Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran urged a substantial reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet, proposing a cut of $1‑$2 trillion to restore a more neutral monetary stance. He suggested easing liquidity‑coverage‑ratio rules, destigmatizing repo and discount‑window facilities, and allowing securities to mature rather than selling at a loss. Miran warned that a shift to scarce reserves would increase short‑term rate volatility and require active liquidity management. The proposal gains relevance as President Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh, who favors a smaller balance sheet, awaits Senate confirmation.
J.P. Morgan warns that recent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will trigger a cascading oil‑supply shock throughout April. The last tanker left the strait on Feb. 28, coinciding with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, and traffic has been largely...
Thailand has ended its blanket fuel subsidy, raising pump prices by 6 baht (about $0.16) per litre. Analysts say the move removes a key trigger for a sovereign credit downgrade, but it also heightens stagflation risks as inflation could reach 3.2%...
President Trump announced an additional ten‑day pause on attacks against Iran’s energy infrastructure after Thursday’s market close. U.S. equities tumbled, with the Nasdaq Composite falling more than 10% from its October 29 record high and entering correction territory. The S&P 500...
G‑7 foreign ministers gathered in France as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio prepares to steer the summit toward the Iran conflict, raising the prospect of diverting weapons earmarked for Ukraine. President Donald Trump’s criticism of NATO and push for...
four weeks in, iran continues to export oil through the strait of hormuz. 1.5 million barrels a day, at significantly higher prices than before the war.
In this episode, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. economist Michael Gapin and macro strategist Matthew Hornbach dissect the March FOMC meeting, noting the Fed’s decision to hold rates and retain an easing bias while pushing expected rate cuts from June/September to...
The escalating war in the Middle East has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Maersk to impose emergency surcharges and forcing reroutes that have lifted freight premiums by up to 800%. The shutdown is already curbing production in China,...
The Australian and New Zealand dollars edged toward key support zones after Brent crude plunged 6% to under $99 a barrel amid renewed Iran‑Israel hostilities. Energy‑price volatility and broader regional security worries are weighing on Asia‑Pacific currencies, setting the stage for...
China is on track to become the world’s largest economy by 2035, driven by rapid tech expansion and a 7% boost to its 2026 defence budget, while household consumption remains sluggish. The dual dynamic shapes global markets and raises questions...
Asian equity markets tumbled Thursday as Brent crude hovered around $100 a barrel and Tehran rejected a U.S. cease‑fire proposal. South Korea’s KOSPI slumped more than 3%, while Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng also posted declines, underscoring the...
Oil shocks don’t just drive up inflation. They also increase unemployment. In the context of an already weak labor market, GS estimates the Iran oil shock will increase the unemployment rate by 20-40 basis points by the end of the year. Source:...
Helios AI warns that if the Persian Gulf conflict ends tomorrow, global food prices could climb 12‑18% above pre‑crisis levels by the end of 2026 and rise further in early 2027. The startup’s model flags three sequential shocks: soaring fuel...
Canadian farmers face looming fertilizer shortages as the U.S.-Iran war chokes the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for phosphate and sulphur shipments. Canada imports over 2.6 million tonnes of phosphate annually, with roughly 80% coming via the United States, which...
South Korea’s new president Lee Jae‑myung slashed official development assistance by 24 % in the 2025 budget, abandoning former President Yoon Suk‑yeol’s pledge to double aid to Africa by 2030. The policy shift reflects a strategic pivot toward securing African minerals...
Former Vice President Al Gore appeared on Tim Miller’s Bulwark Podcast to condemn former President Donald Trump for dismissing two existential threats: Iran’s ability to choke the Strait of Hormuz and the escalating climate crisis. Gore highlighted that Iran now controls...
Iran has moved to close the Strait of Hormuz, a tactic long embedded in its defence doctrine, after U.S. President Donald Trump extended a deadline threatening to strike Iranian power plants. The closure throttles roughly 20% of global oil and...
The U.S. Maritime Administration issued a new advisory urging U.S.-flagged vessels transiting the Red Sea, Bab el‑Mandeb, Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea and Somali Basin to consider turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders. MARAD warns that Houthi militants...
The dollar is below 100 on the index, down nearly 5% over twelve months. Textbook says this boosts emerging markets. But emerging market ETFs are down sharply. The Kospi just fell 3% in a session. That correlation isn't working. Why? US Treasury...
The Chicago Fed Real-Time Unemployment Rate Forecast for March is 4.46%, up slightly from the BLS value for the previous month. https://t.co/fmDwn7KNXM https://t.co/DQnoKpB7NE
The episode examines how Donald Trump's threat of intensified strikes on Iran sparked a 5% jump in oil prices, pushing Brent above $100 per barrel and prompting a sell‑off in U.S. equities and a rise in bond yields. ANZ economists...
NEW: Vladimir Putin has asked oligarchs to donate to Russia’s budget in a bid to stabilise the country’s finances as he presses on with his invasion of Ukraine. The comments made it clear Putin won't back down despite strains on...
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has left 25% of US farmers UNABLE to secure fertilizer for the upcoming planting season. US FARMERS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU. https://t.co/IGb9NjwDiw
George Friedman argues China’s primary concern amid the Israel‑Iran war is preserving its access to the U.S. market, even as oil prices surge. Beijing’s restrained response reflects limited power projection and a strategic choice to avoid antagonising Washington, which supplies...
There is a macro arb here... The prediction market for 'US forces enter Iran by April 30th' (59%) and 'US-Iran Cease Fire by April 30th' (47%).. https://t.co/W305cB56pm
mexico just cut rates 25bps (split 3-2 vote) some DM central banks already getting outclassed by an EM
Gold has surged roughly 50% over the past year, dramatically outpacing the S&P 500’s 14.5% gain. The rally is driven by rising inflation, higher oil prices and heightened geopolitical risk, especially the Strait of Hormuz tension. Federal Reserve rate hikes...
Depressing. UK GDP per capita has been flat for two decades. Without growth, the welfare state is on borrowed time. We need to shrink the state and unleash enterprise. https://t.co/uatuXQg13e
Not a day to stay on the sidelines. Aside from gold: I welcome this pullback in Latin American stocks. Looks like a correction within the early innings of a structural bull market in emerging markets. https://t.co/PqNvdOT6AB https://t.co/nL6e7JkoCR
Oil prices jumped on March 26 as Brent crude rose 4.8% to $101.94 a barrel, driven by renewed doubts over the Iran‑U.S. cease‑fire talks and heightened tension in the Strait of Hormuz. The rally pushed the S&P 500 down 1.2%, the Dow...
Larry Fink, chairman and CEO of BlackRock, is urging policymakers to consider using America’s flagship safety-net program like a giant brokerage account — using borrowed money. https://t.co/cSg0rDZCTu
Potash and phosphate-based fertilizers remain mostly unaffected, but nitrogen-based fertilizers that rely on natural gas are the problem. Global urea and ammonia supplies are already being hit hard. #fertilizer #foodsupply #geopolitics https://t.co/LaLbS7VyH1
The United States continues to dominate key global pillars despite the waning of the so‑called “American Century.” Its dollar remains the world’s primary reserve currency and U.S. equities account for about half of global market capitalisation. The country leads high‑value...
Logan Mohtashami on the economics of war and its effect on housing https://t.co/23QO1ifkKU via @YouTube
FWIW - There's a noticeable difference in search trends today versus 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. While inflation searches are comparably elevating, there's nowhere near the concern about an economic slowdown today as there was then. https://t.co/QkWqRG0gXo
The Middle East conflict is inflating Hapag‑Lloyd’s operating costs by roughly $40 million to $50 million each week, according to CEO Rolf Habben Jansen. The surge stems primarily from higher bunker fuel prices, with insurance, container storage and inland transport also adding millions....
The US Labor Market Confounds with its Countercurrents. It May Be the New Normal Labor Market. The Fed has also struggled in dealing with this labor market https://t.co/5TJNIc4U16 https://t.co/JLm2HmsMRX
The US has been toying with the idea of a US oil export ban. This might briefly lower gasoline prices in the US, but it would drive up diesel and jet fuel costs and worsen the overall energy shock. ANOTHER HAIRBRAIN IDEA...
Bank of England rate-setters doubt that the Iran war will trigger a UK price spiral https://t.co/7RIt9Lei1J via @irinaanghel12 @KowalczeKamil @tomelleryrees https://t.co/nWmHGMb2Qb
A wry aside (inspired by @stanveuger): Implementing unconstitutional tariffs ensures you get all of the distortions and costs of tariffs, and (assuming refunds are required) none of the revenue. Lose lose.
With Brent crude around $109, following the decision to release 400 million barrels from the SPR, along with waivers for Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan oil entering the market, the path is clear: The longer the war drags on, the higher...
The maker of Sharpie - praised by Trump & other US protectionists - says its "investments in production in Tennessee rely on imported equipment, and the company worries that higher tariffs on those machines could make reshoring and local production...
Airlines are being hit HARD in Asia by the war in Iran. Both KLM and Air France have added SURCHARGES on long-haul flights while airlines cancel HUNDREDS of other flights. KLM & AF SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP...
In an attempt to ANNEX southern Lebanon, Israel is now setting up fortifications & creating a so-called “buffer zone” between Israel & Lebanon. Israel is already ILLEGALLY occupying about 8% of Lebanon’s territory. https://t.co/9FEQdXkvKH
Goldman Sachs downgrades India to Market Weight and lowers NIFTY target to 25,900 from 29,300.
Be careful not to confuse changes in valuation and changes in custodial patterns (after Russia's reserves were immobilized) with actual sales https://t.co/zTGz75N9rr
Unemployment rate rising Geopolitical conflicts rising Price of oil rising Inflation rising Airport travel collapsing Bitcoin dropping Stocks dropping All business cycles must come to an end, and it usually ends with a recession.
As long as Hormuz stays closed (which is highly likely near term), 10y UST yields will likely keep rising until either Fed or Treasury are forced to inject USD liquidity (into an oil spike & increasingly fracturing global supply chains)...
Iran shepherds friendly bulkers through Hormuz ▶️Evidence the Islamic Republic is allowing its own trade through the Strait of Hormuz ▶️Increase in westbound transits after weeks-long lull ▶️Other bulkers that have waited in the Arabian Sea are now on the move towards the...
The ill-conceived US-Israeli war against Iran will go down in history as one of the great supply shocks. Surprisingly, it hasn’t been fully priced into the market yet. https://t.co/0P6D68qJi7
