Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
U.S. equities retreated on Tuesday as the S&P 500 slipped 0.4%, the Dow Jones fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.8% amid fresh missile strikes in the Middle East and contradictory statements from President Donald Trump and Tehran. The market turbulence was amplified by rising oil prices, higher Treasury yields and mixed futures activity.
The Business Council of Australia warned that a looming supply shock and accelerating inflation will put corporate trust to the test, as consumer confidence falls to its lowest level since the index began in 1973. ANZ’s head of strategic communications...
Roy Morgan’s February 2026 analysis shows that 30.3 % of Australian mortgage holders would be “at risk” of stress if the Reserve Bank of Australia raises the cash rate by another 25 basis points in May, pushing stress levels back to...
Indonesia is seeing a surge in coal and crude palm oil (CPO) prices as the US‑Israeli war on Iran pushes oil to about $100 a barrel, prompting countries to seek cheaper coal and bio‑fuel alternatives. Newcastle coal futures have climbed...
Australia is experiencing a fresh inflation shock as petrol and diesel prices surge. The spike affects roughly half of the consumer price index basket, given the nation’s reliance on diesel‑powered logistics. Rising diesel costs also lift fertilizer prices, adding upward...
The U.S.-led war in Iran has sent oil prices soaring, pushing gasoline costs for a heavy‑duty pickup in Houston from about $70 to $90 per tank. Phrostibe Italian Ice, a family‑run mobile vendor, is feeling the squeeze, redesigning delivery routes,...
Economists note February CPI showed modest food price shifts—beef remains high while chicken and eggs fell. A new conflict with Iran has driven Texas gasoline up 90 cents, a 38% jump, foreshadowing higher March CPI. The war threatens the Strait...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has accelerated its tightening cycle, pushing the cash rate to 4.35% as inflation remains above target. The aggressive stance has sharply increased borrowing costs for households and businesses, curbing consumption and investment. Critics argue...
British Chambers of Commerce chief Shevaun Haviland will urge UK ministers to keep an energy‑bailout option on the table as the Iran‑Israel conflict drives oil prices higher, warning that disrupted shipping lanes will lift business energy costs. She stresses calm,...
Barclays predicts the European Central Bank will begin tightening as early as next month, with two rate hikes anticipated in 2024, driven by a renewed energy‑inflation shock stemming from the Middle East conflict. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected...
This is a really great divergent policy thought we should keep on our radar. If it comes to fruition, we could see a collapse in treasury yields. Fantastic work from @ericwallerstein ! “The solution: the Fed should expand FIMA access to sovereign wealth...
Australia is confronting an acute diesel shortage that is beginning to choke key sectors of its economy. DP World Australia warned that without prioritized fuel deliveries, container terminals could slow or cease operations, jeopardizing both imports and exports. Rising fuel...
Asian economies from India to South Korea are feeling a double squeeze as oil prices spike and the U.S. dollar reaches its strongest level against regional currencies in two decades. The war in the Middle East has choked the Strait...
President Donald Trump announced a two‑day visit to Beijing on May 14‑15, contingent on the Iran war ending by May 13. The trip follows his public statement linking the cease‑fire to his diplomatic agenda. Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Justice...
It's the first time in 60 years you've heard Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar all sing from the same song sheet, saying status quo doesn't work. That's really good for everybody because that's a lot more trade into Asia. That'll...
U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly considering a public cease‑fire announcement with Iran as early as Saturday, even if no formal agreement is in place. Israeli officials, cited by outlets such as N12 and Al Qahera, view the move as...
Canada Doesn’t Need New Pipelines, Despite Oil Shock Economist Werner Antweiler says that a short-term oil shock doesn't overcome the many reasons why Asia won't be a market for Alberta heavy sour crude. #abpoli #ableg https://youtu.be/GUwULJF2jfc
Oil markets have been jolted by the 2026 Iran war, with prices swinging sharply on each new development. The volatility makes pure‑play energy exposure risky for investors and advisors. FlexShares Morningstar Global Upstream Natural Resources ETF (GUNR) offers a diversified...
A poll of 641 Middle‑East scholars shows only 5% backed a U.S.–Israeli war on Iran and just 1% expected a pro‑American regime change, while 84% anticipate significant instability in Iran over the next five years. Experts correctly predicted that the...
Federal Reserve Governor Miran delivered a strongly dovish speech, arguing that inflation risks are muted despite a recent oil price surge. He cited measurement challenges and minimal impact on market inflation expectations, while warning that the labor market is on...
Saudi Arabia has accelerated its push into Africa, pledging $41 bn of investment through Vision 2030 to diversify away from oil. The focus centers on logistics hubs like Djibouti, large‑scale renewable energy and desalination projects, and securing food and mineral supplies....
A sudden $580 million rush of oil futures contracts hit the market minutes before President Donald Trump announced a five‑day cease‑fire on attacks against Iran, prompting the CFTC to launch an insider‑trading investigation. The spike coincided with a 10% drop in...
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. placed the Philippines under a one‑year national energy emergency and announced a plan to purchase one million barrels of oil to extend the country's fuel stock to about 45 days. The move follows a sharp price...
This volatile oil price remains at the mercy of a flood of (often-contradictory) headlines emanating from the three warring parties — US, Iran, and Israel. #economy #oil #markets #energy #middleeastwar
TLT lost $1.2B. HYG lost $623M. 10Y at 4.38% and rising. In a war. Who buys the bond dip? Foreign CBs may be selling to defend currencies vs DXY near 100. Pension funds face oil inflation that muddies the real yield math. Rate-cut traders...
Emerging‑market corporate bonds are delivering yields well above U.S. benchmarks, and the WisdomTree Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Fund (EMCB) exemplifies this trend with a 5.07% SEC yield. The actively managed ETF holds a 3.97‑year effective duration, positioning it as an...
Oil prices up 20% in weeks. 1 day alone added 9%. In 1973, a supply shock like this wiped 45% off the stock market and sent gold up over 2000%. I have spent 55 years building an alternative framework for understanding how...
The market prices a ceasefire and full-scale war simultaneously. Diplomatic pause: oil -10%. Iran denial: oil +4%. SPY -0.80%. Same week. Opposite pricing. 48 hours apart. Beneath the whipsaw, TLT keeps bleeding. Spreads widen. Copper stays down 10% monthly. Breadth broken. Geopolitical noise drives...
Asian ocean carriers are currently managing bunker fuel supplies, but tightening inventories signal a looming shortage if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Global fuel suppliers warn that prolonged closure could trigger worldwide deficits. To cushion the impact, operators are...
Singapore’s Monetary Authority has invited Ripple to join its Borderless, Liquid, Open, Online, Multicurrency initiative, using the XRP Ledger and Ripple’s USD‑linked stablecoin (RLUSD) to settle cross‑border trade. The pilot automates payment release the moment a shipment is verified, eliminating...
India’s LPG crisis following closure of the Strait of Hormuz The war between the United States and Iran and closure of Strait of Hormuz has become a critical threat to the supply of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) India relies on for...
I thought this was an interesting interview with a former general about what "boots on the ground" in Iran might look like, and also what would (and wouldn't be accomplished) by some landing on Kharg Island https://t.co/DDEilUbnMz
Canadian auto production slipped another 7% in 2025, falling to 1.2 million vehicles, marking a second consecutive year of decline. The drop is largely attributed to the United States’ 25% tariffs imposed in March and lingering uncertainty around the electric‑vehicle transition....
Delighted to meet 🇯🇵’s Minister of Economy, Trade & Industry Ryosei Akazawa @ryosei_akazawa We spoke about how the Middle East war is impacting oil, gas & other commodities, with particular challenges for Asia – and how we can work together...
The Market Bull/Bear Case: US-Israel War on Iran There's always a bull vs. bear case & I made mine. And just because market is trying to have a reflexive bounce, it doesn't negate that crash risk is still critical as fundamentals...
@grok There are about 20 LNG cargoes stranded in the Gulf because of the Hormuz crisis, explain to my followers how they lose LNG due to evaporation.
I said last June-July: China got the message, Hormuz Strait will be closed, and started preparing for it. Read details below.
My appearance today @OnPointRadio with @MeghnaWBUR talking about the Strait of Hormuz. On Point: https://t.co/X1Zkk3Qebt Spotify: https://t.co/ZpzVC27zml Apple: https://t.co/4ahkNZRGed
My BNN Bloomberg conversation from earlier today for those who missed it. Talked about the state and trajectory of the Iran War, the growing physical-sentiment disconnect in oil markets, and how nothing really matters unless traffic through the Strait of Hormuz...
IEA chief to brief EU finance ministers on Iran war impact this week https://t.co/MQ3pSEFj3B via @europressos https://t.co/7Eo8OA83pz
Italy is said to plan cutting growth forecast to as low as 0.5% https://t.co/H1osZtypmg via @Alemrome @donatopmancini https://t.co/NxADoXpQ0s
Going live with Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran in 40 minutes - tune in! @federalreserve
🚨Hormuz Crisis goes global: Europe is heading for energy shortages, massive price spikes, and deeper reliance on Russian energy. 🚨What is next for US commercial crude inventories after the SPR release? Daily Energy Report https://t.co/W33F3aHN9V
A lot of oil importers have been intervening pretty heavily to keep their currencies from depreciating and adding to the oil price shock. Turkey is one of the more interesting cases, as its fx reserves remain limited 1/2 https://t.co/zsikWfgTxD
TEN TRILLION DOLLARS of existing US gov’t debt needs to be refinanced in the next 12 months. This spells more trouble for the out-of-control federal budget in which net interest expense already accounts for 14% of federal spending and is growing...
🆓 Wednesday links: gold's safe-haven status, standalone Siri, and the economic pain of the Iran war. https://t.co/2egB9QZjgV image: https://t.co/98xXyDFF3F https://t.co/3zk2NqUkqL
Coming to terms with the fact that no matter how the Iran War and Hormuz crisis ends it’s going to be far harder going forward to scoff at claims that the paper market isn’t pricing in physical oil market realities. Catastrophic...
International Chamber of Commerce head. May be facing ‘worst industrial crisis’. Iran war. Strait. Supply of supply chains.
🚨 LATEST Iran grants Spain free passage through the Strait of Hormuz The move comes right after Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez publicly called the war “illegal” and a “colossal mistake.” https://t.co/l8uXSjtTvr
Strait closure. Global chemical supply chains and production? And what those chemicals are needed for?
