Jorgovanka Tabaković: Industrial Policy Supporting Serbia's Long-Term Economic Growth

Why It Matters

The data demonstrate Serbia’s resilience and capacity to attract investment, positioning the economy for higher growth despite geopolitical shocks. Stable monetary conditions and strong reserves create a predictable environment crucial for businesses and foreign investors.

Key Takeaways

• Inflation 2.7% end‑2025, within target band.
• Dinar exchange rate changed only 0.2% in 2025.
• Gold reserves now 53.4 tonnes, 25% of FX reserves.
• Exports reached record €48 bn, export‑import ratio 92%.
• Non‑performing loans at historic low 2.1%.

Pulse Analysis

Serbia’s macro‑economic landscape is being reshaped by global volatility, accelerated AI adoption, and sanctions that test national resilience. In this context, the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) has prioritized proactive monetary policy, diversification of financing sources, and long‑term growth sustainability. By anchoring inflation at 2.7% and keeping the dinar virtually unchanged against the euro, the NBS has insulated the economy from external shocks, reinforcing confidence among investors and domestic firms.

The bank’s balance sheet now boasts record‑high foreign‑exchange and gold reserves, with gold alone representing over a quarter of total reserves. This buffer, combined with a low non‑performing loan ratio of 2.1% and an investment‑grade rating from S&P, underscores a robust financial sector. Credit growth remains healthy, with corporate investment loans up 12.8% and housing loans rising 19%, fueling consumption and supporting a near‑full coverage of consumer baskets by wages. Such fundamentals lay the groundwork for continued export expansion, which hit €48 bn in 2025, pushing the export‑to‑import ratio to 92%.

Looking ahead, the NBS projects GDP growth of 3.5% in 2026 and 5% in 2027, driven by domestic investment, infrastructure projects like "Leap into the Future – Serbia 2027," and a surge in services exports. The bank stresses that stability and predictability are public goods essential for business planning, especially as Serbia pursues a re‑industrialisation strategy focused on high‑value sectors such as automotive, ICT, and advanced agriculture. While risks remain—particularly from geopolitical tensions and inflation deviations—the current policy framework positions Serbia to capitalize on emerging opportunities and sustain its growth trajectory.