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Polish Disinflation Continues Despite Upside Surprise in January CPI

Poland’s January flash CPI showed headline inflation at 2.2% YoY, modestly above the 1.9% consensus but still under the NBP’s 2.5% ± 1‑point target. The decline was driven by a 7.1% drop in gasoline prices, while food prices held steady at 2.4% YoY and housing energy costs rose to 3.4% YoY, limiting the pace of disinflation. The new COICOP 2018 classification altered basket weights, contributing to a 0.6% month‑on‑month increase. Analysts expect the NBP to proceed with a 25‑basis‑point rate cut in March, potentially lowering the policy rate to 3.25% or lower.