Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Oil Climbs as Netanyahu and Trump Remarks Stoke Worries over Rising Middle East Tensions
Oil prices surged on Monday after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that the conflict with Iran was "not over," and U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Iran's cease‑fire proposal. West Texas Intermediate rose 3.08% to $95.42 a barrel, while Brent climbed 3.16% to $104.49. Citi analysts said the market remains skewed to the upside, citing the risk of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure. The rally reflects heightened geopolitical risk despite ample inventories and strategic petroleum reserve releases.
Trump‑Xi Imagery Hints China Reopens to U
The expected images of @realDonaldTrump and Xi together may still send a signal within China that it’s more acceptable again to engage with U.S. businesses, said Michael Hart, @AmCham_China. “Since U.S. military actions earlier this year, Chinese officials have been...
US Rejects China’s CEO Meetups to Avoid Perceived Closeness
The U.S. government declined #China’s invitation to organize industry-specific meetings between senior Chinese leaders and U.S. CEOs, thinking it could make American businesses appear too close to Beijing, according to a U.S. executive with direct knowledge of the arrangements. The...
Guest Contribution: “Does the Yield Curve Still Predict Recessions? U.S. and OECD Evidence”
Academic Mufan Chen revisits the yield curve’s recession‑predictive power across the United States and seven OECD economies using monthly data from 1995‑2025. Probit models forecast recession risk 12 months ahead, comparing a spread‑only specification, one adding short‑term rates, and another...
China’s 2025 Chip and Magnet Ban Elevates Trump‑Xi Stakes
Because of China's global export restrictions on rare earth permanent magnets and Nexperia chips in 2025, virtually **everyone** has a stake in the outcome of the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting. by @anniekbyx https://t.co/MX4XRhYr1h
Chinese Publishing Delegation Showcases 600 Titles at 2026 Buenos Aires Book Fair
The China National Publications Import and Export Group led a delegation that displayed more than 600 Chinese titles and staged 11 literary events at the 2026 Buenos Aires International Book Fair. The high‑profile presence underscores Beijing's push to expand Chinese...
U.S. Rare‑Earth Push Targets Africa to Cut China’s Grip
The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation announced a $2 billion portfolio focused on sub‑Saharan rare‑earth projects, pairing early‑stage grants from the USTDA with large‑scale financing. The move seeks to build African processing capacity and blunt China’s hold on the critical‑minerals supply...
Honda Suspends $15 Billion Canadian EV Plant Amid US Tariff Dispute
Honda Motor Co. announced it is suspending development of its planned $15 billion electric‑vehicle complex in Canada, blaming U.S. tariff policy and sluggish American EV demand. The indefinite pause adds to a wave of cancellations that threatens Canada’s EV supply‑chain ambitions.
BofA Says Fed Rate Outlook, Not Fundamentals, Caps Dollar Strength
Bank of America strategists say the U.S. dollar’s lackluster performance stems from market pricing of only modest further Fed tightening. The bank forecasts an 80,000‑job April payroll beat, which could shift expectations and lift the greenback.
Guyana’s FDI Hits 35% of GDP, Signaling Surge in Investor Confidence
President Irfaan Ali announced that foreign direct investment in Guyana has risen to roughly 35% of GDP, a level he says reflects heightened global confidence in the country’s economy, political stability, and diversification agenda. The surge underscores Guyana’s emergence as...
Gold Jumps 1.8% as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Ignite Safe‑Haven Demand
Gold surged 1.83% this week, with the price of 10 g 24‑carat bullion reaching ₹1,51,078 (≈ $610) in India. The rally was driven by renewed clashes between US and Iranian forces near the Strait of Hormuz, outweighing a robust US jobs report...
Administration's Blunder Strains Buffalo‑Ontario Cross‑Border Relations
A first person essay on the relationship between Buffalo and Ontario and how the current administration in one of the most spectacular and unnecessary geopolitical fuckups in recent time screwed this up. https://t.co/OVbI5E2nve
Netanyahu Wants to Wean Israel Off US Military Support, He Tells CBS
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told CBS he wants to end the United States’ $3.8 billion annual military aid within a decade, aiming for zero financial support by 2036. The plan coincides with Israel’s push to deepen economic and security ties...
UK Permanent Jobs Fall at Fastest Pace Since January
Permanent job placements in the UK fell sharply in April, with the KPMG‑REC index dropping to 47.5, the steepest decline since January. The temporary‑billing index rose to 50.4, marking the first expansion in three months and the strongest reading in...
Middle East War Drives Increase in Construction Material Costs in Brazil
The war in the Middle East is tightening global supply chains and driving up prices for cement, steel and other construction inputs. Brazil, a major importer of these commodities, has seen material costs climb roughly 12% year‑over‑year, pressuring developers and...
Gold Falls on Renewed Inflation Concerns
Gold futures settled virtually unchanged at $4,718.70, slipping 0.04%, as renewed inflation concerns dampened demand for the traditional safe‑haven metal. In contrast, silver surged 6.3% to $85.49 per ounce, marking its biggest one‑day gain since February and highlighting a shift...
Iran Sees Ceasefire Extension as Strategic Advantage
iran continues to believe they have the upper hand in negotiations…and that extending the “ceasefire” benefits them, not the americans.
Oil Prices Rise as Prospects for U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Fizzle
Oil prices rose on Sunday after the United States and Iran failed to finalize a peace agreement, prompting President Trump to call Iran’s response “totally unacceptable.” Tehran continues to negotiate a short‑term, 30‑day cease‑fire that would lift its blockade of...
Share Futures Ease, Dollar Gains as Gulf Talks Teeter
Share futures in Asia slipped as the dollar edged higher following a deadlock in U.S.-Iran negotiations that left the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut. Brent crude jumped 2.8% to about $104 a barrel and U.S. crude rose 2.7% to $98,...
Trump Visits China, Vote on Sara Duterte Impeachment, SoftBank Earnings
U.S. President Donald Trump will travel to Beijing for a summit that aims to preserve the trade‑war truce with China and address sensitive issues such as Taiwan, after a delay caused by the Iran‑Israel conflict. In Manila, the House of...
Fiscal Policy Response to Iran War Risks Worsening Inflation: BIS Chief
Bank for International Settlements (BIS) General Manager Pablo Hernandez de Cos warned that the Iran war could push global inflation higher while dampening growth. He cautioned that an overly expansive fiscal response by governments could amplify price pressures. Central banks,...
Europe’s Wealth Shift by 2030: The New Ranking of Richest Countries
IMF projections show Ireland will lead Europe’s PPP‑adjusted GDP per capita at roughly $182,000 by 2030, while Luxembourg stays on top of nominal euro income at about $165,000. A tight group of small, open economies – Norway, Switzerland, Denmark and...
Beyond GDP: Could the UN Make a Greener Economic Metric a Reality?
A UN‑appointed panel of economists and statisticians released a comprehensive report outlining a new “wellbeing economy” framework that expands economic measurement to include human and planetary health. The proposal recommends integrating natural‑capital accounting, circular‑economy indicators, and social inclusion metrics alongside...
Business Daily
Hundreds of thousands of Argentines are crossing the Andes each year to shop in Chile, where a favorable exchange rate makes well‑known clothing and electronics brands markedly cheaper. President Javier Milei’s recent economic reforms have tamed inflation, giving many Argentines extra...
No Matter How Bizarre It May Sound Europe May Cooperate with China Against Russia
A guest commentary argues that Europe should explore limited cooperation with China to undermine Russia’s war ambitions. It identifies three convergence points: deterring a Russia‑NATO conflict, exploiting China’s role in Russia’s de‑industrialisation, and leveraging NATO’s existence, which aligns with Beijing’s...
How UK Firms Are Responding to the War in Iran: Early Evidence From the Decision Maker Panel
The Bank of England’s Decision Maker Panel shows UK firms are already feeling the impact of the Iran‑triggered energy price surge. Energy costs rose from about 4% of total expenses in 2019 to roughly 6% in 2025, and two‑thirds of...
Dollar Weakening Signals Imminent Rate Cuts and Market Shift
The recent behavior of the US dollar is increasingly consistent with a market anticipating intervention in the rates market ahead. Lower rates and a weaker dollar are no longer optional policies. They are becoming absolutely essential for the system to function under...
IMF Misses Surge in China's Surplus, Predicts Decline
The IMF didn't see the big rise in China's surplus coming. In fact, @IMFNews always forecasts that the surplus will dissipate -- From work in progress with Shahin Vallee 1/ https://t.co/Wp2uhY73cS
Thai Stocks Still Robust in May as Confidence Gains
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) is poised to keep its recovery momentum in May, with the benchmark index expected to stay above the 1,500‑point mark as Middle‑East tensions ease. Foreign investors poured roughly 16.6 billion baht (about $465 million) into Thai...
AI Boom Could Be This Generation’s China Shock
The AI boom may become this generation’s “China shock.” But instead of transforming global manufacturing, it could reshape knowledge work, productivity and economic power. The gains could be enormous. So could the disruption. https://t.co/LplPGs4a32 @fortunemagazine @sashrogel
Oil Jumps as Hormuz Stays Shut After Trump Rebuffs Iran’s Offer
Oil prices surged after President Donald Trump dismissed Iran's latest peace proposal, keeping the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut. Brent crude jumped up to 4.5% to $105.80 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate hovered near $100. The rejection highlights escalating...
ASEAN’s Proposed Resilience Measures Must Go Into ‘Full Gear’, but Domestic Priorities a Stumbling Block
At the 48th ASEAN Summit, leaders agreed to accelerate regional resilience measures amid Middle‑East supply shocks, including a proposed fuel stockpile and a standby food‑security arrangement. The ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement (APSA) was highlighted as a framework for collective oil...
Powell’s Legacy as Fed Chair Is Fighting Inflation and Trump. He May Lose the Battle Against Both.
Jerome Powell’s tenure as Federal Reserve chair will be judged by two intertwined battles: taming the post‑pandemic inflation surge and defending the central bank’s independence from political pressure, especially from former President Donald Trump and his allies. After a series...
Commentary: What the Trump-Xi Meeting in Beijing Means for Asia
President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping are set to meet in Beijing, aiming to extend the one‑year US‑China trade truce agreed at the Busan summit last October. The talks occur amid the worst global energy shock in decades, driven...
Debt Is Fine with Assets, Dangerous as Credit‑card Bill
The national debt is like a mortgage — not the problem, as long as there's a beautiful house attached to it. The worry is when it starts looking more like a credit card bill. https://t.co/RyhRr47GOI
China Acquires US Defense Assets Cheaply as Americans Fund Deficits
“Dollar dominance” as defined by many here on X = China buys up the US defense industrial base on the cheap while US Boomers & Banks buy negative real yielding USTs to finance US deficits (aka lose capital on a...
Why the UAE’s Opec Exit Spells the Beginning of the End of Gulf Unity
On April 28 the United Arab Emirates gave OPEC a three‑day notice and left the cartel, citing security considerations rather than production quotas. The move follows a growing security realignment with the United States and Israel, highlighted by Israel’s deployment of...
China Offers Aid as US Builds Walls
My take in @FortuneMagazine on the pivot away from the USA to China: “While Bessent was busying himself on Fox News, China was busy making friends by supplying those in distress with much-needed oil and other commodities…While Washington raises walls, Beijing opens doors.” https://t.co/E4hn2YdcN2
Trump Says Iran’s Response to U.S. Peace Proposal Is Unacceptable
President Donald Trump dismissed Iran’s reply to a U.S. peace proposal as "totally unacceptable," offering no details. Tehran’s semi‑official response called for an immediate end to the war on all fronts, a halt to the U.S. naval blockade, guarantees against...
China Leverages SOEs to Weaponize Import Bans
I am not the first person to observe that when China decides to make a political point by not importing it makes that point forcefully -- by zero'ing out its imports from a specific country. Big SoEs control a...
America’s Economy Grows Four Times Faster Than EU—Here’s What Changed
U.S. GDP grew at an annualized 2% in Q1 2026, four times the eurozone's 0.1% rise. The surge was driven by a 9.3% jump in federal spending and an 8.7% rise in business investment, with AI infrastructure accounting for roughly three‑quarters...
Trump Trip to China to Focus on Iran, AI, and Trade
President Donald Trump is set to land in Beijing for a three‑day visit focused on artificial intelligence, trade issues, and the ongoing Iran conflict. Senior U.S. officials say no large Chinese investment proposal will be on the table, tempering expectations...
Tariff Fears Debunked: Foreign Investors Still Buying US Assets
Remember a year ago when they told us that foreigners would sell US assets due to tariffs? Nice one from @Callum_Thomas putting that to bed. https://t.co/okFJv64ojx
Build US Factories, Let Chinese EVs Boost Electrification
Allowing Chinese EVs to be sold in the United States would accelerate electrification Just require them to build factories in the United States to sell without any tariffs.
Netanyahu Says Iran War Is 'Not Over' As Trump Rejects Latest Iranian Offer
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared the war with Iran "not over," stressing that enriched uranium and enrichment sites must be removed and dismantled. He urged the United States and Israel to physically take the nuclear material out of Iran....
Sherritt International Halts Cuban Nickel Production Amid U.S. Sanctions
Sherritt International Corp announced the shutdown of its nickel mining, refining and power‑generation operations in Cuba after U.S. sanctions, sending its Toronto‑listed shares tumbling 42% on the news and leaving Cuba without a key source of hard currency and electricity.
Iran Responds to U.S. Peace Proposal as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Persist
Iran has formally replied to the latest U.S. peace proposal aimed at ending the ten‑week conflict that has choked the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. plan offers to lift the blockade on Iranian ports if Tehran permits unrestricted shipping, but...
Botswana Governor Calls for Deepening African Capital Markets at IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings
Botswana’s central bank governor, Lesego Moseki, used the IMF and World Bank’s 2026 Spring meetings in Washington to champion deeper domestic capital markets as a catalyst for African growth. He chaired the IMF’s Africa Group 1 Constituency of 14 nations and...
China's April Coal Imports Drop 12.5% YoY to 33.08 Mt, Value Falls 6.2%
China's customs data show April coal imports slid to 33.08 million tonnes, a 12.5% year‑over‑year decline and 15.3% below March. The drop translated into a $2.62 billion import bill, 6.2% lower than a year earlier, underscoring softening demand for thermal coal amid...
Opinion | The Stakes of the Trump-Xi Summit
President Trump’s Beijing visit aims to secure “stability” with China amid trade, technology, and Iran talks. The most realistic outcome is a tariff truce and a pledge from Beijing not to weaponize rare‑earths again. Xi may seek U.S. purchases of...