Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
DRC Miners Shift to Copper as Cobalt Prices Crash, Glencore Leads Pivot
Major mining firms in the Democratic Republic of Congo, spearheaded by Glencere, are slashing cobalt output and expanding copper production after cobalt prices fell to a nine‑year low. The shift aligns with soaring copper demand from AI data centers, electrification and electric‑vehicle growth, and comes amid tighter export quotas imposed by the DRC government.
Waller Warns Productivity Surge Could Raise Borrowing Costs
Fed's Waller: starts by trashing Goolsbee's model -- anticipated productivity will be associated with higher borrowing costs if 'everyone' scrambles to invest, acting as a dampener.
Iran Diverts and Seizes a Tanker Linked to Its Own Oil Industry
Iran announced the seizure of the tanker IMO 9255933, currently sailing as the Jin Li, a vessel long linked to Iran’s heavy fuel oil and condensate exports. The ship, part of Iran’s shadow fleet since 2020, was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury...
Goldman Delays Final Fed Cuts to Late 2026, Early 2027
“We are pushing back the final two Fed rate cuts in our forecast by one quarter to December 2026 and March 2027.” - Goldman
Bank of Ghana Reports GH¢15.6bn Loss, Unveils Recapitalisation Roadmap
The Bank of Ghana announced a GH¢15.6bn (about $1.3bn) operating loss for 2025 and a plunge in equity to GH¢93bn negative. The central bank said it remains policy‑solvent but unveiled a multi‑year recapitalisation programme with the finance ministry to rebuild...
Bank Negara Malaysia Holds Rate at 2.75% as Middle East Conflict Threatens Growth
Malaysia’s central bank kept the overnight policy rate at 2.75% for the fifth straight meeting, warning that the protracted Middle East war could feed higher commodity prices and inflation. The decision underscores how emerging‑market policymakers are balancing solid domestic fundamentals...
U.S. Sanctions Hit Cuban Military Giant GAESA, Escalating Havana Tensions
The United States announced fresh sanctions on Thursday, targeting GAESA, the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces' primary business conglomerate, and other military-linked entities. The move follows a series of diplomatic overtures and signals heightened defense pressure on Havana.
Iran War Live: US Expects Tehran’s Reply to Peace Deal; ‘Clashes’ in Hormuz
The United States launched strikes that disabled two Iranian‑flagged oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Tehran to accuse Washington of breaching the cease‑fire and to demand a UN condemnation. Iran’s UN envoy labeled the attacks unlawful and warned...
Tehran Could Withstand Blockade for Four Months, CIA Report Says, as Fighting Flares
A CIA assessment released on May 9 says Tehran could withstand a U.S. naval blockade of its ports for roughly four months, limiting Washington’s economic leverage. The analysis comes as fighting intensifies in the Strait of Hormuz, where U.S. forces have...
How a China-Backed Highway May Turn Landlocked Laos Into a Trade Gateway
China‑backed officials have launched a feasibility study for a 186‑207 km expressway linking Vientiane to the northeastern border with Vietnam, with a longer 440 km corridor to the Chinese border slated for completion by 2030. State‑owned Henan ZhongGong Design and Research Group...
U.S. Strikes on Iranian Tankers Raise More Questions over Negotiations to End War
U.S. fighter jets struck two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, citing violations of the American‑imposed blockade. The attacks came as President Trump warned Iran of a "big glow" if a cease‑fire is not secured, while Iran’s foreign minister...
Trump’s Impatient Tactics Outmatched by Iran’s Strategic Mastery
Trump has been exposed as an impatient amateur in international statecraft Iran has played like a chess grand master Trump's deadlines & threats have lost credibility How does Trump avoid humiliation for what can only be called a disastrous failure? Right now, it is...
Prime‑age Male Labor Participation up, Overall Rate Misleading
Sigh. I fucking hate it when people treat labor force participation rate as an indicator of labor market strength. This is just AGING. The prime-age male labor force participation rate has RISEN. https://t.co/irkibPk59k
Recession Fears Are Back: Here Is Why That Should Not Change Your Strategy
Recession concerns are resurfacing, but the article advises investors to stay the course rather than overhaul portfolios. Short‑term traders may be tempted to time the market, yet history shows that market timing underperforms disciplined, long‑term investing. The S&P 500 has risen...
Fed Briefly Employed Tiered Reserves During 2008 Crisis
🚨 Fed actually used a tiered reserves system temporarily in 2008🚨 — Darrell Duffie @HooverInst monetary policy conference https://t.co/CPW11sBr1e
Fed Flags Overheated Markets as Top Stability Risk
The Federal Reserve’s latest Financial Stability Report warns that market froth remains the top risk to financial stability. Asset valuations, especially equities, stay at the high end of historical ranges while equity volatility has risen since the November report. Treasury...
US Imposes Sanctions on 10 Individuals, Companies for Aiding Iran's Weapons Sector
The U.S. Treasury announced sanctions on ten individuals and companies, including entities in China and Hong Kong, for supporting Iran’s military‑industrial base and the production of Shahed drones. The measures target suppliers of raw materials and financial intermediaries that facilitate illicit...
So What’s the Strategy for China?
The Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center released a new podcast, “So What’s the Strategy?,” featuring former deputy secretary of state Kurt Campbell discussing President Joe Biden’s China strategy, the Trump administration’s approach, and Donald Trump’s upcoming meeting with Xi Jinping. Campbell, known...
Tariffs Harm Economy and Violate Legal Authority
Two things can be true at once: tariffs can be bad economics and bad law. Taxing imports raises costs for Americans; doing it without proper authority also trashes the rules. https://t.co/IIdLA6tjrl
Business Cycle Indicators – Employment and Coincident Index
The latest data show non‑farm payrolls (NFP) increasing, while household‑survey‑based employment measures remain below their January peaks. Civilian employment adjusted for population growth also lags, indicating a divergence between employer‑reported and survey‑based job counts. The coincident index, which aggregates industrial...
Russia's Lavrov Tells UAE Counterpart of Need to Support US-Iran Talks
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov urged his United Arab Emirates counterpart, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, to support ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations. Lavrov emphasized that backing the talks is essential to prevent a resurgence of hostilities in the Middle East....
Russia's Desperation: Seeks Trump to Protect Putin
Russia needs Trump to beg Ukraine not to kill Putin if he appears in public The New Russian Empire is absolutely pathetic
Thanks to Trump, the Gloves Are Off. There May Be No New Global Order
Donald Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy has accelerated the collapse of the post‑World II unipolar system, leaving the global order in flux. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is championing a coalition of middle powers – “midi‑lateralism” – to offer a third path between great‑power...
Trump Punts Thorniest Iran Challenges in Push to Reopen Hormuz
President Donald Trump has shifted U.S. strategy in the Iran conflict to prioritize reopening the Strait of Hormuz, putting nuclear and missile negotiations on the back burner. The administration ordered warships to escort merchant vessels and temporarily halted the “Project...
Mideast Disruption Hits 1 Billion Barrel Milestone
Energy Intelligence estimates that the ongoing war in the Middle East has removed roughly one billion barrels of crude oil, petroleum products and other liquids from global markets, based on shipping data analysis. The disruption reflects a combination of port...
Chaos and Confusion in the Strait of Hormuz Could Drive Apparel Production Costs up 15%
Geopolitical turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz has halted commercial traffic for three consecutive days, prompting Iran to impose new tolls and application requirements for vessels. The disruption has slashed shipping volume by up to 97% and is projected to...
Canadian Unemployment Hits 7-Month High As Workers Outpace Jobs
Canada's unemployment rate climbed to 6.9% in April, marking a seven‑month high. The labour market shed 18,000 jobs overall, with full‑time positions dropping 47,000 while part‑time roles added 29,000. A growing labour force of 33,500 workers outpaced job creation, pushing...
Trump’s Second-Wave Tariffs Were Ruled Unlawful, But Importers Shouldn’t Count on Refunds
The U.S. Court of International Trade declared the Trump administration's Section 122 10 percent tariffs unlawful, but the ruling applies only to the plaintiffs, not to all importers. The Department of Justice has already filed an appeal, signaling a protracted legal battle...
Powell’s Capitol Hill Testimony Exhausts Congressional Audiences
Fed Chair Powell really did “wear out the carpets” on Capitol Hill. (A slide from @td_econ’s presentations at @HooverInst monetary policy conference.) https://t.co/QZA1xbFmKC
Weak Dollar Boosts Bitcoin and Risk‑On Assets
Dollar Breakdown Keeps Fueling Bitcoin and Risk-On Equity Rotation Short USD. Short Treasuries. Long the Quad Shift. ⚡💵 While Tourists panic around every $SPY tick, the real Macro move remains the same: ⬇️ Dollar ⬇️ Bonds ⬆️ Bitcoin ⬆️ Risk Assets https://t.co/94qOuTSIrQ
EU Authorizes Use of US Jet Fuel to Mitigate Supply Chain Disruptions
The European Commission has issued guidance allowing U.S.-produced Jet A aviation fuel to be used in Europe as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, tightening global energy supplies. The move, cleared by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA),...
US Revises UN Resolution on Iran but China, Russia Still Expected to Veto
Washington revised its U.N. Security Council draft on Iran, stripping the Chapter VII clause that could have authorized collective force but keeping tough language condemning attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. The updated text still calls for future sanctions if Tehran...
Markets Creep Forward Despite Latest Failed Iran Ceasefire
U.S. equities posted modest gains this week despite the collapse of a fragile cease‑fire between the United States and Iran. The Dow Jones rose 108 points, the Nasdaq added 1,133 points and the S&P 500 climbed 168 points to close...
Jobs: Soft, Stable, or Something Else
In this Inside Economics episode, Mark Zandi, Chris Derides, Mercedina Talley, and guest Dr. Dante D'Antonio dissect the April jobs report. Payroll data showed a surprisingly strong gain of 115,000 jobs, driven mainly by healthcare, transportation & warehousing, and retail,...
InvestingLive Americas Market News Wrap: US Jobs Growth Surprises to the Upside
U.S. non‑farm payrolls jumped by 115,000 in April, far exceeding the 62,000 forecast, underscoring a resilient labor market. The strong jobs data bolstered equity optimism, with the Nasdaq climbing another 5% this week and up 30% over the past six...
Congressional Push‑And‑Pull Over USMCA Threatens Trade Flows Ahead of July Deadline
U.S. lawmakers and Canadian officials are locked in a heated debate over the renewal of the US‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement, with a July 1 deadline to decide the pact’s fate. Critics warn that a breakdown could raise tariffs on autos, oil and gas,...
Ship Traffic Around Southern Africa Resurges
Tanker traffic around the Cape of Good Hope has surged to its highest level since early 2025 as Middle‑East hostilities disrupt the Red Sea and Suez Canal corridor. After a period of uneven flows throughout 2025 and early 2026, traffic...
U.S. Sanctions Cuba's Moa Nickel Venture, Threatening China‑Linked Battery Supply
The United States, via Secretary of State Marco Rubio, sanctioned Moa Nickel SA—a joint venture between Canada’s Sherritt International and Cuba’s General Nickel Company—prompting Sherritt to halt operations and see three directors resign. The move targets a key source of...
Trump’s Latest Tariff Setback Looms Over China Talks
President Trump’s 10% across‑the‑board tariff was declared illegal by the Court of International Trade, marking a fresh legal defeat for his trade agenda. The ruling comes as the administration prepares for high‑stakes negotiations with China next week, where tariffs were...
Munis Steady, USTs Largely Ignore Jobs Report
Municipal bond yields held steady across maturities on Friday despite a stronger‑than‑expected 115,000 nonfarm payroll increase in April. Treasury yields edged lower, falling up to three basis points, as investors remained more focused on geopolitical developments in the Middle East...
Southeast Asian Leaders Tackle Iran War Vulnerabilities
ASEAN leaders convened a stripped‑down summit to address the economic fallout from the Iran‑Israel war, agreeing to fast‑track a dormant 2009 emergency fuel‑sharing pact and launch a regional power‑grid and fuel‑stockpile initiative. The bloc also pledged to diversify crude supplies,...
Federal Court Strikes Down Trump’s 10% Global Tariff — What It Means for Brokers
A three‑judge panel of the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled 2‑1 that the Trump administration's 10% global tariff is illegal, overturning the president’s broad trade measure. The decision follows lawsuits by small businesses and is expected to be appealed...
Norway’s Central Bank Raises Rate to 4.25%, Triggering Euro‑Stock Volatility
Norges Bank unexpectedly lifted Norway’s benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% on Thursday, citing inflation pressure from the Middle‑East conflict. The surprise move sent Norwegian bond yields higher and nudged equity valuations lower across the Nordics, with...
Zimbabwe’s Gold‑Backed ZiG Currency Stumbles as Merchants Favor US Dollars
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe’s gold‑backed ZiG legal tender is hitting roadblocks as retailers and online merchants default to US dollars, despite a recent policy lift that raised transaction limits to ZiG 13,000 (≈$9.30). Consumers face higher prices, settlement delays and...
Dollar Hits Two‑Week High as Middle East Tensions Boost Safe‑Haven Demand, Treasury Yields Rise
The U.S. dollar rose to its highest level in two weeks on Thursday, while benchmark Treasury yields climbed amid heightened Middle East risk. Investors are seeking safety as the United States and Iran edge toward a limited cease‑fire, but lingering...
Markets Mask Deep Disruptions with False Confidence
We're seeing major disruptions, yet prices and trading patterns reflect high confidence that everything is fine. That's far from the truth... #finance #globalmarkets #geopolitics https://t.co/JwZT4baTcm
China Accelerates Wind Power Build‑Out with Massive Desert Turbines and Deep‑Water Offshore Project
China has surged ahead in wind energy, installing three times the global increase in capacity last year and completing its deepest offshore wind farm 45 miles off Yantai. The push, driven by strategic security concerns and a robust grid, underscores...
India's 10‑Year Bond Slides 0.9% in Worst Monthly Drop Amid Auction Rout and War Jitters
India's benchmark 10‑year government bond posted its biggest monthly loss this year, slipping 0.92% as a tepid auction and escalating US‑Iran conflict rattled investors. The government raised 340 billion rupees ($3.6 billion) in the new issue, but yields jumped to 6.98%, underscoring...
Fertilizer Prices Surge as Hormuz Crisis Triggers EU Subsidy Plan
Global fertilizer prices have jumped after the near‑closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted ammonia, urea, sulfur and phosphate flows. The European Commission responded with emergency aid covering up to 70% of extra fuel and fertilizer costs, allowing farmers to...
Morningstar DBRS Confirms Republic of Poland at "A", Negative Trend
Morningstar DBRS confirmed Poland’s long‑term sovereign rating at A with a Negative outlook, while short‑term ratings remain R‑1 (low) and stable. The agency highlighted a widening fiscal deficit of about 6.7% of GDP and a public‑debt trajectory that could climb...