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Global Economy Pulse
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Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
UK fintech funding plunges 21% as rates hit 5.25%
Fintech investment in the UK fell 21% in 2025, driven by the Bank of England’s base rate climbing to 5.25%. Higher rates made government bonds more attractive, pulling capital from venture funds and limiting contributions from pension schemes, while softer consumer spending and loan demand pressured fintech valuations.
The United States and Iran have agreed to a two‑week cease‑fire that pauses air and missile attacks and allows limited freight traffic through the Strait of Hormuz under military supervision. Iran’s 10‑point peace proposal, which includes lifting sanctions and recognition of its enrichment program, remains on the table, while the U.S. claims a “total and complete victory” and pushes for a broader agreement. The truce also lifts the blockade that had halted hundreds of LPG, LNG and crude tankers, a relief for India, which sources over 60% of its LPG and 30% of its crude oil via the strait. A proposed $2 million fee per ship, to be shared with Oman, will fund reconstruction of damaged infrastructure.
Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri inaugurated the India‑US Trade Facilitation Portal during a virtual event in Washington, marking a concrete step toward deepening commercial ties. The portal is designed to streamline interactions between Indian and American firms, reinforcing existing supply chains...
Iran warned that Israel's continued strikes in Lebanon jeopardize the fragile U.S.-mediated cease‑fire, threatening to reignite hostilities and potentially close the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Tehran’s senior security official said the violations raise the cost of the agreement for the...
U.S. equity markets surged more than 2% at midday on Wednesday as investors breathed relief from the newly announced two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The geopolitical de‑escalation helped lift risk appetite across Communication Services and Industrials, while...
Kenya ended its 24‑year COMESA sugar safeguard regime in November 2025, shifting to a duty‑free framework for COMESA and EAC partners while retaining licensing controls. Retail sugar prices fell to $1.28 per kilogram in March 2026, down from $1.42 in...
CoinShares research shows that roughly 14 million Iranians – about one in six of the population – now rely on Bitcoin to sidestep sanctions and a collapsing rial. Bitcoin transaction volume grew 11.8% year‑over‑year and now represents 2.2% of Iran’s GDP....
This has a 100% record. Every single time in the last 23 years that PMI has entered expansion, after contraction, it has signalled the start of a heavy risk on period for markets. I've used Russell 2000 here to take us back...
European leaders warned they could be on the hook for a costly operation to clear the Strait of Hormuz after President Trump announced a cease‑fire with Iran. France, Germany and the United Kingdom have pledged to escort ships and remove...
Hong Kong conglomerate CK Hutchison has initiated arbitration in London against Danish shipping giant A.P. Moller‑Maersk, accusing the carrier of breaching a contract by collaborating with Panama to replace Hutchison’s Panama Ports Company as operator of the Balboa terminal. The...
The Iran‑Israel conflict has pushed diesel, fertilizer and shipping costs higher, nudging U.S. produce prices upward. USDA data shows tomatoes, bananas and onions have risen since the war began, while the UN’s food price index climbed 2.4% in March. Experts...
The U.S. dollar on Wednesday fell to a two-year low against the Brazilian real, down about 19% from its Dec. 2024 peak. Applying this to CBOT soybean prices: 🇺🇸Beans (USD) are up 11% from this same week last year 🇧🇷Beans (BRL) are...
The central banks of the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have signed a five‑year currency swap agreement worth roughly $5.3 billion (BHD 2 billion or AED 20 billion). The pact is designed to provide mutual liquidity support, promote the use of local currencies in trade,...
The Strait of Hormuz May remain shut, the barrels of oil may remain firmly locked in. The ceasefire may not hold. But nobody will dare go long on crude futures. Because there will be yet another false dawn, and they will get...
Alaska’s Senate passed a resolution urging the federal government to keep and strengthen the ban on Russian seafood imports that President Biden first imposed in 2022 and expanded in 2023. Lawmakers argue Russian subsidies and lax environmental standards keep fish...
The Reserve Bank of India warned that rising energy prices and a strong dollar could push the current account deficit (CAD) higher in FY27, after it widened to 1.3% of GDP in Q3 2025‑26. Net capital inflows fell short of...
Canada now provides more than half of U.S. petroleum imports, delivering 4.42 million barrels per day, while traditional Middle‑East sources have dwindled to single‑digit shares. A surge in domestic output, especially from Texas and the Dakotas, has turned the United States...
A new paper in the Journal of Post‑Keynesian Economics details how the US dollar became the world’s primary currency, largely thanks to a secret 1974 Saudi‑oil‑for‑Treasury‑bond pact that expired in 2024. The study argues that the petrodollar arrangement allowed the...
The World Bank now expects India’s economy to expand 6.6% in FY27, down from the 7.6% growth recorded in FY26. The downgrade reflects heightened energy costs and trade disruptions stemming from the West Asia war, which could shave 30‑40 basis...
President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States will impose an immediate 50% tariff on all imports from any country that supplies Iran with military weapons, without any exemptions. The declaration came hours after a cease‑fire agreement...
The Democratic Republic of the Congo’s key mining exports are seeing price gains in early 2026, with copper trading at $12,143 per ton, gold at $150.65 per gram, and cobalt at $55,607 per ton. Production remains robust, highlighted by 3.5 million...
🌍 Global News Update: ⦿ Brazil's 10-year bond yield tumbled toward 13.7% as crude oil prices plunged, improving the inflation outlook. ⦿ US crude inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels to 464.7 million barrels in the week ended April 3. ⦿ US 10-year...
President Donald Trump blasted CNN on Truth Social, calling a headline about Iran's ceasefire a "totally made‑up" story. CNN responded by standing by its reporting and noting the post was later removed. The clash highlights the growing friction between the...
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its benchmark policy repo rate steady at 5.25% and reiterated a neutral stance on April 8, 2026. The decision came as the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee cited resilient macro fundamentals despite heightened geopolitical...
The Middle East conflict is unsettling global fertilizer supply chains by inflating natural‑gas costs and creating maritime bottlenecks, pushing fertilizer prices up 6.5% in February 2026. Because natural gas accounts for 70‑80% of production costs, any price shock quickly translates...
The United States announced a two‑week cease‑fire with Iran, sending 10‑year Treasury yields sharply lower and sparking hopes of a short‑term dip in mortgage rates that have hovered near 6.5%. The pause also reopened the Strait of Hormuz, easing oil...
The Trump administration revived pharmaceutical tariffs, imposing a 100% base duty on imported patented drugs and their active ingredients. While generic medicines and UK imports are exempt, firms with Most Favored Nation (MFN) agreements—such as Pfizer and Eli Lilly—are shielded, and...
The U.S. Treasury’s general licenses that let Russia and Iran ship oil expire on April 11 and April 19, respectively. The temporary influx has not stopped crude prices from climbing, and both regimes are now earning roughly $150 million and $139 million per day....
U.S. container imports dropped 7.5% in February to 1.95 million TEU, reflecting the combined impact of higher fuel costs tied to the Iran‑Hormuz conflict and a series of new tariffs. The NRF and Hackett Associates report projects modest recovery in May‑June...
The last plot is through 9:43 AM ET today (April 8th). It is on track to be the highest of the last month. Again, this has to go to zero for shipping to start moving through the Strait. Note that the uptick...
The war intrigue has gone beyond anyone’s wildest imagination, I wonder what comes next. Washington will declare it has signed a peace deal exactly on its terms and claim the Strait of Hormuz has been fully reopened, while Iran continues to...
The Democratic Republic of the Congo’s state budget remains heavily anchored to the extractive sector, which supplied roughly $5.85 billion—about 60% of total revenues—in 2023. Mining alone accounted for 96% of those extractive earnings, delivering approximately $5.6 billion, while oil contributed just...
A durable cease-fire narrows the tail risks for the Fed on both sides, but it may do so asymmetrically: it cuts off the demand destruction tail that could have forced near-term cuts arguably more than it cuts off the upside...
How long will this last? The misinformation around this conflict is crazy. First ships were passing through strait of Hormuz; now Iran saying they aren’t. 😵🙄
Kenya announced it will not seek IMF financing for the current fiscal year, raising roughly $4.5 billion through a pipeline IPO, Safaricom stake sale and Eurobond issuance—about five times the Fund’s typical offer. The move spotlights the structural imbalance in the...
Atlantic Council vice‑president and Scowcroft Center senior director Matthew Kroenig appeared on the BBC on April 7 to discuss the Trump administration’s approach toward Iran. He evaluated the “maximum pressure” campaign, its diplomatic ramifications, and the potential for escalation. Kroenig also...
My new framework: We are in a productivity boom inside a government sovereign debt bubble that causes geopolitical & demographic issues- these issues mask themselves as stagflationary. In a productivity boom there are massive winners and losers. Passive management doesn’t work well...
US-Iran ceasefire under strain as Pakistan reports violations, Tehran accuses Israel of breaching deal Iran says it's mulling withdrawal from ceasefire, Hormuz closed again
Iran briefly shut the Strait of Hormuz and began levying steep fees on transiting tankers, effectively turning the waterway into a tollbooth. Although a ceasefire has been brokered, the fee‑collection mechanism remains active, targeting vessels that are not subject to...
The US is going full speed towards a debt crisis: - Interest rates are high - The dollar is weakening - Bond yields are skyrocketing This is going to be disastrous for families...
The Trump trade world is focused on making sure that software and e-commerce happens tariff-free. How does this boost of big tech help re-industrialize? Remember, if we are asking for stuff for Google, we are giving up stuff for people...
Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union announced a $1‑per‑barrel toll payable in Bitcoin for tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Vessels must email cargo details, receive an assessment and settle the fee within seconds using Bitcoin before being...
Next week's macro docket is nuts. The IMF will update its WEO; China Q1 GDP; Bank earnings start and the Fed Beige Book will inform the Apr 29 FOMC decision (among other many other listings). Are we going to be...
$HYG Daily. High Yield Corporate Bond ETF gapping up to 200-day moving average. With Fed Minutes today, then major macro rest of week, am watching to see late-cycle concerns reappear https://t.co/s1J9PRXCS5
North Korea’s economy remains a statistical black hole, with the South Korean central bank estimating a 2024 GDP of roughly $26 billion—about $1,000 per capita. Researchers Haggard, Kim and Lee outline a forensic‑economics toolkit that leverages satellite night‑lights, mirror trade data,...
Some catalysts over the next hour or so... 1pm ET - WH Press conference re: difference between Iran 10 and American 15 point plans 1:15pm - Netanyahu press conference re ceasefire 2pm - March FOMC minutes
The spike in fertiliser costs is not a food security problem in many nations (and particularly, in developing Asian countries). Instead, it's a fiscal shock problem for the governments subsidizing their consumption.
Reform UK, the right‑wing party led by Nigel Farage, warned it will stop issuing visas to nationals of countries demanding reparations for the transatlantic slave trade. The party cited roughly 3.8 million visas granted over the past 20 years to those nations...
Exclusive: Rusal plans to reroute aluminum from China to Japan as Iran conflict reshapes trade, sources say https://t.co/Rn0kOg7gVj
The market priced as a short-term shock, not structural change: bond yields rose, but long-term inflation expectations did not -> real yields moved rose, a headwind to price of gold.
The European Union is tightening its Individual Vehicle Approval rules, which could prevent U.S. full‑size pickups such as the Ford F‑150 from being sold in Europe. American automakers argue the move creates a non‑tariff barrier that conflicts with the US‑EU...
