Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑cheap yen fuels $435 billion carry‑trade, warns of tightening risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose policy has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a $435 billion carry‑trade between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could force borrowers to unwind yen‑denominated debt.
China’s State Administration for Market Regulation urged major exporters such as BYD and CATL to adopt healthier, fair‑competition practices as they expand abroad. The regulator highlighted the need to curb “involution‑style” competition that squeezes margins and forces costly overseas moves. It pledged tighter antitrust enforcement, clearer compliance guidance, and support for higher‑quality growth overseas. The call comes amid EU tariffs on Chinese EVs and growing anti‑subsidy investigations worldwide.
I'm quite nervous, and I spent 2 hours writing why you should be too. Consider: VIX has gone +60 twice in the last ~1.5 years. Once on a positioning debacle (Aug '24) and then again on the self-inflicted wound of April '25...
From March 24‑27, Boao’s Dongyu Island Cultural Park hosted the “Boao: Where the World Meets, Qionghai: Where Free Trade Thrives” city exhibition, the first showcase since Hainan Free Trade Port’s island‑wide customs launch. The event highlighted Qionghai’s role as a...
Gold has slumped 16% and silver 27% over the past month, despite heightened US‑Iran tensions. The drop stems from liquidity squeezes and waning expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which have lifted the dollar and real yields. Analysts note the...
One year after President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs took effect, small‑business owners report ongoing pain from $140 billion in duties ruled illegal by the Supreme Court. Refunds for those tariffs remain unpaid, while the administration has substituted new duties under sections...
Anthropic unintentionally revealed a new AI model dubbed “Claude Mythos,” which it describes as a step‑change in capability, while a federal judge blocked the Pentagon’s attempt to label the firm a national‑security threat. OpenAI’s ChatGPT ad pilot generated more than...
GfK's March Consumer Confidence Barometer shows UK confidence falling to minus 21, the lowest in months. The drop coincides with a 0.4% decline in February retail sales and rising energy costs, as Brent crude jumped 50% to $110 per barrel. Higher...
One-variable markets overwhelm classic market timing metrics like sentiment, technicals and valuation which are more useful in “normal” times. A composite of oil and rates (oil is driving rates too) tells you all you need to know about the direction...
Soybean's $12 Ceiling Alongside $120 Crude Oil - It may take some combination of WTI crude oil staying above $100 a barrel, a poor Brazilian crop and a Corn Belt drought for soybeans to stay above $12 a bushel. Alongside...
Caribbean governments are targeting digital infrastructure to diversify economies, with the Inter‑American Development Bank estimating a potential 12% GDP boost from improved connectivity. Mobile internet remains uneven, and analysts say roughly $1 billion is needed to achieve 5G parity by 2030,...
The UST 2s5s steepener has been my 'white whale' trade the past year, facing constant pressure from shifting macro drivers. It was first flattened by the AI disruption trade, then crushed by the surge in front-end yields following the outbreak...
The Middle East conflict, which intensified in early March 2026, has choked the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting oil flows and limiting the export of refined industrial inputs such as elemental sulphur, agricultural nitrates, and semiconductor‑grade helium. These constraints are generating...
Malaysia's Department of Statistics reported that Pahang's consumer price index rose to 2.1% year‑on‑year in February 2026, while Terengganu's inflation climbed to 1.6% year‑on‑year in January 2026. Both states saw price pressures in housing, utilities, and self‑care services, with Pahang...
In this episode, Charlene Young and Tom Sieber dissect how the ongoing Iran conflict is fueling oil price volatility and feeding into UK inflation pressures, while also reviewing the latest UK CPI data and government energy support plans. They highlight...
The European Parliament approved four conditional clauses—suspension, sunrise, sunset, and safeguards—within the Turnberry trade deal, giving the EU power to pause or revoke US tariff benefits if Washington fails to meet its commitments. The clauses could instantly raise tariffs on...
India’s agricultural exports to West Asia, encompassing the GCC and neighboring countries, reached $10.68 billion in FY 2024‑25, representing 20.5% of total agri shipments. Processed‑food shipments to the Gulf grew 18% year‑on‑year, while exports to the EU rose 49.5% over the...
Cross‑border payments are undergoing a fundamental shift as fintech innovators replace legacy banking corridors with real‑time, low‑cost networks. New infrastructure—blockchain ledgers, API‑driven platforms, and regulated e‑money licences—cuts settlement times from days to seconds. Traditional banks are partnering with or acquiring...
The Macro Butler is proposing a World Economic Summit for 2026, slated for December, to unite investors, macro strategists, and capital managers. After 28 years of navigating macro turbulence, the team seeks to create a signal‑focused forum that avoids noise...
Sri Lanka’s apparel exports slipped 6.91% in January‑February 2026, with the EU market leading the decline at 19.48%. Shipments to the US and UK fell more modestly, while regional peers such as Bangladesh experienced a 25.25% drop in EU shipments....
Russia’s banks were cut off from the SWIFT network in 2022, prompting the country to rely on its domestic messaging system, SPFS. While SPFS kept internal payments flowing and softened the immediate shock, it did not replicate SWIFT’s global reach,...
HSBC’s latest Emerging Markets Sentiment Survey shows optimism reaching a record high, with 68% of investors bullish on EM assets over the next three months, up from 63% previously. The survey recorded zero bearish responses, marking the 14th consecutive reading...
The European Union is revamping its customs code to tighten control over the flood of low‑cost fashion parcels entering the bloc. Under the new rules, online marketplaces such as Shein, Temu and AliExpress will be liable for customs duties, product...
Thailand’s baht is under renewed pressure as rising oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar converge. Tensions in the Middle East keep crude near $100‑$120 per barrel, inflating Thailand’s energy import bill and weakening the currency. Meanwhile, the two‑year U.S....
The Iran war with the United States and Israel has triggered a sharp risk‑off shift, prompting private‑credit managers such as Ares and Apollo to cap redemptions as investor cash‑out requests surge. Direct‑lending defaults are projected to climb from 5.6% to...
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio posted on X urging investors to develop a well‑tested, back‑tested game plan to steer through inflation fears, geopolitical tension and sharp market swings. He argues that a disciplined strategy reduces stress and improves decision‑making, offering a...
The United States and Indonesia signed a $33 billion trade agreement that eases U.S. access to Indonesia’s critical minerals and fossil‑fuel sectors. Activists and watchdogs label the pact ‘extractive colonialism,’ warning it could accelerate mining, weaken export controls and deepen environmental...
AirGas, an Air Liquide subsidiary, announced a force majeure on helium shipments on March 17, limiting deliveries to roughly 50% of normal volumes and tacking on a $13.50 per hundred cubic feet surcharge. The move follows QatarEnergy’s shutdown of LNG‑linked...
In the fourth installment of the Irregular Warfare Initiative’s series, experts Hamlet Yousef, Ioannis Koskinas and Tom Johansmeyer dissect how Iran’s conflict is being fought with economic levers such as energy disruption, maritime insecurity and financial resilience. The panel challenges common timelines and...
The Bloomberg Next Africa podcast warns that the war in Iran could trigger a farming crisis across the continent. Iran supplies a large share of the world’s nitrogen‑based fertilizers, and conflict threatens to choke off those exports. African growers, already...
Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines are accelerating nuclear power projects to meet soaring electricity needs of AI data centers, a shift driven by soaring oil prices from the Iran war. The region could contribute roughly 40 GW of new...
“Ukraine risks running out of money to pay for its defense against Russia within two months as a multitude of factors converge to threaten tens of billions of euros in assistance from the country’s key donors. Kyiv currently has only enough...
As the UK tax year closes on 5 April 2026, Finance Monthly outlines nine actions households can take to avoid losing thousands of pounds. With tax thresholds frozen, wages rising only nominally and inflation eroding real income, missed opportunities such as...
Bridgewater Associates' $92 billion Pure Alpha strategy posted a loss of under 1% for March, outpacing rivals that logged multi‑billion‑dollar declines amid an Iran‑driven oil price shock. The fund’s defensive positioning highlights a widening gap between macro hedge funds that were...
The U.S. dollar index climbed to 99.64, its biggest one‑day gain this week, after the Federal Reserve signaled a “higher‑for‑longer” policy stance and Middle‑East cease‑fire hopes faded. Rising oil prices above $100 a barrel and heightened safe‑haven demand drove the...
The OECD’s interim Economic Outlook warns that the Iran‑Israel war has erased a tentative 0.3‑percentage‑point upgrade to global GDP growth and pushed G20 inflation to 4% in 2026. The outlook flags higher energy prices, supply‑chain strain and heightened downside risks...
U.S. equity indices tumbled on March 26, with the S&P 500 down 1.7% and extending a five‑day losing streak. The slide was driven by escalating tensions over the U.S.–Iran standoff, a renewed pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, and...
South Korean banks increased their lending rates for the fourth consecutive month in February, extending a credit‑tightening cycle that is pressuring both retail borrowers and commercial firms. The move reflects growing concerns over slowing growth and rising household debt, even...
Reading this, all I can think is: what does it say about BoE “independence” if even considering its letter-writing model is deemed hyper controversial in the US? Moreover, I suspect a few former UK PMs would dispute the idea that...
We need to embargo Iranian oil to end this war. Biggest risk from that isn't catastrophically higher oil prices, but vulnerabilities in US financial markets due to the basis trade in the Treasury market and private credit. Those are our...
B of A: “.. If Trump’s credibility is “structurally hit by Iran, then ability to jaw-jaw Wall St & force [foreign direct investment] inflows falls ..” [Hartnett] https://t.co/QF657J7op6
From Liberation to other trade threats is the US with the EU. Now here comes China to the EU. Trade upheaval? Maritime? What lies ahead?
ECB’s Wunsch says rate hike likely if war isn’t over by June https://t.co/DfO5yOLNdf via @FerroTV @lisaabramowicz1 https://t.co/rkEFK0fHSo
Three scenarios for the Iran war and what they mean for Fed policy under new leadership. Plus eight key takeaways from the latest FOMC meeting. 🟢 Open https://t.co/Tx6udRxjvm
The Dollar and Oil are Bid: The dollar and oil remain firm. The market has a had muted reaction to President Trump’s announcement late yesterday that it will extend its pledge not to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure for ten days...
This is one of my favourite charts. It shows how the economy emerged from WW2 with a lot more worker power.. and then post-1979 neoliberalism crushed it. sorry folks, we aint gonna get another wage-price spiral https://t.co/KydXL5zIer
Gm, oil watchers Brent crude back above $110 this morning because—and stop me if you’ve heard this one—the Strait of Hormuz remains shut and the world oil market is losing 15 million barrels every day that remains true https://t.co/jg4V9IlWhv
Ahead of the weekend, amid the fog of war, risk appetites are restrained. Escalation to de-escalate? Is today the day the greenback pushes above $JPY160? PBOC sets $USD fix higher on weekly basis for the 1st time in...
The Effects of Higher Energy Prices CfM/NIESR survey: UK would experience greater negative effects than Euro Area: higher inflation & lower growth due to macro backdrop, fiscal/monetary policy responses & uncertainty over the conflict’s duration as reasons https://t.co/HG4SdveXNQ
China Initiates Probes Into U.S. Trade Practices—The Chinese commerce ministry said some U.S. trade measures may violate WTO rules and other economic and trade treaties @QinSherry https://t.co/f62n2UUsnP https://t.co/f62n2UUsnP
