Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global Economy Pulse
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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
India services PMI drops to 57.5, hitting 14‑month low
India's services Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 57.5 in March, a 14‑month low, while input‑price inflation reached a 45‑month high. Job creation rose for a third consecutive month, the strongest since mid‑2025, even as manufacturing PMI slipped to 53.9 and export orders stayed resilient despite weaker domestic demand and tourism.
The Financial Times letter urges policymakers to learn from the recent crisis‑driven subsidies that strained public finances. It argues that transparent targeting, clear exit strategies, and market‑based incentives can prevent future fiscal burdens. The author highlights Brazil’s experience with pandemic and energy subsidies as a cautionary example. By adopting disciplined fiscal frameworks, governments can safeguard budgets while still supporting vulnerable sectors.
We are getting to that point of doom on Iran where X got to on Ukraine. Back then without gas and food we were going to be cholipping frozen, starved, dead Europeans of the streets. This time it's oil, gas,...
My job is to entertain you most of the time, occasionally quell sensationalist headlines, and so forth. You know, the normal stuff. But each day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed is a growing global catastrophe that people are sleepwalking into. That’s the...
Singapore’s elite fine‑dining scene has seen reservations plunge 30‑50% at two‑Michelin‑starred restaurants since the Iran war began. Operators blame flight disruptions and market uncertainty, while some venues note a shift toward regional tourists.
The United States’ 50% tariff on aluminum imports, lifted from a 10% rate in 2018, is being called counterproductive as the Iran‑Israel conflict chokes shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Industry analysts say the duty adds a “Midwest premium” that...
Irish Farmers Association president Francie Gorman wrote to Agriculture Minister Martin Heydon demanding the EU suspend the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism for fertiliser imports. The plea comes as natural‑gas‑linked fertiliser prices have risen by about 66% since early March and...
U.S. and Iranian hostilities have slashed daily tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz by up to 95%, pushing Brent crude above $113 per barrel and inflating marine insurance to double‑digit percentages. The disruption fuels market anxiety while regional diplomats...
Foreign investors dumped a net 30.3 trillion won ($20 billion) from South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI in March, the largest monthly outflow on record. The sell‑off coincided with the won sliding to its lowest level since 2009, intensifying concerns over capital flows and...
JPMorgan Chase’s head strategist publicly dismissed market speculation that the Federal Reserve will lower rates in the second half of 2026. The warning aims to curb premature corporate financing moves and recalibrate FP&A forecasts across the economy.
The Macrotourist examines whether rising oil prices or higher interest rates are the primary drag on economic growth. Using recent data, the piece shows oil spikes have historically preceded slowdowns, but recent Fed tightening appears to have a more immediate...
Brent crude rose above $115 a barrel, up $3 over the weekend, as the Middle East war entered its fifth week. The conflict, which began on February 28 with Israeli and U.S. airstrikes in Iran, has tightened global oil supplies....
I’ve been describing the supply loss from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as an “air pocket” moving through the normal flow of oil out of the Gulf Helpful map from JPM highlighting when that air pocket will “land” in...
At month‑end, pension funds, insurers and asset managers rebalance portfolios, triggering large foreign‑exchange trades. These flows, often billions of dollars, concentrate around the London 4 p.m. fix and can move major pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY. When U.S. equities...
Mainland Chinese technology firms are increasingly listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with IPOs jumping 153% to 76 companies last year. The surge reflects a strategic shift toward Hong Kong as a gateway for capital, international customers, and regulatory credibility amid...
Below is an example of a new and ongoing economic risk to the US economy from the US-Israeli War on Iran — What begins as a "cost of living" problem (Energy Price Shock), if sustained, risks evolving into a "fewer...
The paper by Bhasin and Loungani (2026a) examines over 200 fiscal consolidation episodes across advanced and emerging economies, revealing that specific design choices—such as timing with available monetary space, tax‑based versus spending‑based instruments, and the speed of adjustment—can dramatically alter...
After three weeks at sea, the Russian‑flagged tanker Anatoly Kolodkin, loaded with about 730,000 barrels of crude (roughly $62 million), arrived off Cuba on March 31. Despite a Trump‑era embargo, the U.S. administration quietly permitted the ship to dock, ending Cuba’s oil...
Pakistan has leveraged crypto diplomacy to secure a non‑binding stable‑coin agreement with World Liberty Financial, the Trump family‑backed platform, after a high‑profile visit by CEO Zachary Witkoff in January. Bilal Bin Saqib, a self‑styled “crypto bro,” now chairs the Pakistan...
a surprisingly good month for putin. russia making bank on oil, gas. fertilizer. us sanctions suspended. us weapons now prioritized for iran war. russia supporting iran without consequence. and a russian tanker with oil now allowed through to cuba by...
Britain’s finance minister Rachel Reeves will tell her G7 counterparts not to impose unilateral trade barriers while the Iran war rages, warning that protectionist steps could undermine energy security. She will argue that coordinated action is essential to keep energy...
Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff predicts China’s yuan will join the ranks of global reserve currencies within five years. He argues that the U.S. dollar faces a legitimacy crisis due to mounting debt, political fragmentation, and waning confidence among central banks....
The United States has authorized a Russian‑flagged tanker, the Anatoly Kolodkin, to deliver between 650,000 and 730,000 barrels of crude oil to Cuba, temporarily easing a long‑standing de facto oil blockade. The move coincides with a broader, short‑term relaxation of Russia‑related...
Parmesan Reggiano exports surpassed the 50% threshold last year, reaching nearly 75,000 tonnes, a 2.7% increase driven by stronger U.S. shipments that grew 2.3% despite a 25% tariff. Domestic sales in Italy fell 10% as the aging population cuts back...
Iran‑backed Houthis entered the Yemen conflict, firing missiles and drones at Israel and threatening to block the strategic Bab al‑Mandab Strait. U.S. officials are reportedly weighing a ground operation against Iran, though timelines remain vague. Oil prices jumped 2‑3% over...
The article highlights a sharp rise in US Treasury yields after an inflation shock tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The 10‑year note closed at 4.44%, and analysts warn that a move toward 5% would confirm fears...
The White House will release the FY 2026 federal budget on April 3, three months later than the statutory February 2 deadline. The accompanying Economic Report of the President must follow within ten days, setting the fiscal agenda for the...
China’s housing market has entered a six‑year correction that mirrors Japan’s 1990s Lost Decade, with prices falling, construction slowing, and developers facing defaults. The sector once drove roughly one‑third of China’s GDP and now holds about 70% of household wealth,...
Uganda’s merchandise exports jumped 72% year‑over‑year, reaching $1.45 billion in January 2026. The surge was driven primarily by a 182% rise in gold shipments, which alone generated $914 million, and strong coffee earnings. The country posted a $147 million trade surplus for the...
Betting platforms Polymarket and Kalshi indicate a 70% probability that U.S. forces will enter Iran by April 30, while forecasting a peak WTI price of $145 per barrel by 2026. Both markets also show recession odds climbing to 36% for that...
The article argues that the Federal Reserve’s 24,000‑person workforce is bloated and calls for a 20‑30% staff reduction, especially among economists. It urges a comprehensive audit of the Fed’s self‑funded budget, which has consistently outpaced federal spending. The piece highlights...
The Bank of Japan left its short‑term interest rate unchanged at the March 18‑19 policy meeting and issued a “Summary of Opinions” documenting the board’s discussion. The summary outlines members’ views on domestic and global growth, inflation, employment, and the...
Oil prices jumped sharply after the Iran‑Israel conflict entered its fourth week, prompting a sell‑off in European equities. Traders cite higher energy costs and heightened geopolitical risk as the main drivers of the market slide.
China's Ministry of Agriculture announced a country‑wide rollout of sensor‑rich, cloud‑based farming platforms for the spring season, though financial details were not disclosed. At the same time, Herbalife's $55 million acquisition of Bioniq and a $33 billion US‑Indonesia trade pact underscore how...
The problem was that Trump put the big tariffs on the upstream inputs that would’ve helped America industry be competitive. With those high tariffs it makes American industry less competitive with imports from the other industrial powers like China Korea,...
Larry Fink: oil could hit $150/bbl — even AFTER a ceasefire — if Iran remains a threat. Brent is already at $112. The tail risk isn't priced. Equities are still trading like this ends cleanly. What does $150 oil do to inflation? To...
Zimbabwe's gold exports are being hit by Middle East tensions that have disrupted key shipping routes. The United Arab Emirates, which accounts for 45% of Zimbabwe's gold export revenue, is affected as the Strait of Hormuz closure forces vessels around...
However bad you think things are in the United States, they're worse in Canada and the UK.
A Hormuz toll run by Iran. Think of the logistics costs and impact. It could be considered a war failure by the US and Israel.
JPMorgan and asset manager Pimco warned that the bond market is downplaying the risk of a sharp economic slowdown triggered by the ongoing US‑Iran conflict. Crude oil has surged past $110 a barrel, intensifying inflation pressures. Traders have largely fixated...
Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since September 2022, rising 52% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months. https://t.co/KYmqkbca60
A stunning 53% spread between the best and worst performing S&P 500 sectors so far this year: -Energy $XLE: +41% -Financials $XLF: -12% This is what stagflation looks like... https://t.co/mjjvgXsRDs
Global economy could collapse by early May: Analyst issues stark warning over oil crisis https://t.co/HeVyeLGS3s
Good thing the Fed has plenty of room to tighten conditions to address this… Oh wait…. https://t.co/xZ0zMju2vr https://t.co/uMkuuXymWU
Price increases since the start of the Iran war... Heating Oil: +77% European Natural Gas: +71% Brent Crude Oil: +58% WTI Crude Oil: +51% Urea: +48% Diesel: +44% Sulfur: +43% Gasoline: +42% Fertilizer: +29% Coal: +21% Palm Oil: +14% Iron Ore: +7% Rice: +7% US Natural Gas: +6%
My latest with @davidlin_TV on physical vs. paper oil markets: "The physical markets are trading well above the paper market prices. Eventually, the paper market is going to be MUGGED BY REALITY, & the price of the paper market will be...
Geopolitical risk is rising. Oil is volatile. Supply chains are under pressure. And high yield spreads sit near historic lows. Something has to give. $JOJO. https://t.co/0h0KmfyB5U
The S&P 500 is down 7% in the first 59 trading days of 2026, the 14th worst start to a year in history. $SPX https://t.co/giuunxMRVO
The world's poorest will bear the brunt of the energy crisis caused by the Iran War and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
the juxtaposition of crude prices (white, Brent) and the S&P 500 (blue) last week is a great snapshot of the current macro moment https://t.co/SUUMhbRJuY
Tariffs. Trade wars. Geopolitical escalation. And credit spreads are still near historic lows. The market is pricing in perfection during chaos. $JOJO rotates when the signal says it's time.
