Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global Economy Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Foreign investors hold over $35 trillion in U.S. assets amid market turbulence
Foreign investors now control more than $35 trillion in U.S. stocks and bonds, up from roughly $31 trillion a year earlier. Despite the April 2025 tariff‑driven market dip, they added about $1.5 trillion in net purchases, signaling continued confidence in the U.S. financial system.
The Asian Development Bank raised its forecast for India’s FY 26 GDP growth to 6.9%, citing resilient domestic demand and the recent easing of U.S. tariffs on Indian exports. The projection contrasts with the Reserve Bank of India’s more bullish 7.6% estimate, underscoring divergent outlooks among major forecasters. ADB also sees growth accelerating to 7.3% in FY 27, driven by reforms and new trade deals, while inflation is expected to climb to 4.5% in FY 26 before moderating to 4.0% the following year.
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Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told a Cuban press conference that Moscow will not abandon its strategic partnership with Cuba, pledging continued energy assistance beyond the recent delivery of 700,000 barrels of oil on the sanctioned tanker Anatoly Kolodkin. He...
@hofunghung makes an important point: "In many ways the dynamics of China's external lending are very similar to the dynamics of China's internal lending". In either case, he argues, the purpose of the project funded is to generate demand and employment...
India Inc is rapidly reactivating exports to the Middle East following a two‑week Iran ceasefire that reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Pharma, packaged‑food and electrical‑goods manufacturers report rising demand as regional inventories are restocked and reconstruction projects loom. Companies such...
The episode opens with Julian Hoffman dissecting the shaky US‑Iran ceasefire, highlighting the lack of clear terms, ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, and the mixed market reaction that has nonetheless lifted European equities and trimmed oil prices. The...
The United States has installed an interim caretaker government in Venezuela after removing President Maduro, opening the door to a potential economic rebound driven by oil, mining and diaspora capital. Restoring oil production could require more than $100 billion and a...
Iranian state media rejected reports of a U.S. delegation in Islamabad, insisting talks will only resume after a Lebanon ceasefire. Japan’s finance minister Shunichi Katayama warned of possible FX intervention as oil‑driven volatility spikes, while the Bank of Japan flagged...
The IMF’s COFER data show the U.S. dollar’s share of global foreign‑exchange reserves has slipped, driven by a weaker dollar and a rally in gold prices. When exchange‑rate effects are stripped out, the dollar’s share actually rose after 2024 Q4,...
Kevin Gallagher and Rebecca Ray: "Given that financing from the World Bank and its counterparts has remained stagnant since the 1990s, China has helped fill widening infrastructure gaps across the Global South. That’s the good news. The bad news is...
China’s March CPI eased to 1.0% YoY, reflecting typical post‑Lunar price declines, while the PPI rebounded to 0.5% YoY – the first positive reading since September 2022. Energy‑related subcomponents, especially transportation fuel, surged sharply, with a 10% month‑on‑month jump, indicating...
The Asian Development Bank warned that the ongoing US‑Israeli war with Iran will blunt Asia’s growth momentum, revising the region’s 2026 GDP expansion to 5.1% from 5.4% in 2025. If the conflict persists for a year, the bank estimates a...
More than 106 flights linked to Cairo International Airport have been delayed, cancelled or diverted after the Middle East airspace crisis closed key corridors. The surge in unscheduled traffic is straining Egypt’s ground operations and creating a cascade of missed...
There are a lot of stories about Chinese assets acting like havens, especially China IG credit outperforming. How do you square that with a very weak economy? Well, the reason China IG credit is outperforming is because of the weak economy....
✴️All GCC countries reject any proposal to manage or control traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. ✴️The idea of charging fees for passage is complete nonsense. The whole issue is heavily exaggerated by the Western press and many Western analysts. ✴️The $2...
From 29 March to 7 April, the Royal Navy dispatched HMS Mersey, HMS Somerset and HMS St Albans to shadow a series of Russian warships transiting the English Channel and the North Sea. The British vessels tracked the Admiral Grigorovich frigate, the Aleksandr Shabalin tank landing...
Argentina's oil output climbed to a record 874,000 barrels per day, up 15.9% from a year earlier, as the Vaca Muerta shale complex ramps up production. The surge lifts the country's share of global oil supply and fuels optimism on...
The Straits Times Index (STI) is tipped to open above the 5,000‑point mark on Thursday, signaling a shift to positive market sentiment in Singapore. The rally follows a brief two‑day slide and broader optimism sparked by a two‑week US‑Iran ceasefire,...
The Japanese yen slipped back toward ¥159 per dollar and the South Korean won opened at 1,480.6 per dollar as investors reacted to renewed doubts over a newly‑brokered US‑Iran ceasefire. The moves underscore how Middle‑East geopolitics are reverberating through Asian...
European Commission is considering withholding up to €1.5 billion (about $1.6 billion) in conditional funding to Serbia over concerns about democratic backsliding, including recent judicial reforms and media repression. The decision hinges on whether Serbia complies with recommendations from the Council of...
A fragile two‑week U.S.–Iran ceasefire is under pressure as Tehran is accused of keeping the Strait of Hormuz blocked, limiting oil flows to a single tanker and five bulk carriers in the first 24 hours. Israel’s intensified strikes on Lebanon,...
JPMorgan has quantified damage to Gulf oil infrastructure after roughly six weeks of conflict, identifying about 60 energy assets targeted by drones and missiles. Of those, around 50 have sustained varying degrees of damage, ranging from minor repairs to significant...
Trump taking credit that because of him, Strait of Hormuz is open. Are koi samjhao iss mand buddhi Trump ko.. Before u start the war, the strait of hormuz is open for everyone. I don't know why his focus is...
In this episode, host Chad Bowne talks with former U.S. WTO ambassador Maria Pagan about America’s longstanding grievances with the World Trade Organization, focusing on the appellate body, dispute‑settlement reforms, and perceived unfair practices by China. Pagan explains how both...
Indonesia’s president Prabowo Subianto is preparing a visit to Russia, where he is expected to meet Vladimir Putin and discuss potential oil purchases. The Kremlin confirmed talks are underway as Asian nations scramble for alternative energy amid a widening Middle‑East‑driven crisis....
Australia’s tax system increasingly shields wealthy retirees while shifting the fiscal burden onto younger workers. Retirees can hold up to AU$2 million ($1.3 million) in tax‑free super and still pay zero income tax, whereas the share of over‑65s paying tax has dropped...
PeopleForBikes secured a policy win as the Trump administration dropped bicycles, e‑bikes and frames from the 50% Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs, ending a year‑and‑a‑half of tariff uncertainty. The advocacy group rallied manufacturers, retailers and riders, generating 1,300 public comments...
The Morning Brief podcast highlighted how the ongoing Middle‑East crisis is straining India’s export sectors, from leather to textiles and gems & jewellery. Exporters reported rising input costs for leather, a noticeable dip in knitwear demand, and a sharp contraction...
President Trump’s cease‑fire announcement on April 8 sparked hopes that Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but traffic remained minimal. Iran’s recent threats and attacks have slashed daily commercial transits from roughly 130 vessels to only a few, creating...
Saudi officials confirmed that a series of Iranian drone and missile attacks in the past 48 hours severely damaged key oil and gas infrastructure. The East‑West pipeline’s throughput fell by about 700,000 barrels per day, while the Manifa and Khurais...
India’s consumer price index is projected to climb to 3.4% in March 2026, up from 3.2% in February, according to a Mint poll of 16 economists. The modest rise marks a 12‑month high, driven by higher fuel prices and a...
The problem for Iran here is someone is going to call their bluff at some point and just sail a ship through without paying the tribute, and then Iran is going to have to decide if it actually wants to...
A lot of lending to small/midsize companies is for a term of 5 to 7 years. A great deal of debt issued 3/2020 to 9/2021 is therefore coming due these days. UST interest rates were near zero in that issuance...
Foreign portfolio investors dumped over ₹60,000 crore (≈ $7.2 billion) from Indian financial services in the second half of March, the steepest outflow since 2012. The sell‑off peaked at ₹28,824 crore (≈ $3.5 billion) from March 16‑31, contributing 43% of the ₹67,081 crore (≈ $8.1 billion) withdrawn across 21 sectors. Banking...
It’s ugly, but slightly less ugly: US Government Interest Payments, Tax Receipts, Average Interest Rate on the Debt, and Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Q4 2025 https://t.co/DGqm2fqkjX https://t.co/HaOX0c5eRE
The Once Uber-Dovish ECB Continues QT, Shed €66 Billion in March, Has now Shed 50% of QE Assets since Peak. Marking its gold to market every quarter (unlike the Fed), the ECB booked another big write-up of its gold holdings in...
Six-Month Core PCE Inflation (still before Iran War) Jumps by Most since June 2024. The Fed Needs to Pay Attention. “Market-Based Core PCE price index,” which excludes the imputed housing components, spiked by the most since Feb 2023 https://t.co/KOLueRyxu5 https://t.co/DPUqjECgON
China's leaders now at least give lip service to supporting domestic demand -- and sometimes even claim not to want to rely on exports for growth. But in at least one prominent sector, domestic demand is down (autos) 1/ https://t.co/jZxOmf68t9
Middle East Energy Shock Snaps China’s Deflationary Streak—Factory-gate prices rise in China for the first time in over three years @hannahmiao_ https://t.co/8yOC6VYhc5 https://t.co/8yOC6VYhc5
Oil will start flowing "very quickly" with or without the help of Iran, says Trump. Surely, that means within the ceasefire period? If yes, it has to be WITH the help of Iran. https://t.co/zTuohSKNV8
Stocks are rallying on the bet the war will cool off. But inflation was already heating up before the conflict started, and now there's an energy shock on top of tariffs. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/68iJ07VMQU
“I don’t think this war can end if Iran is still running the ‘tollbooth’,” said Ellen R. Wald, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Centre... She said that “Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and other...
Trump Once Talked Tough With China. Now He’s Playing Nice. The administration has quietly scrapped its previous playbook, adopting a more conciliatory approach to Beijing @heathersomervil @alexbward @GavinBade https://t.co/9teV50Qwnb https://t.co/9teV50Qwnb
Will just say, this is about 3x the 0.3pp estimate that some Fed officials, including Gov Waller, had in the summer of 2025.
Renewables don’t solve oil shocks, says @JasonBordoff They rewire the dependencies. Less oil means more minerals—and supply chains that run through China. And the economy's heavy lifting—mining & global transport—runs on fossil fuels not electricity You don't escape energy risk
This is how Hormuz turns into a debt crisis Borrowing costs are spiking across the developing world—fastest where resilience is weakest. Borrowing costs are up 0.64% in Africa and 0.7% in Asia Energy shock → higher yields → tighter liquidity. https://t.co/Pbx05iepX6 #DebtCrisis #OilMarkets...
South Korea’s GDP per capita outpaces Japan’s by a CONSIDERABLE MARGIN. Between 2008 and 2025, South Korea's labor productivity has grown by 1.53%/yr, while Japan’s productivity has flatlined at 0.03%/yr. SOUTH KOREA IS LEAVING JAPAN IN THE DUST. https://t.co/b4UNREka7X
Good morning, We got PPIs in Japan and China and both are rising. That said, CPI remains subdued thanks to subsidies and weak demand. In other words, we got margin compression as producers are not passing on costs, just yet.
JUST IN: US-Iran ceasefire tensions escalated on April 10, ahead of Pakistan talks, as the US charged Iran with violating Strait of Hormuz commitments and Israel struck Lebanon, which Iran claims breaches the truce.
JUST IN: Oil prices are climbing as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire hasn't increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Ouch…. Government inflation data *excluding* food and energy. Now imagine what the real number looks like. https://t.co/TK6XDWuZDb
