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Iran war spikes fuel prices and drives inflation to four‑year highs
The conflict in Iran has pushed global fuel prices sharply higher, lifting U.S. gasoline costs by 21% and triggering the steepest inflation increase in nearly four years. Consumer confidence in the United States and Canada has fallen to record lows as households brace for persistent price pressures. Saudi Arabia’s oil throughput dropped by 700,000 barrels per day after a pipeline incident.
Award‑winning political cartoonist Michael de Adder contributed a guest post titled “Both Sides Win,” featuring a new cartoon that pits an Iranian cleric offering control of the Strait of Hormuz against a triumphant Donald Trump clutching a trophy. The piece highlights de Adder’s recent firing over Trump‑related work and his migration to Substack for independent publishing. The cartoon satirizes U.S.–Iran tensions by suggesting a peace‑prize narrative that benefits both sides. The post serves as a reminder of how editorial cartoons continue to provoke debate in a fragmented media environment.
Emerging‑market equities have finally outpaced U.S. stocks, delivering their widest performance gap in years after a decade‑plus of under‑performance. The Wealth Enterprise Briefing attributes the shift to stronger balance sheets, improved profitability and accelerating earnings momentum. The composition of the...
The International Monetary Fund said it will trim its global growth outlook in the upcoming World Economic Outlook because the war in Iran has created a severe energy supply shock. The conflict has damaged key Gulf infrastructure, including Qatar’s Ras Laffan...
Wood Mackenzie forecasts gas turbine prices to soar to $600 per kilowatt by the end of 2027, a 195% jump from 2019 levels. The surge is driven by specialized labor shortages, hot‑section component bottlenecks, and trade‑related cost pressures, compounded by...
The latest data - out today - show gold holdings by Turkey's central bank falling a further 8 tons in the week to April 3. This brings the total drop to 128 tons since depreciation pressure on the Lira peg...
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese arrived in Singapore ahead of schedule to discuss fuel security with Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. The leaders will focus on ensuring uninterrupted supplies of petrol, diesel and LNG amid a regional fuel crunch sparked...
The long‑standing dispute over toll collection in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, with shipping firms and governments still lacking a unified fee framework. Chinese analysts have floated two novel ideas: tying toll rates directly to global oil prices and...
A year after the “Liberation Day” tariffs imposed a 10% duty on most imports, packaging costs have surged, with some items jumping from $0.80 to $3 each. The Trump administration’s partial rollback on steel, aluminum and copper has left high...
Once again, the UK financial markets are dominated by the “high beta” character of government bonds. (Please see Bloomberg data below.) This isn't just about rate volatility in the national benchmark; it’s also about how that volatility undermines market liquidity, complicates...
On Feb 28, simultaneous shutdowns of the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea cut oil transit by 86% and halted major carrier services, exposing the fragility of a maritime‑centric trade system. The disruption accelerated growth of the Middle Corridor –...
The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index held at a 3% annual rate in February, while headline inflation ticked up to 2.8%, both in line with expectations. Consumer spending rose 0.5% month‑over‑month, but personal income slipped 0.1%, underscoring mixed...
British Airways will permanently drop Jeddah and trim its Middle East schedule, limiting Dubai, Doha and Tel Aviv to one daily flight from July 1 and cutting Riyadh to one flight from mid‑May. The airline will redeploy aircraft to add daily services...
The escalation of the Middle East conflict effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, sending the TD3C benchmark to historic highs and briefly pushing Worldscale rates above 600, equivalent to over $600,000 per day. While much of the surge reflected risk...
The United States and India first outlined a bilateral trade framework in February 2026, promising to slash reciprocal tariffs on industrial goods and lower duties on U.S. agricultural products. Momentum stalled when the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated the reciprocal‑tariff mechanism,...
India’s northeastern state of Meghalaya is accelerating a suite of hydropower projects on the Myntdu and Kynshi rivers, including the 210 MW Myntdu‑Leshka Stage II and several upstream schemes. The detailed project reports are finished and the state government is seeking central...
The Financial Times reported that a network of banks and financial institutions is facilitating dollar‑denominated payments for Iran, effectively laundering sanctions‑evading funds. Atlantic Council senior fellow Alisha Chhangani is quoted highlighting how correspondent‑bank relationships and opaque shell entities enable the...
Spain’s foreign minister José Manuel Albares publicly condemned Israel’s airstrikes on Lebanon and the broader war on Iran, labeling them an assault on humanist civilization. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called the conflict reckless, illegal and urged the EU to scrap...
EU officials warned that sanctions against Israel are back on the table after Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon killed roughly 200 people. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will convene emergency talks with her 26 commissioners, and the EU could suspend the EU‑Israel...
India’s doctrine of strategic autonomy—balancing ties with Israel and Iran—faces a test as the Iran‑U.S./Israel conflict escalates. New Delhi has offered vague calls for de‑escalation while refraining from condemning recent Israeli airstrikes, prompting doubts about its reliability. The ambiguity threatens...
Indian plastic converters are facing sharply higher feedstock costs as the US‑Iran ceasefire fails to ease supply constraints. Polypropylene raffia prices have jumped 49% to $1,300‑$1,400 per ton and low‑density polyethylene is up 54% to $1,600‑$1,700 per ton since late...
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the Iran war will leave a permanent scar on the global economy, even if a durable peace is achieved. The conflict forced the IMF to downgrade its 2026 global growth outlook...
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the ongoing US‑Israel‑Iran conflict will trigger widespread fuel shortages, heightened hunger and an inflation spiral, leaving lasting scarring effects on the global economy. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are expected...
The war in the Middle East has sharply curtailed oil and fertilizer shipments, driving diesel prices in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta to double and depleting fertilizer stocks to a fraction of normal levels. Rice mills have halted operations and barges sit...
President Donald Trump announced via Truth Social an immediate 50% tariff on goods from any nation supplying military weapons to Iran. The White House has not released formal documentation, leaving the legal authority unclear after the Supreme Court recently blocked...
Barry Eichengreen argues that the United States is losing its status as the world’s primary currency issuer, likening today’s dollar decline to the fall of Rome’s denarius. He points to chronic economic stagnation, a debt load surpassing $31 trillion, and costly...
The International Monetary Fund warned that soaring fertilizer prices are set to deepen the global food crisis, potentially pushing the number of people facing hunger above 360 million. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva highlighted that transport disruptions and higher input costs are...
Wall Street opened muted on Thursday as the Dow Jones slipped 69.3 points, or 0.14%, to 47,840.63. The S&P 500 was essentially flat, down 0.01% to 6,783.69, while the Nasdaq nudged higher 0.05% to 22,646.35. The moves came amid growing...
Wall Street rallied Thursday as investors grew optimistic that Israel’s decision to open direct talks with Lebanon could cement a fragile cease‑fire in the Middle East. The S&P 500 gained 0.6%, the Dow 0.7% and the Nasdaq 0.7% by early...
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty warned that Red Sea security cannot be ensured without political stability in the Horn of Africa, linking maritime chokepoints to Egypt’s Suez Canal revenues. He cautioned that unilateral recognition of Somaliland threatens African sovereignty norms...
The Iran war has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a critical bottleneck for both crude oil and liquefied natural gas, pushing oil prices up about 40% in six weeks and affecting roughly 20% of global oil consumption and 25%...
The OECD has urged Chancellor Rachel Reeves to launch a comprehensive review of the United Kingdom’s tax system, calling it inefficient and growth‑dragging. The report recommends broadening the VAT base, updating council‑tax valuations from 1991, and eliminating regressive reliefs on...
Russia’s mineral extraction tax on oil is set to double in April, reaching roughly $9 billion, after the Iran‑related crisis drove Brent futures above $100 per barrel. The surge stems from the Strait of Hormuz closure following US and Israeli airstrikes,...
FactSet’s median forecast shows the consumer price index rising 3.4% year‑over‑year in March 2026, the strongest gain since April 2024 and above the 12‑month average of 2.6%. The core CPI is expected to increase 2.7% YoY, while February’s CPI posted...
The global maritime trade network is undergoing a structural reset, pushing the Strait of Hormuz to the forefront as the most critical and fragile chokepoint. Earlier bottlenecks such as the Suez Canal and Panama Canal have seen capacity upgrades and...
U.S. crude prices surged past $100 a barrel as Iran kept the Strait of Hormuz closed, demanding Israel halt attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. The closure reignited supply‑risk premiums, pushing the near‑term WTI contract up 5.8% after briefly topping $102....
On This Day in History, April 9, 2025: Trump dropped a bombshell Truth Social post announcing a 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs (dropping them back to 10%), while hiking China’s rate to 125%. Markets went nuts: • Dow surges 2,963 points...
Brazil's inflation is 3.8%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3% inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.4%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/TFkrFL2exI
Important point from Ben -- Americans' income was already **negative** in February once you adjust for inflation. People were having to dip into savings or turn to credit cards to fund their spending, even before gas prices jumped to $4. This is...
.@KGeorgieva opening speech @IMFNews spring meetings entirely about impact of Iran war. Notable shift as IMF and @WorldBankGroup have been reticent so far. But unlike previous crises, IMF is not proposing new action, other than standing ready to help.
Oil or petroleum importer with low income and shaky balance of payments? Your bond yields just shot up. This and more in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/0ZEdcZZMFR
Iran has so far fired just 7 drones today, all at Bahrain, this after launching a monthly high of 149 missiles and drones yesterday. Will it last? Will it get ships moving? https://t.co/RNn07BEdGM
Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist by training, makes a policy U-turn, now backing the development of shale gas deposits in her country (which means fracking, even if she avoided using that word — a taboo in Mexico —...
Gulf states denounce Iranian control of Hormuz What are they going to do about it? Helima Croft nails it: "Iran potentially having a vote on nearly every barrel that exits the waterway until Gulf countries can build more alternative access routes" Any...
#VNZWatch 🇻🇪: In an attempt to prop up the collapsing bolívar, the government has sold about $330 million to purchase bolívars. This is a futile exercise. THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD REPLACE THE BOLÍVAR WITH THE GREENBACK IMMEDIATELY. https://t.co/J9kJ4mZ9TB
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index held steady in February at 2.8%/yr. This is ABOVE the FED’s inflation target of 2%/yr and the February forecast of 2.6%/yr. INFLATION = THE GENIE THE FED JUST CAN'T PUT BACK IN THE BOTTLE....
Imagine writing and publishing an article on trade (by ex BoE chief economist) in Britain’s premier financial newspaper that doesn’t refer at all to China. Well here it is
Two topics that get 100x more airtime than they deserve on fintwit: 1) Trillions in Tbills constantly maturing and getting bought again by the same balance sheets that hold them now. 2) The Treasury issuing some on-the-run debt to buy back some...
The Iran-US conflict is in ceasefire. However, this doesn't mean that prices won't stop going up for oil. @JoshYoung explained this perfectly. Listen to the podcast here: Spotify: https://t.co/dXhhaEqjYx Apple Podcasts: https://t.co/HqM3ZP2DF4
Sleijpen says the ECB will act if needed to keep inflation at target https://t.co/i7fN2hd9FJ via @patrickreports https://t.co/MYYOhsOcMW
Given "Schroedinger's ceasefire" and "Schroedinger's Hormuz re-opening", thought this was a potentially instructive chart from @johnauthers, via @Bloomberg. #HistoryRhymes https://t.co/86srIVeKMI
