Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as fuel cuts mask rising core inflation
The consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% forecast, helped by a temporary fuel excise cut that lowered transport costs. Meanwhile, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
Gold: A Volatile Path Towards a New Base. WisdomTree’s Forecasts Through to the First Quarter of 2027
WisdomTree’s latest outlook projects gold moving toward a higher equilibrium by Q1 2027, but with sustained volatility. The metal spiked to a record $5,600 per ounce in January 2026 before plunging to $4,100, while quarterly demand jumped 74% YoY to $193 bn. New demand sources—Tether, Chinese insurers, Indian pension funds—are broadening the buyer base, reinforcing long‑term support. The firm offers three price scenarios for 2027, ranging from $4,634 to $5,872 per ounce, with a consensus forecast of $5,493.
Czech Consumer Remains Resilient so Far
Czech real retail sales rose 4.9% year‑on‑year in March, beating expectations, with a 1.2% monthly gain. Real wages grew 5.1% in the fourth quarter and lower regulated energy fees bolstered household spending. Motor‑vehicle sales increased 2% YoY while remaining flat...
China Opposes US Sanctions over Iran, Pledges to Protect Firms
China publicly rejected U.S. sanctions targeting three Chinese firms accused of supporting Iran's military operations. Beijing called the measures illegal and unilateral, emphasizing that Chinese companies must operate under Chinese law. The Chinese spokesperson said the priority is to prevent...
China Pumps AI and Weapons, Economy Sputters
Xi’s China: Dazzling Technology, Military Muscle—and an Economic Mess. Government pours money into AI, electric cars and military power, while consumer confidence sags and job market grows bleak @BrianSpegele https://t.co/oLalrSpepN https://t.co/oLalrSpepN
Partner Insight: No Disruption to the Post - Covid Commodities Boom
The commodities cycle is now in its mid‑phase, propelled by capital investment as demand for strategic metals surges from electrification, renewable energy, electric vehicles and data‑centre expansion. Supply deficits persist because new mining projects won’t deliver significant output until around...
Market Outlook for the Week of 11th - 15th May
The week of May 11‑15 is data‑heavy, starting with U.S. existing‑home sales and followed by core CPI, PPI and retail sales releases that will test inflation trends. A Senate vote is expected to confirm Kevin Warsh as the next Federal...
After Winning Poll Battles, Modi Has Picked up a New Fight
After winning elections in West Bengal and Assam, Prime Minister Narendra Modi shifted focus to economic mobilisation, urging citizens to curb consumption as crude oil prices surged above $100 a barrel. He called for reduced fuel use, postponed gold purchases,...
AFGC Sounds Alarm on Sector Under Strain
The Australian Food and Grocery Council (AFGC) warns that a "perfect storm" of the Middle East conflict, soaring energy costs and domestic economic pressures is straining food and grocery supply chains. Brent crude has risen 39% year‑on‑year, pushing container freight...
Chinese Apparel Exports to US Plunge 53 per Cent in Q1
Chinese apparel shipments to the United States plunged 53% in value during Q1 2026, falling to $1.70 bn from $3.61 bn a year earlier. The decline, based on OTEXA data, signals a rapid reallocation of sourcing away from China toward other low‑cost...
Guindos Calls for Cautious Rate Policy Before Exit
ECB’s Guindos urges rate ‘prudence’ as he prepares to leave the central bank https://t.co/zrPWNMfuOi https://t.co/cCXOg02GW0
Heads Up: Trump-Xi Summit Due for Later This Week
U.S. President Donald Trump will travel to Beijing from May 13‑15, marking the first visit by a U.S. president since 2017. The trip, framed as a symbolically significant diplomatic overture, follows a year of tariff escalations and a postponed schedule due...
The Pain of Trump’s War Could Get Even Worse
Investors are buoyed by record highs in the US and Japan stock markets, but the underlying oil shock from the blocked Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. The article notes that while first‑round effects—higher fuel prices and modest consumer pull‑back—are visible,...
Russia-Linked LNG Carrier ‘Merkuriy’ Loads at Arctic Hub, Expanding Shadow Fleet Capacity
The former Oman‑owned LNG carrier Merkuriy, along with three sister ships, has been reflagged to Russia and observed loading LNG at the Saam floating storage unit. The quartet—Merkuriy, Kosmos, Luch and Orion—are being integrated into the sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 logistics...
Ankara’s Crossroads: Rearmament, Risk, and the Prospect of War with Israel
Turkey is accelerating a multi‑decade defence modernisation while debating whether to prepare for a possible clash with Israel. Ankara’s budget rose 30% amid 30% inflation, yet key platforms like the Altay tank remain scarce and the Kaan fighter, Kızıl Elma drone...
India, Peru to Hold Talks on Free Trade Pact in June
India and Peru are set to resume negotiations on a bilateral free‑trade agreement in June, with a target to seal the pact by the end of 2026. The talks will include a dedicated chapter on critical minerals, reflecting Peru’s status...
Electronics Exports Among Top 3 Items From India, to Grow More in Future: Vaishnaw
India's electronics exports have risen to become one of the top three export categories, with smartphones now the single largest exported item. The government reported roughly ₹30,000 crore (about $3.6 billion) in electronics component shipments to neighboring markets last year. Seventy‑one domestic...
Trump Seeks to End Iran War Before China Summit
Iran War Hangs Over China Summit—As Trump prepares to meet with Xi Jinping this week, he is eager to move on from the conflict that is hurting his domestic power and the global economy @AnnieLinskey @alexbward @GavinBade https://t.co/RZ8h2LdG17 https://t.co/RZ8h2LdG17
Japanese-Built Ultramax Values Jump
Japanese‑built ultramax vessels are experiencing a sharp price surge, highlighted by the recent sale of the 64,000 dwt Dominator for $38 million—a 17% increase over its $32.5 million price seven months earlier. The market is also seeing strong demand for 15‑20‑year‑old panamax and...
Inflation Data, War News Could Dominate Week Ahead
The Schwab Market Update for Monday, May 11, highlighted a quiet start to the week, giving investors time to digest the strong April jobs report that showed 115,000 new jobs and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate. Upcoming key data includes...
Current Account Deficits Erode Manufacturing, Fuel Protectionist Backlash
1/2 Daire MacFadden: "In countries running a current account deficit, persistent imbalances have hollowed out domestic manufacturing and generated a political backlash, as today’s tariffs and other trade protectionism show." https://t.co/Wcm54bb9bL
Gold Demand Climbs as Top Miners Post Record Q1 Earnings>
Gold demand grew 2% YoY in Q1 2026, reaching 1,231 tonnes and a $193 billion value, driven by central bank buying and strong bar and coin purchases. Central banks added 244 tonnes, a 3% increase, while Asian investors pushed bar and...
India’s Growth to Slow to 6.7% on Waning Momentum, Oil Price Shock: BMI
India’s fiscal‑year 2026‑27 GDP growth is now projected at 6.7%, a full percentage point below the 7.7% pace recorded in 2025‑26. The downgrade stems from waning domestic momentum and an oil‑price shock linked to the Iran‑U.S. conflict, with Brent crude...
What Are the Main Events for Today?
The market entered a quiet Sunday with no major economic releases, leaving traders to focus on escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. Both President Trump and Tehran dismissed recent cease‑fire proposals, keeping the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and uncertainty high. In the...
UK Households Bracing for New Cost of Living Crisis, Report Finds
A PwC survey released in April shows UK consumer confidence plunging to –13, the steepest decline since mid‑2022, as inflation ticked up to 3.3% and the Iran‑Israel conflict fuels cost pressures. Almost nine‑in‑ten households say they are worried about the...
China's Car Sales Slump 21% as Exports Surge 80%
1/4 According to Reuters, domestic car sales in China were down 21.6% year on year in April, even as car exports surged 80.2%. Everyone knows that domestic demand remains incredibly sluggish in China, but such sharp drops in domestic car... https://t.co/1pXBP8tJVw
Trump's Fury at Germany Threatens EU Trade Negotiations
Trump’s anger at Germany hangs over EU trade deal push https://t.co/W3Dp9jWroX via @AfPalasciano @europressos https://t.co/mx2HhVPgAj
RBI Should Dial Back Rupee Intervention: Former Governor Subbarao
Former RBI governor Duvvuri Subbarao warned that the central bank’s aggressive rupee‑intervention policy should be scaled back. He argues the RBI should let the rupee weaken to reflect rising import costs and capital outflows, reserving rate hikes as a last resort....
SMA Says Overcapacity Remains a Threat
The Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA) testified before USTR investigators, urging the use of Section 301 tariffs to combat global steel overcapacity that threatens U.S. jobs and competition. SMA highlighted that China’s excess capacity exceeds U.S. steel output by more than eight...
Emerging Currencies Weaken as Iran Conflict Dims Risk Appetite
Emerging‑market currencies slipped against the U.S. dollar on Monday as oil prices surged past $105 a barrel and the Iran‑Israel conflict intensified. The MSCI Emerging‑Market Currency index declined 0.1%, with oil‑importing economies such as India, Chile, South Korea and Thailand...
EU Lags Behind in Global Critical Minerals Race
Race for critical minerals leaves the EU struggling to keep up https://t.co/aKOMiM6t2M via @jendeben https://t.co/w8GW85k9Y9
China's Infrastructure Push Fuels Iron Ore Rally
1/4 Bloomberg: "Iron ore rose as signs of solid Chinese demand offset concerns over rising supply" No surprise here. China needed to boost infrastructure investment sharply, and this had to be good for related commodities. https://t.co/xLQ6XURUTD
_3.jpg)
Iraq Drops Out of Thai Rice Market Due to Hormuz Blockage
Thailand's rice exports to Iraq have stopped completely for three months after the war in the Middle East blocked the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq, previously Thailand's largest rice market at 80‑90 000 tonnes per month, now receives no shipments. The disruption...
Yen Intervention Caution Likely Capping Dollar’s Gains
Morgan Stanley expects the U.S. dollar index to retreat toward 95 as robust earnings boost equity markets and risk appetite improves, though this hinges on forthcoming U.S. data staying neutral. The strategists also see the dollar benefiting from a narrowing...
Does Beijing RUN Things? Is Xi, China's Xi, Our Daddy Trump's Daddy? So Our Daddy Has a Daddy? Can His...
The post highlights that the U.S. Department of Defense now depends on Beijing’s approval to replenish critical rare‑earth minerals needed for weapons systems. It cites the Democracy Perception Index released on May 8, showing China’s global perception at +7% while the...
ECB Plans Two Rate Hikes in 2026 Amid Rising Inflation
ECB to hike rates twice in 2026 as inflation jumps, survey shows https://t.co/rmmGoo23tC via @NickHeubeck https://t.co/dLWVfE1Cc2
‘It’s Like We Went Bankrupt Overnight’: Poorest Somalis Suffer as Piles of Worthless Shillings Mount Up
Somali traders in Mogadishu have begun refusing the country’s deteriorating shilling notes, prompting businesses and transport operators to follow suit. The move has instantly driven up prices for essentials such as milk and vegetables, as consumers are forced to pay...
Modi Says Iran War Poses Severe Risks to India, Urges Cuts in Fuel Use and Gold Purchases
Prime Minister Narendra Modi warned that the Iran‑Israel war is creating a severe energy shock for India and urged citizens to curb fuel consumption, limit overseas travel, and pause gold purchases. India imports roughly 85% of its energy needs, with...
Modi Asks Indians to Stop Buying Gold, Hitting Jewelry Stocks
Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged Indians to refrain from buying gold jewelry for at least a year, citing the need to protect the nation’s foreign‑exchange reserves. The appeal came alongside calls to curb fuel consumption and discretionary overseas travel. India...
RBI Said to Be Likely Stepping Into the Market to Try and Limit the Rupee's Fall
The Reserve Bank of India is reportedly intervening in the foreign‑exchange market to curb the rupee’s slide, keeping USD/INR near 94.95 despite rising oil prices. The currency has been pressured by higher crude costs and geopolitical tension in the Strait...
Price Controls Trigger Gas Station Closures, Shortages
Tragic but predictable: South Korea imposed communist-style price controls on gasoline… and gas stations started closing. Shortages incoming. Price controls never work
Euro Adoption and Price Increases in Bulgaria: Separating Myths From Facts
Bulgaria officially adopted the euro in January 2026, ending the lev era. Early data from the European Central Bank show only a modest, one‑off uptick in consumer prices, concentrated in services, while overall inflation remained stable. Authorities mitigated price‑rise fears through...
French Cinema Is Spooked by the Far Right
The latest EU Foreign Ministers meeting in Brussels is set to tackle sanctions against Israeli individuals linked to West Bank settler violence. At the same time, EU officials are preparing a fresh sanctions package targeting Russia to pressure Moscow back...
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Increased in April
The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index (ETI) rose to 105.77 in April, up from 105.52 in March, signaling a likely rebound in payroll growth. The increase was driven by a drop in consumers reporting jobs as hard to get and...
China Expanding Its Industrial Dominance, Warns US Business Group
A leading U.S. business coalition warned that China is rapidly expanding its industrial dominance through aggressive subsidies, state‑backed investment, and technology transfer policies. The group highlighted that China’s manufacturing output rose 6% year‑on‑year in 2023, while its high‑tech sector received...
Europe Should Behave More Like China Does if It Wants to Survive This Age of Chaos
Mark Leonard argues Europe must adopt a China‑style strategy to survive an era of "un‑order," where traditional rules no longer govern global competition. He highlights China's pre‑emptive stockpiling of oil, food, semiconductors and dominance in rare‑earths, drones, batteries and other...
Will the ECB Shift Tack on the Digital Euro?
The European Central Bank is reconsidering its digital euro strategy, signaling a possible delay and a broader pilot that now includes retail‑payment scenarios. Officials cite the need to refine privacy safeguards, address regulatory uncertainties, and respond to growing competition from...
How AI Mania Is Disguising Big Companies’ Hit From Iran War — in Charts
Despite the Iran war disrupting airlines, consumer spending and energy logistics, the world’s biggest publicly listed companies have collectively added more than $5.4 trillion in market value—a 4.2% gain—within ten weeks of the conflict. The rally is powered chiefly by technology...
How the UK Can Use the Bond Markets’ ‘Kindness of Strangers’
The UK now spends over £100 bn (≈ $127 bn) a year on debt interest, roughly 1 in 12 pounds of government spending, despite a lower debt‑to‑GDP ratio than France and Italy. Yield differentials mean the UK pays about 5% on 10‑year gilts...
The Winners and Losers of the Iran Energy Shock
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March choked roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows, triggering national energy emergencies and sharp price spikes. Countries heavily dependent on imported fuels, from the Philippines to Zambia, scrambled for emergency...
Luis De Guindos: Interview with Financial Times
ECB Vice‑President Luis de Guindos told the Financial Times that the current energy‑price shock differs from the 2021‑22 inflation surge, noting that monetary policy is now tightening and fiscal space is constrained. He cautioned against postponing decisions for academic debates and...