Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Malaysia’s Overland Logistics Hubs Projected to Add 3.8% to GDP and Create 12,000 Jobs
Malaysia’s East Coast Rail Link and the new Perlis Inland Port are expected to lift the nation’s GDP by 3.8% and create 12,000 jobs, while providing an alternative land route to the Strait of Malacca. The projects could expand the logistics market to 156.83 billion ringgit ($40.1 bn) by 2031 and cut road freight by 30%.
Iran Conflict Risks 20% of Global Oil Supply, Fuels Sharp Price Surge
Iran's announcement of a toll system for ships in the Strait of Hormuz could restrict up to 20% of global oil supply, sending crude prices soaring. The move coincides with U.S. cargo aircraft leaving the region and heightened concerns over...
Analysts Warn Oil Prices Could Spike Non‑Linearly as Supply Tightens
Energy analysts cautioned that crude oil markets may experience a sudden, non‑linear price jump within a month as inventories dwindle and geopolitical risk mounts. Brent crude hovering around $110 per barrel has already pushed Indian fuel prices higher, raising inflation...
Rising Global Bond Yields and AI Profit‑Taking Set Tone for China A‑Shares Next Week
Higher U.S. Treasury yields and a sharp pull‑back in AI‑focused stocks are shaping expectations for China’s A‑share market next week. Analysts forecast heightened volatility with a tentative rebound from May 18‑19, while a breakout on ChiNext, led by Zhongji Xuchuang,...
Record Equities Drive Metals, Crypto Amid Inflation
Record Equities Are the Key Difference vs. 2008 The latest consumer price index reading of 3.8% is above the effective federal funds rate, a pattern last seen before the Great Recession. My graphic shows a similar CPI-fed funds trajectory, recovering from...
A Sinking Ship? Why the EU and China Could Be Heading for a Trade War
Tensions between the European Union and China escalated at a recent Beijing conference, where both sides traded accusations of protectionism and bullying. The EU’s forthcoming Industrial Accelerator Act would force Chinese high‑tech investors to form joint ventures, hire locally and...
China Expands State Support Beyond EVs, Chips Into Broader Economy: Report
China is broadening its state‑led industrial policy beyond electric vehicles, chips and clean energy to cover AI, quantum, critical minerals and mature manufacturing sectors. The U.S. Chamber report says this systemic push is boosting China’s trade surplus to nearly $2 trillion...
G7 Finance Ministers to Meet Amid Warning of Economic Consequences of Prolonged Strait of Hormuz Closure
G7 finance ministers and central bankers will meet in Paris as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz fuels sharp rises in oil prices and bond yields. Eurogroup President Kyriakos Pierrakakis warned that reopening the waterway is essential to curb...
Borderlands Mexico: Cross-Border Trade Tops $84B in March as USMCA Talks Heat Up
U.S.-Mexico two‑way trade surged to more than $84 billion in March, an 8.6% year‑over‑year increase, keeping Mexico as the United States’ top trading partner. Exports from Mexico were led by computer parts, computers and automotive components, while U.S. exports to Mexico...
Powell Steps Down as Fed Chair, Leaving Interest‑Rate Future in Flux
Jerome Powell has been named interim Federal Reserve chair pending the swearing‑in of Kevin Warsh, ending his eight‑year tenure. His exit comes as inflation remains 27% above pre‑pandemic levels and the Fed’s benchmark rate sits at a two‑decade high, raising...
Intra‑BRICS Merchandise Trade Reaches $1.17 Trillion in 2024, Signaling Deepening Integration
India’s Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal announced that intra‑BRICS merchandise trade hit $1.17 trillion in 2024, a thirteen‑fold increase from 2003. The surge, still only about 5% of global trade, highlights untapped potential for deeper integration among emerging economies.
QNB Flags Eurozone Growth Downturn as PMI Slips, Raising Risks for Euro Stocks
Qatar National Bank warned that the Eurozone is sliding into a growth downturn, pointing to a Composite PMI of 48.6 and a Services PMI of 47.4. The bank says manufacturing appears superficially strong due to stockpiling, but underlying demand is...
Warsh Nomination Fuels FX Market Debate Over Potential Rate Cuts
Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve chair has ignited a fierce policy debate, with former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester questioning his credibility amid soaring inflation. Traders are weighing the prospect of early rate cuts, a scenario that could weaken...
Putin to Meet Xi in Beijing Days After Trump’s China Trip
Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to visit China on May 19‑20 for talks with President Xi Jinping, arriving only days after former U.S. President Donald Trump’s trip to Beijing. The back‑to‑back visits underscore shifting diplomatic dynamics and could influence...
BofA CIO Michael Hartnett Warns Treasury Demand Strain Could Spark Yield Shock
Bank of America chief investment officer Michael Hartnett cautioned that Treasury demand is eroding and the 30‑year yield has slipped above the 5% “Maginot Line.” He warned that a breach could trigger a multi‑sigma yield jump and add deflationary pressure...
Oil Spikes Above $105, US Stocks Tumble and Treasury Yields Jump
Crude oil surged past $105 per barrel on Friday, dragging the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones down 1%‑plus and lifting the 10‑year Treasury yield to 4.6%. The move reflects heightened geopolitical risk and fuels fresh concerns about inflation and...
Wall Street Is Keeping a Close Eye on Kevin Warsh at the Fed. These Are the Red (and Green) Flags...
Kevin Warsh, the president‑nominated Federal Reserve chair, is under intense scrutiny as he prepares to lead a central bank confronting AI‑driven economic shifts, rising geopolitical tension, and sticky inflation. Wall Street is weighing green flags—his willingness to build consensus and...
China Says Preliminary Agreement Reached with US to Lower some Tariffs
China’s commerce ministry announced a preliminary agreement with the United States to lower tariffs, establishing a trade council and an investment council to negotiate reciprocal cuts. The deal also confirms agricultural and aviation arrangements, including China’s purchase of 200 Boeing...
G‑7 Leaders Grapple with Global Imbalances After Trump‑China Meeting
World imbalances trouble G-7 finance ministers and central bank chiefs in the wake wake of Trump’s China encounter https://t.co/1m9IbLR8mv via @WHorobin @DanielPFlatley https://t.co/SWUIM4wc1f
FTAs, Lower Import Duties, Better Business Environment to Boost Net FDI Flows: ADB Chief Economist
India’s net foreign direct investment has slumped from $38.6 billion in 2021‑22 to just $3 billion in the April‑December period of FY 26, prompting concerns about capital outflows. ADB chief economist Albert Park attributes the decline to high tariffs, limited industrial infrastructure, and...
North America, NE Asia, Latin America Account for over 35 Pc of India's Exports in FY26
India’s merchandise exports reached $441.78 billion in FY 2025‑26, with North America, North‑East Asia and Latin America together accounting for over 35 percent of the total. Exports to North‑East Asia surged 21.6 percent to $41.6 billion, while Latin America grew 7.8 percent to $16.4 billion. The trade...
Trump Returns From China as U.S. Inflation Hits 3.8% and Economic Pressure Mounts
President Donald Trump flew home from a state visit to China to a U.S. economy where consumer inflation rose to 3.8% in April and could reach 4.2% in May. He touted potential Boeing sales of up to 750 aircraft and...
Nikkei 225 Slides 2% as Tech Sell‑Off Meets Fresh Taiwan Tensions
Japan's Nikkei 225 closed at 61,409.29, down 1.99%, as a technology‑driven correction and renewed Taiwan‑related geopolitical risk erased the week’s gains. The slide highlighted vulnerability in semiconductor stocks and revived concerns over Bank of Japan policy.
IMF Lauds Hong Kong’s Resilience but Flags Middle East War Risks
The International Monetary Fund praised Hong Kong’s surprisingly robust post‑COVID rebound, but warned that the ongoing war in the Middle East could drag its GDP growth down to 2.4% this year. The IMF urged fiscal reforms, including a goods‑and‑services tax,...
Energy‑Driven Inflation Pushes Global Sovereign Yields to Multi‑Year Peaks
U.S., European and Asian sovereign bond yields surged this week as Brent crude topped $109 a barrel, pushing the U.S. 10‑year Treasury to 4.6%, the U.K. gilt to 5.17% and Japan’s 30‑year bond past 4%. Analysts link the sell‑off to...
Iran War Cuts 15% of Global Oil Supply, Brent Tops $100; Nigeria Signs $25 Bn Refinery MoU
The war in Iran has eliminated roughly 15% of global oil output, driving Brent crude above $100 a barrel. At the same time, Nigeria’s NNPC signed a memorandum of understanding with two Chinese firms to revive its Warri and Port...
China Indicates Tariffs Were Discussed at Trump Summit
China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that the United States and China reached a preliminary agreement to reduce tariffs on a select group of products, directly contradicting President Trump’s earlier claim that tariffs were not discussed at the summit. The two...
Irish Exports to US Plunge 82%, Losing $23bn Amid Tariff Dispute
Irish exports to the United States fell 82% in March, with value dropping from €25.5 billion ($27.8 bn) to €4.5 billion ($4.9 bn). The plunge reflects the fallout from escalating US tariffs that have forced Irish firms to unwind a year‑long stockpiling strategy, hitting...
European Stocks Plunge 1.6% as Inflation Fears Spike, Oil Near $109 a Barrel
European equities tumbled on Friday, with the Stoxx 600 sliding 1.6% after hotter‑than‑expected U.S. inflation data and a jump in oil to about $109 per barrel. The sell‑off hit all major markets, from London to Milan, and was amplified by...
Nowcasts of GDP Diverge
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model now projects a 4% quarterly‑annualized increase for Q2 2026, while the St. Louis Fed’s nowcast sits at just 0.8%. A parallel “core GDP” measure—final sales to private domestic purchasers—shows a 3.1% q/q annualized rise, outpacing the...
Dogecoin Slides ~3% as Rising Yields and Oil Prices Damp Meme‑Coin Sentiment
Dogecoin fell about 3% on Friday as higher U.S. Treasury yields and a surge in oil prices sparked a risk‑off wave across the crypto market. The decline mirrors broader weakness in Bitcoin and other digital assets, underscoring how macro‑economic headwinds...
Inflation Will Likely Be Higher for Longer. Your Retirement Plan Isn’t Built for That.
Official CPI reports 3.8% inflation, yet retirees experience roughly 8% because healthcare, energy, food and tax costs are soaring. The ongoing Iran conflict and rising Treasury debt keep oil premiums high, extending price pressures across the economy. Most retirement plans...
Senegal Summit Targets $74.5 B Debt Pricing Gap in Africa
Senegal opened a two‑day conference in Dakar to confront the pricing bias that forces African sovereign bonds to trade at 8‑15% yields, costing the continent an estimated $74.5 bn in excess borrowing charges. Speakers called for rating‑methodology reform, local‑currency market development...
UAE Leaves OPEC, Raising Questions on Cartel Unity and Oil Market Stability
The United Arab Emirates announced its exit from OPEC, prompting analysts to warn of a potential fracture in the cartel and heightened uncertainty for global oil supplies. The move coincides with heightened geopolitical tension in the Gulf and new energy...
Canadian Stocks Slide 1.3% as Hormuz Blockade Keeps Oil Flow Disrupted
Canadian equities fell sharply on Friday, with the S&P/TSX Composite Index closing 1.27% lower at 33,833.35 after the Strait of Hormuz blockade remained in place, removing roughly 15% of global oil supply and keeping crude prices above $100 a barrel....
Trump’s Visit to China
Former President Donald Trump traveled to Beijing for a high‑stakes summit with President Xi Jinping, marking the first direct U.S.–China meeting of its kind in six years. The encounter was dissected on PBS’s Washington Week With The Atlantic, where journalists...
Govt Restricts Silver Imports Amid Push to Curb Metal Inflows
India has tightened silver import rules, requiring importers to obtain a government licence after customs duties on precious metals rose from 6% to 15% on May 13. The Directorate General of Foreign Trade reclassified silver, including gold‑plated and platinum‑plated variants, from...
Croatia's CPI Hits 5.8% YoY in April, Raising Eurozone Inflation Concerns
Croatia's consumer price index jumped 5.8% year‑on‑year in April, confirming flash estimates and marking the highest inflation rate since October 2023. The surge adds fresh pressure on Eurozone price stability and could weigh on European stock markets.
Emerging‑Market Currencies Slide as Middle‑East Conflict Spurs Dollar Surge
Emerging‑market currencies slumped on Friday, with the MSCI EM Currency index down 0.4% and the Brazilian real, Chilean peso and South African rand each losing over 1.2%. The sell‑off was driven by heightened inflation worries from the Middle‑East conflict, a...
India‑UK Trade Deal Stalled by New UK Steel Safeguards, Officials Say
India’s Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal announced that the rollout of the India‑UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement has hit a roadblock due to Britain’s newly announced steel safeguards, which cut tariff‑free quotas by about 60% and raise tariffs to 50%....
India Lifts Gasoline Price by ₹3 per Litre, Widening Trade Deficit as Oil Imports Surge
India's state‑run oil firms raised petrol and diesel prices by ₹3 per litre, taking petrol to Rs 97.77 and diesel to Rs 90.67 per litre. The hike comes as Brent crude hovers around $110 a barrel, inflating oil import bills and prompting...
US Stock Futures Slip as Middle East Conflict Dampens Sentiment, S&P 500 Falls Below 7,500
Wall Street futures turned negative on Thursday as anxiety over the Israel‑Iran war, rising energy prices and stubborn inflation weighed on investors. The S&P 500 slipped to 7,439.10, the Dow fell 0.52%, and the DJIA settled at 49,803.20, marking the...
Amid the Fertiliser Crisis, Africa Has a Chemical-Free Option: Agroecology
The war in the Gulf has halted roughly 20% of global fertiliser shipments, driving up prices and threatening food security across Africa, which relies heavily on imports. Past attempts to subsidise chemical fertilisers and hand land to agribusinesss have left...
Markets Weekly Outlook: The Kevin Warsh Repricing And Inflation Points
The market outlook pivots on Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as the next Federal Reserve chair, signaling an aggressive balance‑sheet reduction that will drain liquidity. Analysts expect a stronger U.S. dollar and sharp pressure on equities, metals, and cryptocurrencies as the Fed...
Farmers Growing Increasingly Desperate Amid Rising Energy and Fertilizer Prices
Midwest farmers are heading into planting season under severe financial strain as the Iran conflict has driven diesel prices up 60% to $5.67 a gallon and fertilizer costs to historic highs. The surge in input costs, combined with lower soybean...
Xi’s All‑Encompassing Industrial Policy Redefines Global Strategy
Great @WSJ from @greg_ip: "Xi Jinping has elevated Chinese industrial policy into something the world has never seen. It targets almost every industry and region, demand as well as supply, services as well as goods, the sophisticated and the mundane. Its...
US, China Eye Tariff Cuts on Non‑critical Goods
"US eyes Board of Trade with China to cut tariffs on non-critical goods" https://t.co/QDdTqLYgnB This, of course, raises more Qs than As. Beyond the obvs when/what, 1) Why do we have tariffs on this stuff rn; and 2) Why are...
Core PCE Climbs 3.3% YoY, Highest Since 2023
BofA: Our economists are now tracking +3.3% YoY core PCE in April – the highest since 2023 https://t.co/kiWMvw9BU9
China’s State Banks Hold $1.5 Trillion, Eclipsing Japan’s Reserves
The net foreign asset position of China's state banks (in both dollars and RMB) is now $1.5 trillion -- a rather big sum (close to 1/2 China's formal reserves, a sum bigger than Japan's reserves ... ) 1/ many https://t.co/Rd90nZTcgw
Bond Yields Surge, Signaling End of Reckless Fiscal Policy
Long-term gov't bond yields made new highs for the UK (orange), the US (black), Japan (red) and France (green) this past week. I've banged on for a year how markets' attitude to debt has fundamentally changed. The days of reckless...