🎯Today's Global Economy Pulse
Updated 24m agoWhat's happening: US growth stalls to 1.4% annualized in Q4 2025 amid fiscal gridlock
The U.S. economy expanded at a 1.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, roughly half of analysts' expectations and the slowest pace since early 2024. The deceleration follows a 4.4% surge in the prior quarter and coincides with heightened legislative gridlock over fiscal policy and the debt ceiling.
News•Feb 12, 2026
Release: Market Participants Survey
On November 9 2026 the Bank of Canada published its quarterly Market Participants Survey, a systematic outreach to a broad cross‑section of financial‑market actors. The survey solicits expectations on key macro‑economic indicators such as inflation, growth, and exchange rates, as well as opinions on the central bank’s monetary‑policy stance. Results are compiled and released publicly to enhance transparency and inform policy deliberations. This release marks the latest data point in the Bank’s ongoing effort to gauge market sentiment ahead of policy meetings.
By Bank of Canada — RSS (site hub)
Social•Feb 12, 2026
From Labor to Compute: Economy’s Next Quantum Leap
1900: Internal Combustion + Electricity = 5x GDP growth. 2026: AGI + Humanoid Robotics + Space-based Energy = 50x GDP growth. This is NOT a cycle; instead, we are in a phase change for the species. The transition from being...
By Peter H. Diamandis
Social•Feb 12, 2026
SOLS: Cheap US Uranium Conversion Monopoly Amid Global Shortage
Thread(1/2) 🧵 We put our SOLS long thesis above the paywall in our Atoms vs. Bits primer yesterday, so I’m also going to summarize for all you degenerates on X. The story is simple: the uranium trade has resulted in nearly every...
By Citrini7 (pseudonymous)
News•Feb 12, 2026
Interest Rate Announcement
On December 9, 2026 the Bank of Canada will release its next overnight rate target, one of eight scheduled policy announcements each year. The press release will outline the economic factors shaping the decision, including inflation trends, labour market conditions, and global...
By Bank of Canada — RSS (site hub)
Social•Feb 12, 2026
Steepening Yield Curve Could Shift QE Benefits to Main Street
How might the Fed/Treasury do that? One possibility is to cut short rates to steepen the yield curve, and deregulate the banks into buying the long end so that the Fed’s balance sheet can be “privatized.” If those QE assets...
By Jurrien Timmer
Social•Feb 12, 2026
Fed Treasury to Coordinate
Things have been quiet on the rate side, with the 10-year yield trading at around 4 ¼ percent and expectations for a few more rate cuts (down to 3.1%) holding firm. We will likely soon have a lot more coordination between...
By Jurrien Timmer
News•Feb 12, 2026
Publication: Summary of Deliberations
The Bank of Canada released a detailed Summary of Deliberations outlining the Governing Council’s discussion of the monetary‑policy decision announced two weeks earlier. The document highlights the Council’s assessment of inflation trends, labour‑market tightness, and the domestic growth outlook. It...
By Bank of Canada — RSS (site hub)
News•Feb 12, 2026
Publication: Summary of Deliberations
The Bank of Canada’s Governing Council released a detailed summary of its monetary‑policy deliberations for the decision announced two weeks ago. The Council kept the policy interest rate steady at 4.75%, citing modest progress toward its 2% inflation target. Officials...
By Bank of Canada — RSS (site hub)
Social•Feb 12, 2026
Price Controls Trigger Chaotic, Uneven Resource Allocation
I'm super excited for my new paper with @ATabarrok and Mark Whitmeyer: "Chaos and Misallocation under Price Controls" During the 1973-74 gasoline crisis, the U.S. had about a 9 percent national shortfall. But that was far from evenly spread out. Over...
By Brian Albrecht
News•Feb 12, 2026
Europe Debates Future Ties with US: Decouple or Double Down?
Europe is split on its future relationship with the United States under President Trump. Eastern European NATO members such as Romania and Lithuania argue for tighter security cooperation and participation in the critical‑minerals ministerial, citing Russian aggression. In contrast, France,...
By The Hill – Defense
News•Feb 12, 2026
Singapore Budget 2026: Key Highlights for HR Leaders, Employers, and Employees
Singapore’s 2026 Budget, delivered by Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, projects growth slowing to 2‑4% and introduces a suite of measures to keep the city‑state competitive. For employers, the budget raises the minimum qualifying salary for new Employment Passes to $6,000...
By Human Resources Online (Asia)
News•Feb 12, 2026
Piero Cipollone: Europe and Monetary Sovereignty
In a February 2026 speech, ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone warned that Europe’s monetary sovereignty is threatened by growing dependencies on foreign payment systems and digital assets. He argued that control over the euro, both in cash and digital...
By European Central Bank — Press/Speeches
Social•Feb 12, 2026
BlockFills Freezes Withdrawals as Crypto Volatility Spikes
First, you lose in a matter of weeks 50%% to 99% - depending on which shitcoin you were duped to invest in - and then they don’t even allow you to withdraw the remaining crumbs of your investments. Standard operating...
By Nouriel Roubini
Social•Feb 12, 2026
China Eases Capital Controls as Asset Buildup Accelerates
China usually liberalizes its financial account when the PBOC (now the state banks) are accumulating assets at too rapid a pace, and it wans the dollar risk to be taken by others ... 1/2
By Brad Setser
News•Feb 12, 2026
Trump Calls India-US Trade Deal ‘Historic’ as Tariff Cuts and Coal Exports Take Centre Stage
President Donald Trump called the newly concluded India‑US trade deal historic, highlighting its potential to expand American energy exports, especially coal. The interim agreement slashes U.S. duties on Indian goods to a uniform 18% across textiles, apparel, chemicals and more,...
By ET EnergyWorld (The Economic Times)
Social•Feb 12, 2026
East Asia Drives Surging Trade Surplus, Currencies Remain Cheap
Bingo And the global trade surplus (ex pharma) is now primarily in China, Taiwan and Korea ... Important qualification to the now standard argument the dollar has gotten weaker (which is true primarily if the clock starts at the end of 24,...
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 12, 2026
Excess Wealth vs Limited Cash Fuels Asset Bubbles
Wealth isn’t worth anything unless it can be converted into money to spend. And when there’s a lot of wealth relative to the amount of hard money available — like we’re seeing today — bubbles are created. @nikhilkamathcio https://t.co/iBiRkkv7Ok
By Ray Dalio
News•Feb 12, 2026
Fed Should ‘Aggressively’ Be Cutting Rates, Investor Says Amid Jobs Report Release
Anthony Pompliano, CEO of Professional Capital Management, argued on “Making Money” that the Federal Reserve should aggressively cut interest rates following the latest jobs report. He noted that the labor market remains solid but still offers room for monetary easing...
By Fox Business — Bonds (section)
Social•Feb 12, 2026
Productivity Gains Are the Real Driver of Inflation
Posted this thread two years ago on the enigmatic relationship between inflation and productivity, and more relevant now than ever—
By Jeff Park
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News•Feb 11, 2026
What To Expect From Friday's Report On Inflation
Economists expect the January Consumer Price Index to rise 2.5% year‑over‑year, a dip from December’s 2.7% and the lowest headline inflation since May 2021. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, is also projected at 2.5%, matching the lowest...
By Investopedia — Economics
News•Feb 11, 2026
The UK Chagos Deal Is an 'Act of Great Stupidity'
The United Kingdom has announced a plan to transfer sovereignty over the Chagos Islands to an unrelated African nation, sparking alarm among security analysts. The islands host Diego Garcia, a joint U.S.–U.K. military base that underpins American power projection across...
By RealClearWorld – Security/Defense (alt aggregation)
News•Feb 11, 2026
Western Europe in a Multipolar World
The global order has moved from Cold‑War bipolarity to a multipolar system where the United States, Russia and a rising China dominate international affairs. Technological globalization and interdependence have intensified, reshaping how Western Europe engages with these powers. The article...
By RealClearWorld – Security/Defense (alt aggregation)
News•Feb 11, 2026
Ex-Prince Andrew Suggested Uranium Investments to Epstein: BBC
A confidential UK briefing on high‑value minerals in Afghanistan’s Helmand province, highlighting uranium among other resources, was forwarded by former trade envoy Prince Andrew to Jeffrey Epstein in 2010. The document, prepared during Andrew’s official visit, outlined potential low‑cost extraction...
By MINING.com
News•Feb 11, 2026
Lloyds Banking Group to Close Another 95 Branches
Lloyds Banking Group announced it will shut 95 more branches – 53 Lloyds, 31 Halifax and 11 Bank of Scotland locations – between May 2024 and March 2027. The closures will leave the group with about 610 branches after the...
By BBC News – Business
News•Feb 11, 2026
Would You Pay £7.50 for a Pint of Guinness?
The Advocate Arms in Market Rasen is polling patrons on a possible £7.50 price for a pint of Guinness, up from its current £6. Diageo says the increase translates to roughly £0.04 per draught pint and stresses that retail pricing...
By BBC News – Business
Social•Feb 11, 2026
Labor Market Rebounds After Shutdown, Easing Temporary Layoffs
The labor market showed signs of healing late in 2025 and in January. Catch up following long government shutdown helps alleviate ranks of those suffering temporary layoffs and forced to accept part instead of full-time jobs. Some healthy churn returned...
By Diane Swonk
Social•Feb 11, 2026
2027 AI Race: Align or Lose Human Relevance
🚨 From Agent-1 to Superintelligence: The AI 2027 Scenario The AI 2027 Report outlines one of the most thought-provoking trajectories for artificial intelligence: a rapid evolution from simple assistants (Agent-1) to autonomous, adversarially misaligned systems (Agent-4) and ultimately to Agent-5 —...
By Giuliano Liguori
News•Feb 11, 2026
What Rubio Gets Right (and Wrong) About the Western Hemisphere
Juan S. González argues that U.S. security hinges on a stable Western Hemisphere, echoing Roosevelt’s Monroe‑Doctrine insight. He praises Secretary of State Marco Rubio for recognizing the need for proactive engagement but criticizes Rubio’s reliance on coercion and short‑term pressure....
By Foreign Policy
Social•Feb 11, 2026
January Jobs Spark Rate‑cut Doubts Despite Solid Hires
Analytically, the January U.S. jobs report supports competing views. The market reaction, however, was clear: traders have sharply dialed back expectations for a June rate cut. The big beat on January job creation, paired with a dip in the unemployment rate...
By Mohamed El‑Erian
News•Feb 11, 2026
Kroenig on NPR on Iran
Atlantic Council vice‑president and Scowcroft Center senior director Matthew Kroenig appeared on NPR on Feb. 11 to discuss the Trump administration’s ongoing negotiations with Iran. He outlined the limited progress of back‑channel talks aimed at reviving a nuclear agreement and highlighted...
By Atlantic Council
Social•Feb 11, 2026
Strong Payrolls Fail to Boost Dollar, Correlation Shifts
Tepid response of the Dollar to a big upside surprise in payrolls. The whisper number for consensus was weak, so this was a solid beat, yet USD is barely able to rise. We're on our way to the correlation switch...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 11, 2026
US Backs Coal Revival as Indonesia Slashes Output
Two major coal developments in the last 24 hours. 1. White House announcing purchases and support to revive the industry 2. Indonesia just ordered the world's largest nickel mine to sharply cut output. They are also looking to cut coal production by...
By Quinn Thompson
Blog•Feb 11, 2026
Asia’s Administrative Arms Race: How U.S.-China Strategic Competition Is Reshaping Economic Statecraft
China has invoked its Export Control Law to ban dual‑use exports to Japan and tighten rare‑earth licensing, signaling a new escalation in its diplomatic dispute with Tokyo. The move follows a broader trend of Beijing building offensive economic statecraft tools,...
By Just Security
Podcast•Feb 11, 2026•38 min
Credit Crunch: Investor Survey 1Q - Fed, Earnings, Tech Supply
In this episode, Mahesh Bhimalingam of Bloomberg Intelligence and Ashwin Palta of BNY Investments discuss the Bloomberg Intelligence 1Q26 Investor Survey, highlighting the continued resilience of credit and high‑yield markets despite recent tariff shocks and rate volatility. They examine why...
By FICC Focus
News•Feb 11, 2026
Fear Grows That AI Is Permanently Eliminating Jobs
A growing chorus of workers, researchers, and public figures warn that artificial intelligence could permanently eliminate millions of jobs. MIT researchers estimate current AI systems can automate tasks performed by over 20 million American workers, roughly 12 % of the labor force,...
By Futurism AI
News•Feb 11, 2026
Oatly Loses Long-Running 'Milk' Battle with Dairy Lobby
Oatly has lost a UK Supreme Court ruling that bars the company from trademarking or using the phrase “post‑milk generation” in its marketing, after Dairy UK argued that the term “milk” should be reserved for animal‑derived products. The court affirmed earlier...
By BBC News – Business
Social•Feb 11, 2026
Strong NFP Spurs Fed Pause, Dollar Gains, Market Pullback
NFP BREAKDOWN : Unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% while headline number crushed the expectations. In simple words , this was a much solid NFP all across the board. FED pause will continue. Profit taking in Gold , SPX , NASDAQ on reduced rate cut...
By tradeloq
Social•Feb 11, 2026
US Grads Face Higher Unemployment; Eurozone More Educated Workforce
Very striking data these a. on US graduate unemployment and b. higher share of tertiary education in Eurozone labor force than in the US. Explore these economic insights in today's Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/xNeFQVgZKf
By Adam Tooze
Social•Feb 11, 2026
Big Tech Buys Trump Tariff Exemptions, Small Firms Suffer
Big Tech and their lobbyist have bought exemptions from Trump’s tariffs. Meanwhile, the small fries are getting FRIED. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = THE BIG GUYS CAN ALWAYS BUY AN EXEMPTION. https://t.co/zlVn4ornDl
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 11, 2026
New Jobs Report: What It Means for You
Latest jobs report just dropped. Let's spend a few minutes talking about what's really going on, what it means for you, and what to keep your eye on. https://t.co/ptv6DbFqKM
By Justin Wolfers
Social•Feb 11, 2026
Argentina's 32% Inflation Signals Milei Must Dollarize
Argentina’s January inflation came in at a RED HOT 32.4%/yr. Pres. Milei’s monetary model is not working. MILEI MUST DOLLARIZE NOW. https://t.co/MLSKqYfys7
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 11, 2026
USDJPY Plunges 2.5% in Three Days, Reversal Uncertain
$USDJPY is down over -2.5% over the past three days. One of the biggest drops in the past year and a half. Doesn't mean it has to stall and reverse though... https://t.co/LRjhnctyzL
By John Kicklighter
Social•Feb 11, 2026
US Household Debt Peaks at $18.8T, Delinquencies Surge
US household debt just hit $18.8 TRILLION. Consumer delinquencies are at their HIGHEST LEVEL in nearly a DECADE. Not a good sign. https://t.co/PHcOGrhvOc
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 11, 2026
NFPs Surge Past Forecasts, yet 2025 Revisions Cut Million
#NFPs beat expectations by the most in 10 months - a 130K vs 40K expected. That said, revisions aggregated through 2025 have lowered the year's total by over 1 million https://t.co/p1pkqEWC57
By John Kicklighter
Social•Feb 11, 2026
President's Attempt to Manipulate Job Data Failed
My menchies show a lotta distrust about the official jobs numbers right now. Lemme be clear: I don't believe there's *any* political meddling in these numbers. While the President has tried to mess with the BLS, he failed. I explain in...
By Justin Wolfers
Social•Feb 11, 2026
2025 Job Growth Halved by New BLS Revision
Every year the BLS does a benchmark revision which incorporates new and more detailed information. This year's revision suggests that 2025 was a far worse year than earlier estimates suggested, and total job growth was less than half that suggested...
By Justin Wolfers
Social•Feb 11, 2026
Manufacturing Payrolls Rise, Private Jobs Surge, Unemployment Falls
First positive manufacturing payrolls in a very long time, private payrolls surging, UR down. The economy is re-accelerating https://t.co/sbUBFBA4SA
By Felix Jauvin
Social•Feb 11, 2026
One Sector Drives All US Job Growth, Others Lose
The U.S. job market is very unbalanced right now. One sector more than accounts for all jobs growth over the past year. The rest of the economy is shedding jobs. https://t.co/EGsnQj04uA
By Justin Wolfers
Social•Feb 11, 2026
North Korea's Inflation Hits 74.6%, World’s Third Highest
#NKWatch🇰🇵: Today, I measure North Korea’s inflation at 74.6%/yr. This makes North Korea the WORLD'S THIRD-HIGHEST INFLATOR. SUPREME LEADER KIM JONG UN = KILLING NORTH KOREA'S ECONOMY. https://t.co/iTKJhtxWvr
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 11, 2026
Strong January Jobs, Lower Unemployment Boost USD Despite Cut Expectations
Jan jobs data better than expected and benchmark revision more or less in line. Unemployment rate ticks lower. $USD jump sold into quickly. Mkt still pricing in around two cuts this year.
By Marc Chandler