Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
IGD warns that prolonged Middle East instability could trigger an energy shock that pushes UK food inflation above 8% by June 2026. In its worst‑case scenario, the surge would add roughly $190 to the average household grocery bill, while even a baseline outlook still implies 3.8% inflation and an extra $12.7 billion in annual spending. The forecast follows a brief dip in February, where food prices rose 3.3% year‑on‑year, and highlights the sector’s vulnerability to geopolitical turbulence.
UK inflation held steady in February 2026, with the consumer price index unchanged at 3% and CPIH at 3.2%, while the retail price index slipped to 3.6%. The ongoing US‑Israeli war with Iran has sparked an energy crisis deemed worse...
PAICE has launched Expert Briefings, a bespoke service led by Lars Christensen that delivers interactive sessions on macroeconomics, geopolitics, and artificial intelligence. The briefings are tailored to each organization’s industry, risk exposure, and strategic questions, and can be delivered as...
The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady at a 3% year‑over‑year increase in February, unchanged from January. Monthly inflation also remained at 0.4%, mirroring the same pace recorded a year earlier. Clothing prices were the primary upward force, while...
UK inflation held at 3% in February 2026, matching expectations and marking the lowest level since March 2025. While the headline rate was unchanged, clothing and footwear prices rose 0.9% and housing costs ticked up to 4.6%, indicating emerging retail...
Greek central banker Yannis Stournaras reflected on a decade after Greece’s debt crisis, highlighting how fiscal consolidation, debt restructuring and deep structural reforms restored macro‑economic stability and turned a primary deficit into a surplus. He noted that the banking sector’s...
The Bank of Papua New Guinea presented its March 2026 outlook, projecting GDP growth of about 3% after a strong 5.3% expansion in 2025 and forecasting headline inflation near 4% despite a fresh Middle‑East energy shock. The Monetary Policy Committee kept...
India’s merchandise and services exports rose 5.26% year‑over‑year to $714.73 billion in April‑January FY 2025‑26, extending a 6.9% compound annual growth rate since 2021. The surge reflects a blend of traditional strengths and technology‑driven sectors, underpinned by the Foreign Trade Policy 2023...
At the fifth joint conference of Banca d'Italia, Bocconi University, EIEF and CEPR, Chiara Scotti highlighted how the 2023 banking turmoil exposed stark differences in deposit dynamics across institutions. She argued that digitalization and the rise of non‑bank intermediaries have...
Finance is emerging as the core instrument of modern economic statecraft, linking public priorities with private capital to shape critical sectors such as defense, infrastructure, manufacturing, and AI. The generative‑AI boom highlights how massive, capital‑intensive projects—like a one‑gigawatt data center...
Israel launched a missile strike on Tehran while President Trump announced that the United States is negotiating a cease‑fire with Iran. The news sent crude oil prices plunging more than 6%, before partially recovering on doubts about the report’s veracity....
Indian steel producers are preparing for another price increase as U.S. attacks on Iran lift coking coal, ferro‑alloy and shipping costs. Domestic hot‑rolled coil prices have risen 23 percent to roughly $650‑$700 per tonne, up from about $566 a month earlier....
The Australia‑EU free trade agreement eliminates tariffs on key grains – wheat, barley and wheat starch – saving up to $166‑$392 per tonne, and grants a $70 million duty‑free wheat‑gluten quota. Canola oil, machinery and chemicals also become tariff‑free, while ethanol...
Oil prices plunged about 5% on Wednesday as optimism grew that a US‑Iran cease‑fire could be negotiated, pushing Brent crude below $100 per barrel and WTI to $88.31. The decline follows a recent peak near $119, but ongoing strikes and...
Food inflation in February 2026 shows a fragmented pattern, with red meat prices driving overall increases while fresh produce prices decline. Beef rose 7.9% year‑over‑year and lamb/goat 6.8%, whereas vegetables, fruit and eggs fell 1‑2% annually. Monthly data reveal a...
Trump Iran talks revived Strait of Hormuz oil flow fears and pushed global energy prices higher. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/trump-iran-talks-put-strait-of-hormuz.html
Saudi oil exports from its Western ports on the Red Sea represented the most immediate and largest mitigation of the Hormuz crisis. Logically, any oil transported via pipelines from east to west and loaded at the Red Sea ports must be...
Australia’s February 2026 CPI rose 3.7% year‑over‑year, a modest dip from January’s 3.8%. The headline increase was driven primarily by a 7.2% surge in housing costs, while food and non‑alcoholic beverages rose 3.1% and recreation and culture climbed 4.1%. A...
The markets now think the ECB and BOE will now hike rates by at least 50bps apiece, and the RBA will hike by at least another 50bps on top of the 50bps they've done already. The PMI data says otherwise....
And Trump just explained why there’s virtually no commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz right now. The Lincoln is ~600 miles off Iran’s coast. That gives it several minutes of warning time, plus an entire air wing, three destroyers, a...
The U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have choked the Strait of Hormuz, causing severe port congestion that left more than 500 Japanese‑exported cars idle at sea before finally off‑loading in Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port ten days late. Japanese firm...
SPR releases are a rounding error against a 10–17 mb/d disruption, says @ericnuttall Paper oil is still pretending everything’s fine. Even if this ends tomorrow, you’re left with a $10+ security premium Damaged infrastructure takes years, not weeks to recover This is a...
Mostly green arrows around the World as Israel says there’s growing talks for a 30 Day Ceasefire. Europe and Asia broadly higher $spx futures +62. We’ll see if early strength builds or fades. $spy pivot resistance $662...
Indian markets kicked off strong on Wednesday as the Gift Nifty rose to 23,170, roughly 100 points higher at the open. The rally was spurred by President Donald Trump’s remarks suggesting imminent US‑Iran negotiations, which buoyed global risk appetite. Crude...
Nations race to secure enough fertilizer and prevent a food crisis https://t.co/XNG35EquM6 via @parija_pratik @ilenapeng @ElThorn22 https://t.co/6wfySPHkym
My take on @AJEnglish on how the US-Israeli war has backfired and is benefiting Iran: “Iran is getting more oil out, they’re selling it at higher prices, and at lower discounts than prior to the US-Israeli attacks.” https://t.co/ySeIcR0lFS
Treasurer Jim Chalmers addressed Australia’s latest inflation data, noting that headline CPI eased to a 3.7% annual rate in February while underlying inflation slipped to 3.3%. The figures suggest price pressures are moderating after a brief pause before the Iran‑Israel...
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Foreign visitor arrivals dropped 2.1% y/y in February. Turkey’s tourism sector is paying the price for the US-Israeli attack on Iran. TURKEY’S TOURIST OPERATORS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/HORq6jRes2
#IndiaWatch 🇮🇳: As the Iranian war drags on, India takes an economic hit. Eighty percent of Indian gas imports, forty percent of Indian oil imports, and forty percent of India’s remittances depend on the Gulf. MODI SHOULD SEND TRUMP AND NETANYAHU A...
Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for a U.S. recession in 2026 to a 30% probability, up from 25%, citing a confluence of geopolitical tension, higher oil prices and waning fiscal support. The revised outlook is prompting corporations to tighten budgets...
This is why there is so much focus on gas demand destruction 👇 Importers (particularly those in emerging Asia) will need to take less LNG to free-up more for Europe and other richer nations the longer Hormuz/Qatar is shut
OPEC+ crude supply in March will be the lowest since the major production cuts during COVID lockdown in 2020.
A report claims former President Donald Trump sent Iran a 15‑point peace proposal, though the full text remains undisclosed. The outlined items call for decommissioning key nuclear facilities, regulating enriched uranium stockpiles, ending Iran’s ballistic missile program, and halting support...
Global composite activity PMIs for March universality dropped for the latest month's activity. Australia took the biggest hit. Japan and US still holding up the best relatively speaking. Overall, the US-Iran conflict's energy crisis is spilling over https://t.co/viZdRPVFN9
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST CURRENCY. The won has depreciated by 61% against the USD over the past year. THE COLLAPSE OF THE WON IS THE WORLD’S MOST UNREPORTED CURRENCY STORY. https://t.co/WiB50eaMz6
Eurozone private‑sector activity slipped to a ten‑month low in March, with the flash composite output index dropping to 50.5, below expectations. At the same time, input‑cost inflation accelerated to its strongest level in over three years, underscoring weakening domestic demand...
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 634.0%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 160.7%/yr 🇮🇷Iran — 67.0%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 55.3%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 48.9%/yr https://t.co/mNBJPXLGIg
This will be nothing like VZ @HayekAndKeynes Iran is the most powerful country in the world right now. It controls the blood supply of the global economy. It's wildest dream wan't half this good It couldn't give a shit about its own people...
Fresh projections put Africa’s economy on a 4.3% expansion path in 2026, with East Africa hitting 5.8%, outpacing most developed markets. The surge is being throttled by chronic power‑infrastructure deficits that cost the continent billions each year.
Gas prices in China jumped 20% since the war in Iran began. This is big. It affects 300 million drivers. CHAIRMAN XI SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/5AEwfc2iWb
1/5 This new paper by the Fed concludes that China's export success stems from weak domestic demand "rooted in structural features of China's economy and financial system—particularly those that constrain household consumption." https://t.co/jplDeN5d6g
The Boao Forum for Asia released a report projecting a 4.5% expansion of the Asian economy in 2026, keeping the continent as the world’s primary growth engine. The outlook, unveiled at the annual Hainan summit, is expected to steer investment...
42k US home purchases were canceled in February which equates to 13.7% of all homes under contract. That's the highest cancellation percentage for any February on record. https://t.co/QuxiWyB3TE
What Trump and the IEA Missed About the Oil Market: Relief Does Not Work When Markets Are in Panic Mode Daily Energy Report https://t.co/9c26JYBjru
Slovenia became the first EU member to impose fuel purchase limits after the Strait of Hormuz blockage triggered long lines and shortages. Private motorists can buy up to 50 liters a day, while companies are capped at 200 liters, with the army...
Both sides want a deal Washington wants Iran to give up the things that define it Iran wants relief without giving up those things NO DEAL IS POSSIBLE on these terms. #Iran #Trump #Hormuz #Geopolitics #Diplomacy #MiddleEast #War #Strategy #Oil #IRGC https://t.co/cfX0dD9IzF
At CERAWeek in Houston, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, TotalEnergies chief Patrick Pouyanne and NNPC GCEO Bashir Ojulari warned that the Iran‑Israel war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are creating unprecedented volatility for oil and gas markets. Their...
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $69 bn of two‑year notes on March 24, posting a high yield of 3.936% and a bid‑to‑cover ratio of 2.44, well under the ten‑auction average of 2.62. The soft demand underscores growing investor caution amid rising yields...
A blast was reported at a Texas oil refinery, though details remain scarce. The incident comes as crude oil prices slipped on easing US‑Iran tensions, while India's coal consultancy CMPDI struggled to attract investors and turmeric prices fell sharply amid...
Australia’s strategic fuel reserves have dwindled to roughly 30 days of petrol, diesel and aviation fuel, far short of the International Energy Agency’s 90‑day benchmark. About 90 % of the nation’s refined fuels are now imported, exposing the country to supply...
