Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
US Clears H200 Chip Sales To 10 China Firms
U.S. Commerce Department has granted export licenses to roughly ten Chinese companies—including Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance and JD.com—to purchase Nvidia's H200 AI chip, the company's second‑most powerful accelerator. Each approved buyer may acquire up to 75,000 units, but no shipments have taken place as Beijing reportedly blocks the orders. Prior to tighter curbs, Nvidia held about 95% of China's advanced chip market, with China accounting for roughly 13% of its revenue. The stalled deals come as CEO Jensen Huang seeks to tap China's $50 billion AI market this year.
Hormuz Oil Flows Creep Higher as More Supertankers Exit
The number of supertankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz has risen, with four VLCCs—each carrying roughly 2 million barrels—departing since May 10, approaching a flow of about 2 million barrels per day. This is a modest increase compared with pre‑war traffic of roughly...
The Myth of the Commodity Shock: Global Money Supply Is Soaring Again
Global money supply is accelerating sharply while productivity, private‑sector growth, and consumer demand remain stagnant, reigniting inflation concerns. The article argues that inflation risk hinges not just on the stock of money but also on its velocity; low velocity today...
EM Fixed Income: Inflation Pressures and Idiosyncratic EMEA EM Politics
In this episode, JPMorgan’s Ben Ramsey, Aneska Kristovova, and Mike Harrison discuss how recent U.S. inflation data and the lingering Iran‑related energy conflict are reshaping risk‑reward dynamics in emerging‑market (EM) fixed income. They note that stronger-than‑expected CPI and PPI numbers...
Donald Trump Meeting with Xi Jinping in China Steadies Oil Markets Amid Fresh Gulf Attacks
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Beijing, calming oil markets as Brent slipped to $105.25 a barrel and WTI to $100.80. The meeting raised hopes for diplomatic progress in the West Asia conflict, but fresh...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Climb To 211,000 As Energy Prices Threaten Stable Labor Market
U.S. initial unemployment claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 211,000 for the week ending May 9, surpassing the Reuters forecast of 205,000. Continuing claims also increased, reaching 1.782 million, a proxy for hiring trends. The surge coincides with higher energy and commodity...
Qatar Boosts Economic Resilience with LNG Expansion and Global Investment Push
Qatar is strengthening its economic resilience by raising North Field LNG output to 126 million tonnes per year and accelerating overseas investments through the Qatar Investment Authority, targeting technology assets in the United States, Europe and Asia. Analysts say the sovereign...
Yen Slides to 157.9 per Dollar as Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise
The Japanese yen weakened to around 157.9 per U.S. dollar, extending a three‑day decline driven by stronger inflation data and rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike. The move kept the dollar index near a weekly high of 98.5...
Inversion Signals Recession, yet Fed‑driven, Not Deflationary
10Y Treasury Yield−3M Treasury Bill Yield A deep inversion followed by re-steepening has historically been one of the best recession warning signals. But this cycle was driven primarily by extreme short-rate tightening from the Fed, not by a collapse in long-term inflation...
Iran Escorts Flotilla of Chinese Ships Through Strait of Hormuz as Xi Meets Trump
Iran’s navy escorted a flotilla of Chinese tankers through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday night, coinciding with the high‑profile U.S.–China summit in Beijing. The move follows Tehran’s recent attack on a China‑linked vessel and the seizure of another, suggesting...
US Import and Export Prices Jump Most Since 2022 on Fuel Costs
In April 2026 the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said the import price index rose 1.9% and the export price index jumped 3.3% from the prior month, the steepest gains since early 2022. The surge was driven by a 19%...
Inflation Surge Sends Dow Crashing While S&P Holds, Raising Large‑Cap Concerns
U.S. core CPI jumped 0.4% month‑over‑month to 2.8% year‑over‑year, prompting the Dow Jones Industrial Average to tumble 277 points while the S&P 500 edged higher. Analysts warn the surge could test the resilience of large‑cap stocks that have lingered near...
UAE Leaves OPEC, Redrawing Oil‑Market Power and West Asia Security
The United Arab Emirates announced its exit from OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance, ending its adherence to collective output limits. The move gives Abu Dhabi the freedom to boost production, but it also threatens price stability and adds a new...
US Dollar Hits Near‑Week High as CPI Surprises and Fed Hike Odds Rise
The greenback surged to a one‑week high after April CPI jumped 3.8% YoY and PPI rose 6% YoY, reviving bets that the Federal Reserve will raise rates later this year. The rally lifted the US Dollar Index to 98.53 and...
Philippine Sovereign Bonds Extend Slump as Traders Bet on 50‑bp Rate Hike
Philippine sovereign bonds continued to fall on May 13, 2026, as market participants priced in a 50‑basis‑point rate hike – the biggest since 2023 – following the fastest inflation rise in three years. The sell‑off lifted three‑month peso swaps to...
U.S. Inflation Spikes to 3.8% in April, Stoking Fresh Fed Policy Worries
U.S. consumer price inflation accelerated to 3.8% year‑over‑year in April, the fastest rise in three years, intensifying debate over the Federal Reserve’s next move. The surge has already rattled equity markets, pressured the rupee and sparked a wave of commentary...
Faisal Islam: Six Things We Now Know About the UK Economy in Charts
The UK economy posted a 0.6% quarterly GDP gain in Q1, outpacing its G7 peers and defying IMF warnings that the country would be the hardest‑hit by the Iran‑related war shock. Per‑capita growth was the strongest in four years, reflecting...
World Markets Rise on Trump-Xi Summit Hopes
President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Beijing, pledging to keep the Strait of Hormuz open amid the third month of the Iran war. The assurance helped lift global equity markets, with European indices gaining and US...
Fed Speakers Dominate Thursday Amid Soft Retail Data
Economic Calendar for Thurs. May 14 8:30am - Retail sales m/m for April: Expected 0.5%; Prior 1.7% - Initial jobless claims: Expected 205k; Prior 200k - Import prices m/m for April: Expected 1%; Prior 0.8% - Export prices m/m for April: Expected 1.1%; Prior 1.6% 10:00 - Business inventories m/m...
Venezuela Embarks on $150 Billion Restructuring of Debt Amid Political Turmoil
Venezuela announced a $150 billion restructuring of its sovereign and PDVSA debt, the first major debt‑relief effort since the 2017 default. The plan follows the U.S. capture and indictment of President Nicolás Maduro, the lifting of sanctions by the Trump administration,...
Albanese Faces New Push to Sanction Russia’s Shadow Timber Trade
Timber NSW, the peak body for New South Wales hardwood producers, lodged a submission to a Senate inquiry urging the Albanese government to expand its autonomous sanctions to cover all timber and timber products sourced directly or indirectly from Russia....
Wells Fargo Investment Institute Warns that US Debt Trajectory Is Serious, but Not a Crisis Yet
Wells Fargo Investment Institute warns that the U.S. federal debt could climb to 175% of GDP by 2050 if Congress does not act, with the debt‑to‑GDP ratio already projected to hit 101% in 2026. About $15 trillion of publicly held Treasury...
Ken Griffin Warns of 3.8% Inflation and Strong Jobs Data, Flags Portfolio Shifts on CNBC
Citadel founder Ken Griffin told CNBC that a surprisingly strong April jobs report and a 3.8% consumer‑price index could push the Federal Reserve toward higher rates. He warned that the macro backdrop will shape Citadel’s asset allocation, from rate‑sensitive equities...
Bessent's "Suffocating" Iranian Regime Strategy Materializes In Kharg Island Satellite Imagery
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s warning that the United States is "suffocating" Iran’s regime is now visible in satellite data. European imagery shows Kharg Island, Iran’s primary crude export hub, completely empty of ocean‑going tankers on May 8, 9 and 11, marking the longest...
ECB Set to Raise Rates in June, Poll Predicts Further Hike Amid War‑Driven Inflation
A Reuters poll of economists indicates the European Central Bank will raise its key interest rate in June and is expected to implement at least one more hike as war‑driven inflation spikes. The forecast tightens monetary policy expectations and puts...
Rare Earths Are on Trump’s Agenda in China. But US Electronic Waste Offers an Untapped Source at Home
The United States remains heavily dependent on China for rare earth minerals and permanent magnets, a vulnerability highlighted during President Trump’s recent talks with President Xi. The Department of Energy projects demand for neodymium magnets could reach 37,000 tonnes by 2030,...
Chinese Yuan Hits 3‑Year High as Trump‑Xi Summit Begins
The Chinese onshore yuan surged to 6.79 per dollar, a three‑year peak, on the first day of the Trump‑Xi summit. The move, driven by trade‑surplus strength and expectations of smoother U.S.–China ties, revives debate over the yuan’s role versus the...
UK GDP Grows 0.6% in Q1 2026, Defying Forecasts Amid Global Uncertainty
The Office for National Statistics reported that the United Kingdom's gross domestic product rose 0.6% in the first three months of 2026, outpacing analysts' forecasts. The modest gain marks the first quarterly expansion for a major advanced economy this year,...
Trump and Xi Talk - Markets Wait
The episode covers President Trump's Beijing meeting with Xi, noting the diplomatic warmth but lack of concrete trade announcements, and highlighting Trump's delegation of CEOs focused on economic and tech issues. It then shifts to U.S. inflation data, with producer...
Mo Ibrahim: Africa Loses $5bn in Currency Conversion Costs Yearly
A Mo Ibrahim Foundation report estimates Africa loses roughly $5 billion each year to currency‑conversion fees, a hidden cost that inflates intra‑continental trade expenses. The expense compounds existing non‑tariff barriers and slows progress toward the African Continental Free Trade Area’s target of...
Xi Jinping Vows to 'Open Door Wider' To US Firms During Trump Visit
President Xi Jinping used Donald Trump’s state visit to Beijing to promise broader market access for U.S. firms, positioning China as an open destination for foreign investment amid slowing growth. He emphasized that China‑U.S. economic ties are mutually beneficial and...
UK Economy Grows Despite Iran Conflict and PM’s Woes
The UK’s economy expanded 0.6% in Q1 2026, with a 0.3% monthly gain in March, defying expectations that the US‑Iran conflict would stall growth. Both services (+0.3%) and output (+1.5%) rose, even as production slipped 0.2%. Global HR firm Adecco reported...
More Defence Spending Is Good for the Economy
A new EU‑wide analysis of defence contracts from 2009‑2023 finds that a 1 % of GDP increase in defence spending generates a cumulative 2 % boost in GDP over the next five years. The study links the spending surge to higher capital...
Hormuz Oil Flows Fell Nearly 30% Last Quarter
U.S. Energy Information Administration data show that daily oil and fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell to about 14.6 million barrels in Q1 2026, a near‑30 percent drop from a year earlier. The decline follows the onset of the war...
Treasury Sells $25bn 30-Year Bonds at 5.0% Yield
From the Financial Times: "The Treasury department issued $25bn of new 30-year bonds on Wednesday, with the high yield at auction reaching 5.046 per cent." #economy #markets #debt #bonds #ust @financialtimes
U.S. and China Agree to Ban Shipping Toll Fees in Strait of Hormuz
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi agreed that no nation may levy tolls on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The pact, announced ahead of a Trump‑Xi summit, aims to preserve the waterway that...
Trump, Xi to Discuss $30 B Tariff Cuts, $11 B Taiwan Arms Deal as Oil Prices Slip
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to meet in Beijing to negotiate a $30 billion tariff‑reduction framework and an $11 billion weapons sale to Taiwan, while oil markets react to the Iran‑related Strait of Hormuz standoff. The...
Ways Tariffs Are Affecting Business: Learn to Manage Pressures
Tariff volatility and expanding trade regulations are forcing industrial manufacturers to embed compliance into early product design, turning duty exposure into a strategic decision point. SKU‑level classification errors now pose significant margin risks, especially for fastener suppliers with thousands of...
Fed Quietly Resumed QE, Adding $200B to Balance Sheet
An under appreciated regime change is that the Federal Reserve quietly restarted Quantitative Easing (QE) in December by expanding its balance sheet. The Fed accumulates bonds, soaking up bonds that would otherwise go to the open market reducing money supply. ~$200B increase...
US Trade Inflation Hits Highest Since 2022, Fuel Drives Surge
The US import and export inflation data for April crossed the wires this morning. Biggest monthly increase in both since March 2022 - the initial charge of the global pandemic. Naturally, heavily fuel imports (+16.3%) and non-fuel only +0.8% https://t.co/V7WhLVHyIY
Morning Brief Podcast: Can Modi Halt India’s Gold Rush?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged Indians to curb gold purchases, prompting an immediate dip in consumer demand. The appeal coincided with scrutiny of India’s massive gold‑loan sector, which totals roughly ₹16 lakh crore (about $193 billion). Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India flagged...
U.S. Job Market Remains Inflationary as Wage Growth Accelerates
New at THE OVERSHOOT: The U.S. Job Market is (Still) Inflationary https://t.co/KpTd2X6fNG Wage growth is now accelerating slightly, supporting the quickening of "supercore" service price increases. Plus: more on the health care wage slowdown mystery. https://t.co/pBeutaTLhh
Eurozone Q1 GDP Grows 0.1% as US Export Outlook Gets Modest Lift
Eurostat data released Wednesday showed the euro area economy expanded 0.1% in the first quarter, slowing from the 0.2% gain in the previous quarter and bringing annual growth down to 0.8%. The modest rebound eases concerns about a deeper slowdown...
30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.03% as S&P 500 Recovers From Intraday Lows
Treasury yields surged on Tuesday, with the 30‑year benchmark closing at 5.03%—its highest level since May 2025—while the S&P 500 clawed back roughly 1% of its intraday losses. The rebound was anchored by gamma positioning in the 7340‑7350 range and...
Asia’s Tech Boom Clashes With Oil‑Price Surge, Raising Global Risks
Asia is experiencing a stark split as tech‑driven economies post record profits and all‑time stock highs while an oil‑price shock driven by the Iran war pushes energy costs to four‑year highs, threatening growth in energy‑dependent nations.
Interest Decline Eases State Payment Burden
Thailand’s finance ministry says the declining interest‑rate environment is pulling the government’s interest‑payment burden down to about 10.2% of revenue, comfortably under the 12% threshold set by rating agencies. The government has secured a 400 billion baht ($11.2 bn) emergency loan, with...
Gold Fluctuates as Market Weighs Federal Reserve Rate Path
Gold prices swung between a 0.6% gain and a 0.5% loss as investors digested fresh U.S. data showing a war‑driven surge in inflation. The bullion settled near $4,685 an ounce, reflecting heightened uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s future rate path....
Tariffs: Revenue Tool and Self‑Sufficiency Strategy
While there’s a lot being written about the Supreme Court decisions on tariffs, I wanted to take a moment to step back and clearly lay out my thoughts on them. Many people think of tariffs as purely disruptive, but throughout history,...
New Fed Chair Spurs Historically Stable S&P Rally
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair in a tight 54–45 vote, the narrowest ever. S&P 500 on average, tops on day 33 and bottoms on day 76 after a new Chair. 3 month median max drawdown was just 2.13%.
From Hormuz to Farms and Food, a Crisis Is Looming – by Terence Corcoran (Financial Post – May 13, 2026)
At the Milken Institute Global Conference, ICC Secretary General John Denton warned that the ongoing blockage of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will soon cripple global fertilizer supplies, creating a severe food‑security shock. The disruption threatens to push...