Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Goodbye GDP? 31 Ways to Replace the World's Favourite Measure of Economic Health
The United Nations unveiled a draft framework of 31 new annual indicators designed to sit alongside gross domestic product (GDP) as a more holistic gauge of national progress. The proposal, detailed in the report "Counting What Counts," blends economic, environmental, health, education and wellbeing metrics, with fifteen already embedded in the Sustainable Development Goals. Co‑chaired by economists Kaushik Basu and Nora Lustig, the initiative marks the first time a UN secretary‑general has formally responded to member‑state calls to move beyond GDP. The launch drew mixed reactions from scholars and policymakers.
Data‑center Slowdown Warns of Broader Economic Weakness
Point72 on signaling a weakening consumer. They were bullish last year and sounding more cautious at the moment. AI spending is truly carrying the economy. My 2c: If/when we see a drop in data center buildout we can expect a weak...
Peter Harrell Nails
Hard to beat Peter Harrell's take on the Court of International Trade's ruling on the section 122 tariffs -- 1/ a few
Japan Wage Growth Streak Hits Three Months, Putting June BOJ Move in Focus
Japan's real wages rose 1.0% year‑on‑year in March, marking a third consecutive month of growth and signaling a labour market that is translating nominal wage gains into purchasing power. Total cash earnings increased 2.7% YoY, falling short of the 3.2%...
US, Iran Again Exchange Fire in Hormuz
US and Iranian forces exchanged fire again on May 7 as US destroyers attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian units launched missiles, drones and small boats at three US warships, prompting a US counterstrike on Iranian missile launch...
US Court Finds 'Section 122' Tariffs Unlawful
A federal Court of International Trade ruled 2‑1 that the 10% “section 122” tariffs imposed by President Trump in February are unlawful under the 1974 balance‑of‑payments law. The court found the proclamation lacked a proper deficit determination, permanently blocking collection...
Deutsche Bank Flags Inconsistent Market Pricing as Iran Conflict Drags On
Deutsche Bank’s research note warns that markets are pricing the Iran conflict inconsistently across asset classes. Treasury yields have tracked oil prices, suggesting a prolonged inflationary shock, while equities have decoupled, treating the disruption as temporary. At the same time,...
China’s Move to Cut EV Payment Cycles May Push Weaker Carmakers Out: S&P
Beijing has tightened oversight of price competition by forcing EV makers to shorten supplier payment cycles, cutting average terms from up to 300 days to around 50 days. S&P Global Ratings warns that the tighter cash‑flow regime will increase borrowing...
Why ‘De-Risking’ May Not Deliver a Large Peace Dividend
Since 2018, policymakers have championed ‘de‑risking’ to shield economies from coercion, but new research shows that trade itself can act as a powerful stabiliser. By exploiting the uneven impact of the late‑20th‑century aviation revolution, the authors identify a causal link:...
Trump’s 10% Global Tariffs Struck Down by Federal Court in New Blow to President’s Policy
A federal Court of International Trade invalidated President Donald Trump’s 10% blanket tariffs on imports, ruling 2‑1 that the measures exceed authority under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The challenge was brought by small businesses who argued the...
Court Rules Trump's 2026 Tariff Illegal Under Trade Law
Check, meet balance: federal judges found President Donald J. Trump had violated the law when he imposed a 10% tariff on most U.S. imports in February 2026. “In a split ruling, the Court of International Trade found that Trump had...
Wrapped in a Boeing: Will Trump’s China Visit Include Another Aircraft Deal?
President Donald Trump’s upcoming state visit to Beijing comes amid a U.S.-Iran war that is tightening global energy supplies and heightening economic uncertainty. The 2017 $37 billion, 300‑plane Boeing deal secured during his last China trip has stalled due to sanctions,...
Falling Freight Rates Drive Maersk to Q1 Loss in Shipping Segment
Maersk’s ocean‑shipping division recorded a $192 million EBIT loss in Q1 as freight rates fell 14% while volumes rose over 9%. The loss was driven primarily by a two‑thirds jump in bunker fuel costs, adding roughly $500 million each month. Despite the...
Lubricant Disruption Threatens Machinery Operation & Economic Upheaval; Chevron CEO Glazes US Low Risk (Not Low)
The United States imports roughly 44% of its base‑oil feedstock from the Persian Gulf, a critical component for all lubricants and industrial oils. Recent disruptions to that supply threaten to halt machinery, potentially sparking broader economic slowdown. Chevron’s CEO reassured...
Ask How Systems Work, Not Who’s Winning
People often ask whether China or the West is “winning.” That’s the wrong question. The more useful question is: how do different systems work, and what trade-offs do they make? When you look at history, geopolitics, and economics together, you start to see...
Canceling Buybacks Shifts Money From Share Demand to Real‑Economy Investment
I'm told focusing on the shift from share repurchase to capex is a "dumb argument" 101 It most certainly appears dumb if you don't understand the implication. Google cancelled its share repurchase from 60BN per year to zero to...
Trump-Xi Summit Set to Weigh Iran Oil, Taiwan and US Exports
The Trump‑Xi summit will convene in Beijing on May 14‑15, tackling a packed agenda that includes Iranian oil sanctions, Chinese “teapot” refineries, Taiwan arms sales, and the release of Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai. U.S. officials stress that while Iran‑related oil...
Hormuz Hangs over Beijing Summit
President Donald Trump is set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping amid a growing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian actions have threatened global oil flow. The White House has pressed Beijing to use its influence over Tehran...
Barrett Sees Growth for Victoria’s Economy Despite Challenging Headwinds
Chris Barrett, head of Victoria’s Department of Finance and Treasury, warned that rising interest rates and a global oil shock will dampen the state’s economic growth this fiscal year. He noted the cash‑rate target has risen to 4.35%, tightening financing...
PIMCO Flags Widening Gap Between Core CPI and Core PCE as AI Fuels Inflation
PIMCO’s latest macro signpost reveals core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation surged to 4.1% in February 2026, while core CPI remains subdued, creating a 60‑basis‑point positive gap—the largest swing since 1985. The divergence, driven by AI‑related demand and energy‑price pressures,...
World Bank Warns 24% Energy Price Jump in 2026 as Geopolitical Shocks Widen
The World Bank’s new Commodity Markets Outlook warns that heightened geopolitical risk will push global energy prices up 24% in 2026, far exceeding past oil‑supply shocks. The forecast follows the Middle‑East war’s impact on oil output and shipping, signaling broader...
Ecuador Raises $1 Billion in Dollar Bonds as Oil Prices Spur Demand
Ecuador sold an additional $1 billion of dollar‑denominated sovereign bonds, pricing the 2034 issue at 8.25% and the 2039 issue at 8.75%. The issuance taps stronger oil revenues and a resurgence of investor interest in emerging‑market debt.
Oil Price Plunge on Iran‑Peace Hopes Sparks Broad U.S. Stock Rally
Optimism that Washington and Tehran are nearing a tanker‑deal drove Brent crude 3.8% lower to $97.38 a barrel, prompting the Dow Jones up 59 points, the S&P 500 0.1% and the Nasdaq 0.2% on May 7. Strong earnings from DoorDash, Datadog...
Ringgit Gains to 3.92/USD Ahead of Bank Negara’s OPR Decision
The Malaysian ringgit strengthened to 3.9230‑3.9275 per US dollar on Thursday, buoyed by falling oil prices and a softer US dollar index. Traders are eyeing Bank Negara Malaysia’s overnight policy rate (OPR) meeting, where the rate is widely expected to...
Nasdaq Fades Late as Hormuz Tension Flares: Stock Market Today
U.S. equity indexes closed lower on Wednesday after the Wall Street Journal reported the Trump administration is preparing to restart “Project Freedom,” an effort to force open the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil fell to under $90 per barrel before...
House Labor Caucus Joins Growing Backlash Against Trump’s Jones Act Waiver Extension
The White House extended a Jones Act emergency waiver for another 90 days, allowing foreign‑flag vessels to transport fuel, fertilizer and other cargoes between U.S. ports amid Middle East shipping disruptions. House Labor Caucus co‑chairs Donald Norcross, Mark Pocan, Steven...
AMERICA'S BIGGEST EXPORT IS NOW GOLD FOR 5 STRIAGHT MONTHS: The Record Bullion Drain to China, the 1971 Parallel, and...
U.S. gold has become the nation’s top export for five straight months, outpacing oil, pharmaceuticals and aerospace. The bulk of the bullion is routed through Swiss refineries and ends up in Chinese vaults, reflecting Beijing’s push for hard assets in...
IMF Warns of 'Inevitable' AI-Powered Threats to World
The International Monetary Fund issued a warning that AI‑driven cyber‑attacks pose a systemic threat to global financial stability. Its latest report says extreme AI‑enabled incidents could strain funding, jeopardize solvency and disrupt markets. The IMF highlights that advanced models dramatically...
Farmer Sentiment in a Time of War, Both Trade and Kinetic
The Purdue/CME Ag Econ Barometer shows farmer sentiment staying higher than end‑2024 levels despite a year‑long trade war and two months of kinetic conflict with Iran. A regression linking the index to the Trump administration dummy, agricultural commodity prices and...
AI and Automation Reduce the Importance of Population Size
With AI and automation, are population sizes going to be as important? Source: Visual Capitalist https://www.voronoiapp.com/demographics/-Chinas-Population-Already-Peaked-in-2021-4106
Mortgage Rate Rally Falters Amid Rising Yields, Weak Jobs Outlook
Is this week's mortgage rate rally already running out of steam? Bond yields are back up, oil prices are back up, mortgage rates no longer falling... And we have another jobs report tomorrow with a very low bar to clear, just 55k...
Michele Bullock Has Made a Bold Move – and It’s Not the Rate Rise
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock broke her usual reticence by providing clearer forward guidance on the nation’s interest‑rate trajectory. Instead of deflecting questions, she hinted that upcoming rate hikes may slow, offering markets a rare glimpse into policy...
Call Out China Threat, Drop “Imbalance” Rhetoric
Hauge to me and Pettis: "Don't hide behind the language of "imbalances." If you think China is a competitive threat and that wealthy nations should actively use industrial policy to keep it at bay, say so" I object to the idea...
Court Blocks New 10% Tariffs, Importers Remain Victorious
The Court of International Trade just blocked the new 10% tariffs that Trump admin put in place after the Supreme Court blocked the IEEPA tariffs. Importers stay winning.
Trump‑Xi Summit May Rival Nixon‑Mao 1972 Historic Meeting
.@tomfriedman: “The summit between President Trump and President Xi Jinping in Beijing next week could be the most significant encounter between American and Chinese leaders since Richard Nixon met Mao Zedong in Beijing in 1972.” https://t.co/AATXBhthnH
China's Dip‑buying Fuels Emerging Global Gold Rush
China continues to buy the dip in gold. A global gold rush is unfolding right in front of our eyes. https://t.co/mQgTbFf90L https://t.co/QRErTYJHa9
Biz Leaders Upset over White House CEO Role
American business leaders are frustrated over what they describe as mixed signals from the White House about the role CEOs will play in President Donald Trump’s upcoming trip to Beijing. via @_AriHawkins and @dlippman https://t.co/nYf9e559TE
UK Q1 Growth Looks Rosy, Yet Public Trust Declines
Figures next week are likely to paint a rosy picture for the UK economy in the first quarter. The trouble is that fewer and fewer people believe them. https://t.co/VLTbMGcrKu
Russia Sells Ruble, Buys Yuan to Curb Appreciation
Since the US-Israeli war on Iran, oil prices have SURGED & so has the value of the Russian ruble. To prevent the ruble from excessive strengthening, Russia is SELLING the ruble & BUYING foreign currency, primarily the Chinese yuan. https://t.co/zThMoq7cun
Brazil Hits Record Soybean Exports, China Takes 69%
🇧🇷Brazil exported 16.7 million metric tons (615 mbu) of soybeans in April, a new all-time record. Brazil exported a record 40 mmt (1.48 bbu) in the first four months of 2026. Top destinations by share: 🇨🇳China 69% 🇪🇺EU 8% 🇹🇷Turkey 4% 🇹🇭Thailand 3% https://t.co/YKBbfHBknk
Korea's Stocks Surge 200% Over Past Year
If you're wondering why Korea is up 200% in the past year... via @DeutscheBank https://t.co/RzRnRQCUF2 https://t.co/dAFDIzNDQq
Iran, U.S. Mulling One‑Page Plan to Reopen Hormuz
NYT: Three senior Iranian officials say Tehran and the United States are discussing a one-page plan for both sides to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities for 30 days while they try to reach a comprehensive deal. https://t.co/X7quMi0g38
Oil Shock Persists: Tight Global Fuel Supplies for Months
Oil Shock Far From Over: Energy Giants Warn Global Fuel Supplies May Stay Tight for Months After Iran Deal. And the longer it takes to get a deal? https://t.co/sOpjmIj1ok
Resolving Iran Tensions to Revive Trade War Focus
How patriotic. Hopefully we will have resolved the US-Iran conflict by then so we can fully focus on the revival of the trade war headlines.
Milei's Dollarization Needed to Tame Inflation
As I’ve said since day one, if Milei failed to dollarize Argentina, he wouldn’t be able to control inflation. INFLATION = MILEI’S ACHILLES' HEEL. https://t.co/Fhu9f7yOmX
Biden Didn't Initiate Iran War Closing Hormuz Strait
Bro. Biden didn’t start a War with Iran that closed the Strait of Hormuz stranding 20% of the world’s oil shipments.
Global Debt Surges to $353 Trillion, US Influence Wanes
Global debt hits record of near $353 trillion, with signs of move away from US https://t.co/ODETyZsMTB
US Labor Share Hits Record Low Since 1947
Labor's share of output (nonfarm business) fell to 54.1% in the first quarter, the lowest since records begin going back to 1947. "not so good news for society and our politics" - @KrishnaRSGuha https://t.co/D58YlaQefG
Hormuz Crisis Sparks Oil Shock and Market Outlook
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I'm joined by the one and only @ericnuttall to talk about the ongoing Hormuz crisis oil supply shock, how oil and gas equities are pricing the conflict, and what...
EU Seeks Talks, Putin Demands Constructive Stance
EU prepares for ‘potential’ talks with Vladimir Putin, says @eucopresident. But did anyone ask Russia? “Putin’s message is we are prepared to be constructive if you are prepared to be constructive. But if you are not then we are not interested.”...