Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
The United Arab Emirates is fast‑tracking a new trade corridor that connects its eastern Khorfakkan port in Sharjah to Saudi Arabia’s Dammam, allowing cargo to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The corridor combines maritime access via the Gulf of Oman with over‑land links across the UAE, reducing dependence on the chokepoint that handles about 20 % of global oil shipments. Expanded facilities at Khorfakkan can accommodate larger vessels, while the over‑land segment promises faster, more secure movement of goods. No official launch date has been set, but the project underscores growing Gulf efforts to mitigate geopolitical disruption.
Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel after the United States and Israel attacked Iran, prompting Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of global oil. The disruption has sent fuel costs soaring across Africa, prompting...
Nigeria’s parallel‑market naira slipped sharply even as foreign‑exchange inflows surged 45% to $4.4 bn in February. The rally in offshore portfolio flows and a sharp rise in central‑bank dollar sales highlight a liquidity boost that is not enough to offset structural...
The United States reported a $190.7 billion current‑account deficit for the fourth quarter, a sharp reduction driven by stronger foreign investment earnings than outflows. The swing eases strain on the dollar, lifts equity sentiment and fuels debate over the durability of...
Hungary announced it will cease gas deliveries to Ukraine, intensifying a regional energy standoff. The move threatens Ukraine's power supply as the country awaits a €90 billion EU loan that Hungary is delaying, while broader sanctions and oil market shifts add...
Russia is adopting a calibrated stance in the Iran war, offering diplomatic backing and possibly drone assistance to Tehran while steering clear of direct military engagement. Simultaneously, Moscow has dispatched modest oil shipments to Cuba as low‑cost geopolitical signaling. The...
The Treasury’s most recent five‑year note auction attracted demand that fell short of recent averages, prompting a modest rise in mid‑term yields. The weaker bid‑to‑cover ratio underscores growing caution among investors amid heightened geopolitical risk and inflation concerns.
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced a five‑day emergency waiver permitting the sale of E15 gasoline across the United States. The move targets gasoline that has risen to almost $4 per gallon as the Iran war tightens oil supplies, and it...
India has asked WTO members to carefully reconsider the e‑commerce duty moratorium, warning of revenue losses and an ambiguous definition of "electronic transmissions." The United States, meanwhile, is pressing for the moratorium to become a permanent, duty‑free regime to protect...
India’s Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal conducted bilateral meetings with delegations from the EU, Russia, New Zealand, Peru and Mexico on the sidelines of the WTO’s 14th ministerial conference. The talks reviewed progress on the recently concluded India‑EU free trade agreement and...
The Philippines is entering a belt‑tightening phase as a four‑week‑old Middle East conflict drives global oil prices higher, eroding the peso and inflating consumer costs. A temporary suspension of petroleum excise taxes will cut government revenue by roughly $2.5 billion, potentially...
President Donald Trump announced that “very substantial” talks are ongoing with Iran after Tehran sent a convoy of oil tankers as a goodwill gesture. Iran initially offered eight tankers, later adding two, for a total of ten, reportedly under Pakistani...
You think the S&P 500 Index is too concentrated? Try going to another country for a while. The US is one of the *least* concentrated markets. Here's countries ranked by the % of market made up by top 10 biggest...
The United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, prompting a hard‑power display that many Latin American analysts view as a game changer for regional geopolitics. The move reinforces U.S. coercive dominance while exposing China’s limited military reach,...
U.S. ambassador Warren Stephens said Peter Mandelson’s September resignation slowed the rollout of the UK‑U.S Economic and Prosperity Deal signed in May 2026. While the framework was quickly signed in the Oval Office, implementation has lagged, especially on pharmaceutical funding,...
Lots of hints that Turkey has done a gold swap to raise FX to fund the central bank's intervention to defend the lira. It didn't show up in the CBRT's reserve disclosure for March 19th (reporting is lagged a week). ...
The letters to the editor flag four pressing issues for India. A halted Russian oil import and the Hormuz Strait closure have strained the country’s energy supply, prompting calls for domestic gas, electric‑vehicle adoption, solar power and local oil extraction....
Costa Rica’s colon surged to 465 per U.S. dollar, its strongest level since 2005, marking a 7% gain this year. The rally was driven by robust export growth and increased foreign investment. In response, the central bank intervened, purchasing roughly...
U.S. farmers are confronting a new wave of fertilizer cost pressure as the Middle Eastern conflict has shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key conduit for sulfur imports. The disruption threatens sulfur supplies essential for producing sulfuric acid, a core...
Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Olayemi Cardoso reaffirmed the regulator’s commitment to ongoing reforms, highlighting eleven straight months of disinflation and a newly liberalised foreign‑exchange market that no longer requires intermediaries. He noted that 32 banks have satisfied the latest...
India’s FY 2027 budget faces heightened pressure as the West Asia conflict drives global crude oil to $157 a barrel and natural‑gas prices to $22 per MMBtu, more than double pre‑crisis levels. Higher energy costs are expected to lift fertilizer and...
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, led by Governor Yasir Al Rumayyan, reaffirmed its commitment to global investments despite the rising economic burden of the war with Iran. Al Rumayyan described the kingdom’s macroeconomic and physical position as strong, stable and resilient. He...
South Africa claims France withdrew President Cyril Ramaphosa’s invitation to the June G7 summit after the United States threatened to boycott the meeting if he attended. France, holding the G7 rotating presidency, cited logistical reasons and instead invited Kenya as...
The OECD warns that the Iran‑Israel conflict has halted the global growth upgrade, as near‑total disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz pushes energy prices higher. Global GDP growth is now projected to fall to 2.9% in 2026,...
There are five major forces that together, operate in a big cycle: - Financial force – money, debts, markets, economy - Domestic political force – internal order and disorder, wealth gaps, and conflict between the left and the right - International world order...
The European Commission’s 15th edition of the European List of Ship Recycling Facilities names 41 approved yards, all outside South Asia, despite more than 110 Indian and 23 Bangladeshi yards holding Hong Kong Convention compliance certificates. South Asian facilities now process...
On February 12, 2026 Taiwan and the United States signed the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART), eliminating tariffs on roughly 99 percent of bilateral goods and expanding market access across multiple sectors. Beyond tariff cuts, the pact embeds a security architecture...
Bank credit growth seems to be back big time, with 15% growth at the end of Feb. While we have a global crisis on, the indicators earlier did see good signs. It could suck for a few months, but I...
Just 130 ships have transited the Strait of Hormuz since the war began—barely a day’s worth of traffic under normal conditions. Nearly all have sailed for Asia, with none heading to Europe or the United States. H/T @_MartinKelly_
Market participants are adding bullish options on the Iran conflict as the war shows signs of winding down, according to commentary from recent earnings calls and CLSA research. The shift reflects a broader move to hedge or speculate on geopolitical...
“The oil market is well-supplied” — US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. (… that’s quite a statement after the International Energy Agency had to make the largest ever use of his member’s strategic petroleum reserves…)
Japan imports 94% of its crude from the Middle East. 70% moves through the Strait of Hormuz. When oil spikes, Japan sells Treasuries to defend the yen. When Japan sells Treasuries, yields spike. When yields spike, everything breaks. Watch USD/JPY. $TLT $SPY https://t.co/8Vd43Ls5lB
Crude oil surged past $100 a barrel, its highest level since 2022, prompting a wave of volatility across the S&P 500. Analysts warn that higher input costs and inflation risk could weigh on large‑cap energy, industrial and consumer firms.
The Iran War could end today and the shock would still unfold. The only questions are how big and for how long the shock will last.
Why the current set-up reminds @LizAnnSonders of 1990 (Gulf War + recession): - conflict in Middle East & spike in oil prices - economic & market dislocations - concerns about credit linked to Private Equity Apple🔊https://t.co/2dDJ3eD1p7 Spotify📽️https://t.co/gSpDwqSJC9 https://t.co/hNb5bSJvUv
Houthis warning they could get involved... Like the Strait of Hormuz they can control the Bab al-Mandeb, a similar chokepoint controlling access to and from the Red Sea
CPI in February: 2.4%. Cleveland Fed CPI forecast for March: 3.02%. PCE tracking toward 3.14%. Inflation isn't cooling. Inflation is re-accelerating. The Fed hiked into this once. They'll do it again. $TLT $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/2TPM7EbXp5
The 2-year Treasury yield (blue) is now > the Federal Funds Effective Rate (red) and CPI (green). If you believe the 2-Year leads the FFER, there's less likelihood of a rate cut anytime soon. https://t.co/73ZCycQNlj
Kazakhstan–China Relations: Perceptions of China After the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Gaziza Shakhanova, 2026 https://t.co/lD5RrER3uG
"If this lasts longer than the four to five weeks that the president promised... this could do real and lasting damage." That's the whole game: duration turns a shock into an economic problem. https://t.co/dmeAL0v5ib
If you're interested in what an Iran oil embargo means, how it would work, how it would be enforced, how high oil prices might rise as a result, what would happen to Iran's economy, I discussed all this with @paulkrugman...
Kospi just dropped 3%+. South Korea doesn't move 3% for no reason. Yen carry trade stress. Japan buying yen. Selling Treasuries to do it. Asian contagion doesn't stay in Asia. Watch $EEM. Watch $FXI. $VIX $SPY https://t.co/M3BpoEWXWm
We’re now on the fourth or fifth Iran-driven market reversal this week. Mon: rally on ceasefire talk Tue: selloff after denial Wed: rally on U.S. peace plan Thu: selloff as Iran pushed back Hard to keep up, but put simply, pressure is building inside a...
"For the US, the OECD expects inflation to jump to 4.2% this year... Its price outlook for this year is 1.2 percentage point higher than in December, also because the labor market remains tight with slowing net migration and tariffs...
An investment boom in AI has kept China’s trade volumes on a path to exceed last year’s record levels, offsetting disruptions from higher oil prices in the weeks after war broke out in Iran https://t.co/L3nAViEgYs
Brent crude nearing $100. Citi's CIO says markets show "excessive optimism" on peace. Iran rejected the latest US proposal. 20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. "Excessive optimism" is a polite way of saying: priced wrong. $OIL $XLE $SPY https://t.co/9YTglnhd8a
"Compared with February 2025, the import price index excluding petroleum climbed 2.8% — the most since October 2022 and suggesting the tariff burden is falling primarily on US importers." (The index here does not include tariffs.) https://t.co/BThM0jjJxj https://t.co/QmsfwHVOLd
Old man Trump can't remember whether he was supposed to bring prices down or up https://t.co/1NEJ3Ji5fF
DB: Sectors with higher AI adoption have shown a more significant deceleration in wage growth. @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/a0GkxtUZTB
🇺🇸U.S. export sales met or exceeded expectations last week. Mexico and Colombia led in corn sales, and Germany and Mexico were the leaders in soybeans for new outright sales (China topped net sales, and those were due to a switch...
