Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
The Bank of Ghana reduced its policy rate from 15.5% to 14% and said the move is part of a dual‑track monetary framework that balances cheaper credit with aggressive liquidity absorption. The central bank absorbed about GH₵17 bn in excess liquidity in 2025 as the cedi continued to weaken under external oil‑price pressures.
HSBC's flash PMI shows India's private sector output index fell to 56.5 in March, the lowest level since October 2022. The slowdown is tied to the Middle East war, rising input costs and weaker domestic demand, raising concerns for investors...
Kevin Fox provides a terrific summary of GDP-B, a new way of measuring economic well-being
The White House is (truly) winning the oil jawboning battle against Tehran — still to be seen if Trump would win the physical oil market war. But to see Brent trading at sub-$100 a barrel (and WTI below $90) after...
UBS chief strategist Bhanu Baweja warns that the escalating Middle East conflict could generate an oil supply shock far larger than the Russia‑Ukraine war, a risk markets are currently under‑estimating. He argues investors are applying a short‑shock mindset, overlooking the...
War-driven market volatility creates both risk and opportunity. The Russia‑Ukraine conflict shaved roughly 1 % of global GDP—about $1.5 trillion—and sparked energy price spikes, while current Middle‑East tensions are pushing oil higher and inflating commodity prices. Historical data show equities rebound, delivering...
The Australian dollar remains pinned around US$0.70 as the US Dollar Index eases amid peace‑rumor optimism. Safe‑haven demand for the Japanese yen is pressuring regional currencies, leaving the AUD in a narrow range. Commodity markets are volatile: gold prices have...
Tariffs raise prices now and gamble on benefits later—if they come at all. Meanwhile, retaliation and supply chain shifts hurt U.S. businesses. That’s not a clear “benefit.” And corporations don’t price based on taxes alone—they price based on what they...
The March 2026 US Treasury 2-year yield hit 3.93%, up sharply from 3.45% last month. This is the highest yield since May 2025. TRUMP’S TARIFF WAR AND WAR ON IRAN ARE RATTLING BOND MARKETS. https://t.co/TfJWZRALwu
Former NSW Senior Trade and Investment Commissioner Mike Newman argued on John Anderson’s podcast that Australia’s public‑service workforce is oversized relative to other advanced economies. He cited figures showing roughly 2.6 million bureaucrats costing about $250 billion Australian dollars (≈ $165 billion USD) each...
Markets are jumping from one Iran war headline to the next, but look through the noise and this trade seems to be hiding in plain sight. #IranWar #Macro #Dollar #Trading #Markets https://t.co/iAgNNxmpff
Europe will soon face the same kind of fuel supply disruptions as Asia due to the war in Iran, says Shell’s CEO 🇪🇺 ⚠️ “If you look through the slate, jet fuel is already being impacted. Diesel will be next...
Australia’s economy entered a downturn before the Middle East conflict erupted, with household spending contracting in February for the first time in years. The Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Indicator flagged the decline, breaking a long‑standing growth pattern. While the war...
This morning, the US BLS released nonfarm productivity data for Q4 2025. Q4 2025 growth was revised down to 1.8%, from 2.8%, and well below the 5.2% surge in Q3. FULL-YEAR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH SLOWED TO 2.1% IN 2025, DOWN FROM 3.0% IN...
Dozens of hedge‑fund and oil‑company executives gathered in Caracas this week, marking one of the largest investor delegations to Venezuela in years. The meetings, organized by U.S. consultant Signum Global Advisors, follow a U.S. policy shift that is easing sanctions...
Oil prices jumped higher on Tuesday before slipping in after‑hours trading, reflecting the market’s reaction to fresh reports of potential US‑Iran talks aimed at ending the Middle East conflict. The price swing underscores how quickly crude markets respond to geopolitical...
Global Energy Shocks Explained by Top Economist Prof Severin Borenstein, UCBerkeley, about how a deeply integrated global energy system is being disrupted by the Iran war. #IranWar https://youtu.be/nB4mn1FG644
You know what I would tell people on the street? To keep calm and remain optimistic. You have to keep in mind that EVERY NATION has stake in the game, whether it’s the Middle East, the US, China, Japan, it...
Gary Liu and Liu Xiaochun argue that stablecoins will become the backbone of cross‑border payments and remittances, eliminating high fees and slow settlement. They foresee AI agents executing billions of decisions daily, using stablecoins for instant settlement. The U.S. Genius...
The Middle East is on a KNIFE'S EDGE 🔪 Ceasefire talks. Marines steaming toward Hormuz. Saudis sharpening their knives. Oil dumping on every headline 🛢️💥 Markets are an absolute WARZONE right now But here's the cold hard truth... CHAOS = EDGE for those who...
Iran is testing a selective passage strategy in the Strait of Hormuz, allowing only certain vessels to transit the waterway. Analysts describe the approach as a calibrated tactic that balances political leverage with economic self‑preservation. By targeting specific ships, Tehran...
Oil executives warn that the ongoing war in Iran is severely disrupting crude and refined product flows, creating a global supply crunch. The resulting shortages are driving price spikes that are eroding demand across industrial and consumer sectors. Analysts anticipate...
This morning on @asharqbusiness discussing inflation, ECB rate hikes, buying the dip on gold and other macroeconomic data. 📊
trump wants a win in iran. one option? take the oil infrastructure and hold it. that would be a massive escalation. @gzeromedia
Bloomberg’s Big Take podcast examines Cuba’s deepening crisis as the island grapples with widespread power outages and a tightening U.S. oil embargo. Former President Donald Trump signaled a willingness to “take” Cuba, raising speculation about a possible regime shift. Reporters...
After hours risk markets are "popping" higher on this story. No word on if this includes opening the Strait of Hormuz (or they agree to keep it closed and stop shooting.) Channel 12s source is the Israeli Government, suggesting they are...
We go to war and end up getting embargoed by Iran, which is now charging protection fees for oil tankers to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That's nuts. If Iran can embargo us with a couple of drones, we...
Canada’s top banking regulator warned that escalating economic and geopolitical turmoil is adding systemic risk, but affirmed the country’s banks remain resilient compared with global peers. He highlighted that roughly 2.1 million mortgages will need renewal over the next two years,...
Seems highly irrational for Iran to open the Strait during a ceasefire and forego all negotiating leverage. In that case, Trump would just aim for an indefinite ceasefire. And for that to even get off the ground Iran would need...
More than 60 agricultural organizations, including USA Rice, the National Corn Growers Association and the American Soybean Association, have asked the U.S. Department of Commerce to lift countervailing duties on phosphate fertilizer imported from Morocco and Russia. The groups argue...
Revelio Labs data shows more U.S. tech workers moving to Europe than the reverse, but the shift isn’t driven by geography alone. Remote‑first policies and global R&D footprints have flattened opportunities, while cost‑of‑living adjustments diminish the Bay Area’s salary edge....
U.S. equity markets slipped on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones down 84 points (0.2%), the Nasdaq falling 185 points (0.8%) and the S&P 500 dropping 0.4% to 6,556.37. The retreat followed President Trump’s optimistic remarks on Iran‑U.S. talks, which initially...
Stocks slipped amid renewed oil‑price pressure as the Strait of Hormuz remained blocked, pushing WTI crude to $91.66 a barrel and Brent above $103. Energy‑heavy sectors rallied while the S&P 500 fell 0.4 percent, reflecting a near‑100 % intraday correlation between oil and...
U.S. policymakers are urging the creation of a strategic reserve for critical minerals used in weapons, electric vehicles and electronics, but details of the plan were not disclosed. The move comes as Middle‑East conflict spikes oil prices and fuels concerns...
I've been describing the Hormuz crisis as a detonation in spacetime. It hit spot crude markets in the Middle East and refined products markets in Asia first. Then the shockwave travels further through time down the delivery curve, and out geographically toward...
Consider the source, etc, but the official line from Russian govt is that O&G revenue windfall will go straight into rebuilding the (depleted) national welfare fund. And longer-term plan is to reduce role of O&G revenues in day-to-day spending. https://t.co/5QfNPsBYtV
Henry Ong revisits the Kondratieff long‑wave theory, warning that the Philippines may be entering the “winter” phase of the multi‑decade cycle. He highlights that corporate debt relative to market value has climbed from about 12% in 2007 to roughly 51%...
No judgment. We’re all dealing with the Iran War oil market in our own way.
The day the war started (Feb 28), Fed fund futures were pricing in 2.5 rate Fed CUTS for 2026. Now they are pricing in 0.2 of a Fed rate HIKE for the rest of the year. https://t.co/kZikoSqzqz
The Asian Development Bank announced a rapid assistance package for its developing member countries to cushion the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict. The plan combines fast‑disbursing budget support through its Counter‑cyclical Support Facility and a Trade and Supply...
The Telegraph reports Iran does not want to negotiate with Witkoff and Kushner, they prefer JD Vance. https://t.co/EM6pghSciP
Tick chart starting Friday afternoon. 10-year yield (white) Nearby WTI crude oil futures (blue) In a crisis, all correlations go to 1. https://t.co/0ubKfHkt9Q
An Imperial Redux draws a parallel between the 1956 Suez Crisis and a 2026 US‑Israel military strike on Iran. The blog argues that, like Britain and France, the United States and Israel pursued an independent foreign policy without NATO support,...
The Times of Israel reports US administration working on a monthlong ceasefire period to negotiate a 15-point agreement. https://t.co/E2EyihE4Gt
As a result of the US-Israeli war in Iran, ALUMINUM prices are UP 12-40% THROUGHOUT THE WORLD. The world’s biggest carmakers are reportedly “panic buying.” CARMAKERS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/yRInvBpEdm
In this Bulwark Podcast episode, host Tim Miller chats with Atlantic editor‑in‑chief Joe Weisenthal and journalist Jeffrey Goldberg about the economic fallout of the Iran‑Israel conflict and the broader implications for U.S. defense policy. They dissect the controversial Signal‑chat scandal...
Three big picture observations about the oil surplus (petrodollars/ petroeuros/ petroequities are all downstream of this) pre Hormuz A) The oil surplus is modest relative to the surplus in Asia. Chinese state banks and offshore deposits of Chinese exporters are...
$5+ Diesel Could Unleash Inflationary Mindset the Fed Better Not “Look Through.” Inflation Was already Hot before Iran War. When this inflationary mindset takes off, inflation becomes like a runaway train https://t.co/51qim5kPk6 https://t.co/cBfjwNFSno
With the Persian Gulf effectively offline, losing Russian oil would be devastating to the global markets. Drone warfare continues to evolve and reshape the way these conflicts unfold, especially when targeting energy infrastructure. #crude #russiaukrainewar #geopolitics https://t.co/L5OoXtN7DJ
The trouble with looking at the current Hormuz crisis through the lens of which countries have historically imported the volumes is that all of these countries will now be rabidly bidding for all the other barrels. A barrel of oil lost...
