Friday: Oil Falls After Israel Agrees to Ceasefire Talks

The announcement that Israel and Lebanon will negotiate a ceasefire eased geopolitical tension, sending Brent down from $99 to $96.20 a barrel and WTI from $102 to $98. Risk assets rallied, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow each gaining roughly 0.5% as investors priced in a lower‑risk environment. Analysts highlighted that while the ceasefire reduces immediate volatility, the broader Middle East conflict still looms, keeping oil markets and global equities on a tightrope.

Currency markets reflected the sentiment shift. The Australian dollar rose to 70.77 US cents and the New Zealand dollar steadied at 58 US cents, both buoyed by risk‑off buying. ANZ’s FX team linked the moves to improved outlooks for diesel and jet fuel imports, which remain vulnerable to Middle‑East supply routes. In New Zealand, lighter traffic in March suggested firms were front‑loading freight before anticipated price hikes, a pattern echoing post‑COVID inventory strategies.

On the housing front, ANZ economist Maddy Dunk revised capital‑city price forecasts, cutting Sydney and Melbourne to negative growth and lowering the national rise to 2.8% for 2026. The RBA’s projected cash‑rate peak of 4.35% reinforces a restrictive monetary stance, dragging GDP growth lower. Smaller markets like Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide face slower gains, with Adelaide projected flat by 2027 due to affordability pressures. Meanwhile, China’s March CPI is expected at 1.4%, the first positive reading in years, driven largely by a 0.5% oil contribution, signaling a potential exit from deflation.