Know What's Happening in Global Economy
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Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
UK fintech funding plunges 21% as rates hit 5.25%
Fintech investment in the UK fell 21% in 2025, driven by the Bank of England’s base rate climbing to 5.25%. Higher rates made government bonds more attractive, pulling capital from venture funds and limiting contributions from pension schemes, while softer consumer spending and loan demand pressured fintech valuations.
The article warns that the April 7 cease‑fire ending the U.S.–Israel air campaign against Iran could repeat the post‑Desert Storm quagmire the United States faced in Iraq. It argues that leaving Tehran’s regime in place but weakened will force a costly containment strategy, echoing a decade of U.S. policing that eroded credibility and strained the economy. By contrasting the 1991‑2003 Iraq experience with today’s Iran conflict, the piece urges Trump to pursue a diplomatic settlement rather than a regime‑change crusade. A realistic exit plan, it says, is the only way to avoid a new disaster.
Thoughts? The Strauss-Howe generation theory explains how we're entering a crisis phase similar to the Great Depression and Civil War with three defining factors of this stage—economic pressure, social division, and financial instability—and show how current global conditions align with...
Europe faces a surge in "dark" vessels operating in the Arctic and North Atlantic as sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela drive ships to disable AIS or spoof their identities. A recent US boarding of a Russian‑flagged tanker and heightened...
Iran announced a two‑week ceasefire, prompting the S&P 500 to close above 6,700, though analysts warn the optimism may be premature. Gold slipped to $4,727, roughly 16% below its recent all‑time high, while silver sits near $74, down 38% from...
Australian dollar momentum has surged as the US Dollar Index stalls, while the Chinese yuan continues its upward trajectory. Commodity markets have shifted, with oil prices plunging and gold prices rallying, creating a backdrop for a potential AUD super‑cycle. Analyst...
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck the East‑West (Petroline) pipeline that feeds the Red Sea port of Yanbu, Saudi Arabia’s primary crude export route after the Strait of Hormuz was blocked. The line has been moving up to seven million barrels...
Indian markets are expected to open flat to mildly negative as renewed Iran‑US tensions dampen the optimism from a prior rally. The focus shifts to Tata Consultancy Services, which will post its Q4 earnings and serve as a bellwether for...
The Perth Mint reported a sharp March slowdown in retail precious‑metal sales, with gold shipments falling 35% month‑on‑month to 43,656 ounces and silver output dropping nearly 50% to 976,450 ounces. The decline followed an 11% slide in spot gold and...
A ceasefire between the United States and Iran has eased the growth‑downside risk that previously bolstered the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts. While markets have nudged up the odds of easing, analyst Nick Timiraos argues that inflation pressures remain...
The MacroBusiness podcast examines the market fallout from a tentative U.S.–Iran cease‑fire, noting that while hostilities have paused, the underlying tensions remain unresolved. It assesses how a fragile pause could depress oil prices, temper inflation expectations, and shift safe‑haven flows....
The Atlantic argues that a new geopolitical reality is emerging as the United States sees its traditional coalition crumble while adversaries—Russia, China, Iran and North Korea—tighten military and technological ties. The Iran war highlighted the limits of U.S. force: over...
Even before the Israel‑U.S. conflict, Iran’s economy was already reeling under sanctions with inflation close to 50 percent and widespread protests. The five‑week war has pushed consumer prices higher, exemplified by toast rising to 1 million rials (about $0.75) and a...
The US‑Israel‑Iran conflict has disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a rapid reassessment of energy security worldwide. Analysts say the crisis, which the IEA deems more severe than the 1973, 1979 and 2022 shocks combined, is accelerating...
Westpac predicts the Australian dollar will be capped between $0.7100 and $0.7150 over the next one to two weeks unless the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens and the US‑Iran ceasefire proves durable. The bank’s FX chief says a breakout higher...
A two‑week cease‑fire announced on 8 April temporarily eased financial markets, but oil prices remain well above pre‑conflict levels. Reduced refinery capacity in Iran and a lingering backlog of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed jet‑fuel prices to...
The United States’ war on Iran has pushed Brent crude above $109 a barrel, triggering a sharp rise in input costs for manufacturers worldwide. U.S. plastic‑bag producer Emerald Packaging faces resin prices that jumped from $0.45 to $0.85 per pound,...
Global Market Update: Gift Nifty -189.50 (-0.79%) 23,909.50 Dow Jones +1,325.46 (+2.85%) 47,909.92 Nasdaq +617.15 (+2.80%) 22,635.00 India Vix -5.1600 (-20.89%) 19.5350 S&P 500 +166.11 (+2.51%) 6,782.96
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set today’s USD/CNY mid‑point at 6.8649, within its usual ±2% trading band. The central bank also injected roughly 500 million yuan (about $73 million) into the market through a 7‑day reverse‑repo operation, leaving the repo rate...
Took my inspiration from Jackson Browne’s 1977 hit Running on Empty. History doesn’t repeat, but often rhymes. https://kpmg.com/us/en/articles/2026/april-2026-economic-compass.html
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its cash rate at 2.25% for a second meeting, noting that earlier rate cuts are still feeding through the economy. Governor Anna Breman said growth this year hinges on a swift resolution to...
Iran has reduced ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz to roughly a dozen vessels per day and now requires advance toll payments in cryptocurrency or Chinese yuan. Fees can climb to $2 million for a super‑tanker, which could generate up...
The People’s Bank of China is expected to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8315, according to Reuters estimates. The midpoint is announced each morning and defines a ±2% trading band for the onshore yuan. A stronger-than-expected midpoint is...
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains near‑standstill despite Iran’s conditional announcement that safe passage would be possible for two weeks. In the first 24 hours only seven vessels—six bulk carriers and one oil‑chemical tanker—were recorded, with most using Iran’s...
A tentative cease‑fire between the US and Iran has eased geopolitical tension, prompting investors to revisit stocks that were hardest hit by the West‑Asia conflict. Aviation, travel, oil‑marketing companies, textiles and chemicals posted sharp gains, with Hindustan Petroleum up 10.1%...
India’s textile sector, the nation’s second‑largest employer, is grappling with a double shock: a 50% U.S. tariff imposed in August 2025 and the February 2024 Iran war that has spiked raw‑material and freight costs. Export earnings slipped to $29.5 billion in...
The war with Iran and the Hormuz closure have kicked up a lot of debate about Chinese energy futures. And Venezuela, from which China also bought oil, adds fuel to one piece of that debate. But my #CarnegieAsia teammate @damienics,...
This isn’t a ceasefire—it’s a narrative overlay on an ongoing conflict, writes @Rabobank 's Molly Schwartz Markets bought the headline—but the war never stopped. #OilMarkets #Geopolitics #IranWar https://t.co/y0FU39ejju
Indonesia has postponed its planned windfall tax on coal and nickel exports, originally set for April 1, to resolve technical disputes over profit definitions, price thresholds, and calculation methods. The delay reflects a broader tension between the government’s short‑term fiscal pressures—exacerbated...
Not ONE ship will pass thru Hormuz except the Iran dark fleet, writes @BurggrabenH Analysts do the math but it's irrelevant if ships won't sail. Hormuz is frozen That's the empirical reality. All the rest is wishful thinking. #OilMarkets #Energy #Geopolitics https://t.co/XIfp4dbmSc
Ships won’t sail, missiles still fly, and terms are unclear But markets rally anyway. Much of that probably short covering and margin calls. Brace for reality sooner than later #OilMarkets #Iran #Geopolitics https://t.co/m3ZdBieyHh
The United States and Iran agreed to a two‑week ceasefire, sending Brent crude down 16% to $93 a barrel and lifting equity markets worldwide. Yet analysts warn that the temporary truce leaves oil‑supply risks, inflation pressures and growth outlooks vulnerable...
UAE says: a ceasefire isn’t words—it’s behavior. Back to UAE: Why should Iran change a behavior that's been a massive win? #OilMarkets #UAE #Iran #Geopolitics
Spoke with @PnPCBC earlier today about the Iran War "ceasefire", how the rough first day still had plenty of fire on both sides, how flow through Hormuz has yet to actually resume, and what it all means for the supply-starved...
Israel’s renewed strikes on Lebanon prompted the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps to suspend all vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, despite a U.S.‑brokered cease‑fire that had raised hopes of reopening the key oil lane. Only a handful of ships...
Obama did not give Iran $1.7 billion. It was their money that was frozen in US banks.
Pay the toll — move the oil. If you guarantee safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, markets will pay. Certainty lowers risk. Risk moves prices. And when 21% of the world’s oil is on the line, stability is worth billions https://t.co/m4JhLddeJq
A two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ignited a sharp relief rally, pulling equity markets higher as tail‑risk premiums recede. Investors can seize short‑term gains, but the rally masks lingering structural vulnerabilities in the energy sector, where...
According to the FT, the Iran-driven oil shock is exposing a new reality: Irresponsible monetary and fiscal policies have left many economies vulnerable to external shocks. https://t.co/cq9fxS0atg
JUST IN: US allies in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East depend on America's economic and military power but are frustrated by President Trump's erratic actions causing uncertainty and hardship.
Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization issued a revised traffic separation scheme for the Strait of Hormuz, citing the risk of naval mines and ongoing war conditions. The new routing forces inbound vessels between Qeshm and Larak islands and outbound traffic...
JUST IN: Asian markets are poised to rise at the open due to the fragile Iran-US ceasefire deal.
JUST IN: Traders placed $950,000,000 in bets on oil prices falling just hours before President Trump announced ceasefire with Iran
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The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a diffusion index compiled monthly from surveys of supply‑chain executives, measuring new orders, production, employment, deliveries and inventories. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction. The Institute for Supply Management...
Even Iran’s own officials can’t agree on what’s in the deal. My take is that the US does not go back to fighting because of depletion of munitions & political will That suggests no return to stability. Uncertainty becomes the new normal. #Iran #Geopolitics...
Iran’s “unacceptable” plan was scrapped Then replaced with one we’re not allowed to see. If it were a win, they’d show it. The silence says more than the spin. #Iran #Geopolitics #OilMarkets
U.S. Vice President JD Vance warned that President Donald Trump will not honor the cease‑fire if Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed, tying the agreement to the reopening of the vital shipping lane. The United States is pressing Tehran...
Ford’s best‑selling F‑150 faces a multi‑billion‑dollar hit after two fires at Novelis’s Oswego aluminum plant crippled supply. The automaker has asked the Trump administration for temporary relief from recently doubled 50% aluminum tariffs, but officials have refused. Ford estimates a...
The ceasefire hasn’t restored Hormuz—it’s formalized Iran’s control. Flows are regulated as a fraction of normal The world's energy supply continues to bleed out. Iran is the strongest country in the world. We're winning like never before. https://t.co/4DY0HDko7L #OilMarkets #Iran #Geopolitics
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that the fragile cease‑fire with Iran could end if diplomatic talks fail, emphasizing Israel’s aim to stop Iran’s uranium enrichment program. He said Israel will achieve its goals either through agreement or by resuming...
Bill Campbell, head of DoubleLine’s Global Sovereign & Emerging Markets team, warned that the Iran conflict – dubbed Operation Epic Fury – is injecting new inflation and growth risks into the global economy. He highlighted rising risk premiums for energy,...
