Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
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POLAR POLITICS: Iran War Fuel Chaos Hits Sub-Antarctic as Remote Marion Relief Voyage Severely Delayed
South Africa’s annual relief mission to Marion Island has been postponed until mid‑May after a specialised polar diesel shipment, delayed by the US‑Israel war with Iran, finally arrived at a Cape Town refinery on May 1. The DFFE explained that global fuel scarcity forced a month‑long wait for the blended diesel required for extreme cold conditions. Existing fuel reserves on the island will last only until about 20 May 2026, and food supplies are projected to hold for another two months. The SA Agulhas II, Africa’s sole national polar research vessel, is now racing to depart before the narrow Southern Ocean weather window closes.
Oil Inventories Plummet, Raising Spike and Shortage Risks
Bloomberg: “The world has burned through oilinventories at a record speed as the Iran war throttles flows from the Persian Gulf… The rapidly shrinking stockpiles mean that the risk of even more extreme price spikes and shortages is getting ever-closer, leaving governments...
A History of OPEC: Why Its Crisis Is Bad News
The United Arab Emirates announced it will leave OPEC on May 1, arguing that the cartel’s production quotas limit its roughly 5 million barrels‑per‑day capacity. The move marks the first exit of a major producer since OPEC’s founding and underscores a shift...
China’s Exports Surge 14% as Iran‑War Shipping Disruptions Ease
China’s export volume surged 14.1% in April, far outpacing forecasts, as maritime bottlenecks linked to the Iran‑War in the Strait of Hormuz eased. The rebound lifted the country’s trade surplus to $84.82 billion, underscoring the resilience of global supply chains.
Trump Must Renounce Taiwan Support to Pressure Iran
My good friend Chris Wood on Trump’s planned visit to China on May 14: "If Donald Trump wants Beijing to put real pressure on Iran, he may need to agree to make a statement on Taiwan that China has long sought....
Canadian Dollar Falls 0.2% as Weak Jobs Data Cuts BoC Rate‑Hike Odds
The loonie weakened to 1.3690 per U.S. dollar, the sole G10 currency to lose ground, after Canada reported a surprise loss of 17,700 jobs in April and a rise in unemployment to 6.9%. The data trimmed market expectations for Bank...
Ghana Climbs to Africa’s 8th‑Largest Economy as GDP Hits $118 Bn, Mining and ICT Lead
Ghana’s nominal GDP rose to $118.29 bn in 2026, lifting the country to Africa’s eighth‑largest economy. The surge is powered by gold mining, a booming ICT sector and expanding financial services, even as the EU warns that a widening trade deficit...
Ethiopia Leads Africa’s EV Boom as Fuel Prices Spike, $200M+ in Chinese Imports Arrive
Soaring gasoline prices have spurred a rapid rise in electric‑vehicle uptake across Africa, led by Ethiopia, which now has over 115,000 EVs and imported $200 million worth of Chinese models in 2025. The shift is reshaping demand, cutting fuel‑import bills and...
US Treasury Yields Rise Ahead of Strong Payrolls, Reinforcing Steady Fed Outlook
U.S. Treasury yields edged higher ahead of the April jobs report, with the 10‑year benchmark reaching 4.36%. The robust payroll numbers and steady unemployment rate have sharpened market consensus that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady, keeping inflation the...
China's Shanghai and Shenzhen Indices Log Fifth Weekly Gain, Reach Two‑Month Highs
The Shanghai Composite finished flat at 4,180, its highest level in two months, while the Shenzhen Component slipped 0.5% to 15,564. Both benchmarks logged a fifth consecutive week of gains, with Shanghai up 1.65% and Shenzhen up 3.02% on a...
Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights (and Week in Review) 11-15th May 2026:
The week ahead features a suite of pivotal macro releases, starting with China’s April trade data that is expected to show a $82.4 bn surplus, far above the prior $51.1 bn. Inflation readings are in focus as China’s CPI is projected at...
East Africa Capital Markets Dodge Bullet From Gulf War
East Africa’s capital markets have largely avoided the capital‑flight shock from the Gulf war, with foreign investor participation on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) slipping only modestly. In Q1 2024, foreign holdings fell 4.73 percentage points to 32.27%, and investors...
When Money Is a Fiction
In this episode of the Timeless Investor Show, Ari van Gemmeren examines Turkey’s ongoing currency collapse, using the price jump of a simple street bread (simmet) to illustrate how the Turkish lira has lost about 92% of its value against...
Traders Go for Burundi and Rwanda Tea over Kenyan Levy
Kenya introduced a 0.8% export levy on home‑grown tea on May 1, 2026, raising the cost of Kenyan tea at the Mombasa auction. The levy, collected upfront by the Kenya Revenue Authority, has prompted traders to favor Rwandan and Burundian teas,...
Trump Cuts Tariffs on Kentucky Bourbon Barrels Bound for Scotland
President Donald Trump announced the removal of tariffs and restrictions on Kentucky‑origin bourbon barrels destined for Scotland, effectively restoring duty‑free status for the wood‑product pipeline that underpins Scotch whisky aging. The policy shift follows King Charles III and Queen Camilla’s...
Enlarging China's Malacca Dilemma
China's "Malacca Dilemma," the vulnerability of its oil imports to a closure of the Strait of Malacca, has broadened into a "Hormuz Dilemma" as the U.S. blockade of the Persian Gulf threatens half of its oil and a third of...
Trump Heads to China Weakened as Xi Gains Leverage Ahead of Summit
President Donald Trump arrives in China for a landmark summit while his diplomatic leverage is eroding. Ongoing war in Iran has rattled global energy supplies, and recent legal defeats on U.S. tariffs against Chinese imports have strained trade negotiations. Domestic...
Shipping Firms Warn of Heightened Risks as Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed
Global shippers say the prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz is driving soaring insurance costs, weekly losses of $60 million for carriers like Hapag‑Lloyd and a backlog of more than 1,500 vessels, while diplomatic talks stall.
India’s Exports Reach $863 Billion, Fuel Prices Loom as Growth Test
India posted a record $863 billion in total exports for FY 2025‑26, up 4.59% year‑on‑year. The surge is powered by a booming services sector and a 40% jump in electronics, but rising global oil prices threaten to erode consumer spending as petrol...
Japan Deploys $35 Billion to Defend Yen During Golden Week, Holds Back After Holiday
Japan’s Ministry of Finance intervened on April 30, spending about 5.48 trillion yen ($35 bn) to push the yen up 2% during the Golden Week holiday. Analysts say authorities refrained from further action on the first business day after the break, leaving markets...
India's Goldilocks Growth Model Tested by Oil Shock and Rising Inflation
India’s “Goldilocks” growth scenario—strong GDP, moderate inflation and stable finances—is under pressure as crude oil prices have surged about 40% and inflation expectations have been lifted to 5.1%. Analysts say markets have already priced the shock, but the outcome will...
30-Year US Treasury Yield Breaks 5% as Inflation Fears Surge
The yield on the benchmark 30‑year US Treasury bond briefly rose above 5% on Thursday, reviving concerns about persistent inflation and higher borrowing costs. Traders are divided between those who see the level as a buying opportunity and those who...
China's Trade Grows 14% YoY, Boosting Global Commodity Demand
China's foreign trade expanded 14.2% year‑on‑year in April, reaching 4.38 trillion yuan ($639 bn). Exports jumped 9.8% while imports surged 20.6%, driven by higher purchases of crude oil, iron ore and soybeans, underscoring robust commodity demand.
Asian Stocks Jump 5.6% Weekly as US‑Iran Tensions Ease
Investors lifted MSCI's Asian stock index 5.6% this week, the second‑biggest rise since September 2024, after easing concerns over US‑Iran tensions. The rally was led by South Korea’s Kospi (+14%), Taiwan (+7%) and Japan’s Nikkei (+5.8%), while AI chip makers...
Kenya Plans Taxes on Phones, Banking Fees to Raise $1 Billion
Kenya announced plans to levy a 25% excise duty on imported mobile phones and impose a new levy on banking and transaction service fees. The measures aim to raise nearly $1 billion in additional revenue, helping to shrink the fiscal deficit...
Beijing Urges France to Respect One-China Principle During High-Level Talks
China’s top diplomat Wang Yi met with French presidential adviser Emmanuel Bonne in Beijing, urging France to respect the one‑China principle and keep the bilateral partnership free from external interference. Wang stressed that honoring each other’s core interests is essential...
Introducing the ‘NACHO’ Trade: How Wall Street Is Betting on Higher Oil Prices and Persistent Inflation
Wall Street has coined “NACHO” (Not a Chance Hormuz Opens) to describe a trade that profits from higher oil prices and lingering inflation. The strategy pairs long exposure to oil‑linked assets with short positions in short‑term Treasuries, betting that the...
George Answers Your Questions: The Significance of the Trump-Putin Talks
Former President Donald Trump’s recent outreach to Russian President Vladimir Putin has sparked intense debate in Washington. Putin has signaled willingness to allow a one‑day cease‑fire on May 9, Russia’s Victory Day, but offers no broader pathway to end the Ukraine...
Resilience and Divergence in the Face of the Latest Oil Shock
The Iran‑Middle East conflict that erupted in February 2026 triggered a sharp oil price surge, creating a combined price‑and‑supply shock. Emerging‑market (EM) economies are being evaluated for resilience, with exporters poised to benefit while import‑dependent nations face heightened cost pressures....
G10 Long-Term Yields Hit Record Highs Amid Debt Surge
In the UK, long-end yields are at all-time highs, but - if you look across the G10 - that's true for many other countries as well. The US, Japan, France and Australia all have the highest yields in a very...
Markets Have Already 'Factored In' Lower GDP Growth, Higher Inflation Projections Amid Oil Shock: Analyst
Indian markets have already priced in the twin pressures of a slower GDP growth forecast—down to 6.6% from 7.1%—and higher inflation expectations of about 5.1%, driven by an ongoing oil shock and geopolitical tension in West Asia. Analyst Kunal Saraogi told...
Week Ahead: Trump-Xi and US-China CPI
Investors are betting that the Middle East cease‑fire will hold, lifting risk assets as oil prices retreat. WTI slipped 7% to about $95 a barrel and Brent fell 6.6% to $101, reversing two weeks of gains. The week’s data focus...
Gold's Drivers: Geopolitics, De‑Dollarization, Yields, Not Headlines
I joined @cnbcarabiatv to discuss what's actually moving gold right now — geopolitical fragmentation, de-dollarization, real yields, and why energy shocks can temporarily override the traditional safe-haven narrative. Strategic allocation is about context, not headlines. Discipline in sizing matters more than the...
Trade Integration Cuts War Risk, De‑risking Limits Peace Gains
"Why ‘de-risking’ may not deliver a large peace dividend" https://t.co/maK8q2CpW8 "Our estimates show that greater trade integration lowers the probability that a dispute escalates to the highest levels of hostility, which involve use of military force and high-casualty wars." https://t.co/NyNiSm6CC6
China’s Cars Aren’t in the U.S., but Its Auto Parts Are Everywhere
Chinese firms have quietly built a massive footprint in the U.S. automotive supply chain, owning stakes in roughly 10,000 American parts suppliers. More than 60 of those suppliers are directly controlled by Chinese companies, ranging from air‑bag producers to glass...
UK Yields Exceed Italy, Not a Weakness, ECB Cap Effect
The UK's long-term gov't bond yields (lhs) are now far above those of Italy (rhs). This doesn't mean the UK is in worse shape. It's just a reflection of past ECB actions to aggressively cap Italian yields. I talked about...
Healthcare Adds 1.8 M Jobs; Other Sectors Lose 128 K
Insane stat: Healthcare and Social Assistance have added nearly 1.8 million private-sector jobs in the US since the end of 2023 while all of other industries combined have lost 127,800 jobs. https://t.co/LpZ31hL2fD
K‑Shaped Economy Goes Far Beyond Wealth and Spending
FWIW - What people think the K-Shaped Economy is is just the tip of what the K-Shaped Economy is all about. Wealth, incomes, and spending just scratch the surface.
China's April Crude Imports Plunge Below 2019 Levels
Big drop in crude import volumes out of China in April Imports dipped below 2019 levels Clearly helped stabilize the global market (gas imports also down) https://t.co/XJmsiZkLkp
Rising Chip Prices Boost Chinese Export Volume Growth
Estimating Chinese export and import volumes is challenging now, as rising chip prices are pushing up export and import prices -- if March prices carried over, April export volumes were around 15% ... and export volume growth is accelerating at the...
China’s Chip Imports Surge to $50B, Oil Stalls
If you want to sell to China, it sure helps to make chips -- at least right now. April chips imports topped USD 50b Note the lack of any bounce in oil imports in dollars terms as well 1/ https://t.co/sc6I5sL5uw
China's Vehicle Exports Surge 50% to 12 Million
50% y/y growth in vehicle export volumes pushed China's April vehicle exports to an annualized pace of 11.2 million. Full year exports could reach 12m, passenger car exports are on track to to 10m -- 1/2 https://t.co/7rRg8aSumT
China's April Exports Rise; Import Growth Slows
China's April export shipments rose 14.1% while its imports increased 25.3% in April, below the 27.8% in March. https://t.co/NOYBqEfdgZ
New Canadian Sovereign Wealth Fund Faces Sharp Critique
Detailed and interesting critique of the new Canadian sovereign wealth fund, by @Simon_Nixon - recommend a close read #cdnpoli https://t.co/RpayH7An8Q
Investors See Middle East Conflict De‑escalating Amid Ceasefire Violations
Week Ahead: Trump-Xi and US-China CPI: There were several developments to note last week, but arguably the most important was that investors are optimistic that the Middle East war is winding down despite some violations of the ceasefire. June WTI...
Strong US Data Yet Dollar Declines, Signaling Regime Shift
I'm doing a live stream at 9 am (ET) this morning. I'll talk about how much the Dollar is falling and how we're seeing mounting signs of regime change, whereby strong US data see the Dollar fall. That's how it...
Brazilian Real Leads EM Gains, Set to Dip Below 4.50
The Brazilian Real is now the best-performing EM currency since the start of the war, leaving aside the Hungarian Forint, which is idiosyncratic and about Orban losing the election. The Real has a lot further to go and - unlike...
Dollar Declines vs EM Despite No Peace Deal
It's remarkable how much the Dollar is falling versus EM (blue), even though we don't even have a peace deal yet. Dollar down is a really high-conviction trade that people are putting on already now because they know they'll get...
CPI Data and Yen Moves Dominate Upcoming Week
Week ahead highlights: US and PRC CPI, Bessent talks $JPY in Japan, and G2 summit in Beijing. After ordering Fed to check exchange rates in Jan, Bessent quiet on recent BOJ intervention. Outcome of Xi-Trump likely minimal. See...
Fertilizer Shortage Spikes Potato Prices, Makes $136k Spenders Millionaires
FACT: If you spent $136,000 on potatoes last month, you'd be a millionaire right now. Potato prices have skyrocketed from €2.5 to €18.5 per 100 kg because fertiliser supplies are drying up after the Strait of Hormuz was closed. https://t.co/vyaLL0pKgh