Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑cheap yen fuels $435 billion carry‑trade, warns of tightening risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose policy has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a $435 billion carry‑trade between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could force borrowers to unwind yen‑denominated debt.
Iranian steelmakers Khouzestan Steel and Mobarakeh Steel were hit by air strikes attributed to the US and Israel, damaging storage silos, a substation, an alloy‑steel line and power infrastructure. The attacks are expected to reduce billet and slab production and delay semi‑finished steel exports. No casualties were reported, and blast furnaces were offline at the time of the strikes. The incidents follow a recent strike on Foolad Atieh that caused fatalities.
My take on the Chinese five year plan and the rise of "high quality" as approximating a "Xi Doctrine" on the economy - for @CarnegieEndow Emissary @CarnegieChina The TL:DR version: - For Xi, innovation-driven economy > consumption driven economy. -...
g7 foreign ministers meeting in france today. on the agenda: stop the war, end iran's nuclear program, reopen the strait of hormuz. also on the agenda, implicitly: explain to allies why the us launched this war without telling them and ask...
Brazil’s foreign‑trade chamber approved definitive antidumping duties on polyethylene imports from the United States and Canada, fixing rates at $199.04 per metric tonne for U.S. resin and $238.49 for Canadian resin for the next five years. The decision caps the...
Moody’s Analytics now sees recession odds edging past 50%, while Goldman Sachs estimates a 30% chance of a downturn in the next year as higher oil prices and a cooling labor market converge. Small businesses, lacking the cash buffers of...
No better timing than to have @LukeGromen as my guest tonight on The Danny Moses Show @scrippsnews at 7PM ET. We discuss the impact that the war in Iran is having on global markets & what we should be watching....
At the Future Investment Initiative in Miami, WTTC Chairman Manfredi Lefebvre warned that Latin America’s trillion‑dollar growth prospects depend on fixing chronic infrastructure gaps. The council estimates the region must invest about $150 billion each year—roughly 2.4 % of GDP—to close shortfalls...
Fitch reaffirmed Israel’s sovereign credit rating at A with a negative outlook on March 27, 2026, citing escalating war costs and fiscal strain. The agency highlighted that the ongoing Operation Lion’s Roar and northern front clashes forced Israel to exceed its budget...
U.S. consumers will be among the hardest hit by Trump’s tariff policies & the Iran war. The OECD raised its U.S. inflation estimation for this year to 4.2% — an increase of 1.2 percentage points, the 4th largest uptick among all...
US Consumer Sentiment just fell in March to 53.3, one of the lowest readings of all time. The only lower readings? Nov/Dec 2025 after longest gov't shutdown April/May 2025 after 'Liberation Day' tariffs June/July 2022 during inflation spike Americans are struggling to navigate all...
Tata Motors, BMW, Audi and other automakers will raise vehicle prices in India next month as material and logistics costs surge amid Middle‑East tensions and a weakening rupee. Tata plans up to a 1.5% hike for commercial vehicles and a...
The consensus in early March was the war is a fade because geopolitics is always a fade. I wrote a piece titled: "am/FX: Too Many Faders" on March 2 outlining why it was way too early to fade an escalating...
Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini warned that President Donald Trump is likely to intensify the war with Iran, despite a recently extended pause on energy‑facility attacks. Roubini argues that escalation could trigger oil shocks and a return to 1970s‑style stagflation if...
Prometeia’s latest outlook warns that the Iran‑Hormuz conflict and resulting energy shock are eroding global growth in 2026. Euro‑area GDP is trimmed to 0.8%, a 0.4‑point downgrade, as gas reserves dwindle and inflation‑driven recovery stalls. The United States is projected...
As the United States pulls back its media assistance in the Indo‑Pacific, China is expanding its state‑linked broadcasting, putting Australia’s soft‑power role under pressure. The Pacific Security and Engagement Initiatives (PSEI) – AU$32 million (≈$21 M USD) over four years – is...
The European Union and the 12‑nation CPTPP bloc issued a joint statement at the WTO ministerial in Yaoundé, calling the organization’s future a "critical juncture" that demands urgent, deep, and inclusive reform. Both groups highlighted concerns over market‑distorting practices, oversupply,...
"Let's just say on Friday we sign a cease fire and all hostilities cease. We are not going back to 60 bucks (per barrel). There's going to be a geopolitical risk premium built into the price of oil... You will...
The global investment community has been discussing the substantial impact of the war in Iran on the markets. Yet, the indices I follow, through Vanguard Group UK funds, show a decline of less than 10%. So far, most of the impact...
President Trump threatened to bomb Iran's civilian power grid, sending Brent crude above $112 a barrel and spiking U.S. stock futures before abruptly reversing the order and postponing the strike. The sudden policy flip caused the S&P 500 to jump...
The ongoing Middle East conflict has wiped about $53 bn off the market value of the world’s 20 largest airlines in just three weeks, while jet fuel prices have jumped from $87 to $150‑$200 per barrel, doubling one of the sector’s...
The Trump administration’s IEEPA tariffs surged to an 80‑year high in 2025, generating $264 billion in revenue—more than triple the previous year. Despite average rates climbing from 2.4 % to 9.6 %, the overall impact on U.S. GDP was muted, estimated at only...
U.S. consumer confidence slipped sharply in March as the Michigan sentiment index was revised down to 53.3, a six‑percent decline from February and the lowest reading recorded in 2026. The drop reflects heightened anxiety over the war‑induced surge in gasoline...
"The biggest supply disruption in history." The war in Iran has closed the straight of Hormuz, damaged energy infrastructure across the region, and sent shockwaves across the global oil & gas industry. It's so big, it's hard to get your...
The Trump administration granted a 60‑day waiver of the Jones Act to ease oil market disruptions amid rising crude prices and supply‑chain strains from the Iran conflict. The Jones Act, a 1920 cabotage law requiring U.S.-flagged, U.S.-built vessels for domestic...
NEW w/ @bencasselman: Throughout a series of economic shocks that pushed up consumer prices in the past five years, Americans maintained faith that the Fed would eventually get inflation under control. The war with Iran presents another shock that is...
Very important client post. The Bullwhip Economy 💫Not Stagflation. Hyperinflation. 💫Gold Hedges Stagflation - Not A Bullwhip Economy 💫Some Key Topping Charts https://t.co/Jqx8pnT5Ti
Tariffs are eroding grocery margins, with 76% of retailers passing at least part of the added cost onto shoppers. While 69% of respondents say tariffs slightly affected profitability, 17% report a significant hit, prompting supply‑chain tweaks and supplier diversification. Retailer...
This is important especially since US and China are the only countries able to ‘police’ the strait of Hormuz
US DEBT HAS HIT $39T AND IS CLIMBING. As I wrote in Fortune with Dave Walker, former US Comptroller General, US Treasury data show, black on white, that Uncle Sam is INSOLVENT. https://t.co/qKKcJtEuEk
In this episode, the host analyzes the immediate oil market impact of a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which transports about 20 million barrels per day—roughly one‑fifth of global supply. He explains that this volume creates a market "hole"...
FWIW - With or without further increases in oil prices, should consumer confidence around the globe continue to fall, and "Me Here Now" thinking really set in, it is hard not imagine local policymakers being pressured by voters to dump...
genuinely think the BoJ needs to emergency hike. don’t toy with the idea of shorting oil futures (you don’t have the juice for that). Ueda—the JGB steepening can end if you have the courage to do what’s right. https://t.co/cHO1FRRfAf
Chevron stock leapt sharply after crude oil climbed toward $90 per barrel and the energy giant signaled a more generous dividend. The rally helped lift the Dow Jones and underscored a broader rebound in energy equities amid easing Middle‑East tensions.
Not often you see STIRs trying to price hikes and cuts at the same time, but that is the current level of uncertainty. What will dominate in the next few months, inflation or a growth slowdown? Get...
UMich biggest sour swing since April 2025.. 1yr inflation expectations surge to 3.8%... but the long-term inflation outlook was down a tick https://t.co/jKnBGuulSH
The article warns that the global economy’s drive for efficiency has created fragile single points of failure, exemplified by Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly one‑fifth of world oil and a quarter of fertilizer. This...
The OECD warns that US inflation will surge to 4.2% this year. As I predicted, the inflation genie will not be put back in the bottle and will remain one of Trump’s Achilles’ heels.
For the first time in history, the UK could become a net importer of salt. https://t.co/LebKeoPpE6 https://t.co/SJkfWqLqVr
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warned that the ongoing Middle East war could trigger systemic stress across financial markets, jeopardising investor sentiment in Europe. He cautioned that while spillovers to the euro‑area have so far been contained, the conflict...
My view in the @EpochTimes on the US reducing reliance on Middle Eastern oil: “There is a strategic shift toward a more resilient Western Hemisphere energy bloc... through tighter integration of supply chains ... with Venezuela." https://t.co/DLlkE38yYS
China Hits Back at U.S. With New Trade Probes Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit Beijing responds to investigations by the U.S. that could raise tariffs @pstAsiatech: yes, Beijing will respond to every measure coming from within Beltway, every one.. https://t.co/XZraiO7f8W
The Indian rupee breached 94.70 per U.S. dollar on Friday, its weakest level ever, as Brent crude surged above $107 a barrel and geopolitical risk in West Asia intensified. Foreign portfolio investors dumped roughly $9.5‑$10 bn of Indian equities, while the...
How China Is Playing the Long Game With Trump China is always playing the long game... https://t.co/ca5y4Jpyct
We are going to print so much money it’s disgusting. Buying BTC, ZEC, and SPY puts.
The European Union and Australia have signed a comprehensive free‑trade agreement after eight years of talks, eliminating most tariffs on goods and creating a dedicated pathway for critical minerals. The pact is expected to boost Australian exports, tighten supply chains...
THE WEEKEND IS COMING. MARKETS ARE NERVOUS. HERE'S WHY Markets are cracking 📉 Gold up. Oil up. Stocks down. Traders are dumping before the weekend😬 Iran. Trade. Inflation The risk isn't going away it's building Here's what you need to know👇 https://t.co/7vLLHhW9RC
EU sees risk of stagflation shock for Europe from Iran war https://t.co/bWePAfEpHo via @europressos https://t.co/GG5mzV8kVC
Iran announced a new toll of up to $2 million for commercial ships passing the Strait of Hormuz, a move that threatens to raise shipping costs and tighten global oil supplies. The fee comes amid heightened missile attacks, diplomatic deadlock and...
What matters in the short run: -Wars -Oil prices -Tariffs -Interest rates -Sentiment -A million other things What matters in the long run: -Earnings Speculators focus on the short run. Investors play the long game. https://t.co/u1oZkcMGCY
UK average petrol price reached 150.11 pence per litre (≈£1.50/$1.88), with diesel at 177.68 pence (≈£1.78/$2.22), the highest levels since May 2024. The surge, tied to the Iran‑Israel conflict and rising crude, is inflating motorists’ travel costs and feeding broader inflation worries. At...
