Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as fuel cuts mask rising core inflation
The consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% forecast, helped by a temporary fuel excise cut that lowered transport costs. Meanwhile, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
The Different Effects of Oil and Gas Supply Shocks on Euro Area Inflation
A new study shows that gas supply shocks transmit to euro‑area consumer prices more broadly and persistently than oil shocks, a pattern first highlighted during the 2021‑22 energy crisis. The March 2026 price spike, while noticeable, is smaller than the 2021‑22 episode and occurs in a weaker growth environment, limiting its indirect inflationary impact. Empirical analysis of HICP data reveals that gas shocks generate larger spillovers to food, industrial goods and services, especially when overall inflation is already elevated. The findings suggest that the ECB must closely track second‑round effects as the shock evolves.
Trump-Xi Summit to Weigh US Energy Sales Amid Hormuz Crisis
The Trump‑Xi summit in Beijing will place U.S. energy sales at the top of the agenda, as Washington seeks to revive Chinese purchases of American oil, LNG and petrochemicals. Chinese imports of U.S. crude dropped to virtually zero after a...
Trump Puts Trade Ahead of Iran for Xi Summit Priorities
President Donald Trump announced that trade will dominate his upcoming May 14‑15 summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, explicitly stating that Iran will not be a primary discussion point. He claimed the United States has Iran "under control"...
It's Not Just Iran and Oil Raising Inflation. Prices Also Are Reaccelerating in These Other Areas
The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.6% in April, lifting the 12‑month inflation rate to 3.8%, the fastest pace in nearly three years. While higher oil prices tied to the Iran conflict remain a headline driver, price gains are spreading...
Inflation: No Quick Fix
In this episode of Inside Economics, Mark Zande, Chris Dorides, and Matt Collier dissect the latest CPI report, noting a 0.6% month‑over‑month rise in headline inflation and a 3.8% year‑over‑year rate—the highest since early 2023—driven largely by energy and food...
US Finalises Tariff Refunds of $35.5 Billion
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection has finalized $35.46 billion in tariff refunds, including interest, for shipments affected by tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump that a court ruled illegal. CBP validated 86,874 of 126,237 refund applications, covering 15.1 million entries,...
Indonesia Delays Nickel, Copper, Tin, Gold Royalty Hike After Industry Push
Indonesia has postponed the June 2026 increase in royalties on nickel, copper, tin and gold after strong pushback from mining firms. The move pauses a draft that would have raised tin royalties up to 20% depending on price, while the...
EU Targets Kyrgyzstan as Brussels Seeks to Prevent Russian Sanctions Evasion
The European Union has deployed its new anti‑circumvention tools to sanction Kyrgyzstan, banning the export of computer numerical control machines and other dual‑use technologies. EU officials say Kyrgyz imports of Western dual‑use goods have jumped roughly 800% since the 2022...
Brazil Breaks Five-Year IPO Drought with Compass Listing, Signals Market Revival
Brazil's Compass deal marks the first initial public offering in five years, ending a prolonged market freeze and offering a test of investor appetite amid high benchmark rates. The listing could pave the way for other mid‑cap firms if structural...
Iran Rejects US Ceasefire Offer, Brent Crude Surges Above $105 a Barrel
Iran rebuffed a U.S. cease‑fire proposal, sending Brent crude up more than 3% to $105 a barrel and keeping the Strait of Hormuz largely closed. The escalation fuels inflation worries in commodity‑dependent emerging economies and tightens global oil supplies.
CPI Hits 3.8% YoY, Yields Jump to 4.46% and S&P 500 Slides
U.S. consumer prices rose 3.8% year‑over‑year in April, the strongest pace since May 2023, pushing the 10‑year Treasury yield to 4.463% and sending the S&P 500 down 0.1% and the Nasdaq off 0.7%. The data revived concerns that the Federal...
Price Levels Relative to January 2025
The AIER Everyday Price Index (EPI) is climbing faster than traditional CPI measures, with April nowcasted via a gasoline‑price regression that explains 87% of its variance. Core CPI inflation has also picked up, except for the supercore index that excludes...
Michigan Gas Prices Slip to $4.72/gal, Analysts Warn Summer Surge
Michigan's average regular gasoline price fell to $4.72 a gallon, a 14‑cent drop from the previous week. Analysts say the brief relief could evaporate as summer travel demand rises and geopolitical risks keep crude oil near $100 a barrel.
$35B in Tariff Refunds Cleared for Importers so Far
The U.S. Treasury is set to disburse over $35.5 billion in tariff refunds to importers after a Supreme Court ruling declared President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs unlawful. A new online portal has...
Inflation Surges 3.8%, Propelled by Gas Price, Outpacing Wage Gains
U.S. consumer price inflation jumped to a three‑year high of 3.8% in May, driven primarily by a 17.9% surge in energy costs, including a 28.4% rise in gasoline and a 54.3% jump in fuel‑oil. Core CPI, which excludes food and...
Why the Strait of Hormuz Is a Semiconductor Crisis Waiting to Happen
The article warns that the Strait of Hormuz, a key conduit for about one‑fifth of global LNG—83% of which heads to Asia—poses a hidden semiconductor risk. Asian power grids, heavily fed by LNG, supply the massive electricity needed for EUV...
US Inflation Jumps to 3.8% as Energy Costs Surge From Iran War
U.S. consumer prices jumped to a 3.8% year‑over‑year increase in April, the fastest pace since May 2023, driven largely by soaring energy costs tied to the Iran‑Israel conflict. Gasoline prices peaked at $4.50 per gallon—the highest level since July 2022—while...
Inflation Edges Up in April
U.S. consumer prices rose to a 3‑year high in April, with the all‑items CPI climbing 3.8% year‑over‑year, up from 3.3% in March. Energy costs surged 3.8%, accounting for more than 40% of the monthly increase, while shelter prices rose 0.6%....
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago CEO on Inflation and Latest Consumer Price Index
Austan Goolsbee, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, told NPR that the latest consumer price index showed a 3.8% year‑over‑year increase, well above the Fed’s 2% target. He identified energy costs as the chief driver but...
Social Security’s COLA Could Rise as Much as 4.2% in 2027, Boosted by Iran War Impact and Inflation
Social Security’s cost‑of‑living adjustment (COLA) for 2027 may climb to 4.2%, up from the 2.8% slated for this year. The surge reflects a three‑year high in inflation, driven largely by higher gasoline, energy and grocery prices after the Iran war...
Satirical 10‑point Plan: Labour Quit, Dollar‑peg, Technocratic Takeover
My totally outrageous and not at all serious 10 point plan to save Britain. 1) The entire Labour government does the honourable thing and resigns on the basis that remaining in office merely guarantees it will preside over the eventual loss...
Investor Jitters over Starmer Uncertainty Drive UK Borrowing Costs to 28-Year High
Long-term borrowing costs in the United Kingdom spiked to a 28‑year peak on Tuesday as investors reacted to uncertainty surrounding Labour leader Keir Starmer’s potential departure. The yield on 30‑year gilts rose 14 basis points to 5.81%, the highest level...
This Hidden Cost of the Iran War Hits the Stock Market Even Harder than Inflation
The Iran conflict is creating more than higher oil prices; it is generating sustained price volatility that undermines business confidence. While a stable $100‑a‑barrel market can be managed through hedging, swings between $95 and $130 freeze capital‑allocation decisions. Prolonged uncertainty...
Five Reasons Why Oil Prices Haven’t Surged Higher Despite the Iran War
The Iran‑triggered war has removed roughly one billion barrels of oil from the market, the largest supply shock in history, yet Brent and U.S. crude futures remain near $108 and $101 per barrel respectively. Analysts point to a pre‑war global...
China Urges WTO to Set up Panel in Case Against India's Support Measures for Solar, IT Sectors
China has asked the WTO dispute‑settlement body to establish a panel over India’s support measures for solar‑cell, module and IT sectors after bilateral talks failed in December 2025. Beijing alleges that higher import duties and domestic‑preference schemes discriminate against Chinese...
Policy Planners Outline India’s Economic Response After PM’s Call for Energy Discipline
India’s policy makers warned that the West Asia war‑driven oil shock is testing the country’s macro‑economy, threatening inflation, the current‑account gap and rupee stability. Ministers called for tighter fiscal discipline, deeper deregulation and a push toward globally competitive manufacturing to...
China Ramps up Dollar Swaps to Curb Yuan Rise
Bloomberg is reporting a $3b (CNY 17.4b) increase in the use of PBOC swaps in Q1 ... Que forecasts of dollar doom In the first quarter China (PBOC and state banks) bought $180 of fx to keep the CNY from rising --...
Trump Heads to Beijing Seeking Chinese Help to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Amid Iran War
President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing on May 13 to meet Xi Jinping, urging China to pressure Iran and help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of world crude. The visit also tackles lingering trade disputes and...
Future Inflation Trajectory Will Be Shaped by Pass Thru of Higher Energy Prices, Progress of Kharif Sowing
India's Economic Research Department (ERD) projects CPI at 4.5% for FY27, citing the pass‑through of higher global energy prices and a 300,000‑hectare drop in Kharif sowing as key inflation drivers. April 2026 CPI rose to 3.48% from 3.40% in March,...
When The Bond Market Breaks, The Fed Will Be Powerless To Stop It | Bill Fleckenstein
Bill Fleckenstein warns that the U.S. bond market is headed for a break, a scenario that would leave the Federal Reserve largely powerless to intervene. He attributes the current market buoyancy to massive passive index inflows, ongoing quantitative easing, and...
Trump Rejects Iran's Dilution Offer, Raising Stakes for Middle‑East Emerging Markets
President Donald Trump dismissed Iran's offer to dilute enriched uranium as 'totally unacceptable', prompting harsh criticism from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Sen. Lindsey Graham and former adviser John Bolton. The rebuff heightens geopolitical risk for Iran and its neighbours,...
How the U.S.‑Israel War Against Iran Is Exposing the Limits of the Petrodollar System
U.S. public debt has risen to $31.27 trillion, edging past the nation’s $31.22 trillion GDP, reviving concerns about fiscal sustainability. Gulf Cooperation Council sovereign wealth funds, which collectively own roughly $2 trillion of U.S. assets, are reassessing those holdings after the U.S.-Israel campaign...
European Oil Majors' Q1 Profit Surge Revives EU Windfall Tax Push
Shell, BP and TotalEnergies posted record first‑quarter profits as Iran‑related oil shocks lifted Brent crude to $100‑$126 a barrel. The surge has reignited calls from Germany, Austria, Spain, Italy and Portugal for an EU‑wide windfall tax on excess energy earnings.
Rates Spark: Hard to See a Ceiling for Gilt Yields
UK gilt yields are climbing as the Bank of England continues aggressive quantitative tightening, shedding roughly £70 bn ($89 bn) of bonds each year and steepening the GBP swap curve by about 60 basis points versus the dollar. Political turbulence surrounding Labour’s...
XRP Offers BRICS a Sovereign, Unfrozen Settlement Layer
Governments will not use RLUSD. They want their own stablecoin, their own treasuries, their own interest. RLUSD is also an issued asset Ripple can freeze. XRP cannot be frozen, clawed back, or minted by anyone. Swift participation means you can...
AUD/JPY Climbs to 113.70 as RBA Hikes and Japan Intervention Risk Looms
The Australian dollar pushed the AUD/JPY pair up to 113.70, a 0.13% gain, after the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its policy rate to 4.35% and signaled further tightening. At the same time, market participants flagged a heightened risk of...
Nigeria’s Port Cargo Tonnage Jumps 19.5% in Q1 2026, Boosting AfCFTA Trade
Nigeria’s ports recorded a 19.5% rise in gross registered tonnage to 46.75 million in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting larger ships, higher export volumes and a $1 billion upgrade programme. The surge underscores Lagos’s push to become Africa’s premier maritime hub...
Trump’s Ceasefire Warning Sends Oil Prices Higher Again
President Trump’s warning that the Iran cease‑fire is on “life support” sent Brent crude back toward $110 a barrel, reviving price gains of about 3% this week. Gulf producers, still repairing drone‑damaged facilities, now expect full output recovery only by...
Cleveland Fed Median CPI Jumps, 12‑month Rise Hits 2.8
The Cleveland Fed's median CPI was +0.40% in April, or 4.9% annualized. The 12-month median CPI ticked up to 2.8%, the first such increase since last summer. (The median CPI looks at the price change of the item sitting in the...
U.S. Inflation Stubbornly Above 2% for Six Years
Crafting headlines is notoriously challenging, particularly when trying to balance competing considerations and objectives. With that important qualification in mind, it is improtant to note that America’s inflation challenge isn’t just about the gas pump. The economy is now in its...
US Inflation Posts Fastest Rise in Nearly Three Years
U.S. consumer prices rose 0.6% in April, delivering a second straight monthly gain and pushing the year‑on‑year CPI to 3.8%, the fastest increase since May 2023. The surge was driven largely by oil prices above $100 a barrel, which lifted gasoline,...
Debt Surge to $232T Threatens Faster Interest Rate Rise
"...somewhere between a federal debt of today’s $31 trillion and the 30-year projected level of $232 trillion, a brutal cycle of rising interest rates followed by even faster-rising debt will likely be unleashed. Responsible lawmakers and taxpayers should not want...
Japan's FX Intervention Powerless Against Massive Carry Trade
This is why Japan's intervention efforts won't work. The MOF - via BOJ - are trying to fight risk appetite and a healthy carry trade. That represents a vastly larger pool of wealth than Japanese authorities have in FX reserves to...
Sanjac Alpha's Wells: Interest Rates Will Rise This Year, Even if the Fed Cuts
In this episode, host Chuck Jaffe talks with three experts—Martha Moore on the NABE Business Conditions Survey, Matt Harris on market technicals, and Andy Wells, CIO of Sanjak Alpha—about the current economic landscape. The discussion highlights rising input costs from...
Commodities Enter Super Cycle as Copper Hits Record High
As I've said, "You want to be long commodities." COMMODITY MARKETS = ENTERING A SUPER CYCLE. https://t.co/G6PcKZlg6y
More Money Fuels Bigger, Costlier Projects, Jevons Paradox
The real Jevons paradox is in capital markets: the more money we create, the more expensive and ambitious the projects we invent to absorb it.
UK’s Rentier Economy Relies on US Approval
It is soon going to be revealed the degree to which the UK’s financial rentier model which subsidises the entire country is dependent on America’s cooperation and blessing.
US Plans T‑Bill‑Backed Stablecoins to Fund Deficits
"It's fine - we'll just shift issuance to the front end, have Warsh cut rates & flood the world with T-Bill backed stablecoins to finance US deficits..." https://t.co/pC68U8KAWt
ESF Funds Favor Wealthy Allies,
if the $212b (counting ~ $175b in SDRs that Republicans historically haven't liked using) Exchange Stabilization Fund is going to be given to allies without a financial need (like the UAE) not everyone is going to be able to get...
Turkey's Deficit Growing Pre‑Oil Shock, Targets $50B
I think the underlying issue that Bloomberg highlighted is that Turkey's current account deficit was rising even before the oil shock -- it stood at $35b in the 12ms to February, and was on a trajectory toward $50b even if...