Today's Global Economy Pulse
US‑Iran deal ends 100‑day Hormuz closure, oil markets stay calm
The United States and Iran announced an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ending a 100‑day shutdown. Oil prices fell modestly after the announcement, and analysts warn that full energy‑supply recovery may still take months.
Vanguard Warns Investors of Iran Conflict‑Driven Oil Spike, Citing Calm Trading Amid 9% S&P Drop
Vanguard, which oversees roughly $12 trillion in assets, issued a market‑risk alert linking the U.S.–Israel–Iran confrontation to a near‑$120‑a‑barrel Brent price and a 9% slide in the S&P 500. The firm’s data show only 14% of individual investors traded during the six‑week flare‑up, and those who did were net equity buyers at a 4‑to‑1 ratio.
Commodity Trends Still Drive Inflation, Threaten Valuations
We know that inflation is less driven by commodity prices than in the past, but the chart below shows that goods inflation still matters. When the 5-year CAGR of the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index is consistently above the 5-year inflation...
Swedish GDP Contracts 0.2% in Q1, $800 M Trade Deficit Deepens Euro‑zone Recession
Sweden reported a 0.2% sequential drop in Q1 GDP, the first contraction since Q2 2025, while its trade balance turned to a SEK 7.3 billion ($800 million) deficit in April. The data confirm a recession and raise concerns for Euro‑zone equities and risk appetite.
Ghana’s Cedi Jumps 40.7% as Inflation Falls to 3.4% Under IMF‑backed Reforms
Ghana’s finance minister announced that inflation fell from 23.8% in December 2024 to 3.4% in April 2026 and the cedi strengthened by 40.7% against the dollar in 2025. The turnaround follows a suite of fiscal and monetary measures tied to...
China Extends Zero‑Tariff Access to Niger, Deepening Oil‑Centric Ties
China has broadened its zero‑tariff regime to cover imports from Niger, joining 52 other African partners. The move underpins a $5 billion Chinese investment in Niger’s oil sector and a $2 billion export pipeline, tightening Beijing’s leverage as the junta seeks fiscal...
Trade Turnover in Eurasian Economic Union Exceeds €80 Billion Last Year
At a summit in Astana, Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) leaders reported that intra‑union trade more than doubled last year, reaching over €80 billion (about $86 billion). Trade with third‑party countries grew 72%, and officials forecast turnover to surpass €85 billion ($92 billion) this year,...
2026 Market Outlook: Global Macro Trends Revealed
Here's my recent interview with @pompglobal to discuss the global macro picture and where we see markets going in 2026. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfO3dnvmldM&t=65s
Premium Macro Week Review & Preview: May 29 Highlights
Premium Users - Macro Week in Review/Preview May 29, 2026, on the blog and here https://t.co/FpDusPrJXF
Where to Find Business Cycle Chronologies for Countries
The post compiles a curated list of business‑cycle chronologies for major economies and cross‑country aggregates, linking to sources such as the NBER (U.S.), CEPR/EABCN (Euro area), national statistical offices, and private institutes like ECRI and the Conference Board. It notes...
The Myth of an Independent Fed
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host David Bonson examines the myth of an independent Federal Reserve, using the recent appointment of Kevin Warsh as a lens. He explains how the Fed’s legal framework—created by Congress in 1913 and shaped...
How Have Interest Rate Expectations Changed After This Week's Event?
Optimism around a potential US‑Iran diplomatic breakthrough sparked a sharp drop in oil prices, prompting a dovish shift in interest‑rate expectations for most central banks. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is now seen with zero hikes for the rest...
Oil Prices Fall on Hopes of Strait of Hormuz Reopening
Oil prices retreated on Tuesday as traders priced in the likely reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global petroleum flows. Brent crude fell about 2% to $84 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped roughly...
India Pilots Digital Rupee for Aid Distribution, Cross-Border Payments
India’s Reserve Bank is testing the digital rupee as a tool for welfare payments, piloting food‑benefit disbursements that leverage the currency’s instant settlement and programmable features. The RBI also announced cross‑border pilots with Singapore and the United Arab Emirates to...
Gold Stays Above $4,500 as US‑Iran Ceasefire Hopes Boost Commodity Options
Gold held firm above $4,500 an ounce on Friday, buoyed by optimism over a 60‑day US‑Iran cease‑fire extension and weaker US GDP and inflation data. The price stability is prompting heightened activity in gold futures and options contracts as traders...
Finland Q1 GDP Grows 0.9% Sequentially, Boosting Euro‑Area Investor Sentiment
Finland's economy expanded 0.9% sequentially in the March quarter, matching flash data and outpacing the 0.3% growth recorded in Q4 2025. The data, released by Statistics Finland, reinforces a positive outlook for Finnish equities and broader Euro‑area stocks.
Japan's Industrial Output Jumps 0.8% in April, Defying Forecasts
Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry reported a 0.8% month‑on‑month rise in industrial output for April, outpacing forecasts for a 0.4% drop and delivering a 2.3% increase from a year earlier. The surprise gain offers a hopeful signal for...
ECB’s Stournaras Flags Likely June Rate Hike, Calls for Careful Policy Tightening
ECB governing council member and Bank of Greece governor Yannis Stournaras told Greek newspaper Kathimerini that a June interest‑rate hike is now highly likely and that the central bank must adjust policy carefully to avoid second‑round inflation effects. The comment...
Better Week in Review
During the holiday‑shortened week, U.S. consumer confidence slipped slightly in May, with two‑thirds of respondents cutting back on spending as prices stay high. The S&P Cotality Case‑Shiller national home‑price index posted a modest 0.7% year‑over‑year gain, underscoring persistent affordability challenges....
Central Banking in an Age of Global Supply Shocks
Central banks' long‑standing inflation‑targeting framework is increasingly misaligned with a world marked by recurring supply‑side shocks and geopolitical fragmentation. Recent bond market data underscore this mismatch: the 30‑year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 5.2%, the German 10‑year Bund hit a...
Fed's Bowman Willing to Look Through War-Driven Inflation Bump
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman told an Iceland conference that the recent inflation spike, driven by higher energy prices and one‑off tariff effects from the Iran war, should be looked through. She emphasized using trimmed‑mean PCE rather than headline...
Fed’s Bowman Says Too Soon to Judge Inflation Impact of Iran War
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman warned that it is too early to assess the inflationary fallout from the U.S. war in Iran, urging policymakers to look through temporary energy‑price spikes. She backed the Fed’s decision to keep rate‑cut language...
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman Warns Against Hiking Interest Rates because of Inflation Spike
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman warned that raising interest rates to counter a brief surge in energy‑driven inflation would be premature. She noted that April’s PCE price index jumped 3.8% while core PCE eased to 3.3%, and the Dallas Fed’s...
Velocity of Money: A US-India Comparison
The Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) blog compares money velocity in the United States and India from 2004 to 2019. In 2004 the U.S. dollar circulated about 2.6 times per period, roughly twice the 1.3 times for the Indian rupee....
Dollar’s Monthly Rise Leaves Strategists Wary of More Gains
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.7% in May, putting the greenback on track for its fourth monthly gain since the 2025 downtrend began. Investors are increasing bets that the Federal Reserve will lift rates by early 2027, which heightens...
Fed's Paulson Says Healthy for Markets to Shift to Tighter Monetary Policy Outlook
Fed Governor Lisa Paulson said the central bank’s policy is now mildly restrictive and well‑positioned to bring inflation back toward target. She noted that inflation remains too high despite a slowdown in economic activity and that the labor market remains...
Predicted Oil Stability and Iran Blockade—Proved Right
This is my discussion on March 19 with @paulkrugman where I argued: (i) oil prices wouldn't rise much more because Strait of Hormuz disruption was priced; (ii) the US needed to blockade Iran, which happened on April 13. My views...
US‑Iran Cease‑fire Extension Sends Dollar Down 0.3% and Boosts Rupee
The United States and Iran reached a tentative agreement to extend their cease‑fire by 60 days, easing geopolitical risk. The news knocked the U.S. dollar about 0.3% lower against a basket of majors and nudged the Indian rupee up five...
Fed's Bowman Says Progress on Lowering Inflation Has Stalled
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said the Fed can look through a temporary energy‑price shock from the Middle East conflict as long as it maintains credibility on monetary policy. She noted that progress in lowering inflation has stalled, raising concerns...
Middle East Tensions Spike Oil, Drag US Futures Lower
U.S. forces’ airstrike on an Iranian site and Iran’s retaliatory missile launch pushed crude oil higher, lifting energy shares but pulling S&P futures 0.2% lower. Bond yields climbed to 4.50% as investors brace for higher inflation amid the flare‑up.
Equities Celebrate, Bonds Warn: Bitcoin Bets on the Interest-Rate Reality
Equity markets stay buoyant thanks to an AI‑driven rally, while bond markets warn of higher inflation as the Strait of Hormuz blockade pushes oil and helium prices up. Investors are shifting from expectations of rate cuts to the possibility of...
Taiwan Raises 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to 9.64%, a High in 16 Years
Taiwan’s Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics lifted its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 9.64%, a 1.93‑point jump and the strongest annual pace since 2010. The upgrade follows a 14.55% first‑quarter surge, the fastest in 48 years, and reflects...
Japan Spends Record 11.73 Tril. Yen in April-May to Stem Yen's Slide
Japan’s finance ministry confirmed a record ¥11.73 trillion ($74 billion) was spent on foreign‑exchange intervention between April 28 and early May, aiming to curb the yen’s slide amid heightened geopolitical risk. The outflow eclipsed the previous monthly high of ¥9.79 trillion set during a...
Canada Entered a Technical Recession in Q1
Canada has entered a technical recession after two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Q1 GDP was flat at 0.0% annualized, following a 0.1% decline in Q4, as a 2.9% surge in imports outweighed modest export weakness. Business capital investment...
Canada Q1 GDP -0.1% vs +1.5% Expected
Canada’s real GDP showed no growth in Q1 2026, missing the 1.5% expansion forecast and marking a flat quarter after a 0.2% decline in Q4 2025. The stagnation stemmed from higher imports—particularly gold—offsetting inventory accumulation, while reduced business and government...
Bombing the Middle East Hurts Rate‑cut Hopes
"If what you want is rate cuts, here's the thing you don't do. You don't go and bomb a country in the Middle East upsetting global energy markets and pushing prices up across the board." https://t.co/EX3rQJlWlo
Headline Inflation Eases While Core Prices Stay Sticky
Good Morning from Germany, where headline inflation slowed to 2.6% YoY in May from 2.9% in April, helped by the fuel-tax rebate. But the rise in core inflation to 2.5% from 2.3% shows that underlying price pressures remain stubborn. Disinflation...
What’s Behind the EU-Mexico Trade Deal?
Mexico and the European Union signed an expanded free‑trade agreement that adds services, farm produce, and investment protections to the original industrial‑goods pact. The EU pledged about $5.8 billion in investments aligned with President Claudia Sheinbaum’s Plan Mexico. The deal arrives as...
German Inflation Dropped in May Amid State Measures to Cut Gasoline Prices
German headline inflation fell to 2.6% year‑on‑year in May, down from 2.9% in April, while core and services inflation rose back to pre‑war levels. The decline was driven by a government fuel‑tax rebate of roughly €0.17 per litre, which also...
All Things US Trade with Jeffrey J. Schott
Jeffrey J. Schott, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, joined Insider LIVE to discuss the latest U.S. trade developments. The conversation covered the ongoing review of the United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement, evolving trade dynamics with South Korea, and Schott’s...
GOLD VS. THE MONEY PRINTER: Why the Recent Breakout Is Just a Catch-Up to 2011, Why the 1980 Ratio Implies...
The article argues that gold’s recent price breakout is not a speculative rally but a catch‑up to the massive expansion of the U.S. M2 money supply since 2011. By comparing gold to M2, the author shows that the metal has...
USD/JPY: Largest Quarterly Intervention Since 2004
Japan’s Ministry of Finance confirmed the Bank of Japan intervened ¥11.735 trillion (≈$76 bn) in the April‑May quarter, the biggest single‑quarter FX action since 2004. The buying pressure drove USD/JPY from above 160 to below 156 within a few sessions. Analysts note...
China’s Industrial Asset Base Hits $28 Trillion, Reinforcing Its Global Manufacturing Clout
China’s industrial asset portfolio topped $28 trillion at the close of April 2026, according to Trend.az. The valuation highlights the sheer size of China’s manufacturing and infrastructure holdings and signals continued influence over global production networks.
Renewed US‑Iran Strikes Push Oil to $92 a Barrel, Threaten Hormuz Supply
Renewed airstrikes between the United States and Iran have effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, sending West Texas Intermediate crude up 4% to $92 a barrel and Brent to $97. Executives at Chevron and the UAE’s ADNOc, along with the...
US 10‑Year Treasury Yield Tops 4.5% Amid Renewed US‑Iran Tensions
The benchmark 10‑year Treasury yield breached the 4.5% mark on Thursday as fresh U.S. strikes on an Iranian military site reignited geopolitical risk. Oil prices rose, inflation data stayed sticky and investors priced a roughly 50% chance of a Fed...
April PCE Miss Fuels Mixed US Stock Outlook as Treasury Yields Edge Higher
Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.2% month‑over‑month and 3.3% year‑over‑year in April, while headline PCE climbed 0.4% MoM and 3.8% YoY, slightly below forecasts. The data nudged the S&P 500 and Nasdaq flat, lifted 10‑year Treasury yields to 4.48%,...
Bank of England’s Bailey Says Allowing Inflation to Run Above Target Is Appropriate
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said the central bank will tolerate inflation running above its 2 percent target because of uncertainty from the Iran war and weak growth. He cautioned that this tolerance could tighten if second‑round price pressures emerge....
Canada’s Push to Diversify Trade Away From U.S. Seeing Mixed Results: Report
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report shows that export diversification away from the United States is progressing unevenly. Calgary and Ottawa‑Gatineau posted the strongest gains, each expanding non‑U.S. exports by roughly 64% in 2025, while the nation’s overall non‑U.S. export...
Markets Bet on an Iran Deal
The episode examines the market's reaction to a potential US‑Iran deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil prices toward their steepest weekly decline in two months. It also discusses how lingering energy disruptions may keep US inflation...
OCBC Targets China-ASEAN Trade Flows
OCBC has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Singapore Chinese Chamber of Commerce & Industry and the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products. The partnership aligns with OCBC’s "Asia Shift" pillar of...
The MPC's Remit and Trade-Off Management
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) operates under a flexible inflation‑targeting remit that prioritises low, stable inflation while allowing temporary output volatility. By formalising a loss function that weights deviations of inflation and the output gap, the MPC...