Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Did Nike Exploit Import Tariffs to Earn Twice?
U.S. consumers have filed a lawsuit against Nike, claiming the company failed to refund import duties it collected after a federal court declared former President Donald Trump's 2018 tariff regime illegal. Nike reported paying roughly $1.1 billion in duties on shoes and apparel, and while the ruling requires manufacturers to receive refunds, the plaintiffs argue they bore higher retail prices in the interim. The case highlights a gap between corporate refunds and consumer compensation in the wake of the tariff reversal. Nike has not publicly commented on the litigation.
Iran Says Its Response to US 'Reasonable, Generous'
Iran's foreign ministry described its response to the latest U.S. peace proposal as "reasonable" and "generous," countering President Donald Trump's label of it as "totally unacceptable." Tehran emphasized safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and broader regional security, while...
Iran War, A Fuel Additive for The Great Reset
The ongoing Iran‑Saudi conflict has tightened the Strait of Hormuz, halting roughly one‑third of global urea shipments and constraining key nitrogen‑fertilizer flows. The blockade also curtails sulfur and LNG exports that underpin phosphate production and nitrogen synthesis, setting the stage...
3 Stocks That Win If Inflation Surprises to the Downside
The April CPI, due May 12, is expected at 3.7%‑3.8%, a reading that would likely keep the Federal Reserve’s policy rate unchanged. Some analysts, including incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh, argue that AI‑driven productivity could become a deflationary force, offsetting energy‑price pressures...
Where International Finance Meets Development: The Role of Currency Risk
Currency volatility in African markets is reshaping development outcomes by dictating who can access capital and on what terms. Firms in shallow financial systems must choose between expensive foreign‑currency loans or scarce local‑currency financing, while households face higher remittance costs...
Taiwan in Talks with Iran to Free Flag-Carrier Box Ships From the Gulf
Taiwan’s Ministry of Transportation and Communications and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs are negotiating with Iranian authorities to secure safe passage for eight Taiwanese‑flagged container ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. The vessels, operated by Evergreen, Yang Ming and...
A Qatari Gas Tanker Passed the Strait of Hormuz
A Qatari LNG tanker, Al Kharaitiyat, became the first vessel to navigate the Strait of Hormuz since the Iran‑Israel war began, using a Tehran‑approved northern route. The transit signals a tentative reopening of a critical oil‑and‑gas corridor, easing some pressure on...
U.S. Oil Export Boom Turns Dollar Oily
The Dollar used to have a negative correlation with oil prices, but that was when the US was a net importer. About 5 years ago, the US transformed into a net exporter and so now higher oil prices lift the...
Exclusive: UK Election Aftermath, Keir Starmer 'Reset', Economy Fallout, and Growing Debt Crisis with Liam Halligan and Matt Goodwin
Britain’s recent local elections saw Reform UK surge, capturing 14 councils, over 1,400 seats and 3.8 million votes, while Labour and the Conservatives suffered a dramatic collapse in their combined vote share. The results have fractured the historic two‑party system, prompting...
World’s Best Banks: Asia-Pacific
The 2025 Asia‑Pacific banking review highlights a split in net interest margins as central banks diverged in policy. Japan’s rate hikes boosted NIMs, enabling MUFG to post a 30% profit surge to about $12 billion, while China’s cuts drove NIMs to...
Payroll Gains Mask Underlying Job Losses and Wage Decline
It’s tiring having to listen to talk on bubble vision about how great the U.S. economy is, as has been the case this morning. Good grief. Everyone is fixated on the +115k nonfarm payroll gain in April, with nary a comment anywhere...
Inflation Data This Week Crucial, Says
A clip from this morning's conversation on CNBC with Andrew Ross Sorkin, Becky Quick, and Joe Kernen. Thank you for having me on Squawk Box. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/05/11/the-inflation-numbers-are-going-to-be-absolutely-critical-this-week-says-mohamed-el-erian.html #economy #markets
François Villeroy De Galhau: A Long View on Monetary Policy - Three Clarifications Prompted by Three Challenges
In his final monetary speech, Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau reflected on a decade of central‑bank turbulence, from pre‑2020 low‑inflation pressures through the Covid‑induced deflation risk and the 2022‑23 inflation surge. He argued that despite these shocks,...
The Cost of Deposits and the Next Fed Chair
Deposit rates have been falling, allowing big banks to fund loans cheaply and fuel multi‑billion‑dollar stock buybacks. However, a potential escalation of the Iran‑driven oil shock could force the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher, raising banks' cost of deposits...
China Believes America Will Flame Out
China is quietly positioning itself to assume global leadership as the United States wrestles with internal political turmoil, strained alliances, and renewed Middle‑East conflict. Rather than confronting the U.S. directly, Beijing is pursuing a patient strategy that emphasizes self‑reliance, technological...
Ida Wolden Bache: Policy Rate Raised to 4.25 Percent
Norway’s Monetary and Financial Stability Committee lifted the policy rate by 0.25 percentage point to 4.25% as inflation remains above the 2% target. Consumer‑price inflation is 3.6% overall and about 3% core, driven by strong wage growth and higher global...
Elasticity Holds Crude, Corn Prices; Copper Vulnerable to Market Swings
Crude, Corn, Copper vs. Primary Forces of Elasticity, Dependency Elasticity is a top force that has kept the primary energy and agriculture commodities -- crude oil and corn -- under price pressure for decades, and 2026 is a good test. Ample...
The Daily Feather — News From Home
Chantal Akerman’s 1976 documentary “News from Home” intertwines her mother’s wartime letters with long takes of 1970s New York, illustrating immigrant loneliness and the enduring power of maternal love. The post connects that personal narrative to today’s Mother’s Day, noting...
Top Links 1099 Lopsided Stock Boom. Why UAE Exited OPEC. Mexico and Brazil Cutting the Working Day. How the Guardian...
Adam Tooze’s Chartbook newsletter spotlights four divergent developments: a sharp, technology‑driven rally that lifted U.S. equities about 10% in the first quarter of 2026, the United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave OPEC as it pivots toward renewable‑energy projects, Mexico and...
World’s Best Banks 2026: Central & Eastern Europe
In 2025 Central and Eastern European (CEE) banks posted stronger fortunes despite war in Ukraine, a fragile euro‑zone recovery and falling rates, with larger institutions better weathering the environment. State‑driven bank taxes, especially in Hungary, could shave roughly 8% off...
Gold’s Grim Message
Central banks are accelerating purchases and repatriation of gold, a move the author ties to rising deglobalization. Emerging‑market central banks have more than doubled their gold reserves since the 2008 financial crisis. The surge comes amid heightened geopolitical tension, notably...
Oil Prices Jump 2.4% as Hormuz Closure Fuels Global Supply‑Chain Shock
Brent crude surged 2.4% to $103.76 a barrel after the United States and Iran failed to secure a cease‑fire deal, leaving the Strait of Hormuz largely shut. The closure is driving a cascade of supply‑chain disruptions across oil, food and...
Trump‑Xi Summit Targets Extension of Critical Minerals Truce Amid Trade and Geopolitical Tensions
President Donald Trump arrives in Beijing for a two‑day summit with Xi Jinping, where the leaders will negotiate an extension of the critical‑minerals truce that keeps Chinese rare‑earths flowing to the United States. The talks also cover trade, Iran, Taiwan...
World’s Best Banks 2026: Latin America
The 2026 World’s Best Banks in Latin America highlight a shift toward efficiency, digital adoption, and selective growth amid resilient household cash flows and cautious corporate lending. Itaú Unibanco led the region with a 13.1% net‑income rise to $8.5 billion, a...
US‑China Talks Target Chinese Purchases of Key U.S. Exports
"Discussions will focus largely on trade issues, namely the Chinese purchases of American agricultural goods, energy products and aerospace technologies such as Boeing airplanes, a senior U.S. official said. The leaders will also discuss establishing a U.S.-China board of trade...
China Sees a Violent, Declining U.S. Hegemony
35-year CIA veteran: “The Chinese have a very dark portrait of the United States as a global hegemon that’s declining in power and becoming more violent as it tries to cling to its primacy.” https://t.co/k0BBoVA8G8
Iran Ceasefire Tested as Drone Sets Cargo Ship Aflame Off Qatar, Raising Gulf Shipping Risks
A drone strike ignited a cargo ship 23 nautical miles northeast of Doha, prompting the UAE and Kuwait to shoot down additional drones. The incident underscores the fragility of the month‑old Iran‑U.S. ceasefire and threatens oil flow through the Strait...
US Ramps up Exports as China Curtails Imports
"the United States has responded by cranking up exports, while China has slashed imports" https://t.co/09kxu4zCqF https://t.co/jQMwClxNcB
CPI Drops Tomorrow, PPI Follows—If You Trust the Numbers
The consumer price index (CPI)* report will be released tomorrow, and the producer price index (PPI) report will be released on Wednesday. *for those that trust the data
China's CPI Jumps to 1.2% in April, Fueling Yuan Weakness
China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that consumer price inflation accelerated to 1.2% in April, outpacing expectations and pushing factory‑gate inflation to a 45‑month high. The data has heightened market worries that the People's Bank of China may tighten policy,...
US‑Germany Ties Strain as Trump Mulls Troop Pullout
Relations between the US & Germany are quickly deteriorating. Chancellor Merz criticized the US for lacking a coherent negotiation strategy. President Trump responded by floating the idea of reducing US troop deployments in Germany. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/GsJKw5kfCF https://t.co/IVEtk17ZhT
Voters Overwhelmingly Back CGT and Negative Gearing Reforms
Did you explain to the respondents first that capital is mobile? That Australia already has a productivity problem and that increasing capital gains tax likely makes it worse?
U.S. Dollar Slides Over 0.25% as Safe‑Haven Demand Ebbs Amid Middle East Diplomacy
The U.S. dollar index dropped over 0.25% for the week ended May 8, driven by fading safe‑haven demand as President Trump affirmed a cease‑fire with Iran. The slide came despite a robust jobs report that added 115,000 jobs, well above the...
China's Auto Exports Surge While Domestic Demand Falters
China's auto sector is a near-perfect metaphor for China's economy -- domestic demand is down, quite significantly. But exports are on a rocket ship up -- vehicle exports should come close to reaching 12m this year, car...
Oil Jumps Over 4% After Trump Rejects Iran Cease‑Fire Proposal, Asian Markets Stumble
President Donald Trump called Iran's cease‑fire response "totally unacceptable," sending Brent crude up more than 4% to over $110 a barrel. The move reignited fears about the Strait of Hormuz, pushed WTI to $95, and rattled Asian stock markets, which...
Central Banks Face Repeated Inflation Amid Supply Shocks
NEW ODD LOTS Monetary Policy in the Age of Supply Side Shocks @tracyalloway and I talk to the great Megan Greene —- always @economistmeg to us — about how central banks are dealing with one inflationary episode after another https://t.co/y1tj2H3kJm
The Week the New Global Reality Showed Itself
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on May 9 that Moscow is moving toward a settlement of the Ukraine war and is seeking a new relationship with Europe, proposing former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder as a negotiator. The shift reflects mounting domestic opposition,...
How to Position Your Portfolio in a K-Shaped Economy Where an AI-Fuelled Stock Market Masks Main Street Struggles
The article warns that the U.S. economy is increasingly K‑shaped, with AI‑driven corporate earnings and a $700‑$725 billion capital‑spending plan for 2026 propelling Wall Street, while Main Street faces mounting affordability pressures, declining consumer sentiment and weaker small‑business optimism. First‑quarter S&P 500...
Fed Rate Pause May Rekindle Bank Deposit Competition
The Federal Reserve's decision to pause rate cuts has halted the recent decline in banks' funding costs, which fell to 2.26% in 2025 from 2.61% in 2024. Analysts warn that deposit competition is re‑emerging, with many institutions maintaining or raising...
As Trump Heads to China, Here’s How Much the Dollar Is Overvalued, According to Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs says the Chinese renminbi is about 20% undervalued versus the dollar. The firm expects the upcoming Trump‑Xi summit and China’s expanding trade surplus to push the yuan toward 6.50 per dollar within 12 months, implying roughly 4.5% appreciation...
US Container Imports Dip in April Amid Middle East and Trade Tensions
U.S. container imports slipped 5.5% year‑over‑year in April, totaling 2.28 million TEUs, according to Descartes. Imports from China fell 15.3% YoY, more than a third below the July 2024 peak, while other origins showed mixed results. West Coast ports reclaimed market share...
Andrew Bridgen on NZ-India FTA, Migration and COVID-Era Policies
In this episode, Andrew Bridgen warns that a pending New Zealand‑India free‑trade agreement will hand over immigration control and key technologies to India, undermining national sovereignty and sparking unchecked migration. He links the deal to broader globalist agendas, including digital ID...
US Auto Industry Asks Trump: Don’t Open Door to Chinese carmakers...China’s Marriage Numbers Drop to COVID-Era low...Alibaba to Rollout Chat-Style...
The U.S. auto industry and bipartisan lawmakers are urging President Trump to keep Chinese automakers out of the American market as he prepares for a Beijing summit. In China, first‑quarter marriage registrations slipped 6.2% to the lowest level since 2020,...
New Points Test Expected for Australia PR in Budget 2026–27
The Australian federal budget for 2026‑27, to be delivered on 12 May 2026, is expected to overhaul the skilled‑migration points test used for permanent residency. Recent migration reviews have highlighted a gap between the current points allocation and productivity goals, prompting the...
India-Bound Fertilizer Shipment Scrapped over Iran Origin Risk
India’s April urea tender lost a roughly 300,000‑ton cargo after Aditya Birla Global Trading withdrew the shipment on the bulk carrier Infinity, citing concerns that the fertilizer originated from Iran and could breach U.S. sanctions. The move follows heightened scrutiny...
Deutsche Bank Flags Dual Inflation Risks From ‘Super’ El Niño, Middle East War
Deutsche Bank Research now sees a "super" El Niño persisting through July, adding to inflation pressure in the Philippines already heightened by the Middle East war. The bank lifted its 2024 inflation forecast to 6.5%, above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas'...
China Pushes Global Expansion While Guarding Domestic Production
Rhodium: "Chinese firms are emerging as major global competitors, but Beijing is intent on ensuring that this overseas expansion does not lead to a hollowing out of production or capabilities in China or a loss of control over key supply...
Iran, China and AI Collide in Trump's Legacy-Defining Week
President Trump’s week will intertwine three high‑stakes fronts: he has dismissed Iran’s one‑page peace proposal, keeping the Middle East conflict alive; he is heading to Beijing for a summit with Xi Jinping that could reshape U.S.–China trade and security ties;...
As PM Modi Calls for Conserving FX, What Steps Can India Take?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged Indians to conserve foreign exchange as soaring oil prices push the rupee to record lows and drain reserves. The Reserve Bank of India has been selling dollars, cracking down on arbitrage and scouting ways to...
As Trump Heads to Beijing, China Is ‘Locked and Loaded’ for a Fight
President Trump and Xi Jinping are meeting in Beijing amid escalating economic tensions between the United States and China. Beijing has recently deployed a new legal framework to counter U.S. sanctions, blocked Meta’s purchase of a Chinese AI startup, and...