Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
The Reserve Bank of India intervened through state‑run banks, selling dollars to keep the rupee from slipping past the 94 per dollar barrier. The move came as a wave of non‑deliverable forward (NDF) maturities and foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows threatened to deepen the currency's decline.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed a $9 billion free‑trade agreement, ending eight years of talks. The pact opens markets for goods, services, defence, maritime security and digital trade, and launches talks on...
The latest two‑year Treasury note auction attracted below‑average demand, sending the yield down four basis points to 3.86%. The softening appetite reflects waning safe‑haven appeal as investors weigh Middle‑East tensions and a mixed equity outlook.
Wall Street opened lower on Wednesday as the S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 6,556.37, the Dow Jones slipped 0.2% to 46,124.06 and the Nasdaq dropped 0.8% to 21,761.89. The moves came amid fresh missile strikes by Iran on Israeli cities,...
Jack Ma, Alibaba founder, says Southeast Asia will eclipse China as the next global economic powerhouse. He cites China’s aging population, regulatory crackdowns, and real‑estate woes, contrasted with the region’s 680 million‑strong, youthful workforce and multilingual talent. Singapore serves as a...
![[Episode #272] – Global Energy Crisis 2026](/cdn-cgi/image/width=1200,quality=75,format=auto,fit=cover/https://cdn.xenetwork.org/ets/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/powerpress/ETS-PodcastArtwork-full.png)
In this episode, host Chris Nelder and oil market analyst Rory Johnson dissect the unfolding global energy crisis triggered by the U.S.-Israel bombing of Iran, which has crippled Persian Gulf oil and gas exports. They compare the current shock to...
Africa has all the wealth, however, once extracted, it lands on the balance sheets of Western Entities and the benefits accrue to foreign powers.
EU auditors say the European Commission has failed to dismantle longstanding barriers to cross‑border services, with about 60% of obstacles identified in 2006 still in place. The services sector, accounting for roughly 70% of EU GDP and employment, contributes only...
Cool, cool, cool... "At least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity is at a halt following Ukrainian drone attacks, a disputed attack on a major pipeline and the seizure of tankers ... the most severe oil supply disruption in the modern...
Canada’s 5‑year government bond yield surged from 2.6% to 3.2% within weeks, while the 30‑year benchmark climbed to 4%, reflecting heightened inflation fears tied to the Ukraine war, soaring energy costs and lingering tariff pressures. The yield jump has already...
The ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to trap offshore‑wind components fabricated in the United Arab Emirates. Projects in the UK’s Norfolk waters and several German‑Netherlands North Sea farms, each slated to power millions of...
Ukraine launched a massive drone strike on Russia’s Ust‑Luga Baltic port, igniting storage tanks at Novatek’s oil‑product facilities and forcing a halt to crude loadings of roughly 450,000 barrels per day. Russian defenses intercepted 389 drones, the highest number recorded...
Iran’s state media announced a set of conditions it deems essential for ending the conflict with the United States, insisting the war can only cease on Tehran’s terms and without any dictate from former President Trump. The demands include a...
Washington is advancing a 15‑point framework aimed at ending the ongoing Iran‑Israel hostilities, according to Channel 12. The plan calls for a month‑long ceasefire followed by intensive diplomatic talks to secure a permanent peace settlement. U.S. officials hope the proposal...
Malaysia has attracted over $5 billion of foreign currency‑denominated debt in 2025, the largest inflow in Southeast Asia, pushing the ringgit to its strongest level since 2018. The country’s strategic shift toward mid‑stream semiconductor activities in Penang and aggressive fiscal reforms,...
Balance of the month cash Dubai crude barrels (white line) still trading higher than the prompt Oman futures (blue) I'm seeing quoted this morning, which are down more sharply, but spot Middle East barrels certainly feeling less pressure and all...
Powell's Inflation Excuse – It's All BS! Powell: "Inflation was global so you can't blame us." Me: That's BS. Every central bank made the same mistake – cutting rates, printing money, flooding economies. That doesn't excuse the Fed. It proves they ALL...
China is projected to overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy within the next decade, according to a University of Hong Kong political science professor. The forecast draws on IMF and World Bank growth trends that show China’s...
It may be tempting to think that the rise in yields is the product of a US-centric dynamic (relating to OPEC recycling no/fewer petrodollars into Treasuries), but the next chart shows that yields are rising everywhere. This is global reset,...
Markets don’t really care who controls the Strait of Hormuz as long as the oil starts to flow again — “give markets what they want” doesn’t necessarily mean a US win.
The Iran‑Israel war has shut the Strait of Hormuz, driving up Asian LNG prices and prompting Beijing to reconsider its heavy reliance on maritime energy imports. Analysts say the disruption revives interest in the stalled Power of Siberia‑2 pipeline, a...
I am not sure that is in Tehran's interest to hold out forever. If they usher in a 1970s style global recession, the "gloves are off." They too have an interest in negotiating somewhere within the Area N. As close...
UK businesses face a jump of up to 80% in gas bills on Iran war https://t.co/THZNalojSw via @EamonFarhat https://t.co/vr4PvVdKFc
The U.S. regulator’s latest proposal to ease capital adequacy rules for the nation’s largest banks marks a reversal of post‑2008 reforms aimed at curbing systemic risk. Critics argue the move weakens loss‑absorbing buffers, reviving the “too‑big‑to‑fail” dynamic that forces taxpayers...
Copper down 10% this month. Gold at $4,550+. Same planet. Completely different signals. One screams recession. One screams fear. $CPER $GLD https://t.co/kChEJn36lH
Wild swings in the US quarterly current account deficit over the course of 2025 -- from close to 6 pp of GDP in q1 to well under 3% of GDP in q4 ... 1/ https://t.co/2EuT5nM3jZ
The IMF warns that Europe’s productivity gap with the United States is widening as firms struggle to scale. Young European companies are valued at just $5 trillion compared with $42.9 trillion for their U.S. peers, and the average EU firm employs only...
Four weeks into the US-Israeli war on Iran, 61% of Americans say they disapprove of US military strikes against Iran. THE US PUBLIC HAS TURNED ON THE WAR PRESIDENT. https://t.co/ICQnIktBVK
🛑So let me get this straight: President Trump waived sanctions on Russian oil at sea and released millions of barrels from the SPR to bring oil prices down. Then Zelensky struck Russian oil ports and terminals, tightening oil supply and pushing...
The Atlantic Council piece critiques recent U.S. rhetoric, especially former President Trump’s aggressive language toward Iran, for offering no tangible solutions to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. While Tehran threatens to disrupt the roughly $100 billion daily oil flow, Washington’s...
$EEM -3.44% in ONE session. Emerging markets are getting destroyed. War + strong dollar + commodity chaos = perfect storm. $DXY $EFA https://t.co/WNM0jw3qha
Thoughts on the Dollar: The dollar's resilience since the war began is not a mystery, but it is being misread. The Dollar Index has appreciated roughly 1.8% this month alone, following a modest 0.65% gain in February after January's 1.35%...
Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal warned that the ongoing global war, while not involving India directly, creates collateral trade difficulties for the country. He highlighted India’s aggressive trade‑diplomacy, noting free‑trade agreements with 38 developed nations that grant preferential...
I’m looking forward to being “Hedgeye Live" in May. It will be a candid, data-driven discussion between me and @KeithMcCullough on the Fed, the economy, and markets — Get your tickets:https://t.co/jaW2cXRAUD #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy #hedgeye https://t.co/y6q60MXSYn
While the 10-year yield broke out of a short term range, the weekly chart below still shows bonds holding within a long triangle (in place since 2022). If it breaks, it will be a problem not only for bonds but...
Analysts say the U.S. housing market has turned into a buyer’s‑market, with inventory outpacing demand and home‑buying costs climbing. A 3.2% construction inflation forecast in Ireland and record‑high participation in Lowe’s spring promotions highlight broader cost pressures on buyers.
Today's Opening Bell Iran Talks Stall- Gold Rallies, Oil Slides, USD Holds (asset chaptered) https://t.co/TmUUL0psrk
Heads up that I'll be LIVE on @BNNBloomberg to talk oil markets and the [??end of??] the Iran War this morning at 11:15am ET. https://t.co/bqG3IGwkQS
Yes, and the kicker is that these governments keep signing real, durable, comprehensive FREE TRADE deals without imposing costly new taxes (tariffs) on their consumers. Almost as if....
I find the oil futures curve to be a useful way of keeping track of news out of the Middle East, as it provides a useful metric for assessing what's changing, and how much. https://t.co/Hl3XzfUEfP
According to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, Americans now see the economy and foreign conflicts as the top two problems facing the country today. TRUMP = THE TARIFF MAN = THE WARMONGER = TANKING. https://t.co/rMaXFSELV1
Trump's war in Iran isn't going to collapse the U.S. economy. But it'll lead to further souring of consumer sentiment, even as it hurts the rest of the world. America will rightfully be seen as a chaos agent who leaves...
Which countries are most dependent on fertilizer through the Straits of Hormuz. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/r2Cnz3sGtS
I asked White House senior counselor Peter Navarro about the timeline of making the 10% global tariff into a 15% tariff, something he says is "in process." "I wouldn't get too lost in the day to day on that," he...
Taiwan politics isn’t just a local issue. When a party like the KMT shapes how closely the country engages with China and the US, it influences a supply chain the entire world depends on. That’s why it matters far beyond Taiwan. https://t.co/2eGMOnyZKp
the @federalreserve has cut interest rates six times since Sep '244 and U.S. 10-year yields $TNX have risen from 3.7% to 4.4% since that cutting program began... https://t.co/EQHFpoQsIC
Every oil analyst reading the Iran War's done headlines and watching the Iran War's done price action waiting for the Strait of Hormuz to actually begin flowing again https://t.co/4kBqUoI2Np
"Rather than being a sign of weakness, TACO is working in Trump’s favor. No one knows for certain when or if he’ll try to end the war, which has been enough to stop traders from pushing up the oil price."...
🚨 Markets are surging - but Iran says truce, talks NOT viable in current conditions Missiles are still flying Oil is driving EVERYTHING ⚠️Is this a real move or a trap? Here's what I'm watching before I touch anything $SPY $GLD $USO $DXY $EURUSD...
"US Import Prices Jump by Most in Nearly Four Years Ahead of Iran War" "Excluding petroleum, import costs advanced 1.2%, the most since January 2022 and driven by higher prices for capital goods and consumer merchandise excluding automobiles." https://t.co/0glmjMPmLR
