Argus Metals Movers: Turkey's Flat Steel Trade Patterns Set to Shift in 2026

The episode opens with a clear warning that the European Union’s tightening of origin rules for Russian hot‑rolled coil (HRC) and slab is already making Russian‑origin steel unviable for Turkish producers. Tolga Yi Tekiciler of Tatmetal confirms that sanctions have forced the industry to look beyond Russia and diversify its supplier base. He stresses that risk‑managed procurement—maintaining multiple sources— is now essential for Turkish mills to sustain production volumes. This shift not only reshapes domestic input costs but also sets the stage for broader trade‑flow adjustments across the region.

EU‑planned quota cuts and a 50 % duty on excess flat‑steel shipments are slated for July, prompting Turkish exporters to rethink their market mix. While Europe has traditionally absorbed the bulk of Turkey’s galvanized and cold‑rolled output, the new limits are expected to push volumes toward North Africa, the Middle East, West Africa and Latin America. Tekiciler also flags the possible removal of the UK’s exemption on Turkish galvanized steel, which could further shrink European demand. Consequently, Tatmetal is positioning itself to capture emerging opportunities in these alternative regions before the quota thresholds are fully enforced.

The conversation turns to protectionist tools, with recent anti‑dumping margins on Chinese and South Korean cold‑rolled galvanized and pre‑painted coil (PPGI) imports providing a short‑term shield for domestic producers. However, Tekiciler warns that any further trade measure must balance export pressures with import security. He also highlights geopolitical risk: a closed Strait of Hormuz could reroute Chinese HRC to Turkey, inflating freight rates and straining supply chains. Coupled with Turkey’s high electricity and natural‑gas costs—still near 27 % interest‑rate‑driven inflation—these factors could squeeze margins and dampen production growth through 2026.