Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑cheap yen fuels $435 billion carry‑trade, warns of tightening risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose policy has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a $435 billion carry‑trade between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could force borrowers to unwind yen‑denominated debt.
The Yemen‑based Houthis warned they will join Iran against any coalition that aligns the United States and Israel, threatening to block the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait. Saudi Arabia has hinted it may intervene, raising the prospect of a direct Houthi‑Saudi confrontation. A blockade would force oil tankers to detour through the Suez Canal, lengthening voyages and tightening global supplies. Consequently, WTI crude futures have surged past $100 a barrel as markets price in heightened geopolitical risk.
McKinsey identifies nine "omniscalers"—Alibaba, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Huawei, Meta, Microsoft, Samsung, and Tesla—that rank among the world’s top 30 spenders on R&D and capital expenditures and generate revenue in at least three high‑growth arenas. By 2025 these firms are active...
India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met on the sidelines of the WTO’s 14th ministerial in Yaounde to review progress on a bilateral trade agreement announced in February. The parties reaffirmed a March signing target...
The 10‑Year Treasury yield, which peaked above 5% in late 2023, has rebounded to roughly 4.4% after a dip to 3.8% in August 2024, reflecting lingering inflation and geopolitical risks. The Federal Reserve has held rates steady this year, but...
France will spend €70 million (about $76 million) on fuel subsidies for farmers, small logistics firms and fishermen throughout April. The plan suspends non‑road diesel excise taxes for farmers, costing roughly €14 million, and provides a €0.20‑per‑liter rebate for trucks and fishing vessels,...
WTI crude settled at $99.64, briefly topping $100 per barrel for the first time since early May, as traders price a longer‑term Middle East conflict into oil markets. The rally follows a U.S.–Israeli strike on an Iranian steel facility, prompting...
Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor backed by President Trump, is poised for a contentious nomination as Federal Reserve chair. He advocates rapid rate cuts despite $100‑a‑barrel oil prices and rising inflation forecasts, while also promising to slash the Fed’s...
Operation Epic Fury, the US‑Israeli offensive against Iran, has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, choking roughly 20% of global crude oil flow and a host of other critical commodities. The closure also traps 22% of urea and ammonia, 24%...
When the S&P 500 falls ~31% on average, Gold has historically gained +6.5%. And right now? • S&P 500 is down ~5–6% in recent weeks • Nasdaq in correction territory • Oil > $100 and geopolitical risk rising This is exactly the type of...
Factful Friday is up! After a book-writing hiatus, it's back (and based on snippets from my forthcoming eBook, World War Trade). 👉Why didn’t Donald Trump’s tariffs melt down the world trade system? This Factful Friday, based on snippets from my...
Jeremy Siegel, emeritus professor at Wharton and senior economist at WisdomTree, says the ongoing Iran conflict, Federal Reserve policy, and rapid AI adoption are reshaping market dynamics. He warns that heightened geopolitical risk is pressuring equity valuations while the Fed’s...
Carnival Corp lowered its full‑year adjusted earnings per share outlook to $2.21, down from a prior range up to $2.48, as surging fuel costs strain margins. The increase in fuel expenses, driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions and a lack...
U.S. stocks slipped further on Friday after President Donald Trump announced a pause to the planned attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure, pushing the S&P 500 down 5.4% year‑to‑date. Analysts warn the conflict could linger, creating recurring market volatility through the midterm...
If CPI were to trend up to 5% over the next year in the unlikely event that rbob futures kept rolling up to the current spot price...what is the 10 year yield and what has to happen to SPX earnings...
Thoughts? We discuss the emerging global energy crisis and fuel rationing measures being implemented worldwide. Countries like Slovenia and South Korea are implementing fuel rationing systems, while others are grounding flights and pushing work-from-home mandates to conserve energy. We explore...
The Japan‑South Korea‑US trilateral is reshaping from a broad security pact into a pragmatic techno‑alliance focused on AI, quantum computing, critical minerals and next‑generation nuclear energy. At the recent Trans‑Pacific Dialogue, leaders highlighted coordinated supply‑chain initiatives and pledged massive U.S....
U.S. truck‑components maker TCCI is navigating a fragmented tariff regime after the Supreme Court struck down some Trump‑era duties, but Section 232 tariffs on heavy‑duty parts remain. The company invested $45 million in a Clean Energy Innovation Hub to produce electric compressors...
India, the world’s second‑largest LPG importer, boosted domestic LPG production amid the West Asia conflict that disrupted supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Refinery output was increased by 40% to a record 50,000 tonnes per day, cutting daily import...
The University of Michigan’s final March consumer sentiment index slipped to 53.3, down from the preliminary 55.5 reading. Expectations fell 4.9 points from February, outpacing the 2‑point dip in current conditions caused by higher gasoline prices. Analysts attribute the broader...
The United States must reshape its nuclear strategy as China accelerates toward a 1,000‑warhead force by 2030 and Russia continues modernizing its arsenal, while the New START treaty has lapsed. Washington’s current deployment of 1,550 warheads and 700 delivery systems...
QatarEnergy announced that an Iranian attack on its Ras Laffan facility has knocked out roughly 17% of the country’s LNG export capacity, with repairs expected to take three to five years. The outage translates to about $20 billion in lost annual...
With the New START treaty now expired, U.S. defense planners argue the strategic nuclear force must grow to roughly 2,400 operationally deployed warheads and become more flexible to influence adversary decision‑making at every crisis stage. The brief cites Russia’s heightened...
Since the West Asia conflict began, Brent crude has surged from roughly $73 to $109 per barrel, a 49% increase. In response, India’s Centre trimmed the special additional excise duty on petrol and diesel by ₹10 per litre (about $0.12),...
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains virtually halted four weeks into the Iran‑Israel conflict, with only six vessels recorded on March 26 versus the pre‑war average of nearly 60 daily transits in 2025. Iran announced a toll system demanding...
Europe has cut Russian gas imports by 90% since 2021 and aims to end them by November 2027. To replace the lost volume, the continent now relies on LNG, exposing it to global shipping chokepoints. The Eastern Mediterranean basin, with...
Oil & Interest rates, collectively, are single-handedly driving the equity market. The longer prices remain high, the flatter the slope will be WRT stocks. That means, smaller changes in oil/rates will have larger impacts on stocks. One reason this is...
Biggest euro-zone price jump since 2022 seen in first G-20 data https://t.co/kl1LZfnzhJ via @CraigStirling https://t.co/UT73y7yUEV
European Central Bank Vice President Isabel Schnabel warned that Europe is confronting a massive energy price shock but cautioned against hasty policy moves. She emphasized that the ECB has sufficient time to assess incoming data before deciding on any rate...
Hot take: the next drawdown won’t be “a recession.” It’ll be a liquidity accident. Dollar firm. FX carry crowded. Credit tightens quietly. Then everyone acts shocked. Markets don’t blow up from headlines. They blow up from plumbing. https://t.co/oS1ebUhkzJ
France unveils limited aid to offset Iran war impact on the economy https://t.co/CZX6WnRGfE via @WHorobin https://t.co/RaHs19PKsN
This chart is going to look at lot different a month from now. Global Inflation Rates... https://t.co/RrBw1EeUo3
In my view, markets are underestimating systemic risks of Middle East War and overestimating systemics risks of private credit
🇺🇸🇨🇳At the White House on Friday, Trump said: “American soybeans are now being shipped to China in record amounts.” Unless something unexpectedly changes, 2025/26 U.S. soybean exports to China are on track to be: ▪️a 19-year low ▪️down 58% from the five-year average...
"but the catastrophic consequences of the Strait remaining closed won't happen if the Strait reopens" https://t.co/iULTzt6N2d
Decent odds we see some export bans for key commodities where India can move global prices (eg rice, sugar)
Mortgage interest rates are hitting 7 percent and sellers are locked into COVID era mortgages that are in negative real interest rate territory. More charts and graphs featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/jUHCvyVvDx
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdoğan fingered Netanyahu's gov't and Israel for “not only targeting Iran”, but also its “step by step implementation of plans to occupy Lebanon”, and its continuing “aggressive violations” of Syria’s sovereignty. https://t.co/M9KIHTZopA
OUT NOW - Former PIMCO Sovereign Credit Head on Iran War's global stagflation shock & risks for sovereign bonds. EM central banks don't have luxury of "seeing through" $100 oil - many will feel pressure to hike Apple 🔊https://t.co/FbjlbTwSHF Spotify📽️https://t.co/BWmky8uYIF https://t.co/eMPzAa5H18
Grab you lunch pails and get your hard hats on.... Global Macro gettin DICEY @fejau_inc @qthomp https://t.co/c1n3INbRN3
Quite a week to be @CERAWeek with Iran war and escalating energy crisis. And no one better to debrief with than the incomparable @JavierBlas. Check out my podcast with him recapping #CERAWeek and latest on Iran. https://t.co/OsJts3VLUQ
The EU should sever the link between gas and electricity costs to limit the fallout from the Iran war, the IEA has suggested 🇪🇺⚠️ In the European marginal pricing system, gas is the fuel that effectively sets the power price https://t.co/rvKWzsWwey
Remember this? After Kuwait's liberation, Iraq's oil revenues were placed in a UN escrow account, with the UN managing sales and purchases. Iraq paid about 30%—later reduced to 25% after 2000—for war reparations, while the UN kept 3% for administration...
Ferguson’s Law, proposed by Sir Niall Ferguson: when a great power spends more on debt service than on defense, it risks losing its status as a great power. The U.S. crossed that line. Net interest at ~3.1% of GDP exceeds defense at ~3.0%. DEBT...
Not even a slight bounce on this headline. *US SIGNALS TO ALLIES NO IMMEDIATE PLANS FOR IRAN INVASION
Pleased to meet with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva (@KGeorgieva) to discuss the implications of the Middle East conflict for energy markets & economies around the world We agreed to continue to keep in close contact as we support governments in...
30 year base in the Yen and it's about to breakout higher...US Dollar wrecking ball locked & loaded at the same time the geopolitics won't allow for a release of global dollar liquidity. @crossbordercap What say you?! @SantiagoAuFund What're you seeing? https://t.co/pGBvvssGL6
Oil may spike in 2026—but that’s not a new bull market. In a debt-heavy, fragile system, high prices don’t fuel growth—they crush it. This looks more like a spike that kills demand than a cycle that sustains it. LINK👇 https://t.co/kmq5wrQnHw #Oil #EnergyCrisis #Macro #Geopolitics #OilMarkets
For the first time since July 2024, $USD has pushed above JPY160. It almost reached JPY160.40, which we suggested was needed to confirm a breakout. The BOJ & MOF officials I have spoken with seem more sophisticated that draw an...
I'm going to start doing a weekly livestream on Saturday mornings at 9 am (ET). Tomorrow will kick things off with a discussion of: (i) impact of an Iran embargo on oil prices; (ii) what's going on with gold and...
This is important 👇 1. USA is in Cold War with China 2. Europe is economically dependent on China. Something has to change because 1+2 is incompatible with a partnership, which is why the partnership is deteriorating
