Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
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Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
India’s gold imports surge 29% to $69 billion, widening trade deficit
India’s gold imports jumped 28.73% to $69 billion in the April‑February 2025‑26 period, driven by record‑high prices of about $1,825 per 10 grams. The influx pushed the country’s trade deficit to $310.6 billion, up from $261.8 billion a year earlier.
The week of March 29‑April 5 is dominated by three interlocking crises: the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, a stalled Ukraine peace process, and looming U.S. tariff reviews. President Trump faces an April 6 deadline for Iran to accept U.S. peace terms, but all signs point to rejection, raising the risk of a broader military escalation and keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed. That closure is already driving volatility in oil, chemicals and fertilizer markets. Meanwhile, Europe’s diplomatic agenda – Macron’s 350‑company delegation to Japan and South Korea and an EU‑China trade mission – adds a layer of trade‑policy uncertainty as the U.S. releases a packed slate of jobs and inflation data.
The stock market is screaming fear. VIX at 31. The bond market? Shrugging. High-yield credit spreads are at 317 basis points — BELOW the 20-year average. One of these markets is wrong. If spreads stay below 400, we bounce. If they blow through 500, brace...
The episode reviews volatile global markets amid the ongoing Iran conflict, noting a dip in U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields and mixed equity performance while oil prices stay elevated. ANZ economists discuss upcoming Australian credit growth data and New Zealand business confidence,...
Western allies are wrestling with a new plan to secure the Strait of Hormuz after a costly, largely unsuccessful Red Sea operation against Yemen's Houthis. The Red Sea effort expended over $1 billion, sank four vessels, and left the route largely...
New US LNG export project begins operations 🇺🇸🚢 The Golden Pass plant (a JV with Qatar & Exxon) just started LNG production at 1 of its 3 trains. First export expected from 2Q The world is scrambling for more US LNG as...
The Guardian editorial warns that Donald Trump’s fifth week of war against Iran lacks a coherent strategy, with U.S. strikes and Iranian missile attacks creating a stalemate. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven oil prices above $80...
US Natural Gas' 100% 1Q Pump-Then-Dump May Guide 2026 Crude Oil - The roughly 100% 1Q rise in the front US natural gas future, and reversal to minus 18% on March 27, may lead crude oil's way in 2026, as...
In this episode, host Chuck Jaffe and guests—including Jim Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington‑Altus Private Wealth, and Vijay Maroglia, CIO of Regal Point Capital—debunk the panic surrounding the Iran‑related oil “terror premium” and AI hype, urging investors to "sell...
The BEA updated the US net international investment position last week for Q4 '25 and it stood at $27.5 trillion. That's the amount of assets foreigners own in the US vs what the US owns in the rest of the...
India’s fiscal deficit for April‑February reached ₹12.5 lakh crore (≈ $151 billion), about 80 % of the revised estimate and lower than the ₹13.5 lakh crore (≈ $163 billion) recorded a year earlier. The shortfall represents 4.4 % of GDP, with the Finance Ministry targeting a 4.5 % ratio for FY26....
Judd Kessler, a Wharton professor and author of *Lucky by Design*, explains how market design governs the allocation of scarce resources—from organ transplants and school seats to concert tickets and restaurant reservations. He illustrates that many everyday “luck” moments are...
In this Macro Mondays episode, Mikkel Rostewald and Andreas dissect the ongoing Iran‑U.S. conflict, weighing the likelihood of diplomatic resolution versus a broader military escalation. They examine the immediate market fallout—oil supply disruptions, the impact on by‑products like helium and...
The Democratic Republic of Congo and Canada deepened their trade partnership during a WTO ministerial meeting, announcing plans for a joint DRC‑Canada Economic Forum. Both sides highlighted private‑sector collaboration to boost bilateral trade and diversify the DRC’s economy. Canada pledged...
Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warned that cash could be the worst place to hide money as markets enter a period of heightened risk. His comment, made during a recent interview, is likely to reshape asset‑allocation strategies for wealth managers and...
A surge in oil prices sparked a risk-off market week, driving the S&P 500 below its anchored VWAP from April 2025 lows. The technical breach highlights heightened selling pressure and a shift in market structure as traders brace for further...
Private‑equity firms, anchored by Quadria Capital’s $4.2 billion under management, are pouring capital into Asia’s $5 trillion healthcare market to offset a chronic public‑spending shortfall. The surge creates fresh opportunities for consulting firms to advise on strategy, operations and market entry across...
Sixty‑six World Trade Organization members formally adopted a baseline e‑commerce agreement, extending the moratorium on customs duties for cross‑border digital services. The deal, hailed as a milestone for global trade policy, comes amid ongoing WTO reform talks and divergent views...
The Dominican Republic has leveraged three decades of political stability and institutional continuity to transition from an agrarian economy to a diversified, open market that now grows at roughly 5% annually—well above the Latin American average. This steady growth has...
Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum defended her nation’s right to ship oil to Cuba, framing the move as both humanitarian and commercial. Her comments followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent softening of the oil embargo on the island and the arrival...
Hedge funds are markedly increasing their exposure to Dubai and Abu Dhabi, signaling renewed confidence in the UAE’s financial hub despite the ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict. At the same time, property developers in the Emirates have launched a concerted outreach to...
Bull Trap or the safe heaven status is back ? Gold has been on the rise for the past few days meanwhile Geopolitical tensions & inflation fears are still on the rise. Let me share my 2 cents on what's happening &...
South Korean Unification Minister Chung Dong‑young referred to the North by its official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, signalling a shift toward a "peaceful two‑state framework." President Lee Jae‑myung’s END Initiative separates denuclearisation from engagement, emphasizing exchange and...
In March 2026 a series of high‑level U.S. visits to New Delhi – including Assistant Secretary Paul Kapur, Deputy Secretary Christopher Landau and Under Secretary Elbridge Colby – kept diplomatic momentum alive. The visits produced a $43 million Boeing contract for P‑8...
The 1970s oil crisis, sparked by an Arab embargo, caused oil prices to quadruple and triggered a global recession. Today, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict threatens to cut roughly 20% of world oil supply,...
Europe faces its sharpest energy shock since 2022 after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly 20% of global oil and liquid gas supplies. Benchmark oil prices have surged above €115 ($125) per barrel and EU gas prices are...
The Iran war has disrupted a greater share of oil supplies than any previous shock. And this time, there is virtually no spare capacity available to make up the gap. @wsj
Oil prices surged on Monday as Brent crude briefly topped $117 a barrel and U.S. crude hovered around $102, driven by escalating conflict in the Middle East. Iran’s attacks on aluminium smelters in Bahrain and the UAE pushed metal prices...
The Iran‑Russia war has shut the Strait of Hormuz, forcing Central Asian exporters to abandon the Southern Corridor. Kazakhstan’s Trans‑Caspian “Middle Corridor” has surged from 0.8 million to 4.5 million tons between 2020 and 2024, growing over 60 % in 2024 alone. The...
From 1 July 2026 the EU will scrap the €150 (≈ $165) de minimis exemption, imposing a €3 (≈ $3.30) duty on each imported item. The change targets low‑value parcels that have surged with cross‑border e‑commerce and aims to curb undervaluation. UK brands shipping directly...
The Strait of Hormuz blockade, now in its second month, has halted the flow of roughly 21 million barrels of oil per day—about 20% of global consumption—and disrupted 30% of the world’s nitrogen‑based fertilizer trade, sending Brent crude sharply higher. British...
Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, faces sharp criticism from The Economist for failing to deliver the structural reforms she pledged, opting instead for incremental tweaks. The publication highlights that despite external pressures such as the lingering US‑Mexico trade war, USMCA...
We're managing to squeeze a few additional ships back out of the Strait of Hormuz, but as the Bloomberg chart below highlights far more are leaving (outbound) than returning (inbound). On one level that's obvious (who wants to go *into* the...
IMF says the Iran war means higher prices, slower growth worldwide https://t.co/xsjyA1lVNX via @jdorosario https://t.co/RqEIMO88cd
Pulitzer‑winning energy analyst Daniel Yergin warned that Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger an economic meltdown if it persists. He noted that 80% of oil and 90% of natural gas flowing through the strait head to Asia,...
If both stocks and bonds can’t catch a bid, the message is simple: inflation risk is a tax on EVERYTHING. That’s why ‘balanced’ can feel unbalanced. https://t.co/TSSid8H3g0
All the middle east, geopolitics and energy experts keep talking about reopening the Strait of Hormuz as if that solves the problem. It doesn’t. The Strait is just the front door. The entire Persian Gulf is now a kill zone. 1/2 https://t.co/ZHp06lZzYS
When it comes to great power competition, it’s always good to look at the numbers. A PICTURE IS WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS. https://t.co/oDxkPFvNS7
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 9% against the USD. AN IMPORTANT FACT THAT THE WESTERN MEDIA HAS FAILED TO REPORT ON. https://t.co/Dlt04mOOmJ
Status of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: USD Share Drops to 31-Year Low as Central Banks Diversify into Other Currencies & Gold. The spike of the “non-traditional reserve currencies.” https://t.co/cHnT24iCcd https://t.co/kINZT79BbA
Powell doesn’t seem particularly concerned about inflation. Plenty of “tools” left in the toolbox, apparently :) Two words come to mind: Hard Assets. https://t.co/hITFzs7Q38 https://t.co/POZgWWN4c6
Stagflation is a bad environment for equities, with low (real) returns and high volatility GS Europe https://t.co/QhgQfFdqYh
GS Europe: Stagflation risk re‑enters the debate. We have downgraded GDP growth in 2026 by around 0.7pp in the Euro area We have raised our end-2026 inflation forecast by around 1.4pp in the Euro area https://t.co/E3drISW5P1
$TLT can rally in a recession and still be a bad trade if inflation expectations won’t chill. Duration isn’t a safe haven when the bond market stops believing. https://t.co/Rb9uYrLUHk
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn export inspections topped all trade expectations, but soybeans fell slightly below. 46% of the inspected soybean cargoes were destined for China. https://t.co/qtmgF00LfJ
Gold can drop hard while inflation headlines stay hot. That’s not ‘gold is broken’. That’s real rates and margin calls. Correlations don’t die. They just take vacations. https://t.co/LB3g5NQWP9
A ground war isn’t escalation—it’s a recipe for disaster, writes Rabobank's Stefan Koopman Regime change means occupation. Occupation means insurgency. Insurgency means years of loss. Iran isn’t Venezuela. This doesn’t end quickly. #IranWar #Geopolitics #Oil https://t.co/mwwBgWwDU4
POWELL: INFLATION EXPECTATIONS REMAIN WELL ANCHORED - Bloomberg. *Inflation expectations (breakevens), below. "Well anchored?" https://t.co/oWnwOzgMcY
Euro is poised for worst quarter since 2024 as oil shock bites https://t.co/Z3N3DfLpbB via @vkaramanis_fx https://t.co/yjLvpdnvVF
As we approach the 1-year anniversary of "Liberation Day" this week, @sdonnan reports that new foreign investment in the US was actually down significantly last year: https://t.co/s1wGG4RQiu
