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IEA Lowers 2026 Oil Demand Forecast on Economic Uncertainty, Higher Prices

The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 850,000 barrels per day, down from a previous estimate amid heightened economic uncertainty and rising crude prices. Demand gains will come entirely from non‑OECD economies, with China contributing roughly 200,000 barrels per day, but growth is shifting toward petrochemical feedstocks, which now account for over half of the increase. Global oil supply contracted sharply in January, falling by 1.2 million barrels per day due to weather‑related shutdowns and sanctions, though production is expected to rebound in the latter half of the year. Inventories have swelled to record levels, providing a price floor despite the overall surplus.