Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global Economy Pulse
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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
India services PMI drops to 57.5, hitting 14‑month low
India's services Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 57.5 in March, a 14‑month low, while input‑price inflation reached a 45‑month high. Job creation rose for a third consecutive month, the strongest since mid‑2025, even as manufacturing PMI slipped to 53.9 and export orders stayed resilient despite weaker domestic demand and tourism.
Gold prices slipped on Monday, with spot gold falling 0.6% to $4,466.99 per ounce, marking a 15% monthly decline—the sharpest since October 2008. The drop was driven by a surge in energy prices after a Houthi attack, which lifted Brent crude above $115 a barrel and revived inflation concerns. Higher oil prices have dampened expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, strengthening the dollar and further weighing on gold. Analysts warn volatility may continue as macro dynamics shift.
To me, the news cycle now resembles that of March 2020, where it feels like we're dealing with an unpredictable threat that will have immense global consequences. That's subjective, though the swing in oil prices provides a data point to back...
Geopolitical Cushion: The West Asia crisis, now entering its fifth week, is providing a floor for prices. Investors are holding onto gold and silver as "safe-haven" assets to protect against uncertainty.
Italy and Hungary have signed an agreement to create a customs corridor that shifts all clearance procedures for cargo arriving at the port of Trieste onto Hungarian territory. The move aims to speed up processing, reduce paperwork and ease congestion...
In a March 29, 2026 X Spaces interview hosted by George Noble, Michael Howell reaffirmed that the global liquidity cycle peaked in early 2026 and is now losing momentum. Trackers show total global liquidity around US$188 trillion, but growth has slowed as central banks...
Electric vehicles rely heavily on Gulf‑sourced aluminum, but the U.S.–Iran conflict has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, forcing major smelters in Bahrain and Qatar to cut or halt output. Toyota and Nissan have already trimmed production by roughly 40,000 units,...
South Korea is weighing a nationwide driving‑curb policy if global crude oil prices climb to roughly $120‑$130 per barrel, up from the current $100‑$110 range. The measure would extend the current public‑sector vehicle rotation system, marking the first country‑wide restriction...
Macro economist gone all wild bear mode. Stocks will be raging lower. Why? Market is still not pricing the impact of a prolonged war as the credit spread is gapping. Will share more details today.
The week ahead is data‑heavy, with Eurozone inflation, U.S. payrolls and retail sales, and Canada’s GDP on the calendar. Energy‑price pressure from the Iran conflict could push euro‑area inflation higher, complicating the ECB’s path to price stability. In the United...
German inflation data, driven by higher energy prices, is set to rise sharply in March, prompting the ECB to consider a June rate hike despite likely looking through the spike. Market pricing reflects a 55% probability of an April hike...
The EU-India trade deal cuts tariffs, but CBAM stays unchanged and keeps carbon compliance in focus. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/eu-india-fta-and-cbam-remain-on.html
This was never just about price. While most focus on where oil is trading, the more important question is who prepared for this environment. Stockpiling, reserves, and long-term planning change how pressure is absorbed — and how decisions get made when systems...
Donald Trump announced he would "take" Iran's oil, hinting at a direct seizure of the Kharg Island export hub. The Pentagon is reportedly preparing weeks‑long ground operations, with thousands of troops redeployed to the Middle East. The threat has lifted...
Westpac has revised its outlook, expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift the cash rate to 4.85% by year‑end, the highest level since the Global Financial Crisis. The bank predicts three consecutive 0.25‑percentage‑point hikes in May, June and August,...
European markets opened lower on Monday but quickly split, with Germany's DAX barely down 0.04%, while the FTSE 100 rose 0.59% and France's CAC 40 edged up 0.05%. The divergence follows a 50% jump in Brent crude since the Iran...
Indian jewellery retailers are seeing a sharp decline in Gulf sales as the West Asia conflict intensifies. March sales in key Gulf markets fell up to 70% year‑on‑year, hitting chains like Malabar Gold & Diamonds, Kalyan Jewellers, Joyalukkas and Titan’s...
Recent record‑breaking corporate bond issuance, led by Amazon, has shrunk capital‑raising windows from weeks to mere hours. The speed of credit markets now hinges on rapid interpretation of massive data flows, yet many firms still rely on outdated terminals and...
This is unreal: Trump just ‘granted permission’ for Russia to deliver oil to Cuba saying “Cuba is finished… whether or not they get a boat of oil…” Trump views 9.7 -11 million people as mere pawns subject to his rule and...
The United States is pivoting from tariff‑based pressure to Section 301, using the trade act to label partner institutions as “unfair” and demand reforms. A recent Supreme Court ruling invalidated IEEPA tariffs, prompting the Trump administration to adopt a temporary 15%...
Taiwan will be receiving its last shipment of Oil from the Strait of Hormuz in the next couple of days. Over under odds China will try to take advantage of their lack of fuel supply and Trump concentrating military power...
Investigations reveal Bangladesh lost roughly $68 bn through trade misinvoicing over the past ten years, with additional illicit outflows estimated at $23‑$27 bn from major industrial groups. The scheme involved import over‑invoicing and export under‑invoicing, facilitated by weak customs, banking oversight, and...
BlackRock’s senior strategist says Latin America’s abundant metal reserves give the region a buffer against a potential global slowdown triggered by the Iran‑Israel conflict. The area’s copper, lithium and nickel supplies are essential for the AI‑driven hardware boom, providing a...
India’s brewers warn of glass bottle and aluminium can shortages as gas‑driven packaging costs surge, while farmers describe fertilizer as “as precious as gold” after Urea prices jumped to $600/ton. A parallel cash‑flow squeeze at fuel depots, caused by oil...
Supply‑chain analysts and pharma leaders say the UK is only weeks away from drug shortages if the Iran‑related war continues, as Gulf disruptions and Indian export constraints choke raw‑material flows and air‑freight costs double.
India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology will stop certifying Chinese CCTV brands such as Hikvision and Dahua from April 1, effectively barring them from the market. The new essential requirements mandate disclosure of component origins and vulnerability testing, forcing...
Maersk announced an emergency fuel surcharge and temporarily halted operations at its Salalah terminal after a drone attack injured a worker and damaged a crane. The move comes as the Israel‑Iran‑Houthi conflict closes the Strait of Hormuz and pushes global...
The Bank of Mexico voted 3-2 to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 6.75%, prompting the peso to slip past 18 per U.S. dollar for the first time since December. The move came as inflation hit 4.63%...
U.S. equity markets posted a fifth consecutive week of losses as Treasury yields surged amid heightened Iran tensions. The market slump marks the longest losing streak in nearly four years, underscoring how geopolitical risk is reshaping bond and stock dynamics.
U.S. mortgage rates have jumped sharply, creating a major obstacle for the spring home‑buying season. The rise is tied to higher Treasury yields as geopolitical tensions lift oil prices and weigh on global bond markets.
U.S. pump prices are climbing toward $4 a gallon as the Iran‑Israel war drives crude above $100 a barrel and diesel to record levels. Analysts warn the surge could deepen stagflation, hitting families and farmers alike.
The United States has moved to eliminate China’s exploitation of the de minimis duty‑free exemption, a change that will curb the flood of low‑value parcels that have undercut domestic sellers. The policy shift follows a bipartisan congressional probe and a...
Oil prices jumped above $116 a barrel on Sunday as Iran‑backed Houthi militants fired missiles and drones at Israel, extending the conflict into its fifth week. Brent crude rose 3.3% to $116.25, while U.S. WTI climbed about 3% to nearly...
The Reserve Bank of Australia announced that its monetary policy board members will begin delivering public speeches this year, a move designed to increase transparency around interest‑rate decisions. Academic Ian Harper and business leader Carolyn Hewson are slated to give...
Kevin Muir’s second "Catching up with Kev" column links a rare VIX inversion to a surge in bond buying, highlights Japan’s monetary tightening, and dissects JPMorgan’s massive options position that’s reshaping market dynamics. He notes that the VIX’s short‑term contract...
Trump allowing the Russian oil tanker to reach #Cuba does NOT disprove the US quarantine. It PROVES it. The only oil that will reach Cuba is the oil that the US allows. As I scooped a month ago: the plan is to...
Think of the 1-year forward 1-year inflation swap as a market gauge for the current inflation vs growth battle. At the start of the war, the forward measure surged higher along with the current 1-year swap as inflation concerns dominated, but...
My latest with @davidlin_TV on US energy dependence: "If you include all energy products, the US is a net exporter. But if you look at crude oil, the US is a net oil IMPORTER. Forget that we are a net exporter of...
Plenty of analysis of the Gulf's two bypass pipelines - but as Hormuz remains near-shut, what more can the GCC do to avoid the Strait and narrow? https://t.co/6EwDOmaObS @TheNationalNews
COLUMN: Five weeks into the Third Gulf War, the math of oil-barrel counting is intractable: The world is short of the black stuff. Enter demand destruction. @Opinion https://t.co/Y2DPUcHM8s
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned “we are heading toward a greater war.” He called the conflict a fight for Netanyahu’s “political survival”, with consequences that “affect the whole world.” https://t.co/DJNLKRC4xI
JUST IN: Markets dropped to a four-month trough as the oil price surge unnerved traders.
JUST IN: Trump signals no issue with Russian tanker fuel for Cuba, effectively easing the oil blockade.
JUST IN: Trump's Strait of Hormuz warning and Iran's counter-threats are making oil prices jumpy.
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Net foreign direct investment (FDI) into India was a NEGATIVE $1.4B in January. That marks 5 STRAIGHT MONTHS of negative flows. INDIA’S MOUNTAIN OF GOVERNMENT RED TAPE = REPELS FDI = BIG PROBLEM.
One of the ironies of the current war and the Strait of Hormuz crisis is that President Trump inadvertently helped GLOBALIZE China’s approach of tightly linking control over energy sources to national energy security. The long-term implications of this development...
Lots of talk about oil exporters in the Gulf selling fx reserves. That may happen. But for now the visible fall in fx reserves is coming from the oil importers (CBRT = Turkey, RBI= India) https://t.co/8prQkznGG6
"I don't see any possibility of a resolution to this conflict," says @ksadjadpour "We could see a potential ceasefire that opens the Strait of Hormuz, he added I don't see any possibility of that either.
Here is what I said: “If your only hope is two Fed cuts this year, you’re backing the wrong horse.”
Trump just said that he has "no problem" if a country wants to send oil to #Cuba right now. May come as a BIG surprise to Mexico and a few other countries -- which were threated with tariffs just TWO months...
HEADLINE NEXT YEAR: The X tweet bridge built between Japan and America added 3% to their combined GDPs
