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Every morning
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UK fintech funding plunges 21% as rates hit 5.25%
Fintech investment in the UK fell 21% in 2025, driven by the Bank of England’s base rate climbing to 5.25%. Higher rates made government bonds more attractive, pulling capital from venture funds and limiting contributions from pension schemes, while softer consumer spending and loan demand pressured fintech valuations.
Following a U.S.-Iran cease‑fire, Iran has begun requiring ships to obtain its permission before transiting the Strait of Hormuz, effectively keeping the waterway closed to free navigation, according to ADNOC CEO Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber. The restriction affects roughly 20 % of global oil supplies, with about 230 tankers loaded and waiting to exit the Persian Gulf. Al Jaber warned that each day of limited access compounds supply delays, tightens markets and pushes oil prices higher. The cease‑fire does not guarantee the immediate, unrestricted flow demanded by the United States and the energy sector.
Adam Rozencwajg appears on MacroVoices to dissect the fallout from the Iran crisis. He highlights a sharp physical dislocation in the oil market, pushing prices higher and tightening supply. The conversation also covers rising food prices, inflation pressures, a potential...
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted the flow of roughly a third of the world’s fertilizer shipments, driving U.S. fertilizer prices up more than 40% in a single month. Higher fertilizer costs force farmers to cut applications,...
IATA chief Willie Walsh warned that jet‑fuel shortages caused by the Iran‑related war will linger for months even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Refining capacity in the Middle East has fallen 10‑12%, removing over 2 million barrels per day from...
Rates down. Dollar down. Commodities and Latam stocks surging. A reminder: This is a supply-driven market — hiking rates won’t solve the problem. If anything, a higher cost of debt only worsens it by tightening access to capital. And to be fair: The US...
President Trump claims U.S. energy dominance despite Iran’s Strait of Hormuz blockade, yet gasoline prices surged to over $4 per gallon, costing households $8.4 billion in a month. The United States, while a net exporter, still imports roughly 6 million barrels of...
The US‑Israeli war in Iran has pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher, adding roughly $4.4 billion to Africa’s annual debt burden. With $149 billion of Eurobonds outstanding, the continent now faces $900 million to $1.2 billion of extra fiscal pressure each year. The increase stems...
My remarks w/ @DailyCaller on the French withdrawing $15B in gold from the US: “The risk of having foreign reserve assets frozen in the US came up when the US & its allies froze Russian central bank assets in Feb. 2022.” I anticipate...
Kalshi’s founders argue that its predictive edge stems from a broad base of retail traders rather than Wall Street professionals. An internal review of the platform’s top 1,000 users shows few with elite academic credentials or prior market experience, while...
Throughout history, all fiat currencies eventually face the same pressures. When debt grows faster than income and money needs to be created to fill the gap, the value of that money changes. This isn’t a prediction—it’s a pattern that has repeated...
India’s economy grew 7.6% in FY 2025‑26, showing resilience amid heightened global volatility. Principal Secretary Shaktikanta Das likened navigating the crisis to a “Chakravyuh,” stressing that a calibrated exit is essential to avoid new imbalances. He pointed to macro‑stability, rapid digitalisation,...
A lot of red lines for all sides involved... Geopolitical Guy | Substack Source: www.graphicnews.com
The Hindu BusinessLine’s April 9 letters highlight a newly announced cease‑fire in the Middle‑East conflict, which sparked a modest rally in Brent crude and equity markets. However, Iran’s $2 million per‑ship toll for safe passage through the Hormuz Strait threatens to undermine...
Exxon Mobil said its global oil and gas output slipped 6% in Q1 2026 after missile attacks on LNG facilities in Qatar disrupted its Gulf operations. The shortfall translates into a $3.7 billion earnings hit for its energy products division, prompting...
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that he has instructed his cabinet to open direct negotiations with Lebanon, focusing on disarming Hezbollah and establishing formal peace relations. The move follows repeated Lebanese requests and comes amid heightened regional tension after...
The Indonesian rupiah weakened to roughly 17,070 per U.S. dollar on April 9, 2026, intensifying cost‑push inflation for manufacturers that rely on imported components. Business leaders warned the slide threatens cash flow, margins and overall demand, and urged the government...
The International Monetary Fund warned that wars inflict deep, lasting economic damage, with output in conflict zones falling about 3% at the start and accumulating roughly 7% losses over five years—exceeding the impact of financial crises or natural disasters. Rising...
The Energonomics podcast examines how escalating geopolitical tensions are jeopardizing India’s maritime trade and energy security. It highlights the vulnerability of critical chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, where conflict could disrupt oil and cargo...
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised fourth‑quarter 2025 real GDP down to a 0.5% annualized gain, a 0.2‑percentage‑point drop from the second estimate and far below the Bloomberg consensus of no change. The downgrade marks the second consecutive negative revision...
Deutsche Bank’s emerging‑markets CIO Jacky Tang argues that the Middle‑East war makes China the clear energy winner. While Iran‑linked oil imports pose a test, China’s rapid clean‑tech expansion and near‑40% renewable electricity mix cushion it from oil price shocks. Tang...
The Iran‑Houthi conflict and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have driven a sharp jump in the one‑year inflation swap, which rose 62 basis points since Feb. 27, while the 12‑to‑24‑month forward rate (1y1y) has increased only 18 basis points....
China’s New International Land‑Sea Trade Corridor (New ILSTC) moved 1.425 million TEUs in 2025, a 47.6% year‑on‑year rise, and generated $196 billion in trade value, up 17.9%. ASEAN’s share of Chinese exports climbed to 17.6% in 2025, while shipments to Southeast Asia jumped...
The European Commission has announced the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) certificate price for the first quarter of 2026 at €75.36 per tonne of CO₂. Importers of carbon‑intensive products into the EU will be required to purchase these certificates starting...
The Reserve Bank of India issued a prudential circular on March 27 requiring banks to cap their net open position in INR at $100 million, with compliance due by April 10. In response, banks have unwound roughly 90 percent of the estimated $18‑30 billion...
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said it will keep monitoring the impact of the Middle East war after S&P Global Ratings downgraded the Philippines' sovereign outlook from positive to stable while keeping the BBB+ rating. S&P cited the country's strong...
Award‑winning political cartoonist Michael de Adder contributed a guest post titled “Both Sides Win,” featuring a new cartoon that pits an Iranian cleric offering control of the Strait of Hormuz against a triumphant Donald Trump clutching a trophy. The piece highlights...
Emerging‑market equities have finally outpaced U.S. stocks, delivering their widest performance gap in years after a decade‑plus of under‑performance. The Wealth Enterprise Briefing attributes the shift to stronger balance sheets, improved profitability and accelerating earnings momentum. The composition of the...
The International Monetary Fund said it will trim its global growth outlook in the upcoming World Economic Outlook because the war in Iran has created a severe energy supply shock. The conflict has damaged key Gulf infrastructure, including Qatar’s Ras Laffan...
Wood Mackenzie forecasts gas turbine prices to soar to $600 per kilowatt by the end of 2027, a 195% jump from 2019 levels. The surge is driven by specialized labor shortages, hot‑section component bottlenecks, and trade‑related cost pressures, compounded by...
The latest data - out today - show gold holdings by Turkey's central bank falling a further 8 tons in the week to April 3. This brings the total drop to 128 tons since depreciation pressure on the Lira peg...
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese arrived in Singapore ahead of schedule to discuss fuel security with Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. The leaders will focus on ensuring uninterrupted supplies of petrol, diesel and LNG amid a regional fuel crunch sparked...
The long‑standing dispute over toll collection in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, with shipping firms and governments still lacking a unified fee framework. Chinese analysts have floated two novel ideas: tying toll rates directly to global oil prices and...
A year after the “Liberation Day” tariffs imposed a 10% duty on most imports, packaging costs have surged, with some items jumping from $0.80 to $3 each. The Trump administration’s partial rollback on steel, aluminum and copper has left high...
Once again, the UK financial markets are dominated by the “high beta” character of government bonds. (Please see Bloomberg data below.) This isn't just about rate volatility in the national benchmark; it’s also about how that volatility undermines market liquidity, complicates...
Italy says the EU should pause its budget rules if Iran crisis persists https://t.co/T2VEpLuhy8 via @Alemrome https://t.co/Ezc3ypjswJ
On Feb 28, simultaneous shutdowns of the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea cut oil transit by 86% and halted major carrier services, exposing the fragility of a maritime‑centric trade system. The disruption accelerated growth of the Middle Corridor –...
Another does of optimism after Israel agreed to direct talks with Lebanon. USTs reversed earlier losses and surged higher with long-end lagging before 30y auction. WIs 4.88
Wow I wasn't aware just how positive Brazilian real rates were. This would be like if U.S. interest rates at 12%... https://t.co/M9wTdfi05a
"contract resolved to "yes" following Tuesday evening's announcements, but its outcome has since been changed to "disputed" given continued disruptions to Hormuz Strait shipments and enduring hostilities" Iran Ceasefire Wreaks Havoc on Prediction Markets https://t.co/uv56XlWTW9
Trump and Netanyahu have handed Iran the strategic high ground –– the control of the Strait of Hormuz. As I told @SeanPmathews: “The Strait of Hormuz was a freeway. Now it’s an Iranian toll road.” https://t.co/dGLBi5V6KE
Well that is a problem given that in the last couple weeks, the MOVE Volatility Index and US policymakers’ actions (TACO’d every single time 10y hit 4.4%) empirically showed that the US & world cannot handle >4.4% on the 10y. #YouDownWithYCCYeahYouKnowMe
This is a really fantastic overview of what's been going on in Iranian financial markets over the last year. Turns out, since the start of this war, Iranian retail traders have been rotating out of precious metals and into fixed income...
@MrMBrown channeling his inner nerd on ONS inflation data, which should now reflect real prices 😂https://t.co/Wm7iIl1SE8
I spoke to @SeanPmathews about KING DOLLAR: "Sanctions, wars, and tariffs make it easier for the dollar's challengers. But the US is the biggest, most liquid capital market in the world, bigger than all the others put together. That’s why king...
In the real world, the deficit fell by $56 billion last year, less than one-tenth of what Kevin claims, but he did get the direction right this time, unlike his claims about inflation falling
Brazil's inflation is 3.8%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3% inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.4%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/TFkrFL2exI
Important point from Ben -- Americans' income was already **negative** in February once you adjust for inflation. People were having to dip into savings or turn to credit cards to fund their spending, even before gas prices jumped to $4. This is...
.@KGeorgieva opening speech @IMFNews spring meetings entirely about impact of Iran war. Notable shift as IMF and @WorldBankGroup have been reticent so far. But unlike previous crises, IMF is not proposing new action, other than standing ready to help.
Oil or petroleum importer with low income and shaky balance of payments? Your bond yields just shot up. This and more in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/0ZEdcZZMFR
Iran has so far fired just 7 drones today, all at Bahrain, this after launching a monthly high of 149 missiles and drones yesterday. Will it last? Will it get ships moving? https://t.co/RNn07BEdGM
