Friday Footnotes: What's Happening In China
•February 6, 2026
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Why It Matters
China's grain import capacity directly influences U.S. soybean and corn exporters, affecting farm incomes and commodity prices worldwide. Understanding the combined effects of weather anomalies and contamination concerns helps market participants anticipate supply constraints and adjust strategies in a volatile trade environment.
Friday Footnotes: What's Happening In China
Someone asked me the other day to name something that keeps me up at night. And while there are plenty of things competing for that title lately, this week it’s the situation in China and what it could mean for their imports in the months ahead.
From whether they can meet President Trump’s recently promised additional 8 mmt or 294 million bushels of soybean purchases, or the 25 mmt in new crop, to one of the wettest falls on record, there is a lot happening. Some of it, like US soybeans imports have been widely discussed, while other developments, like nearly 1.2 billion bushels of corn thought to be contaminated with toxins have received far less attention.
This week, I want to dig into what’s happening in China across the grain space.
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