Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global Economy Pulse
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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
India’s gold imports surge 29% to $69 billion, widening trade deficit
India’s gold imports jumped 28.73% to $69 billion in the April‑February 2025‑26 period, driven by record‑high prices of about $1,825 per 10 grams. The influx pushed the country’s trade deficit to $310.6 billion, up from $261.8 billion a year earlier.
At the WTO Ministerial in Yaoundé, Cameroon, India single‑handedly blocked the inclusion of the 129‑member Investment Facilitation Agreement (IFA) into Annex 4 of the WTO Agreement, marking the twelfth failed attempt to formalise the plurilateral deal. While Turkey withdrew its objections and South Africa had already backed down, the consensus required to annex a plurilateral remained elusive. Observers suggest the group may pursue an “interim arrangement” outside the WTO, mirroring the e‑commerce plurilateral’s path. The deadlock underscores growing fractures in the WTO’s multilateral system.
Treasury yields slipped as President Trump hinted at progress in peace talks and investors turned to upcoming labor data. The 10‑year yield fell to about 4.37% and the two‑year to 3.86% early, later adjusting to roughly 4.40% and 3.89% per...
U.S. economic data released this week showed fourth‑quarter GDP growth revised down to 0.7% and consumer‑price inflation still running above 3% in January. Combined with soaring oil prices and rising Treasury yields, analysts warn the economy may be slipping into...
Bloomberg says major investment banks continued to execute mergers, acquisitions and capital‑raising transactions despite the Iran‑Israel war driving oil above $100 a barrel and cutting Qatar LNG output by 17%. The resilience underscores the sector’s strategic role as markets grapple...
Hedge funds have intensified short‑selling on U.S. equities, posting the fastest net sell‑off since April 2025, while simultaneously boosting long positions in defensive European stocks. The move reflects heightened geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict and a broader risk‑off tilt...
Asian equity markets tumbled on Monday as Brent crude surged to $115 a barrel, the highest monthly level on record. The Nikkei 225 fell 4.5%, South Korea’s Kospi slipped 3.2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 1.7%, reflecting heightened risk...
Australia’s real per‑capita GDP growth has been sliding for 25 years, reaching a historic low of 0.8 % annualised in 2025 – the weakest pace outside the pandemic period. The latest ABS data show a modest 0.4 % quarterly rebound in the December 2025...
Global current‑account imbalances have surged to their highest levels in 150 years, with surpluses becoming markedly more persistent. A new Bank of England staff paper attributes much of the excess to industrial‑policy programmes that suppress domestic consumption, especially where capital controls...
South Korea fields the world’s fifth‑strongest military, yet wartime operational control (OPCON) remains with a U.S. four‑star general. The 2006 agreement to transfer OPCON to Seoul missed its 2012 deadline and is now 14 years overdue. A handover would grant...
My new book, China's 90% Model, launched on 17th March. I want to share why I wrote it and why I believe leadership teams should read it together. For sixty years I have advised Fortune 500 CEOs and boards across the globe....
President Donald Trump warned he would destroy Iran’s power plants, oil wells and the Kharg Island export hub unless a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is reached, sparking a sharp rally in crude markets. Front‑month Brent May futures...
The article revives the fringe CANZUK concept, proposing a deeper political, economic and security partnership among Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. It builds on the existing Australia‑New Zealand free‑movement and regulatory integration, extending those mechanisms to include the UK...
The US‑Iran conflict is beginning to ripple through India’s quick‑commerce, e‑commerce and logistics ecosystem, driving higher fuel, diesel and urea costs and causing truck delays in key states like Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh. Packaging inputs have surged, with plastics up...
The Iran war has turned the olive‑oil supply chain into a geopolitical liability, adding fuel‑price pressure, a 15% EU tariff and Red Sea shipping disruptions. The United States, which imports over 95% of its 380,000‑ton annual consumption, faces higher freight...
U.S. futures jumped 80 basis points after overnight volatility, buoyed by President Trump’s optimistic remarks on trade talks and Iran’s decision to release an additional 20 ships from the Strait of Hormuz. Asian markets fell, with the Nikkei and KOSPI...
Despite mounting global pressures, U.S. macroeconomic indicators remain stable, with major corporations reporting solid revenue and no recessionary signs. Energy costs are climbing, introducing new inflationary pressures that could ripple through manufacturing, transportation, and consumer goods. Executives warn that prolonged...
CTAs Near Max Short From GS via BBG: - CTA sold $190B this month and are now short $50B of global equities - Cullen Morgan: “The systematic community is running out of steam” “Asymmetry lives to the upside — over the next month,...
Food price inflation has stayed modest even as oil prices have surged over 50% this year and global fertilizer costs have jumped roughly 70%. The rise in input costs has been partially absorbed by farmers through larger inventories, cheaper alternative...
India’s industrial production index accelerated to a 5.2% year‑on‑year gain in February 2026, outpacing the 4.0% forecast and the 2.7% growth recorded a year earlier. Manufacturing led the surge with a 6.0% increase, while mining and electricity showed modest deceleration....
Hedge Fund Selling Shows Signs of Capitulation From GS via BBG: - “Some signs of capitulation are starting to emerge” - Funds cut global equities for a 6th straight week - Europe macro product shorts are at a 10-year high - CHART: US selling hit...
Desjardins warns that investors are fixated on energy‑driven inflation while underestimating deeper growth risks. Rising energy costs are benefitting exporters but straining import‑dependent economies, creating a split in global performance. Markets are pricing inflation aggressively but may be misreading the...
A month into the Iran‑US‑Israel conflict, analysts stress that the duration of the Strait of Hormuz closure will dictate oil price dynamics and broader economic outcomes. State Street outlines four scenarios ranging from a quick reopening to a prolonged energy...
The International Monetary Fund’s Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva visited Manila from March 11‑13, 2026, to deepen collaboration with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. The trip coincides with the Philippines’ chairmanship of the ASEAN summit, positioning the country as a regional...
Citigroup reaffirmed its base‑case 7,700 year‑end target for the S&P 500, even as Iran‑related geopolitical risk and Brent crude above $111 a barrel fuel market volatility. The bank’s outlook hinges on earnings resilience and a bullish earnings‑growth narrative despite a 20%...
A 7‑hour outage of China's DeepSeek AI chatbot and escalating US‑Iran tensions are prompting U.S. logistics firms to reassess digital tools and freight flows, as airports grapple with operational slowdowns. The twin shocks highlight vulnerabilities in AI‑driven supply‑chain platforms and...
U.S. lawmakers have introduced the Critical Minerals Investment Tax Modernization Act, which would lift the depletion allowance for domestically mined rare earth elements and scandium from 14% to 22%. The move is a direct response to Beijing’s April 2025 export...
JET FUEL prices have more than doubled since the onset of the war between the United States, Israel and Iran. Jet fuel swaps in Singapore are trading at more than $200 per barrel up from just over $90 before the...
For most of the past three years, falling energy prices had been helping to push the US inflation rate (CPI) lower. But that tailwind will soon become a headwind, with prices of Oil and Gas spiking on a YoY basis. CPI...
Major U.S. investment banks are closing the first quarter with robust merger, acquisition and fundraising activity despite the escalating Iran‑Israel conflict. Bloomberg reports that deal flow remains on track for a strong finish, underscoring the durability of capital‑markets even as...
i'm still looking at March 9th, 2026... 🧐 crude oil peaked... volatility $VIX peaked... but 10-year yields $TNX ignored oil/VIX & still rising... and stocks $SPX ignored oil/VIX & still falling... https://t.co/8DK3OPCAJa
How markets have performed since February 28 (start of the Iran war) 🔴 SP500 -7.5% 🔴 MAG 7 -6.5% 🔴 Gold -13% 🟢 Bitcoin +3% 🟢 (WTI) Oil +53% 🟢 (Brent) Oil +50% 🔴 10 yr US Treasury Yields ~+25–40 bps 🟢 VIX +50% So much winning https://t.co/YpeGMs8fpe
The S&P 500 has slipped about 7% year‑to‑date as recession probabilities climb, heightening concerns for holders of large‑cap stocks. Analysts point to tighter credit, volatile energy prices and lingering geopolitical stress as key drivers, while investors scramble to hedge exposure.
Oil up across the curve the past week and rate hike odds contracting in the back half of that oil rise feels ominous
Does restocking = industrial recovery if no follow through foreseen? Philly Fed Mfg Delivery Times hit 4-year high of 18.9 in March, FUTURE Delivery Times’ -4.7 was 3-year low; 23.6 point spread a -2.0 z-score reinforcing restocking as did falling Expected...
Diesel prices in the UK have risen to 179.9p per litre (about $2.25), up more than 35p since the Iran‑Israel conflict began, creating the widest diesel‑petrol price gap in decades. The RAC reports that over 4.6 million vans – the backbone...
Straight of Hormuz Traffic over time. Vessel traffic dropped by Mid 300s in late Feb to 13 the last week. Just to give you a sense.... https://t.co/lVJpLM2VFe
China. Rare earth exports. What about the deal the US made? And the processing of them?
Investors are bracing for the Eurozone Economic Confidence Index and flash inflation numbers from Germany, while Spain’s retail sales data is due early Tuesday. The releases are expected to dictate risk appetite across European equities, with the euro’s softness and...
The danger for Turkey is always the same. The current government pushes growth way above the speed limit, which leads to a large current account deficit. Then a shock like high oil prices hits and things run out of control....
Fed funds futures mostly back to "normal" as the near term rate hike gets priced out. Live chart vs last Thurs. https://t.co/F0dnQCJ9pu
The author warns that a new recession is looming as U.S. support for Israel escalates tensions in the Middle East. In retaliation, Iran and allied groups could choke oil shipments through the Persian Gulf, tightening global energy markets. The resulting...
Turkey's reserve losses rival March 2025 after the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu. They're up in the most recent data point only because the central bank used its gold to get access to more foreign exchange. In March 2025 this ended...
German inflation probably surged to the highest level in more than a year after the Iran war propelled energy costs https://t.co/n3dBXpKCWg https://t.co/lLUlaIWF5t
Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US… 1970s: 8.9% 1980s: 12.7% 1990s: 8.1% 2000s: 6.3% 2010s: 4.1% 2020s: 5.3% --- All-Time Low (Jan 2021): 2.65% 2023 Peak (Oct 2023): 7.79% Today's Rate: 6.38% (highest since Sep 2025) https://t.co/EZVocXbneE
US Dollar's Advance Continues but Verbal Threats Lift the Yen: The Middle East war rages on. The Houthis have entered the fray and there is risk that it shuts the Bab El-Mandeb Strait. Aluminum and steel facilities have been reportedly...
"WTO reform talks collapse over US-Brazil standoff" https://t.co/mWuUR2PKbn "The failure to extend the moratorium opened the door to countries to impose tariffs on digital services." https://t.co/uEGCJ2r00s
Good Morning from #Germany, where #inflation is picking up again on the back of the oil and gas shock. In North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), the country’s most populous state, CPI rose 1.2% MoM; the biggest increase since Sep 2022. Year-on-year, NRW...
#tradeXpresso: new econometric evidence found that an increase in #Mode5Services increase agricultural exports: https://t.co/iXzkgkHHzs One day, multilateral trade rules could evolve to follow new business realities: https://t.co/oZ5tuJYjhk
$USD is mostly firmer. $JPY is the notable exception. Escalated verbal intervention and news that the BOJ would consider a larger than usual rater move, have encouraged a pullback from around JPY160.40. NY may be less worried about intervention....
