Did Biden Get China Right? Lessons Learned and What Comes Next

Why It Matters

A coherent, allied‑backed China strategy is crucial for preserving U.S. economic and security interests; policy volatility under the current administration could erode that advantage and reshape global competitive dynamics.

Key Takeaways

• Biden built a whole‑of‑government China strategy framework for governance.
• Aligning allies was central to Biden’s “invest‑align‑compete” approach.
• Trump’s policy oscillates between tariffs and accommodation, lacking coherence.
• Leader‑to‑leader diplomacy remains the primary agenda‑setting mechanism for US‑China relations.
• Absence of allied coordination risks ceding strategic advantage to China.

Summary

The Carnegie Endowment released a 165‑page report titled “Implementing the Biden Administration’s China Strategy,” and convened former officials Laura Rosenberger, Rush Doshi and Julian Gwartz to assess how the strategy was executed and how it compares with the current Trump administration.

Panelists highlighted that the Biden team stitched together a whole‑of‑government framework—‘invest, align, compete’—that integrated the State Department, Treasury, Commerce and the NSC, and deliberately leveraged allies as a force multiplier. By contrast, the Trump approach has been described as fragmented, unilateral and marked by abrupt policy swings, from 145 % tariffs to recent back‑off on export controls.

Rosenberger noted the pre‑Biden era lacked a coherent China policy, while Gwartz observed Beijing now perceives a weakening U.S. alliance network, interpreting it as a strategic advantage. Doshi emphasized the enduring assumption that China will not collapse, requiring competition tempered by management, and cited the oscillation between confrontational tariffs and diplomatic overtures as a source of Chinese confidence.

The discussion suggests that without a bipartisan, allied‑based strategy, the United States risks ceding strategic initiative to Beijing. Business leaders and policymakers must watch for further policy volatility, as shifts in tariffs, technology controls and diplomatic engagement directly affect supply chains, investment decisions and global market stability.

Original Description

The strategic competition between the United States and China will shape the operating environment for American statecraft for years to come. How is President Trump approaching China in his second term versus those who came before him? The Biden administration was the first U.S. administration to tackle this strategic challenge head on. How well did it perform? What lessons can be gleaned from its experience ahead of the upcoming Trump-Xi summit?

“Implementing the Biden Administration’s China Strategy,” a new report by Christopher S. Chivvis and Senkai Hsia for the Carnegie Endowment’s American Statecraft Program, tackles these questions. Drawing on dozens of interviews with senior Biden officials, the report traces the evolution of the administration’s approach and distills key lessons from both its successes and its shortcomings.

To mark the launch of this report, Christopher S. Chivvis, senior fellow and director of the American Statecraft Program, will be joined for a discussion by Rush Doshi, Julian Gerwitz, and Laura Rosenberger, former senior National Security Council officials who served as key architects of the administration’s China policy. Together, they’ll explore how the White House translated a broad strategic vision into operational policy, what it takes to manage great power relations, and more.