces the odds of Fed rate cuts, which is bad for risk assets like stocks and crypto. Markets seem to be overlooking the negative impact of...
India Revises GDP Release Calendar, Annual and Q4 Figures Now Due on June 7
India’s National Statistics Office has shifted the annual provisional GDP release from the last working day of May to June 7, aligning the schedule with international best practices. The change, effective for FY 2025‑26, reflects delays in critical fiscal datasets and the...
More Hours, Lower Real Pay as Inflation Erodes Wages
Americans are trying to work more hours to keep up as gas and food prices rise. Even so, real average weekly earnings **Decreased** in April as inflation ate up all the wage gains and extra hours worked. Real weekly earnings for...
Treasury Yields Rise as Inflation Picks Up Speed
U.S. consumer prices rose 3.8% year‑over‑year in April, pushing core CPI to 2.8% and prompting Treasury yields to climb, with the 10‑year note reaching 4.43% and the two‑year at 3.97%. The stronger inflation reading fuels expectations of a more hawkish...
Core Services Inflation Spikes, Undermining Tariff‑only Narrative
The optimistic story on inflation has been that the recent firming has been tariff-led (which would show up in goods) and therefore won't be sustained as tariffs aren't going to ratchet higher year after year. The April CPI, in isolation, isn't...
Rising CPI Makes Rate Cuts Hard for New Fed Chair
Latest CPI report underscores how tough it will be for Warsh to deliver cuts once he takes over as Fed chair. Core CPI is up 0.4% in April, or 2.8% compared to the same time last year. This comes on...
The Market Is Steady/Doing Better Through the CPI Shock
The U.S. Consumer Price Index showed core inflation rising 0.4% month‑over‑month, beating the 0.3% forecast, while headline CPI matched expectations at 0.6%. Year‑over‑year, core CPI climbed to 2.8% versus a 2.7% estimate, and the headline rate held at 3.8%, keeping...
Russia Slashes 2026‑29 Growth Forecast, Holds Oil Price Steady
“Russia has cut its economic growth forecast for 2026 and the following three years but left unchanged the projected oil price despite the spike in global prices driven by the war in the Middle East, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak...
Iran Negotiates as Trump Seeks Exit, Shipping Bottleneck Worsens
Iran playing the negotiation game while Trump wants to get out of mess he made. And the ships stuck in the Strait and the supply shortages?
Poonam Gupta: Prosperous States for a Prosperous India
Poonam Gupta addressed the Columbia Indian Economy Summit 2026, outlining India’s accelerating economic growth over four decades. She highlighted that real GDP growth rose from 5.7% in the 1980s to 7.7% in the most recent four‑year period. Gupta then examined...
62 Months of High Inflation Undermines Fed Credibility
62. As in 62 consecutive months with US inflation above the Fed's 2% target. The Fed lost all credibility when it comes to fighting inflation. https://t.co/JG9GxNCk36
USTs Enter Depression Phase, Accept Potential Rate Hike Cycle
Looks like USTs are past denial, anger and bargaining, and well on their way to depression and acceptance of the possibility of a hike cycle.
Chinese Nationalists Cite Trump as Proof of East’s Rise
China increasingly casts itself as a superpower poised to surpass America.Chinese nationalists say they have Mr. Trump to thank. America under his rule,they say, validates Xi’s worldview centered on “the rise of the East and decline of the West.”My latest...
US CPI Climbs to 3.8% in April, Inflation Persists
The U.S. Consumer Price Index jumped from 3.3%/yr in March to 3.8%/yr in April. As I've been saying, the U.S. inflation genie is not going to be put back in the bottle any time soon. https://t.co/jCBH3ue3IK
April CPI Won’t Shift Fed, New Chair Faces Tough Odds
April CPI won't change minds at the Fed. But more of this will complicate the dovish case, which has already flipped away from arguing for cuts and towards arguing against toying with hikes. It's a tough inheritance for a new Fed...
Inflation Climbs to 3.8%, Energy Now Primary Driver
#Inflation finally takes a bite. Jumps to 3.8% as #energy replaces #tariffs as driver of higher prices. #realestate #CRE #Trump #Iran #StraitsofHormuz #gasoline #mortgage #interestrates #TheFed https://t.co/ygaDzZOIBU
Cautious Buyers Offset Global Oil Supply Shock
Astounding🤷♂️ 👉”US-led exports and China-led cautious buying patterns among importers have, in effect, been 💥shielding the world from the supply shock💥 👉“The actions of cautious buyers have therefore exceeded, by 4.1mn barrels a day, the 6.8mn net contraction of seaborne export supply...
April CPI Spikes to 3.8%, Fed Lagging Behind
US CPI Inflation Rate moved up to 3.8% in April, its highest level since May 2023. The Inflation Rate is now back above the Fed Funds Rate and CPI is likely headed above 4%. The Fed is once again behind...
UK 30-Year Gilt Yield Hits 1998 High
The yield on the UK 30-year gilt is at its highest level since 1998 https://t.co/zXuKq5q17b
Iran War Spikes Inflation to Three‑year High
It's Stupid's Economy > It's the Economy, Stupid. Iran war pushed inflation to highest rate in nearly three years https://t.co/VnDzjVJ3Os
Core CPI at 0.4% Could Yield 4.9% YoY
A Multipolar World - Got Hard Assets? CPI Core MoM: 0.4% vs 0.3% exp. If monthly CPI rises by 0.4% each month for the next 12 months and compounds, the year-over-year CPI inflation rate over 12 months would...
Fuel Oil Spikes 54%, Gasoline up 28% in Year
Price changes over last year (April CPI report) Fuel Oil: +54.3% Gasoline: +28.4% Electricity: +6.1% Transportation: +4.3% Apparel: +4.2% Overall CPI: +3.8% Food away from home: +3.6% Shelter: +3.3% Medical Care: +3.2% Gas Utilities: +3.0% Food at home: +2.9% New Cars: +0.2% Used Cars: -2.7%
Inflation Outpaces Wage Gains, Squeezing American Finances
JUST IN: Inflation is now eating up all wage gains for the first time in about three years. This is painful for Americans and a true financial squeeze. CPI Inflation in past year: 3.8% Wage gains: in past year: 3.6% https://t.co/dNa5VvS5DE
Inflation Surges Above Expectations in Latest Report
Latest inflation report just dropped, and it came in hot, and slightly hotter than most folks expected. https://t.co/TTvmbXLQ8r