Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
In this episode of NatWest’s Currency Exchange, FX strategists Brian Dangerfield and Paul Robson examine why major G10 currency markets have remained unusually calm despite the heightened geopolitical risk from the Iran‑related Middle East conflict. They attribute the lull to market paralysis caused by uncertainty over U.S. and Israeli objectives, shifting dollar positioning, and divergent expectations of de‑escalation versus escalation. Robson highlights the surprising resilience of the British pound, noting that expectations of aggressive Bank of England rate cuts and strong fiscal fundamentals have offset typical downside pressure, while also discussing the yen’s vulnerability to fiscal strain and energy price shocks. Both strategists warn that once the acute crisis eases, lingering fiscal stimulus, especially higher defence spending, will become the dominant driver of currency moves.
Russia’s central bank has begun selling physical gold for the first time in 25 years, offloading 300,000 ounces in January and 200,000 ounces in February 2026. The combined gold and foreign‑currency sales since 2022 total roughly $185 billion, pushing gold reserves...
Good Morning from Germany, where officials are warning that the Iran crisis could cut 2026 growth in half. Internal estimates suggest expansion of just 0.5% in a worst-case scenario, and 0.6% to 0.7% even under less severe assumptions of persistently...
The WTO’s 14th ministerial conference in Yaoundé produced only a skeletal draft, underscoring the organization’s limited immediate output. More significant was the symbolism of a multilateral forum convening in Africa as the United States steps back from WTO leadership. China...
Macro: politicization of money raises policy risk. Key factors: Trump to sign US bills, symbolic reflation tilt. Risks: polarization, FX volatility. Trade insight: hedge USD exposure. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Governments that once shunned price controls are reconsidering them as repeated inflation shocks strain households. Mexico and Spain have introduced caps on essential goods and rent freezes, helping ruling parties boost electoral support. In the UK, Labour, Greens and some...
Global risk isn’t evenly distributed. In 2026, a small group of countries - including Belarus, Lebanon, Sudan, and Venezuela - sit at the top of the global risk ranking, with premiums around 30.9%. At the other end, only 19 countries globally have risk levels below...
The Bank of England is deepening its repo‑led, demand‑driven liquidity framework, with market‑wide facilities now supplying roughly a quarter of sterling reserves. Short‑Term Repo borrowing averages about £100 billion ($125 bn) and Indexed Long‑Term Repo about £70 billion ($87.5 bn) each auction, while the...
Eurozone short‑term rates are climbing in lockstep with Brent oil, which has stayed above $100 per barrel, while longer‑dated rates show signs of strain. The 2‑year‑to‑5‑year segment is flattening and could invert if oil breaches $120, suggesting a potential ECB...
Thailand's manufacturing production index fell 0.04% year‑on‑year in February, missing a 2.4% Reuters poll forecast after a 1.64% rise in January. The dip was driven by temporary refinery maintenance that trimmed petroleum output and a slowdown in car production. Ministry...
President Trump’s latest 10‑day extension of the Iran strike pause acts as a temporary relief valve for equities, preventing an outright market collapse but also stalling any meaningful rebound. The pause coincides with oil hovering around $105 per barrel, creating...
Economists warn that a new oil‑price shock, sparked by recent Middle‑East conflicts, is reviving stagflation risks in the United States. Phillip Braun of Kellogg notes that the current environment mirrors the 1970s, where supply disruptions and accommodative monetary policy fueled...
AIA’s group chief investment officer Mark Konyn discussed how Asia’s financial ecosystem has accelerated change over his three‑decade career. He highlighted how regional crises—from the 1997 Asian financial crisis to the COVID‑19 pandemic—reshaped risk management and regulatory frameworks. Konyn emphasized China’s...
Supply Chain risk is financial risk. “The $30tn US Treasury market is showing growing signs of strain, as turmoil in the Middle East drives swings in bonds that underpin the financial system. The ease of trading in the world’s biggest...
Indonesia signed the U.S. Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) on Feb. 19, 2026, obligating Jakarta to align its domestic regulations with Washington’s security agenda. The pact challenges Indonesia’s long‑standing “free and active” foreign‑policy doctrine and threatens ASEAN’s reputation as a neutral,...
The complexity, uncertainty and fluidity of the Iran war’s impact on oil markets have made it increasingly challenging to compress analysis into 45-second soundbites in 5-7 minute TV interviews — though I’ve done my best over the past 4 weeks. So...
YARDENI RESEARCH CHART OF THE DAY (March 26, 2026) We've been betting on the productivity-led Roaring 2020s. That's still our 60% base case. So far, this scenario has been on the money. However, the war has increased the risks of a...
The EU has expanded its vessel sanctions against Russia’s shadow fleet to almost 600 ships in less than a year, turning a targeted measure into a broad programme. Listings are based largely on limited data sources such as Equasis, AIS...
Ringgit seeing weakness the last few days. It’s now: • 4.00 against USD • 3.12 against SGD Since the US war began, ringgit has weakened against Yuan, Yen, GBP, EUR. Could it be investors becoming a bit concerned about rising fuel subsidy bill?
Headlines & tweets about talks & deals are NOISE at this point THE SIGNAL is rationing, price spikes, policy interventions, & rising stress in import-dependent economies We're in the early stage of CONTAGION This time it's not a novel virus It's a heart attack...
The war between Iran and Israel is choking the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off about 20% of global oil and LNG flows and triggering a cascade of raw‑material shortages across Asia. Companies from South Korean plastic film producers to Chinese...
Oil prices jumped to $106 a barrel, spurring global market declines. Iran's denial of any talks with the United States heightened doubts about a swift cease‑fire in the ongoing West Asia conflict. European stocks and bonds fell as ECB President...
The AI economy looks...really precarious. So @matteowong1 & I did a bunch of reporting to try to figure out what happens when a potential bubble collides with a war in Iran and a potential resource shortage. The answer is...arguably the...
The important thing is that Trump is out of attractive options. Hormuz has to open, or the global economy dies. Iran won’t negotiate and ground wars are messy. Given the size and population of Iran, we likely need a force...
Oil prices have surged as the war in Iran pushes fuel costs higher, reigniting recession concerns across equity markets. Analysts warn that short‑term volatility may mask the benefits of disciplined, long‑term portfolio construction.
Iran has been handed a 15‑point cease‑fire proposal from the United States via Pakistan, but Tehran has ruled out any direct talks with President Donald Trump. The plan, whose details remain largely confidential, touches on sanctions relief, nuclear roll‑back and...
Investors shifted capital into Chinese sovereign and corporate bonds as safe‑haven demand surged, while U.S. Treasury yields moved sharply amid Middle‑East tensions. The reallocation highlights a growing appetite for China’s fixed‑income market despite limited disclosed inflow figures.
China’s industrial sector posted a 15.2% year‑on‑year profit surge in the January‑February period, a dramatic acceleration from the modest 0.6% gain recorded for the entire previous year. The rebound is anchored in stronger export orders, renewed domestic demand and targeted...
The People’s Bank of China is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9089, a key daily fixing watched across Asian FX markets. China’s managed‑floating system permits the yuan to trade within a ±2% band around this midpoint. The...
Oil prices are climbing amid the Iran‑Houthi conflict, reviving 1970s‑style headlines. UBS economist Arend Kapteyn argues that today’s economies are far less oil‑intensive, with oil spending representing a fraction of GDP. In the United States, oil’s share of GDP has...
ING expects tight copper and aluminium supply to support prices into 2026 amid tariffs, weak mine output, and power constraints. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/tight-copper-and-aluminium-supply-keeps.html
Spanish inflation accelerates at fastest pace since 2024 on Iran war https://t.co/Po2qM4DdWA via @basteiro https://t.co/CpZxI7JwYZ
S&P Global has raised its forecast for India's fiscal year 2027 GDP growth to 7.1%, up from its prior estimate. The upgrade reflects a rebound in private investment, resilient consumer spending and export performance, though the agency cautions that volatile...
China is cutting LNG purchases as the Middle East conflict boosts prices 🇨🇳🚢 📉 March imports are poised to fall to lowest level in 8 years ⚠️ Instead of LNG, China is turning to domestic/pipeline gas. This will help free up supply...
Onshore media just reported that: "Two container ships under China's COSCO Shipping Lines have turned back toward the Persian Gulf and have not yet passed through the Strait of Hormuz." I think this is a strategic mistake by Iran.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas kept its benchmark policy rate at 4.25% after an unexpected off‑cycle meeting, citing the sharp oil‑price shock from the Middle East conflict. Domestic fuel costs have surged up to 177%, prompting a national energy emergency...
Iran-India fuel trade begins after strait open sesame, first LPG cargo due this week https://t.co/834nbwZFHx via @ETEnergyWorld
Bank of France chief says the country must continue cutting its deficit https://t.co/hlQK302LUB via @Alanrkatz https://t.co/jy5uVDlDMv
McKinsey’s March 2025 Global Survey shows respondents now view trade‑policy shifts and geopolitical instability as equally disruptive to the world economy, a departure from earlier quarters where geopolitics dominated. Nearly seven‑in‑ten executives anticipate a recession, with demand‑led slowdown seen as the...
Europe’s economy is starting to feel pain from Trump’s Iran war https://t.co/CIvXuCML5t via @jrandow @weberalexander https://t.co/y98tnQWvQJ
94.27 on the USDINR. These are going to be rough times, and it's going to take time for flows to come back in
The United States and Iran remain locked in a war‑plus‑negotiation cycle, with recent military posturing and limited diplomatic overtures. In the past 48 hours Washington dispatched a carrier strike group to the Gulf while Iran launched a salvo of short‑range...
A Picture Worth a Thousand Words: Saudi Crude Exports from Western Ports Continue to Rise https://t.co/fSDuoL9nVW
Reuters: "China is considering easing shareholding restrictions for some major investors, people with knowledge of the matter said, in a move aimed at broadening capital-raising options for commercial banks reeling from an economic slowdown." https://t.co/HCdl6eFRCX
Aw gee Marco. Tariff Europe some more. Maybe that will help. Or better yet side up even more with Putin.
Time is irreversible damage Trump has kicked the can till April 6 11 more days of disruption = 120MM additional barrels shut in ==>cumulative losses ~400MM, notes @ericnuttall That’s how a “temporary” disruption becomes a lasting supply shock. #Oil #Hormuz #SupplyShock #EnergyCrisis #Inventories...
Bab al-Mandeb is now in play Another chokepoint, another layer of disrupt Iran doesn’t need to win militarily. It just needs to expand the number of places it can break the system. https://t.co/k876kDiu36 #Hormuz #BabAlMandeb #Oil #Shipping #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis #RedSea #Suez #Iran #OOTT
The ECB spent two years cutting rates to revive growth. Now energy shocks are forcing them to hike into a slowdown. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/ZKgiJs3tbu
I asked Sec. Rubio planeside if the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened without US boots on the ground. He said it's a Dept. of War question, but "It can be open tomorrow if #Iran stops threatening global shipping, which is...
Today's policy speeches from Jefferson and Barr continue to push the Fedlock hawkishness measure even higher. https://t.co/PYi7b3edxv
