Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
A technical indicator flagged a bearish pattern across U.S. equity futures, prompting short‑term traders to reassess risk. The signal arrived as Brent crude hovered above $100, gold slipped 15% month‑over‑month, and geopolitical tension in the Middle East intensified. Analysts warn that volatility could stay elevated until de‑escalation signals emerge.
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene said she is "not close" to voting for a rate hike at the April 30 meeting, despite being the committee's most hawkish voice. She highlighted a sharp rise in one‑year inflation...
The dollar index jumped 0.2% to 99.42 on Thursday, while the euro slipped to $1.1584 and the pound fell to $1.3383 as investors retreated from fleeting optimism over a U.S.–Iran de‑escalation. The move follows a failed peace‑talks narrative, a U.S....
Analysts including S&P Global, Goldman Sachs and the RBI have lowered India's GDP growth outlook, citing soaring oil import bills, geopolitical uncertainty and a weakening rupee. The downgrade reflects widening pressures on the private sector, from corporate tax reforms to...
Foreign investors have sold a net $50.45 billion of Asian equities in March, marking the largest monthly outflow since at least 2008. The sell‑off is tied to renewed Iran‑Israel hostilities, soaring oil prices and heightened risk‑off sentiment across emerging‑market Asia.
Indonesia stands at a crossroads as the United States and European allies push to onshore critical‑mineral supply chains, challenging China’s dominance in the archipelago’s mining sector. The recently signed US‑Indonesia Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) could deepen Western ties, but...
China’s Ministry of Commerce declared Mexico’s recent tariff hikes on over 1,400 products – ranging from 5% to 50% – a breach of trade rules, affecting more than $30 billion in Chinese exports. The measures, which also include stricter customs procedures...
The article traces how Western powers have long portrayed Iran’s oil as a coveted prize, beginning with the 1908 discovery that birthed the Anglo‑Persian Oil Company, later BP. It shows how BP’s interwar advertising turned Iran into an exotic backdrop...
Francis Sabourin, senior investment advisor at Richardson Wealth, continues to keep U.S. equities at the heart of his portfolio while expanding exposure to developed and emerging markets that have outperformed North America in 2024‑2025. His strategy prioritizes business fundamentals over...
$5 Corn May Mark a 2026 Peak Alongside $120 Crude - The December corn future (Dec26) stretch to $4.99 a bushel around the onset of the Iran war on March 9 may have peak inklings akin to Dec22's $7.66 apex...
Australian freight forwarders, backed by APSA and the Freight & Trade Alliance, are seeking government assistance to offset soaring shipping costs caused by the US/Israeli war against Iran. Conflict‑related surcharges and end‑of‑voyage fees are adding up to about $4,000 per...
The U.S. import price index jumped 1.3% month‑over‑month in February, the strongest gain since March 2022, driven by a 3.8% rise in fuel imports and a 1.1% increase in non‑fuel goods. Capital goods such as computers and industrial machinery posted...
U.S. equity futures slipped from 6,678 to 6,660 after an Iranian semi‑official outlet reported Tehran’s rejection of any ceasefire or negotiations with the United States. The report, released at 7:50 a.m. ET, highlighted Iran’s view that talks lack legitimacy and that...
BHP’s Australian operations chief Geraldine Slattery warned that recent geopolitical upheavals are pushing energy security ahead of climate objectives, reshaping policy priorities in major economies. She cited Middle East conflicts and disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz as catalysts for...
Ireland’s Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has revised its 2026 inflation outlook to 3.2% from 2.1%, citing rising energy costs linked to the Iran crisis. The think‑tank warns that prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could push oil...
The United States delivered a 15‑point peace proposal to Iran via Pakistan, prompting Tehran to announce safe passage for non‑hostile tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil benchmarks reacted sharply, with Brent sliding to $98 a barrel and WTI to...
China’s state‑owned policy banks extended roughly $1 trillion in sovereign loans to developing nations over the past two decades, primarily financing large infrastructure projects. The loans were market‑rate, short‑term, and often secured by commodity‑export revenues, creating a massive exposure for borrower...
The outbreak of war in Iran sent shockwaves through global markets, pushing South Korea's KOSPI to its worst session since 2008 and slashing Japan's Nikkei 225 by 10%. Oil prices spiked to briefly clear $115 per barrel before easing. Early...
Global consumer confidence slipped for the first time in nearly a year, with the Ipsos index dropping 0.6 points to 49.4 in March. The decline was driven mainly by weaker current financial assessments and investment intentions, while expectations about jobs...
Price on PLASTICS just DOUBLED‼️ downstream financial repercussions of the Iran war. This is what a supply shock looks like in the real economy.
A PiggyVest survey shows 30% of Nigerians earned less than ₦100,000 (about $217) per month in 2025, the largest income segment, while 28% reported no income, up from 20% in 2023. Although the share earning over ₦1 million ($2,174) rose to...
Uganda’s economy expanded 8.5% in the quarter ended December, up from 5.4% a year earlier, driven by strong consumer demand and a construction surge. The $5 billion East African Crude Oil Pipeline is now 80% complete, positioning the country for oil...
In this episode, Ed Elson and Flexport CEO Ryan Peterson discuss the cascading effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure and Red Sea disruptions on global supply chains, highlighting soaring oil, diesel, and fertilizer prices and a 50% rise in...
The article examines how the escalating Iran crisis could reshape Russia’s gas exports to Europe, a market where Russia still accounts for roughly 40% of supply. It argues that the EU’s recent pivot toward liquefied natural gas (LNG) has swapped...
Intra‑Asia container trade emerged as the most profitable segment in 2025, with volumes nearing 50 million TEU. Taiwan’s Wan Hai Lines posted the highest operating margin at 18.9%, while Cosco’s $4.3 bn net profit was buoyed by strong intra‑Asia earnings. The region’s growth,...
Asia, which purchases more than 80% of the crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz, is confronting a severe fuel shortage after Iran blocked the waterway following its war on February 28. Governments from South Korea to the Philippines are reviving...
A leaked U.S. State Department memo threatens to cut HIV aid for roughly 1.3 million Zambians unless the government grants American firms access to its copper, lithium and cobalt mines. The document frames the move as a direct “America First” extortion...
France, together with Germany, Italy, Spain, Japan, China, India and other nations, is accelerating recovery from the recent oil shock and inflation as US‑Iran peace talks in Islamabad gain momentum. If the negotiations succeed, they could end the Middle East...
The European Union is pressing to ratify the Turnberry agreement, a sweeping U.S.-EU trade pact brokered at former President Trump’s Scottish resort, or risk losing preferential access to American liquefied natural gas. The deal, valued at roughly $750 billion in U.S....
Iran’s abrupt closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil prices soaring, prompting non‑Middle‑East exporters to step into the breach. Canada’s energy minister hailed the country’s surge as a strategic moment, positioning it as a reliable guarantor for allied...
China's state‑backed surge in copper smelting and fabrication now accounts for roughly 80% of new global capacity, tightening markets as the United States lags in domestic investment. The imbalance has prompted 50% Section 232 tariffs and renewed calls for export...
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told a Frankfurt conference that the ECB will act decisively if a surge in energy costs linked to Iran threatens broader inflation. She emphasized the bank will not be "paralyzed by hesitation" and reiterated...
India's REER (Real Effective Exchange Rate) index is substantially below 100, no matter which currency basket we use. Below 100 means the rupee is undervalued. I have issues with the index (which only uses good trade, not services) - if...
Gold $4,550+. Missiles flying. Bonds selling off. The safe haven playbook just got rewritten. $GLD $GC_F $TLT https://t.co/mnn27BiQUs
Sabine Mauderer, chair of the NGFS, warned that heightened policy uncertainty—especially around climate and energy transition—is already dampening economic output and private investment, citing a 0.5% U.S. GDP hit and a $65 billion loss for the global car industry. She highlighted...
Lots of headline whipsaw but call me crazy but I do find market price action useful. Oman oil back down to the 90’s from the 170 highs says this is a wrap https://t.co/0WwZo0Hanz
Trump's tweets can move sentiment, writes @JavierBlas They can’t move reality Two weeks to fix flows—or the market stops listening https://t.co/JOkeWKOjXl #Oil #EnergyMarkets #Hormuz #Inflation #Geopolitics
Ember’s latest study shows that swapping ASEAN’s planned gas‑fired capacity for solar would save the region up to $67 billion and reduce electricity generation costs by roughly 50%. The finding arrives as LNG prices surge after disruptions in the Strait of...
The Fed Already Has What it Needs to Navigate Supply Shocks--my latest newsletter with cameo appearance by @amacker and awesome Don Kohn link from @darioperkins. https://t.co/ihDcQmi2WI https://t.co/jbXalR3zRA
Oil -10% Monday. Oil +4% Tuesday. Same war. Same geopolitics. The volatility IS the signal. $USO $XLE $SPY https://t.co/Od9t9fzbbl
Bank of Japan minutes from the January meeting show policymakers leaning toward additional rate hikes, citing persistent inflation and a depreciating yen. The central bank kept the short‑term rate at 0.75% but signalled a hawkish shift, while markets price a...
Barclays raises 2026 year-end S&P 500 target to 7,650 despite Middle East, inflation risks https://t.co/UIix0xSpIM
"EU says Mercosur free trade deal will start May 1, accounting for 25% of global GDP" https://t.co/357IyH3KRA https://t.co/tpysXMlyjm
Iran's war has shut down more than 20 million barrels of oil per day and driven Brent crude toward $120 a barrel. Tehran has begun charging transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, while soaring prices are pushing Asian importers toward...
I wrote about plastic prices in yesterday's Odd Lots newsletter ahead of today's episode (which you should definitely listen to) Packaging really is an underappreciated driver of inflation, and plastics prices are already spiking You can't buy a bag of carrots without...
Hope Lifts Stocks and Bonds: There continues to be hope in the capital and commodity markets that a US-Israel war on Iran can be brought to a conclusion soon. While news reports indicate that the US had drafted a 15-point...
The episode dissects the market’s upbeat reaction to President Trump’s 15‑point peace proposal aimed at ending the Iran‑U.S. conflict, highlighting how traders are betting on reduced risk despite lingering supply disruptions in oil and refined products. Host commentary contrasts divergent...
The ECB’s response to the current energy price shock will be rooted in our monetary policy strategy which is well equipped to help us navigate it. That was my message at the #ECBWatchers conference. Read my speech https://t.co/dDjDthBlTi https://t.co/p1TD3EuhAz
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 6TH WORST CURRENCY. The pound has depreciated by over 27% against the USD in the past year. https://t.co/6wm9wwnlxP
UK inflation stayed at 3% in the weeks leading up to the Iran war https://t.co/WPMVXJqwKz via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/1H8Ml5iePk
