USTR Greer: USMCA Can Remain a Trilateral Deal and Handle Bilateral Issues

Why It Matters

The proposed bilateral layers could reshape USMCA enforcement, directly impacting North American agricultural and manufacturing sectors, while the WTO deadlock signals a shift toward more agile trade alliances.

Key Takeaways

• USMCA review starts July 1, targeting bilateral grievances.
• Greer proposes separate protocols for Mexico, Canada within USMCA.
• Trump dissatisfied with USMCA’s trade deficit outcomes.
• WTO deadlock on digital trade moratorium highlighted.
• Smaller trade coalitions favored over 166‑member WTO.

Pulse Analysis

The United States is preparing a comprehensive review of the US‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement (USMCA) that begins on July 1, aiming to resolve a litany of country‑specific issues. Greer’s proposal to "layer over" the existing trilateral pact with distinct protocols for Mexico and Canada reflects a pragmatic approach: preserve the broader market benefits while granting the U.S. targeted leverage on dairy quotas, alcohol bans, and competitive fresh‑produce imports. This hybrid model could set a precedent for future trade pacts that balance collective rules with bilateral flexibility.

Political pressure adds urgency to the review. President Trump has repeatedly voiced frustration that the USMCA has not curbed the sizable goods‑trade deficits with its northern and southern neighbors, a sentiment echoed by agricultural groups that dominate the public comment period. Yet the agreement still commands strong support from industry and lawmakers who see it as a cornerstone of North American supply chains. Greer’s acknowledgment that “everyone suggested changes” signals a willingness to adapt the deal, but any amendment will need to reconcile Trump’s protectionist stance with the private sector’s demand for stability.

Beyond the regional framework, Greer’s criticism of the World Trade Organization’s recent impasse over a digital‑trade moratorium highlights a broader shift in global trade governance. The WTO’s inability to secure even a modest four‑year extension, hampered by divergent positions from Brazil, Turkey, China, and India, suggests that large‑member negotiations are increasingly unwieldy. Greer advocates for a return to smaller, like‑minded coalitions—mirroring the post‑war GATT era—to drive reform. If the U.S. pivots toward such agile alliances, it could reshape the architecture of multilateral trade, offering a faster, more responsive alternative to the stalled WTO process.