Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as fuel cuts mask rising core inflation
The consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% forecast, helped by a temporary fuel excise cut that lowered transport costs. Meanwhile, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
The Market Is Steady/Doing Better Through the CPI Shock
The U.S. Consumer Price Index showed core inflation rising 0.4% month‑over‑month, beating the 0.3% forecast, while headline CPI matched expectations at 0.6%. Year‑over‑year, core CPI climbed to 2.8% versus a 2.7% estimate, and the headline rate held at 3.8%, keeping inflation above the 2% target since March 2021. Treasury yields ticked higher, with the 2‑year at 3.962% and the 10‑year at 4.422%. In pre‑market trading, equities slipped modestly, oil hovered around $100.75, and major FX pairs traded near key moving averages.
Core Services Inflation Spikes, Undermining Tariff‑only Narrative
The optimistic story on inflation has been that the recent firming has been tariff-led (which would show up in goods) and therefore won't be sustained as tariffs aren't going to ratchet higher year after year. The April CPI, in isolation, isn't...
Rising CPI Makes Rate Cuts Hard for New Fed Chair
Latest CPI report underscores how tough it will be for Warsh to deliver cuts once he takes over as Fed chair. Core CPI is up 0.4% in April, or 2.8% compared to the same time last year. This comes on...
Poonam Gupta: Prosperous States for a Prosperous India
Poonam Gupta addressed the Columbia Indian Economy Summit 2026, outlining India’s accelerating economic growth over four decades. She highlighted that real GDP growth rose from 5.7% in the 1980s to 7.7% in the most recent four‑year period. Gupta then examined...
Russia Slashes 2026‑29 Growth Forecast, Holds Oil Price Steady
“Russia has cut its economic growth forecast for 2026 and the following three years but left unchanged the projected oil price despite the spike in global prices driven by the war in the Middle East, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak...
CPI Spikes to 3.8%, Dampening Rate‑cut Hopes
Inflation CPI just came at 3.8% higher then expected. Last month CPI was 3.3%. Inflation is running hot & this will lower the chance of rate cuts
Quality Standards Key to Manufacturing Push; Toy Sector Turned Net Exporter After QCOs: Consumer Affairs Secretary Nidhi
India is prioritising quality compliance over cost in its manufacturing drive, expanding Quality Control Orders (QCO) to cover 723 products. The toy sector, once a net importer, has become a net exporter after a 2021 quality order, illustrating the policy’s...
US Inflation Spikes to 3.8% in April, Driven by Gas
JUST IN: U.S. inflation jumped to 3.8% (y/y) in April--> the highest in three years. This is painful for Americans, especially moderate-income households. Inflation rose 0.6% in the month of April due to soaring gas prices that accounted for over 40%...
Inflation Surged in April to the Highest Rate Since 2023
U.S. consumer prices accelerated to a 3.8% year‑over‑year rise in April, the fastest pace since 2023, driven largely by a 17.9% surge in energy costs. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, climbed to 2.8% YoY, edging above expectations....
Plan to Extend Mnangagwa's Term Threatens Zimbabwe Debt Relief
Zimbabwe’s effort to restructure its $23 billion sovereign debt has hit a political roadblock as a constitutional amendment seeks to extend President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s tenure to 2030, sidestepping required referendums. The move has alarmed international lenders—including the World Bank, Paris Club,...
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African Leaders Push Credit Reforms at Nairobi Summit with France
African leaders at the Nairobi Africa Forward Summit urged reforms to credit‑rating methodologies, arguing that perceived risk inflates borrowing costs. French President Emmanuel Macron pledged support for a first‑loss guarantee to de‑risk African investments and will lobby for it at...
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Israel Sent Iron Dome Air Defense Systems to UAE, US Envoy Says
Israel has transferred Iron Dome air‑defense batteries and trained personnel to the United Arab Emirates, according to U.S. envoy Mike Huckabee. The move aims to bolster the UAE’s ability to intercept Iranian missile and drone attacks that have intensified since...
Ramaphosa’s Political Peril Earns Shrug From Investors for Now
South Africa’s rand remains steady despite looming impeachment talks against President Cyril Ramaphosa. The president rebuffed calls to resign in a televised address, while a court ruling on May 8 revived a 2022 farm‑theft scandal that fuels the political drama. Investors appear...
Markets Brace for Hotter US Inflation, Stocks Fall
🚨 US Inflation Report on Tap - Markets are bracing for a hotter inflation print: ⬇️ Stocks ⬇️ Gold ⬆️ USD ⬆️ Yields Here’s what everyone is watching 👇 CPI - MoM 0.6% forecast, 0.9% prior CPI - YoY 3.7% forecast, 3.3% prior CPI Core MoM -...
USD Is Higher to Start the US Session. Yields and Oil Higher. Stocks Lower. CPI Awaited.
The U.S. dollar opened the North American session higher, gaining 0.36% against the euro, 0.27% versus the yen and 0.62% versus the pound as traders brace for the key CPI release. Core CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% month‑over‑month and...
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NEWSFLASH: Unemployment Rate Rises 1.3 Percentage Points to 32.7%
South Africa’s unemployment rate climbed to 32.7% in Q1 2026, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous quarter. The labour force survey shows employment fell by 345,000 while the unemployed rose by 301,000, pushing the jobless share near its pandemic‑era peak....
Chinese Energy Plans to Shake up Shipping, Warns Danish Ship Finance
China’s latest five‑year plan emphasizes energy self‑sufficiency and green logistics, signaling a structural shift in global trade patterns. The plan reinforces the Belt and Road Initiative and encourages new port investments, which could reroute bulk cargo away from traditional Europe‑Asia...
Global Travel & Tourism Growth to Outpace Wider Economy by 1.5 Times Over the Next Decade
The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) projects the global travel and tourism sector will generate $12 trillion in 2026, representing 9.9% of world GDP and growing 3.2%—well ahead of the 2.4% pace of the broader economy. The industry will support...
Credit Card Debt May Be Keeping the Mexican Economy Afloat
Mexico’s economy is contracting and job creation remains weak, yet consumer spending has not fallen as sharply as expected. In Q1 2026, consumer credit rose 7.2% year‑over‑year, with car loans surging 11.2% while vehicle sales grew only 3.7%. Banks are loosening...
Brazilian Table Grapes Seal Zero-Tariff Deal with the EU
Brazilian table grapes entered the EU tariff‑free on May 1 under the provisional EU‑Mercosur agreement, marking the first phase of a broader trade liberalisation. The deal eliminates duties on nearly 39% of Brazilian agri‑products now, with a target of 93% tariff‑free...
Chinese Cars Surge Abroad as Foreign Share in China Halves
"The market share of foreign auto firms in China has almost halved in five years, to around 30% in 2025. Moreover, in 2023 China passed Japan to become the world’s largest exporter of cars. In 2025 over 8 million of...
India-Oman FTA Likely to Come Into Force From June 1: Piyush Goyal
India and Oman will activate their free‑trade agreement on June 1, 2026, granting India duty‑free access to 98% of its exports, including textiles, agricultural and leather goods. In return, India will lower tariffs on Omani dates, marble and petrochemical products. Simultaneously, New...
InvestingLive European FX News Wrap: JPY Whipsaws, Risk Mood on the Defensive
The European trading session turned defensive as markets awaited the U.S. CPI report amid heightened geopolitical tension over the U.S.-Iran stalemate. The Japanese yen whipsawed early, briefly falling before rebounding to the key resistance around 158.00 following suspected intervention and...
The US and China Are Saving Oil From a Crisis
U.S. crude exports have surged to a record‑high, while China’s oil imports have slipped, together cushioning global oil prices despite the ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict. The United States is drawing down its Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a slower pace, signaling confidence...
Global Supply Dashboard to Go Live for Public Access on May 15
Malaysia’s Economy Ministry and the Department of Statistics will launch the Global Supply Crisis Monitoring Dashboard for public use on May 15, 2026. The portal features ten sub‑menus covering energy, commodities, cost of living, economic performance, FX rates and trade...
M'tourist Private Feed Recap
The Macrotourist released its private feed recap for Monday, May 11, 2026, available only to paid subscribers. The post links to a private Twitter‑style feed and includes a brief author byline featuring Kevin Muir. No specific market data or analysis...
Separate Fiscal and Monetary Policies Fuel Economic Stagnation
The current government doesn’t have a plan because they treat monetary and fiscal policy as two separates. 🇿🇦 Without treating fiscal and monetary policies as a single, integrated toolkit that achieves the state's economic goals, then stagnation will persist.
Iran Expands Strait of Hormuz Claim to 200 Km Radius
MAP OF THE DAY: Iran is claiming a much wider geographical footprint for the Strait of Hormuz than before, according to state media. Tehran says the SoH area goes from the port of Jask in the Gulf of Oman to...
How Geopolitics Rewrote the Logic of Global Shipping
For most of the 20th century, ocean carriers chose routes solely on distance, seeking the cheapest fuel burn and fastest transit. Recent geopolitical shocks—such as the Red Sea Houthi attacks, the 2021 Suez Canal blockage, and sanctions stemming from the...
South Africa Unemployment Spikes to 32.7%, 345k Jobs Lost
South Africa's official unemployment rate rises to 32.7% in Q1. A total of 345 000 jobs were lost in the first three months of 2026.
Labour Calls for Fiscal Rules, Lower Borrowing, Growth‑Driven Inflation Fight
From the many conversations I've had with my Labour colleagues in Parliament, there is a consensus about the importance of setting out clear fiscal rules and getting the cost of borrowing down. The best way to address the cost of...
‘Telling People to Not Buy Gold Has the Opposite Effect’: Deepak Shenoy Shares Other Ways to Reduce Import Bill
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s austerity drive includes a year‑long ban on gold purchases to curb the $51 billion FY25 import bill. Investor Deepak Shenoy argues the ban backfires and proposes supply‑side solutions: the RBI selling 200 tonnes of its gold reserves...
UK 30-Year Gilt Yield Hits 1998 High
The yield on the UK 30-year gilt is at its highest level since 1998 https://t.co/zXuKq5q17b
Iran War Spikes Inflation to Three‑year High
It's Stupid's Economy > It's the Economy, Stupid. Iran war pushed inflation to highest rate in nearly three years https://t.co/VnDzjVJ3Os
Core CPI at 0.4% Could Yield 4.9% YoY
A Multipolar World - Got Hard Assets? CPI Core MoM: 0.4% vs 0.3% exp. If monthly CPI rises by 0.4% each month for the next 12 months and compounds, the year-over-year CPI inflation rate over 12 months would...
Fuel Oil Spikes 54%, Gasoline up 28% in Year
Price changes over last year (April CPI report) Fuel Oil: +54.3% Gasoline: +28.4% Electricity: +6.1% Transportation: +4.3% Apparel: +4.2% Overall CPI: +3.8% Food away from home: +3.6% Shelter: +3.3% Medical Care: +3.2% Gas Utilities: +3.0% Food at home: +2.9% New Cars: +0.2% Used Cars: -2.7%
Inflation Outpaces Wage Gains, Squeezing American Finances
JUST IN: Inflation is now eating up all wage gains for the first time in about three years. This is painful for Americans and a true financial squeeze. CPI Inflation in past year: 3.8% Wage gains: in past year: 3.6% https://t.co/dNa5VvS5DE
Inflation Surges Above Expectations in Latest Report
Latest inflation report just dropped, and it came in hot, and slightly hotter than most folks expected. https://t.co/TTvmbXLQ8r
Trump’s Beijing Summit Likely to Address Iran Issue
“When President Trump arrives in Beijing this week for a summit with Xi Jinping, the Iran file will likely be on the agenda—whether or not either leader wants it there.” @Lingling_Wei https://t.co/Ki2rwF4UjY https://t.co/Ki2rwF4UjY
China's Mercantilist Squeeze Threatens Developing Economies
Important NEW paper @PIIE China's mercantilist squeeze on developing economies by @arvindsubraman @shoumitro_c Who really is harmed by China Shock 2.0
Dollar Weakens, Yields Rise: Loose Policy Warning
Dollar down, yields up. In normal times these are positively correlated. When they diverge and the currency weakens while bonds sell off, it's telling you policy is too loose. Japan has been ground zero for this dynamic. Watch closely to see...
Xi Warns Trump: Sanctions Will Burn Like Hot Stove
In a prelude to the Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing on the 14-15, Chairman Xi has introduced Trump to the Chinese hot stove. When the US takes a threatening and belligerent action with sanctions and tariffs, it will touch a hot stove...
Liquidity Flood, Not War, Drives Recent Inflation Surge
Global money supply surged by $17T in the last 2 years. War is not the only driver of inflation. Policymakers have been pouring liquidity into the system the entire time. https://t.co/EMI08NkIDG https://t.co/kavJQEnfrx
Low‑Inflation Era Ends; Global Debt Pressures Rise
For the decade before COVID, we were all convinced inflation would always be low and so interest rates would always be low too. That's over. I talked about the global debt overhang and how the UK isn't an outlier in...
Broken Economic Structure Fuels Cost Crisis and Stagnation
The cost of living crisis and our low growth are two symptoms of the same problem: an economic structure that hasn’t been working for a long time. We need to take on the root causes of those costs. https://t.co/WySWCVS5a9
Europe’s Center Crumbles; UK Embraces Free‑Rising Yields
The UK isn't an outlier. The implosion of the political center is happening across Europe. The fact that fiscal space is exhausted is also true for many countries. What the UK gets right is to let yields rise freely. Only...
Ceasefire Uncertainty Dampens Risk, Lifts Dollar, Fuels Oil
Ceasefire is on "Life Support": Saps Risk Appetites, Buoys the Greenback: The uncertainty about the US-Iran fragile ceasefire, which President Trump has said is on “life support” is weighing on risk-taking appetites today. Brent and WTI are up over $3…...
Geopolitical Turmoil and Political Instability Drive Global Yield Surge
The rise in long-term gov't bond yields isn't about any one thing. There's unstable global geopolitics, with Iran the latest symptom. There's the collapse in politics as usual, with the UK in focus. All this pushes up 10y10y forward yields...
Dialogue with OPEC Boosts Global Energy Security Amid Conflict
Productive meeting with @OPECSecretariat Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais in Vienna We discussed the latest developments in global energy markets amid the war in the Middle East and the importance of dialogue and exchanges in support of global energy security https://t.co/gSaCl0O8VS
USD Strength Amid Fragile Ceasefire Drags Markets Lower
$USD is bid. Fragility of ceasefire weighs on sentiment. Drags equities and bonds lower. PBOC set $USD fix at new multiyear low. Bessent and Japanese officials talk fx but $JPY falls to new 5-day low. US CPI on...