Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights (and Week in Review)- 11-17th April 2026:

Key Takeaways

• US‑Iran talks in Islamabad aim to extend two‑week ceasefire
• Q1 S&P 500 earnings forecast 13.2% YoY EPS growth
• China's March trade surplus expected near $110 bn, down from $214 bn
• ECB keeps deposit rate at 2.00% while signaling possible April hike
• Australia's unemployment steadies at 4.1% as job vacancies rise 2.7%

Pulse Analysis

The upcoming US‑Iran dialogue in Islamabad carries outsized weight for markets. A successful extension of the ceasefire would ease pressure on oil supplies, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, and could dampen the recent spike in energy prices that has been feeding into global inflation. Conversely, a breakdown would likely reignite geopolitical risk premiums, prompting a flight to safety and tightening of commodity spreads. Investors are therefore monitoring the composition of the delegations and any early signals of agreement, as these will feed directly into short‑term price dynamics for crude, currencies, and risk assets.

On the economic front, the US earnings season sets a bullish tone, with FactSet estimating a 13.2% EPS increase for the S&P 500 in the first quarter—its sixth consecutive double‑digit growth quarter. This optimism is bolstered by solid revenue gains across technology, communications, and financials. At the same time, China’s March trade data is expected to show a $110 bn surplus, a significant contraction from the $214 bn surplus recorded earlier in the year, reflecting slower export momentum and higher import costs amid higher crude prices. The US PPI report, which showed a 0.7% month‑over‑month rise in February, underscores lingering wholesale‑inflation pressures that could influence Fed policy deliberations.

European central banks remain on guard. The ECB’s decision to hold the deposit rate at 2.00% while leaving the door open for an April hike signals a data‑dependent stance amid Middle‑East volatility. The SNB’s minutes reveal a heightened willingness to intervene in foreign‑exchange markets, reflecting concerns over currency swings tied to energy shocks. Down under, Australia’s labor market shows resilience, with unemployment hovering at 4.1% and vacancies up 2.7%, supporting the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish bias. Together, these data points create a nuanced backdrop for investors: strong corporate earnings and stable labor markets may sustain equity rallies, but geopolitical uncertainty and sticky inflation could keep central banks cautious, prompting a balanced approach to risk allocation.