Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435B yen carry‑trade despite modest rate hike
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, underpinning a $435 billion carry‑trade between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate increase in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary of a sudden tightening that could force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
Russia banked on a windfall after oil prices spiked when the Strait of Hormuz closed and the United States briefly eased sanctions on its crude. The surge lifted Urals prices near Brent, temporarily rescuing a revenue stream that had collapsed by half. However, a coordinated Ukrainian drone campaign has knocked out roughly 40% of Russia’s seaborne export capacity at Black Sea and Baltic hubs. In response, Moscow is considering a ban on gasoline exports to protect domestic fuel supplies.
India’s Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal will travel to Canada in May 2026 to head a high‑level business delegation. The visit follows the launch of comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA) negotiations on March 2, 2026, and aims to accelerate the...
The most correlated macro data that explains the 10-2 yield curve is the unemployment rate. Why? The short end drives most of the movements in the curve, and employment heavily influences the short end via Fed policy. This relationship goes...
If there is one takeaway from whats happening geopolitically right now, its that cross-border payments were built for a stable world and we don't live in one right now. Settlement still runs through corridors and intermediaries that seize up the moment...
India emerged as the lone dissenter among 166 WTO members, successfully blocking the China‑led Investment Facilitation for Development (IFD) agreement at the MC14 in Yaoundé. The move underscored New Delhi’s commitment to preserving the WTO’s consensus rule and protecting core...
2026 Pump-Then-Dump Risks in Both Gold and Crude - Gold's big green 2026 annual candle to its Jan. 29 high of $5,595 an ounce risks turning red by year-end -- particularly if the Strait of Hormuz is secured -- with...
The European Union’s next enlargement round faces a crossroads as member states clash over speed and criteria. A German Council policy paper highlights Germany’s shift toward geopolitically‑driven, merit‑based accession, while the EU rejected a fast‑track proposal for Ukraine, insisting on...
A West Asia conflict‑driven LPG shortage has hit Uttarakhand, forcing hotels and restaurants to turn to biogas, CNG and other alternatives. Operators cite rising costs and supply gaps, while officials warn the disruption could linger.
SBI Funds Management warned that the ongoing Israel‑Iran conflict could pressure the Indian rupee, reduce outbound remittances and widen the fiscal deficit. The alert comes as oil prices surge, the rupee weakens and global investors adopt a defensive stance.
British government bonds suffered the steepest price drops in the latest worldwide bond rout, with 10‑year gilt yields jumping to 5% after the Bank of England kept its policy rate at 3.75%. Analysts link the sell‑off to the BOE’s stance,...
Bursa Malaysia warned that investors will likely adopt a defensive stance next week, citing the escalating Israel‑Iran conflict as a key drag on market sentiment. The exchange’s cautious outlook underscores how geopolitical risk is shaping equity flows in the region.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the Israeli military will further expand the security buffer zone along the southern Lebanese border. The move aims to strengthen Israel's defensive posture amid rising cross‑border fire from Hezbollah. Netanyahu framed the expansion...
Markets have shifted from expecting Federal Reserve cuts to pricing in rate hikes for 2026. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows about a 30% chance rates will end the year higher than the current 3.50‑3.75% range, while odds of cuts...
US is "self-sufficient in food & energy"... ...but US food & energy supply chains are now HIGHLY centralized, fragile, & long (& usually stretch back to China.) "US is self-sufficient in food & energy" is like the man who drowned in a...
The ‘100k troops on land in Iran’ is the new risk narratives for prolonged war and confirmation of escalation of inflation which would lead in global rate hikes again. Rumble in the Jungle is here…
The European Central Bank’s annual Frankfurt conference highlighted a sober mood as policymakers grapple with the lingering energy‑price shock and geopolitical risks from the war in the Middle East. President Christine Lagarde’s keynote outlined a "graduated response" strategy, emphasizing scenario‑based...
trump can’t reopen the strait of hormuz with an air campaign. and the iranians aren’t going to accept that outcome willingly. ground troops are coming.
French factory closures rose nearly 30% in 2025, with 160 plants shutting versus 121 in 2024. The surge is linked to intensified competition from Asian manufacturers, new US tariffs on European steel and aluminum, and higher energy costs. New factory...
The faster UAE closes money window on Iran, quicker China becomes Iran's banker. 1)China pays for Iranian oil into Chnse bank accts2) Iran buys gold w CNY in Shanghai's CNY gold mkt & do what Russia did w China after...
The market heads into a volatile week as the Iran‑Israel conflict sustains high oil prices and fuels inflation worries. Investors will focus on the March non‑farm payrolls, expected to add about 60,000 jobs, alongside ADP, JOLTS and consumer‑confidence releases. A...
Indonesia will reduce its free school‑meal programme from six to five days a week starting March 31, aiming to save roughly 40 trillion rupiah (about US$2.3 billion). The cut is part of a broader austerity push to shield the world’s largest Southeast Asian...
The article argues that the economics of war reach far beyond energy prices and stock market swings, encompassing democratic war initiation, the military‑industrial complex, and Big Oil’s profit motives. It highlights recent research showing that populist nationalism in advanced democracies...
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $69 billion of 2‑year notes on March 24, achieving a 3.936% high yield. The bid‑to‑cover ratio slipped to 2.44, indicating weaker demand than the previous month. The softening reflects heightened inflation worries sparked by a Middle‑East oil shock...
I think a lot of people overlook that NEOM is as much a strategic play on future green steel production as it is a weird futuristic city. Also, Saudi is via the project positioning itself to be - in the...
Oil spiked above $99 as Middle East tensions escalate. This week's jobs and confidence data will show if the economy can handle the shock or if cracks are starting to emerge. 🟢 Open https://t.co/muP4Yrt2q1
Emerging‑market assets have entered their steepest monthly decline since 2022, with stocks down about 10% and local‑currency bond yields at two‑year highs. Asset managers TT International and AllianceBernstein are buying beaten‑down EM bonds, betting that central banks will cut rates...
Turkey is selling gold to support the lira. Over the past two weeks, the central bank has sold around 58 tons (~$8 billion). At the same time, since 2020, Turkey has been among the top three gold buyers (alongside China and Poland)....
Before the Battle for Hormuz, Europeans were paying about 3x more for nat gas than US consumers. Today, they are paying about 6x. Europe has to drill. Chart below is from my latest piece. https://t.co/pfIpV5UZy3
Timothy Garton Ash’s brief post underscores a rallying call for a stronger, more integrated Europe, warning that the continent’s future hinges on overcoming fragmented national politics. He highlights a staggering €64 trillion (≈ $70 trillion) investment question that Europe must address to remain...
"More expensive oil is bad for Europe, Japan and Korea, all big importers. It is actually a net benefit to the U.S., as an exporter and the world’s biggest producer." — The Wall Street Journal Russia and the Middle East also benefit.
If Israel/US attack Iranian oil fields and power plants, they are not going to sit back...they'll attack oil fields, desalinisation plants and power assets in the Gulf. Then, we'll get an economic depression.
The Shanghai Composite index, after a 143‑point plunge that marked the year’s biggest single‑day drop, rebounded to close the week at 3,913.72 points, a 1.1% decline for the week. Energy, metals and new‑energy stocks led the recovery while overall market...
UK move away from US for security. Would this also affect trade? What would Trump do?
As warned: Iran Risk Is Not Priced In A frank talk with @RealJohnGaltFla of @MacroEdgeRes predicting a deeper pullback driven by Trump-Netanyahu's War on Iran that causes higher oil & yields AND capital leaving risk assets. Inflation & recession not...
Confused about all the e-commerce news? There might be a good reason for it. There are two co-existing definitions of “e-commerce” in trade policy. They refer to fundamentally different things. Both are very hot topics at the moment. /1
Iran's 5 demands include sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. That's a non-starter. Trump extended the deadline 10 more days. Iran rejected the 15-point ceasefire plan. Markets need to price in a LONG conflict. Not a headline. A regime. $XLE $USO https://t.co/WWkv5lwoiG
For our weekly wrap, @CultishCreative and I cover all ends of the spectrum. We've got Bob Elliott on the oil shock We've got Larry Swedroe on why private credit panic may be overblown And we've got the 100 Year Thinkers of...
My latest with @davidlin_TV on Iran: "Since the war started, Iran's inflation has come down from 87% to 67%. Iranian oil exports have increased substantially at higher prices with lower discounts. You won't read these FACTS in the press." https://t.co/tnO36Tw8XU
"bonds—often a place of safety in times of market turmoil—have offered no relief, hit by worries that resurgent inflation will keep interest rates higher than expected and undermine the value of their fixed payouts." https://t.co/acyJLqVIXP https://t.co/7yOQbeNrn2
China Urges Philippines To Stabilize Ties Amid Maritime Row. China causes the problem. Then asks the Philippines to improve the situation. https://t.co/hyHl0iwvov
The “weaponization of the dollar” has profound implications for financial plumbing, the dollar itself, and investment flows—including gold. @edwardfishman’s Chokepoints is a must-read on history/key players/dynamics. Thanks @nfergus for the recommendation. https://t.co/4AcmzUniud
Australia LNG offline for weeks. Half its exports hit. This market has no buffer left. https://t.co/wV9mseaJW8 #LNG #EnergyCrisis #Oil #Geopolitics
Bit of a deep dive with a handsome economist (me) on how America's economic vulnerability undermines its military advantage. https://t.co/WZQ5ou95bM
While Trump says that Iran has “very few rockets left”, US intel suggests that only 1/3 of Iran’s missile arsenal is confirmed to be destroyed. Who says Trump is inconsistent? He consistently ignores US intelligence. https://t.co/7whRgOX8kz
Japan is switching naphtha imports from the Middle East to other countries, says Prime Minister Takaichi 🇯🇵 ⛽️ Japan relies on the Mid East for >70% of naphtha imports, and has 20 days of stockpiles Shortages threaten supply of petrochemicals, plastics,...
No major inflation scare yet... 1yr inflation swap only about 3%.. not alarming by historical trends Torsten at Apollo https://t.co/YfD4ihEjtb
2Y yield: 3.89%. 5Y yield: crossed 4%. Everyone was positioned for rate cuts. Everyone was wrong. Bloomberg calls it the biggest positioning squeeze in years. The bond market just delivered a reality check. $TLT $IEF https://t.co/jyYH8ebPrR
I'm starting a new weekly video every Saturday morning on markets and macro. The first episode was yesterday. I discussed why upside to oil is limited even if we embargo Iranian oil. Brent at $115 already prices significant disruption. You...
⭕️For now, whatever your estimates of global oil consumption growth for 2026, subtract about 300 kb/d from it. This number will change as we move forward.
I support an embargo of Iranian oil. The reason is Russia. We never embargoed Russia. If we had, there's a good chance it wouldn't still be wreaking havoc in Ukraine. You just can't allow the life blood of these regimes...
