MoneyLife with Chuck Jaffe
Wellington-Altus' Thorne: 'Sell War, Buy Peace' And the Expansion That's Coming
Why It Matters
Understanding how geopolitical events and tech hype can distort market signals helps investors avoid reactionary trades and preserve capital. As the war risk in oil recedes and AI reshapes employment, the episode offers timely guidance on where to allocate assets and what macro indicators to watch for a more stable investment strategy.
Key Takeaways
- •War risk premium will vanish, expanding oil valuations.
- •Investors should sell war‑related assets, buy peace‑linked securities.
- •AI hype fuels anxiety; focus on fundamentals and jobs data.
- •Expect two Fed rate cuts by year‑end, if any.
- •Young adults chase speculative assets amid financial‑left‑behind feelings.
Pulse Analysis
Jim Thorne of Wellington‑Altus Private Wealth argues that the lingering terror premium on oil, a relic of the past five decades, will evaporate once the Iran tension eases. He predicts a sharp multiple expansion for energy stocks as geopolitical risk drops, especially after the U.S. president’s planned visit to China. Thorne’s mantra—‘sell war, buy peace’—encourages investors to rotate out of conflict‑driven commodities and into assets that benefit from stability. This shift could unlock significant upside in both traditional energy firms and peace‑linked infrastructure, setting the stage for a broader market rally.
The conversation then turned to the twin headlines of artificial‑intelligence hype and a tightening labor market. Vijay Marolia warned that AI‑related volatility is creating a “binary” anxiety loop, prompting sell orders that amplify market red‑shirts. He urged listeners to refocus on core fundamentals: upcoming jobs reports, inflation gauges such as the ISM, and the Federal Reserve’s policy path. With most analysts forecasting only two rate cuts before year‑end—if any—investors should monitor whether wage growth and price pressures converge, rather than reacting to headline noise.
Meanwhile, the Northwestern Mutual 2026 study revealed that many younger Americans feel financially left behind and are gravitating toward speculative vehicles like cryptocurrencies, prediction markets, and sports betting. Thorne cautioned that earnings guidance, not headline numbers, will drive stock moves, and that higher capex spending is no longer rewarded automatically. His advice: protect careers, leverage AI to enhance productivity, and stay disciplined amid market turbulence. By keeping a long‑term perspective and avoiding reactionary trades, investors can navigate the current “danger zone” while positioning for the post‑war, post‑AI equilibrium.
Episode Description
Jim Thorne, economist and chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, says that "when the Iran situation calms down ... we're going to see massive multiple expansion and the geopolitical risk is going to drop." As that story plays out, Thorne says to buy areas that will help build the U.S., and to buy into electricity generation to help support the artificial-intelligence boom. He also said that expects the Trump Administration to try to "run the economy hot" once tensions have ended, in order to help deal with the deficit.
Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, is also looking for a potential pick-up once the market can take its attention off of the war and the rapidly changing market sentiments in the battle between artificial intelligence and software. He says investors should back away from the headlines and keep a sharper watch on the job market, inflation and interest rates, which have the potential to take the market's focus off of the earnings numbers that drove gains in 2025.
David Trainer, president at New Constructs, says that he expects a number of high-flying companies to miss their earnings projections in the next quarter, noting that Wall Street keeps "two sets of numbers, the one they show the world and the real number," and that when the street figures out the real numbers, stocks like Solventum and Advanced Micro Devices are looking at big price adjustments.
Plus, Blake Gunderson of Northwestern Mutual Rockwall/East Texas discusses Northwestern Mutual's 2026 Planning & Progress study, which showed that a sizeable number of Americans — most notably younger adults — feel like they are financially behind and are investing in or considering high-risk speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies, prediction markets and sports betting as ways to play catch up.
Comments
Want to join the conversation?
Loading comments...