Global Trade Outlook 2026: Press Conference

Why It Matters

The forecast warns of a sharp trade slowdown and heightened geopolitical risk, urging policymakers to safeguard supply chains and uphold predictable trade rules to protect global growth and food security.

Key Takeaways

• 2026 merchandise trade growth projected at 1.9%, slowing sharply.
• Middle East conflict could cut trade growth by up to 0.5%.
• AI investment boom drove 2025 surge, unlikely to repeat in 2026.
• MFN tariff coverage fell to 72% of global merchandise trade.
• Maintaining predictable policies crucial for supply‑chain resilience and food security.

Summary

The WTO unveiled its 2026 Global Trade Outlook at a Geneva press conference, highlighting a stark slowdown in world merchandise trade after an unexpected 4.6% surge in 2025. Director‑General Dr. Goio Konjjoa and chief economist Robert Tiger warned that regional conflict in the Middle East and a cooling AI investment boom are the primary headwinds for 2026, with baseline merchandise trade growth projected at 1.9% and services trade at 4.8%.

Key data points show that the 2025 trade boom was driven by two one‑off forces: a front‑loading of North American imports ahead of U.S. tariff hikes and a rapid expansion of AI‑related goods, whose import intensity can reach 70‑90%. Both are unlikely to recur, and sustained higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict could shave another 0.5 percentage points from merchandise trade, pushing growth to 1.4%. Services trade faces a similar drag, potentially falling to 4.1%.

The DG emphasized that despite the turbulence, 72% of global merchandise trade still moves under MFN tariff terms, underscoring the resilience of the rules‑based system. He noted, “the rules‑based system may be battered, but it’s far from broken,” and highlighted the concentration of AI imports in a handful of economies—U.S., Taiwan, South Korea, Netherlands, Japan, and China—illustrating supply‑chain vulnerabilities.

The outlook signals that WTO members must prioritize predictable trade policies, bolster supply‑chain resilience, and keep food‑trade corridors open to mitigate the conflict’s impact on fertilizer and food security. With the MC14 ministerial conference looming in Yaoundé, these forecasts will shape negotiations on reforms aimed at preserving multilateral trade benefits for all members.

Original Description

Press conference with Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and Chief Economist Robert Staiger launching the Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, released on 19 March.

World trade is set to slow in 2026 following stronger than expected growth in 2025 on the back of surging trade in AI-enabling products. WTO economists warn that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could further reduce trade growth if energy prices remain elevated, noting that it would also put pressure on food supplies and services trade due to travel and transport disruptions. Prospects could still improve if the conflict ends quickly and the boom in AI spending continues.

Download this video from the WTO website:

https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/webcas_e/webcas_e.htm