Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
GT Thompson Discusses USMCA Reauthorization, Says Dairy Adjustments Needed
House Agriculture Committee Chairman GT Thompson urged Congress to reauthorize the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement, emphasizing its benefits for American farmers and ranchers. He highlighted the upcoming summer review as a chance to address lingering issues, especially Canada’s dairy supply‑management system. Thompson warned against treating trade deals as static, calling for active oversight throughout the agreement’s life. He confirmed close coordination with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on the reauthorization process.
Geopolitics Is Rewriting Memory Sourcing
Geopolitical tension, especially between the United States and China, is fragmenting the global memory supply chain, creating a two‑speed market where advanced DRAM and HBM are routed to politically aligned regions while legacy memory circulates more broadly. OEMs must now...
US and Iran Could Resume Talks Next Week -- Report
The Wall Street Journal reports that U.S. and Iran may restart diplomatic talks as early as next week, aiming to draft a 14‑point memorandum of understanding that would frame a month‑long negotiation period. Iran remains opposed to any transfer of...
Toyota And Honda See Sharp Declines In Profit Amidst Iran War Pressures, Spiking EV Costs
Toyota warned that operating income for the fiscal year ending March 2027 will fall to ¥3 trillion (about $20 billion), well under analyst forecasts of ¥4.6 trillion and last year’s ¥3.8 trillion. The Iran‑related supply‑chain shock is inflating aluminum, resin and shipping costs, shaving...
Kevin Warsh Is Right About Fed Reform — but His Inflation Solution Is a T...
Kevin Warsh, the Fed chair nominee, argues that a coming AI‑driven productivity boom will act as a disinflationary force and give the Federal Reserve room to cut rates. He couples this view with a broader reform agenda that includes balance‑sheet...
AI Capex Doesn't Care About the Strait Today. Mid 2027 Is a Different Story
The blog argues that the ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade and the resulting oil‑price shock are not curbing today’s AI‑related capital expenditures. While the Nasdaq hits record highs and consumer spending tightens, AI compute demand remains strong. However, the author...
The Federal Reserve Is Quickly Running Out of Reasons to Cut Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve’s window for cutting rates is narrowing as recent data show a steadier labor market but persistent inflation. April’s payrolls rose by 115,000, a modest gain that eases pressure for easing, while the March CPI held at 3.3%,...
April 2026 Jobs Report: Labor Market Shows Signs of Stabilization
The April 2026 jobs report shows the U.S. labor market stabilizing. Employers added 115,000 nonfarm jobs, well above the 55‑70k forecast, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Real wages rose 3.6% year‑over‑year, outpacing inflation. The data gives the...
Manufacturing Retains Growth Pace in Q4 Despite Cost Pressures: Ficci
India’s manufacturing sector kept expanding in Q4 FY 26, with 93% of surveyed firms reporting stable or higher output despite rising input costs. Domestic demand remained robust, as 89% expected orders to stay flat or grow, while capacity utilisation slipped to...
Four Corners: May 11
The Australian program Four Corners will broadcast a two‑part documentary, "Clash of the Superpowers," on May 11, offering a rare look inside private U.S.–China negotiations that sparked a decade‑long trade war. The series, directed by veteran filmmaker Norma Percy, draws on...
WTI Crude Oil Settles up 61 Cents to $95.42 per Barrel
WTI crude oil settled at $95.42 per barrel, up 61 cents, as the market absorbed ongoing Iran‑U.S. tensions. December WTI futures rose $1.50 to $79.85, narrowing the gap with near‑term contracts and signaling a bullish term structure. Traders are pricing...
Oil Prices Rise As US-Iran Fighting Continues
Brent crude jumped to $101.47 a barrel and WTI to $95.71 after the United States and Iran exchanged air strikes, reigniting fears over the Strait of Hormuz and the cease‑fire. Traders priced in potential supply disruptions, pushing prices up as...
Two Fronts, One War: Why Ukraine and Iran Are Part of the Same Fight
In an opinion piece from the Kyiv Security Forum, the author argues that the United States must treat its 2026 military operation against Iran—dubbed “Epic Fury”—as part of the same strategic contest as its support for Ukraine. He contends that Moscow...
World’s Best Banks 2026: Western Europe
Western European banks proved resilient in 2025 despite the ECB’s rate‑easing cycle, with the sector’s aggregate CET1 ratio climbing to 16.1% and ROE stabilising around 10%. Margin pressure prompted a shift toward fee‑based income, M&A activity and fintech acquisitions to...
Oman Ports Provide Lifeline to Indian Exporters, GCC Nations
Oman’s Sohar and Salalah ports are becoming critical corridors for Indian food exports to the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz disrupt traditional shipping lanes. The ports feature dedicated agricultural terminals, deep‑sea capacity...
Boat Sales Signal Economy’s Health—Decline Warns Trouble
I think one of the best economic indicators isn’t real estate, it’s boat sales. Boats are the ultimate disposable income purchase. Generally speaking, they only sell in an economy where people are doing very well and have a very optimistic outlook...
Setback Targets Global Tariff, Not US‑China Talks
Will push back a bit against Dr. Prasad's take here, and the NYT headline framing the "122" decision as a set back for the US in the negotiations with China. The actual set back is to any attempt to generate a...
Disrupted Middle East-India Shipments Restart as Choked Supply Chains Ease
Container traffic between India and the Middle East is rebounding as alternative Gulf ports reopen after the war‑induced bottlenecks. Khor Fakkan and Fujairah in the UAE and Sohar in Oman have lifted import‑only restrictions, allowing vessels to resume full outbound freight...
Court of International Trade Court Strikes Down White House Section 122 Tariffs
The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled 2‑1 that the White House’s 10% Section 122 tariffs are unlawful because the statute only covers true balance‑of‑payments emergencies, not routine trade deficits. The decision follows a Supreme Court loss on the IEEPA‑based global...
Russia's Machine and Tool Production Growing Fast on Innovation Forced by Sanctions
Russia’s machine‑tool sector is experiencing a rapid resurgence as sanctions force domestic innovation. Domestic manufacturers now hold roughly 34% of the market, up from 12‑15% five years ago, and the industry is expanding at an estimated 30‑40% per year. State‑backed...
Iran May Have a Higher Tolerance for Economic Pain—But the Pain Is Excruciating as Regime Reveals 100% Inflation in Just...
Iran’s economy is buckling under war‑driven sanctions, with inflation spiking to over 100% on some goods in a single week and annual inflation reaching 67% by mid‑April. The rial plunged to a historic low of 1.8 million per U.S. dollar, eroding...
Next Week’s Menu: May 9-15, 2026
Larry Greenberg’s weekly menu outlines a dense slate of economic releases for May 9‑15, 2026, covering U.S. indicators such as producer prices, retail sales, and industrial production, alongside key data from China, Japan, the Eurozone, and emerging markets. The calendar also notes...
Global FX: Yentervention and Other FX Policy Stories
In this episode, Arindam Sandhile and his global team dissect the current FX landscape, focusing on Japan's recent yen intervention, the limited upside for the dollar amid uncertain Fed policy, and the performance of real‑rate currencies like the Norwegian krone...
Why an Australia-US Rare Earth Deal Sparked Backlash in Malaysia
A coalition of 57 Malaysian civil‑society groups has condemned a $96 million rare‑earths supply agreement between Australia’s Lynas Corporation and the U.S. Department of Defense, arguing it ties Malaysia’s processing plant to foreign military supply chains. The backlash highlights Malaysia’s precarious...
The CEO of Maersk, Which Ships 14% of Everything You Buy, Said the Iran War Is Adding $500 Million in...
Maersk’s CEO Vincent Clerc warned that the ongoing Iran war is adding about $500 million in extra energy costs each month and has left six of the company’s vessels stranded in the Gulf. The conflict has kept the Strait of Hormuz...
India Seeks Early Resolution of Issues Related to Implementation of EFTA Trade Pact
India has called for an early resolution of implementation issues under the India‑EFTA Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement, which entered force in October 2025. Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal highlighted the need during a May 6‑7 visit to Switzerland, meeting Swiss State Secretary Helene Budlige Artieda...
Higher‑base Inflation Risk Echoes 1970s Oil Shock
If this left tail manifests, it would happen at the worst time from an inflation perspective. Since the 9% COVID spike in 2022, the inflation rate has settled down to 3%. That’s better than 9% but it’s not the Fed’s...
Trump’s Feud With Germany’s Merz Puts EU Trade Deal on Edge
Donald Trump’s personal feud with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is jeopardizing the EU‑U.S. trade deal, as the president threatens a 25% tariff on European autos unless his grievances are addressed. European officials are racing to meet Trump’s July 4 deadline to avoid...
Why Didn’t Other Countries Copy Trump’s Tariffs?
In 2025 President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs that sent the US tariff index soaring, sparking fears of a global protectionist wave. Data from the IMF Tariff Tracker shows that, apart from China, no other major economy raised tariffs at the...
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Record Low (Since 1952)
The University of Michigan’s preliminary May 2026 Consumer Sentiment Index fell to its lowest level since 1952, slipping below the 50‑point recession threshold. The decline follows a three‑year period of volatility heightened by geopolitical events and domestic political uncertainty. Compared...
Robust Job Growth Fuels Fed Hawks, Delays Rate Cuts
The Civil War with the Fed just got more interesting as the year-to-date job growth will give the Fed hawks more ammunition not to cut rates. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #housing #labor #economics #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Tariffs and War Drive US Sentiment to Record Low
The University of Michigan's consumer-sentiment index dropped to an ALL-TIME LOW. TRUMP'S TARIFFS & WAR MADNESS = CRUSHES AMERICAN SENTIMENT. https://t.co/DHKLYvmp7D
Packaging, Materials Groups Testify in Section 301 Tariff Probe
Packaging and materials groups testified before the U.S. Trade Representative in a new Section 301 investigation covering 16 countries. Representatives from the Can Manufacturers Institute, Aluminum Association, American Forest & Paper Association, Association of Plastic Recyclers and American Chemistry Council warned...
Stagflation Tension Highlights Fed’s Policy Dilemma
The Weekly Quill — The Tug-of-War Between Stag & -Flation - QI Research https://t.co/7NazYjc7Ln #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy https://t.co/4wmSodUNiO
Rate Hikes Spark Political Jabs Across Fed Generations
When Greenspan came in, he immediately hiked rates. Volcker phoned him and jokingly called him a "traitor". He was supposed to be friendly to the administration. It would be funny if Warsh was forced to hike and Powell pulled the...
ECB's Nagel: ECB Will Do Whatever Necessary to Him He Energy Price Surge
ECB Deputy Governor Peter Nagel warned that the central bank is prepared to act decisively to curb a fresh surge in energy prices, which he said could reignite inflation risks across the eurozone. He emphasized that the ECB remains highly alert...
U.S. Adds 55k Jobs Monthly, Strongest Six‑month Streak Since 2025
55k US jobs per month were added over the last 6 months, the strongest 6-month growth rate since May 2025. https://t.co/nDPoQrhKtq
Trump Calls for Three-Day Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire
#Trump: THREE DAY CEASEFIRE (May 9th, 10th, and 11th) in the War between Russia and Ukraine. https://t.co/sjLhXAK2F3
Argentina Is the IMF Biggest Debtor Followed by Ukraine
Argentina remains the IMF’s largest debtor, with $60.2 bn owed—about 8.7% of its GDP. Ukraine follows with $15.5 bn, representing 6.9% of its GDP, reflecting wartime financing needs. Other emerging economies such as Egypt, Pakistan and Ecuador each carry roughly $10 bn in...
Half of Fed Forecasters Now Expect No Rate Cuts This Year
More sell-side firms and Fed watchers are removing/delaying cuts from their outlook, including a couple forecasters after the April NFP. Half now see no cuts this year (and risks are clearly tilted to this group continuing to grow given inertial...
Debt Service Ratio, Not Total Debt, Drives Markets
Eichengreen rightfully points out that total debt is far less relevant than debt service ratio. Large balances make for good headlines, but don't correlate with markets. @B_Eichengreen @HooverInst
Inflation Swaps Slip as Earnings Surge Revives Market Euphoria
Inflation‑linked swap rates moved lower on Wednesday while equity markets surged on robust earnings and softer inflation expectations after US‑Iran news. The shift signals renewed risk appetite and could alter hedging demand ahead of the U.S. payrolls report.
Stocks Hit Record Highs Despite Macro Fatigue
What's does the global macro horizon look like over the coming week? Record High Stocks Amid Extreme Headline Fatigue https://t.co/AoxA22S38v https://t.co/L2MqLnfrdM
Low VIX Signals Calm Amid Market Panic
Investor: "OMG what's happening in the Middle East? Are interest rates back up? What about crude oil? Wait the jobs number came in strong, what now?!?" $VIX: "Dude. Just chill out." $VIX < 20 = "Please disperse, there's nothing to see here."...
Asia’s Heat Waves and Oil Shock Push Inflation to Multi‑Year Peaks
Heat waves linked to El Niño and a lingering oil price shock have driven inflation to multi‑year highs across emerging Asian economies. The Philippines and Pakistan saw consumer price inflation climb above 7% and 11% respectively, intensifying pressure on central banks...
Dollar's Reserve Role Erodes as Allies Shift Amid NATO Tensions
'US dollar as reserve currency has been in long-term decline. Lists a long list of contributing factors, notably also states that if history is any guide, countries keep reserves with allies, and NATO tensions may negative impact Treasury holdings.' @B_Eichengreen...
Analyzing Oil Market Shock After Hormuz Closure
With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz now into its 3rd month, I sat down for a wide-ranging discussion with @ProfGMarkets on the reverberations from the largest disruption in history of oil markets, and where we go from here....
Korea, Taiwan Post Record Surpluses Amid Currency Weakness
The surpluses of Korea and Taiwan this year will be incredible The fact that these surpluses coincide with a historically weak Korean won and continued deep weakness in the Taiwan dollar is most interesting
US Stock Market Shows Bubble Signals, Yield Spread Confirms
My Bubble Detector says the US stock market is in bubble territory. So does the bond-stock yield spread. Buckle up. https://t.co/6ZhjdNX6mH
Latest US‑China Trade Data Signals Shifting Balance
Ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, my take on the most up-to-date US-China trade data 🤓 https://t.co/MAnUlGQUFl