Middle East War Threatens African Agriculture

Why It Matters

The crisis exposes Africa’s food‑security and fiscal vulnerabilities, highlighting the urgent need to diversify fertilizer supply chains.

Key Takeaways

• Strait of Hormuz blockage lifts global fertilizer prices ~17%.
• Sudan most exposed; 54% imports from Gulf.
• Smallholders risk reduced fertilizer use, lower yields.
• Local projects like Dangote plant aim to cut import dependence.
• Green ammonia offers long‑term, sustainable fertilizer solution.

Pulse Analysis

The escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz have reverberated far beyond energy markets. While Brent crude briefly touched $120 a barrel, the more subtle shock has been on the fertilizer supply chain that depends on Gulf‑origin ammonia, urea and phosphate. The chokepoint handles a large share of natural‑gas‑derived feedstock, and its disruption pushed fertilizer futures up more than 10% on day one, with analysts projecting a 17% price increase in the first half of 2026. These movements underscore how geopolitical friction can instantly translate into higher input costs for farmers worldwide.

For African agriculture the consequences are immediate and uneven. Nations such as Sudan, which sources over half of its seaborne fertilizer from the Gulf, face the steepest price shock, while Kenya, Tanzania, Somalia, Mozambique, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire also rely heavily on imported inputs. Higher fertilizer costs threaten to curb usage among smallholders operating on thin margins, potentially depressing maize, wheat and cocoa yields and feeding into broader food‑price inflation. Oil‑exporting economies like Nigeria and Angola may see short‑term revenue gains, but the removal of fuel subsidies leaves households vulnerable to the same price volatility.

These risks are prompting a strategic pivot toward domestic fertilizer production. Zambia’s revitalised plants, the $2.5 billion Dangote urea facility in Nigeria, and a pending project in Ethiopia illustrate a growing investment pipeline aimed at reducing import reliance. Parallelly, the continent is exploring green ammonia derived from renewable electricity, a pathway that could decouple fertilizer supply from volatile natural‑gas markets. Yet scaling such capacity demands substantial capital, reliable gas or power infrastructure, and upgraded logistics. In the near term, alternative sourcing from Russia, China or Egypt may fill gaps, but higher prices and longer lead times will likely persist until supply chains stabilise.