Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
UK Borrowing Costs Rise as Starmer Speech Fails to Dispel Investor ‘Jitters’
UK gilt yields climbed on Monday, with the 10‑year benchmark reaching 5% and the 30‑year hitting 5.67%, after Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s speech failed to calm market nerves. The rise erases the modest yield drop seen after last week’s local elections and pushes long‑dated yields toward a 28‑year peak. Higher borrowing costs shrink Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ fiscal cushion, estimated at roughly £24 bn (about $30 bn) of margin for error. Investors also cite soaring energy prices from the Iran conflict as a key inflation driver.
Daily Memo: US-China Trade Talks, Japan-Russia Relations
Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will travel to South Korea on May 12‑13 for economic and trade consultations with U.S. officials, a prelude to an anticipated summit between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping. The visit, announced by China’s Ministry...
The Daily: Hormuz Holds, Oil Climbs, and AI Keeps Leading
Oil prices surged above $100 as the Hormuz deadlock deepened, reigniting inflation and rate pressures worldwide. AI infrastructure spending remains a growth engine, highlighted by over $10 billion of demand for Cerebras Systems ahead of a potential IPO price hike. The...
Iran Oil Crisis: Geography of Energy Risk Is Changing with Renewables, Not Disappearing
The article warns that batteries, while touted as a path to energy independence, are creating a new concentration risk because China dominates the supply chain for cells and critical materials. It cites the $1.5 trillion, ten‑year JP Morgan initiative focused on nuclear,...
Grocery Price Pressures: A Major Vibe Source
The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed diesel prices up about $2 per gallon—a 55% jump—raising transportation costs for the 80% of U.S. food that moves by truck. Simultaneously, the war has disrupted global fertilizer supplies, foreshadowing higher...
Frontier Markets Hold the Next Wave of Growth
Frontier markets—home to a billion people and classified as the UN's Least Developed Countries—receive less than 1% of global foreign direct investment, creating a massive financing gap. British International Investment (BII) and partners have launched the African Resilience Investment Accelerator...
Trump Proposes US‑China Trade Board Ahead of Summit
The Trump administration has proposed a US-China "Board of Trade" as a deliverable for the Beijing summit between the two presidents this week. Details thus far are scant. If I were a journalist on the trip, these are the first questions...
Allies at War: Japan-US Relations From the War on Terror to Today’s Iran Conflict
Professor Ryuji Hattori’s new book examines how Japan‑U.S. relations evolved from the post‑9/11 War on Terror to today’s Iran crisis. Tokyo leveraged its support for the Iraq war to extract U.S. attention on North Korea, expanding the alliance beyond East...
China’s Malacca Dilemma, After Hormuz
The Iran‑Israel conflict showed that insurance premiums can choke oil flows as effectively as naval blockades. When war‑risk rates for the Strait of Hormuz spiked to double‑digit percentages, Chinese imports were hit despite diplomatic guarantees. The article argues that China’s...
US Leverages Free Digital Services for Global Influence
The below, from the FT, is an interesting framing. But I would add another element to it. Given that most of these services are free at the point of use, it's not just that we are dependent on US services. Rebuilding...
Zephyr's Adjusted for Risk: Should Commodities Be a Core Holding in an Asset Allocation?
Zephyr market strategist Ryan Nauman and SS&C ALPS head Paul Baiocchi discussed the renewed focus on commodities amid strong gold and silver performance in 2025 and geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict. They highlighted how supply‑chain disruptions and weather‑driven events...
Fed Signals Cuts, Market Expects 2027 Hike—New Chair Faces Mismatch
The blue line is what the Fed is communicating. 2 rate cuts this year. The orange line is what the market is pricing in, a rate HIKE by Summer 2027. Warsh starts as Fed Chairman on Friday. High on his agenda...
Copper Shrugs Off Middle East Uncertainty to Eye Record High
Copper is approaching its highest ever close, trading around $13,730 per ton on the LME, as broader base‑metal prices rise despite the US‑Iran standoff. Tight supply, declining Chinese inventories, and strong demand from clean‑tech exports are driving the rally. Analysts...
Trump Has Gone From Unpredictable to Unreliable
President Trump’s once‑lauded “madman theory” has morphed into perceived unreliability, straining a 15% EU tariff deal and prompting threats of a 25% car duty. Shifting rhetoric on Iran, China and Taiwan leaves allies questioning U.S. commitments and exploring alternatives to...
Policy Frictions, Trade Disruptions Shape Metal Flows – Report
Heraeus' May 11 “Precious Appraisal” report highlights how lingering US‑Iran tensions and trade frictions are driving volatility in precious‑metal markets, with gold up 2.7% and silver up 5.1% as Brent crude fell 6.2% and the S&P 500 rose 1%. In India, gold...
Interest Rates Can’t Control Today’s Inflation
Inflation is rising again in advanced economies, driven by geopolitical turmoil, surging energy prices, and fragile supply chains rather than excess demand. Central banks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have kept interest rates steady,...
Iran War Fuels Energy Shock, Raising Fed Rate Uncertainty as Analysts Warn of Delays or Hikes
The Iran war has driven diesel prices up 56%, inflating the U.S. trucking fuel bill from $155 billion to $250 billion and triggering a 14‑point swing in earnings‑estimate revisions. Analysts say the energy shock could force the Federal Reserve to postpone rate...
Malaysia Raises EV Tariffs, Sets $70,000 Floor to Shield Proton and Perodua
Malaysia's Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry announced on May 2026 that imported electric vehicles will face a new minimum CIF value of RM200,000 (≈$47,000) and a retail floor of about RM300,000 (≈$70,000). The policy, aimed at shielding Proton and...
Oil Rally Lures Shale Independent, but Majors Unswayed
Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel amid Middle East supply disruptions, prompting a mixed response from U.S. producers. Diamondback Energy announced a 3% output lift to over 520,000 barrels per day and plans to add 2‑3 rigs, signaling a...
Why Is China Watching India-Vietnam Relations Carefully
India and Vietnam upgraded their ties to an Enhanced Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, expanding defense cooperation such as submarine training and a possible BrahMos missile transfer. The deeper partnership gives India a strategic foothold in Southeast Asia and the contested South...
Shipping Companies Leverage Arabian Peninsula Truck Routes to Bypass Hormuz
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced shippers to reroute cargo through the newly opened Route 95, linking Saudi Arabia’s Alkwifiriah to Oman via the Ramlet Khelah border crossing. Trade value at the crossing surged to $830 million in March, a...
José Luis Escrivá: Capital Flows, Exchange Rates, and Geopolitics - the Value of Trust in a Changing Global Order
In a BIS speech, José Luis Escrivá warned that the global geoeconomic order is shifting from multilateral cooperation to the use of economic tools as instruments of pressure, while rapid technological change reshapes money and payments. He argued that tariffs...
Global Debt Surges to $353 Trillion, Debt‑to‑GDP Hits 305% Amid Rising Fiscal Strain
The Institute of International Finance’s latest Global Debt Monitor shows total sovereign and corporate debt climbing to $353 trillion, pushing the debt‑to‑GDP ratio to roughly 305%. The surge, driven largely by the United States and China, raises alarms about fiscal sustainability,...
India's Sensex Drops 1,082 Points as Oil Prices Surge and Modi Calls for Austerity
The BSE Sensex slid 1,082 points (about $13.2 bn) and the NSE Nifty fell 309 points as Brent crude breached $105 per barrel and Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged citizens to curb fuel, gold and foreign travel. The sell‑off erased roughly...
Powell’s Final Day Signals Shift to Neutral Policy as New Fed Chair Looms
Jerome Powell will close his tenure as Federal Reserve chair on May 15 with a nine‑word comment that the policy “center is moving toward a more neutral place.” The remark, delivered after an April 29 FOMC meeting that recorded the...
Philip R Lane: Climate Change and Monetary Policy
Philip R. Lane highlighted that 2023‑2025 are the hottest years on record, underscoring accelerating global warming. He noted that climate‑driven extreme events have already shaved more than 20% off global per‑capita GDP since 1960, equivalent to a 0.3% annual growth...
The Peculiar Recent Behavior of Unemployment
The traditional “plucking model” of unemployment—slow declines in expansions and rapid spikes in recessions—has been broken over the past three years. Since 2023 the U.S. unemployment rate has risen gradually from historically low levels without a concurrent recession, a pattern...
China Drives Platinum Surge, Prompting South African Production Boost
China is pulling platinum into the country hard. A major Chinese refiner reports surging physical delivery demand on the new Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum contract. Speculators and industrial users are opting for delivery rather than closing shorts, capturing the premium over...
Trump's Blunder Reveals US Can't Secure Oil, Boosts Iran
I've said for a long time that the cost and risk of using fossil fuels would eventually start driving importing nations to renewable energy and EVs. What I didn't count on was Trump proving decisively that US "world's policeman" military...
China’s Consumer Prices Rise on Iran War Oil Squeeze
China’s consumer price index rose 1.2% year‑on‑year in April, spurred by higher international crude prices and a pre‑May‑Day travel surge. Domestic gas prices surged 19.3% on the same basis, while the producer price index jumped 2.8% YoY, the fastest rise...
College Tuition Outpaces Inflation by Threefold
College tuition is up 672% over the last 40 years. Overall inflation? +198%. This isn’t normal. This isn’t sustainable. This isn’t a good thing. https://t.co/PGwigPNTS1
U.S. Dominates Global Debt System, No Exceptions
The US controls the global debt & finance system No one gets a pass on that @Lucaswb8928 Not China, not other BRICS NADIE https://t.co/QCGQBxGGCF
Joachim Nagel: Structural Challenges for the German Economy
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned that Germany’s economy is confronting deep‑seated structural challenges. Growth has been tepid since the late 2010s, and a loss of competitiveness has driven a sharp decline in export market share. Around three‑quarters of that decline...
IMF Model Shows Yuan Undervalued About 25‑30%
With a realistic current account surplus number (one that takes out the 22 downward adjustment in the goods surplus and uses a realistic estimate of the income balance), the IMF's model would suggest a 25-30% undervaluation
Tariff Revenues Plunge 30% as Imports Rise 7%
Tariff revenues are down over 30% since October despite import volumes rising 7%. The Trump-Xi meetings carry much lower stakes this year than last. Read this week's Scouting the Tape below for more. https://t.co/E2nzNSJ6uM
‘Significant Migration’ of USWC Imports to Canadian Ports, Says Sea-Intelligence
North‑west Pacific container traffic is shifting north, with Canadian ports capturing market share as U.S. west‑coast gateways see volume declines. In Q1 2026, Prince Rupert and Vancouver posted 7.8% and 9% import growth respectively, while the Northwest Seaport Alliance plunged 18%....
Hormuz Sovereignty Never a Pre‑war Issue, Now Contested
It cannot be stressed hard enough that Hormuz sovereignty was never a sticking point prior to the war. This is the reality that was shattered, and we aren't going back. Iran threatened the Strait plenty, but it was always largely bluster and...
Unseen Union Breakup Mirrors Brexit, Unconscious US Split
The more I think about it the more this resembles a Brexit type situation. Except, it's a defection from a union that most people weren't even aware they were in. A kind of unconscious uncoupling from America. https://t.co/eqPaPPinTW
Latam Producers Take Strait Shot at Investment
At the Offshore Technology Conference, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina – Latin America’s fastest‑growing crude producers – emphasized that their non‑strait exports provide a secure alternative amid the Middle‑East war. Combined output now tops 6 million barrels per day, dwarfing Venezuela and...
Equity Risk Premiums Hit Pre‑GFC Lows; Bonds Gain Appeal
APAC ex Japan's equity risk premium sinks to the lowest since right before the GFC $VPL $EEM Same with Europe $VGK ... bonds increasingly attractive vs stocks https://t.co/9RoQNv3ref
Oil Shifts From Inflation Gauge to Geopolitical Fragility Signal
Higher oil prices used to signal market tightness Now they signal system disorder Oil is evolving from an inflation-growth indicator to a geopolitical fragility indicator #OilMarkets #WTI #OVX #Volatility #Energy #Geopolitics #IranWar #UkraineWar #Commodities #Macro #SystemicRisk #TrumpTariffs
APR Among Industry Organizations to Speak at USTR Hearing
The Association of Plastic Recyclers (APR) testified before the USTR, warning that a flood of low‑priced PET imports has forced seven U.S. recyclers to shut down, eroding roughly 25% of domestic capacity in the past 15 months. APR highlighted dramatic...
USDA Confirms 380k Tons to Mexico, 128k to South Korea
USDA confirms the following U.S. corn export sales: ▪️380,000 metric tons to Mexico (220kt in 2025/26 and 160kt in 2026/27) ▪️128,000 tons to South Korea in 2025/26
China’s New Swagger in EU Trade War Explained
Thanks to the AMAZING @fbermingham for explaining how China got that swagger to fight its trade war with the European Union, and what Brussels is doing about it. https://t.co/mkXPVVokbU
ITL: Key Highlights From the Moody's Report on Mauritius
Moody’s reaffirmed Mauritius’ investment‑grade rating on 4 May 2026, highlighting a sharp fiscal turnaround. The fiscal deficit narrowed to roughly 5.5% of GDP, down from 9.3% a year earlier, while central‑government revenue grew 7.8% year‑on‑year, driven by a 15.8% jump in income‑tax...
Yield vs Oil: Diverging Trends on 3-Day Tick Chart
3-day tick chart ... * White (right scale), U.S. 10-year yield * Blue (left scale), June WTI Crude Oil Futures What is the difference? https://t.co/nwUGdEL9j4
US Rejects Iran Counter‑Proposal, Dollar Holds Firm
Monday Blues: US Negotiating Tactic or Ceasefire may End: News that the US rejected Iran’s counter-proposal is set the tone for today’s session. The dollar is mostly firmer, though the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone are slightly firmer. Equities are…...
Trump's Beijing Visit Marks First US Presidential Trip in Decade
JUST IN: President Trump to arrive in Beijing on Wednesday, the first time a US President will visit China in nearly a decade
Mexico Delivers Final 15th Rate Cut to 6.50%
Global Central Bank Update: -Mexico cut rates for the 15th time in the cycle with a 25 bps move down to 6.50%. The board stated this will be the final cut in the easing cycle. https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ https://t.co/669sf1Lo6O
Key Trends and Trades Amid Financial Repression Unveiled
The top trends and trades in the wild world of financial repression. Special thanks to @tomkeene and Bloomberg Surveillance - we’ll be on soon. https://t.co/MX5hi33aji