What's happening: US growth stalls to 1.4% annualized in Q4 2025 amid fiscal gridlock
The U.S. economy expanded at a 1.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, roughly half of analysts' expectations and the slowest pace since early 2024. The deceleration follows a 4.4% surge in the prior quarter and coincides with heightened legislative gridlock over fiscal policy and the debt ceiling.

The Advocate Arms in Market Rasen is polling patrons on a possible £7.50 price for a pint of Guinness, up from its current £6. Diageo says the increase translates to roughly £0.04 per draught pint and stresses that retail pricing remains at the retailer’s discretion, while the UK average pint cost sits at £5.21. Rising supply‑chain costs, higher energy bills and upcoming business‑rate discounts are squeezing pub margins, prompting calls from CAMRA for broader fiscal relief. Meanwhile, breweries such as Shadowbridge are capping drinks at £5 to avoid unsellable stock, highlighting the broader affordability challenge for consumers.
The labor market showed signs of healing late in 2025 and in January. Catch up following long government shutdown helps alleviate ranks of those suffering temporary layoffs and forced to accept part instead of full-time jobs. Some healthy churn returned...
🚨 From Agent-1 to Superintelligence: The AI 2027 Scenario The AI 2027 Report outlines one of the most thought-provoking trajectories for artificial intelligence: a rapid evolution from simple assistants (Agent-1) to autonomous, adversarially misaligned systems (Agent-4) and ultimately to Agent-5 —...

Juan S. González argues that U.S. security hinges on a stable Western Hemisphere, echoing Roosevelt’s Monroe‑Doctrine insight. He praises Secretary of State Marco Rubio for recognizing the need for proactive engagement but criticizes Rubio’s reliance on coercion and short‑term pressure....

Analytically, the January U.S. jobs report supports competing views. The market reaction, however, was clear: traders have sharply dialed back expectations for a June rate cut. The big beat on January job creation, paired with a dip in the unemployment rate...
Atlantic Council vice‑president and Scowcroft Center senior director Matthew Kroenig appeared on NPR on Feb. 11 to discuss the Trump administration’s ongoing negotiations with Iran. He outlined the limited progress of back‑channel talks aimed at reviving a nuclear agreement and highlighted...

Tepid response of the Dollar to a big upside surprise in payrolls. The whisper number for consensus was weak, so this was a solid beat, yet USD is barely able to rise. We're on our way to the correlation switch...
Two major coal developments in the last 24 hours. 1. White House announcing purchases and support to revive the industry 2. Indonesia just ordered the world's largest nickel mine to sharply cut output. They are also looking to cut coal production by...

China has invoked its Export Control Law to ban dual‑use exports to Japan and tighten rare‑earth licensing, signaling a new escalation in its diplomatic dispute with Tokyo. The move follows a broader trend of Beijing building offensive economic statecraft tools,...

In this episode, Mahesh Bhimalingam of Bloomberg Intelligence and Ashwin Palta of BNY Investments discuss the Bloomberg Intelligence 1Q26 Investor Survey, highlighting the continued resilience of credit and high‑yield markets despite recent tariff shocks and rate volatility. They examine why...

A growing chorus of workers, researchers, and public figures warn that artificial intelligence could permanently eliminate millions of jobs. MIT researchers estimate current AI systems can automate tasks performed by over 20 million American workers, roughly 12 % of the labor force,...

Oatly has lost a UK Supreme Court ruling that bars the company from trademarking or using the phrase “post‑milk generation” in its marketing, after Dairy UK argued that the term “milk” should be reserved for animal‑derived products. The court affirmed earlier...

NFP BREAKDOWN : Unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% while headline number crushed the expectations. In simple words , this was a much solid NFP all across the board. FED pause will continue. Profit taking in Gold , SPX , NASDAQ on reduced rate cut...
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the Russian Duma that only U.S. President Donald Trump has claimed India will cease buying Russian oil, and no Indian official has made such a statement. Lavrov highlighted India’s new BRICS chairmanship and its focus...
India has urged its state‑owned refiners to give priority to crude from the United States and Venezuela as part of a broader effort to diversify supplies and reduce reliance on Russian oil. The government’s suggestion applies to spot‑market tenders for...
The U.S. Treasury issued a general license for Venezuelan oil and gas exploration that explicitly excludes Russian and Chinese entities, tightening restrictions on Moscow’s energy interests. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia will seek clarification from Washington to protect its substantial...
Indonesia ordered the world’s largest nickel mine, PT Weda Bay, to cut its ore quota from 42 million tonnes to 12 million tonnes for 2024, aiming to tighten global supply. The LME nickel price rose 2 percent to $17,835 a tonne, extending a rally of...
https://t.co/k2T7oPbMh8 In an interview with CNBC on Monday (February 9, 2026), Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, advised markets to expect "slightly smaller job numbers" in the coming months. These remarks, have led many to speculate that the January...

Moldova announced its formal exit from the Commonwealth of Independent States, signaling a decisive break from a key Russian‑linked institution. At the same time, Chişinău is accelerating its integration with the European Union under President Maia Sandu’s pro‑Western agenda. Public...

Petrol prices in Northern Ireland have fallen to 124.2 pence per litre, the lowest level in five years, while diesel holds steady at 131.9 pence. The decline follows a global oil oversupply and easing geopolitical tensions after the 2022 price spike triggered...
Good morning and welcome to Jobs Report Day in the US. The consensus forecasts are for a monthly employment gain of 65,000, an unemployment rate of 4.4%, and a 3.7% annual increase in average hourly earnings. As we head into this release,...

$USDJPY is down over -2.5% over the past three days. One of the biggest drops in the past year and a half. Doesn't mean it has to stall and reverse though... https://t.co/LRjhnctyzL
The India‑Chile free trade negotiations are moving toward a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement that explicitly includes critical minerals such as lithium, copper, and cobalt. Chile’s abundant reserves could supply India’s “Make in India” and clean‑energy ambitions, while recent moves by...

US household debt just hit $18.8 TRILLION. Consumer delinquencies are at their HIGHEST LEVEL in nearly a DECADE. Not a good sign. https://t.co/PHcOGrhvOc

#NFPs beat expectations by the most in 10 months - a 130K vs 40K expected. That said, revisions aggregated through 2025 have lowered the year's total by over 1 million https://t.co/p1pkqEWC57

South Korean carrier HMM posted a Q4 2025 net profit of KRW 364 billion, a 59.9% plunge from the prior period, while revenues fell 14.2% to KRW 2.71 trillion. The full‑year results showed a 50.3% profit drop to KRW 1.88 trillion as container freight rates slumped 49%...
My menchies show a lotta distrust about the official jobs numbers right now. Lemme be clear: I don't believe there's *any* political meddling in these numbers. While the President has tried to mess with the BLS, he failed. I explain in...

Every year the BLS does a benchmark revision which incorporates new and more detailed information. This year's revision suggests that 2025 was a far worse year than earlier estimates suggested, and total job growth was less than half that suggested...
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President Donald Trump urged his Fed chair pick, Kevin Warsh, to deliver 15% annual GDP growth, a target rarely achieved outside wartime. The president’s demand follows criticism of current chair Jerome Powell and calls for aggressive rate cuts. Economists note...

First positive manufacturing payrolls in a very long time, private payrolls surging, UR down. The economy is re-accelerating https://t.co/sbUBFBA4SA

The U.S. job market is very unbalanced right now. One sector more than accounts for all jobs growth over the past year. The rest of the economy is shedding jobs. https://t.co/EGsnQj04uA

The article argues that the world is moving beyond bloc politics toward issue‑based cooperation, with Europe seeking strategic autonomy while engaging China on a case‑by‑case basis. Recent high‑level visits to Beijing by European and other leaders underscore this shift. Trade...

#NKWatch🇰🇵: Today, I measure North Korea’s inflation at 74.6%/yr. This makes North Korea the WORLD'S THIRD-HIGHEST INFLATOR. SUPREME LEADER KIM JONG UN = KILLING NORTH KOREA'S ECONOMY. https://t.co/iTKJhtxWvr
Jan jobs data better than expected and benchmark revision more or less in line. Unemployment rate ticks lower. $USD jump sold into quickly. Mkt still pricing in around two cuts this year.

Spotify reported a surge in paid subscribers, adding 9 million to reach 290 million in the last quarter of 2025, driving net profit to €1.17 bn and total revenue to $4.5 bn. The company’s annual Wrapped campaign engaged over 300 million users and generated 630 million social...

Payrolls rose a very healthy +130k in January, and unemployment fell a tick to 4.3 percent. Revisions subtracted -17k from the past two months, so not much there. This is the healthiest jobs report we've seen in a while. Keep your fingers...

#CubaWatch 🇨🇺: Thanks to Trump’s blockade, Cuba can no longer supply jet fuel to international airlines. Stay tuned. https://t.co/I5GxUM3wGq

“I think Greenland was a wake-up call. There is more talk [in Brussels] about replacing one dependency with another.” This is what I told the Wall Street Journal about Europe’s increasing dependence on US LNG following the end of Russian...

$USD is soft ahead of the delayed jobs report. Japanese markets were closed for a national holiday, but the dramatic short squeeze of $JPY continued. WTI is up ~2% as the US-Iran confrontation seems near a climax. ...

A new report shows that global electricity demand will increase at an average annual rate of 3.6% between 2026 and 2030. Emerging economies will account for nearly 80% of additional electricity consumption through 2030. More here: https://t.co/ZtTGSlWOMx https://t.co/dw82OPRKGw
India’s government is considering raising the foreign direct investment (FDI) cap for banks from 20% to 49%. SMART MOVE. MORE FDI = MORE BANK CAPITAL = MORE LENDING CAPACITY https://t.co/agaPK9vbzO

Nigeria’s inflation rate is DOUBLE NGA’s inflation target at 15.29%/yr. Nigeria’s money supply is growing at 15.19%/yr, ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~11.83%-14.83%/yr, a rate consistent with Nigeria’s 6%-9%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/367h7H4ytf
Will stock markets find enough to like in US jobs data? It’s all about Fed interest rate cut expectations. #Jobs #NFP #StockMarket #Dollar #Fed #Macro #Trading https://t.co/UBCpyuHxhZ
"So what does the job market data say to you?" "It says that we're underperforming right now... The thing that matters most to people's lives is the unemployment rate. Can you find work? And that was as low as...
SCOOP: Detroit Billionaire Owner of Ambassador Bridge Lobbied Administration, Met With Howard Lutnick Monday, Hours Before Trump Lambasted New Detroit-Michigan Gordie Howe Bridge w/ @tylerpager #cdnpoli https://t.co/A1JpN7GgU0

A dirty little secret that the Russiaphobes in London keep under the rug: RUSSIA’S ECONOMY IS OUTPACING THE UK’S. SANCTIONS = BACKFIRE = RARELY WORK. https://t.co/FLcUb0QXGw
Distinguished Columbia Univ. Professor Jeff Sachs on Venezuela: “The will to run Venezuela other than maybe in Marco Rubio's and Donald Trump's head is zero in the United States… a year from now, Venezuela is a forgotten issue in the United...

OUT NOW - @BergMilton on: - clear sign of "climax top" in gold & silver - why he expects a precious metals bear market - S&P 500, Bitcoin, Software + Korean stocks & more Apple🔊https://t.co/bNqmCOVqMV Spotify📽️https://t.co/mnN6Dn02hi 1/3 https://t.co/U3F0Pxojhy
I'm trying something new: Video essays exploring recent economic developments. There's... a lot to talk about these days. Here's the first one: Thoughts on Trump, the BLS, and the new BLS Commissioner. Spoiler: This is a good news story. https://t.co/M4NltoNXJR

The 'sell America' trade pressure seems to be picking up again. The SPX-VEU (rest of world equity ETF) ratio is the lowest since April 22nd. A little further and it is a two year low. Adding the DXY Dollar Index in for...