Is Cuba Next? | Asked & Answered

CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies)
CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies)Apr 3, 2026

Why It Matters

A U.S. push to reshape Cuba’s economy could create new market opportunities while risking a humanitarian disaster that would reverberate across the Southern Hemisphere.

Key Takeaways

  • Trump linked Cuba pressure to Venezuela, Iran strategies.
  • Administration seeks regime management, not outright overthrow as policy.
  • Talks aim to open Cuba economically while preserving Castro influence.
  • Severe sanctions risk humanitarian crisis and mass migration.
  • Success depends on Cuban leadership’s willingness to negotiate.

Summary

The video examines whether Cuba is the next target of the Trump administration’s high‑pressure campaign, noting that Washington has already tied its tactics against Venezuela and Iran to a looming strategy for the island.

Analysts describe the U.S. approach as ‘regime management’—pressuring a government to change leadership or policy without dismantling the entire system. In Cuba, officials are reportedly courting multiple factions to negotiate economic liberalization while allowing the Castro family to retain political clout, mirroring the Venezuelan model that elevated Vice‑President Delcy Rodríguez.

The host cites the president’s “negotiate or else” warning, originally used on Nicolás Maduro, and warns that intensified sanctions could trigger a humanitarian emergency, food shortages and a surge of migrants crossing from the Florida Keys.

If successful, the strategy could open Cuba to U.S. investment and reshape Caribbean geopolitics; failure would deepen a crisis, strain U.S. resources, and destabilize the region.

Original Description

The Trump administration has been ratcheting up economic pressure on Cuba's government. What are the administration's goals, how is the Cuban government responding, and what are the risks for regional security? We turned to CSIS expert Christopher Hernandez-Roy for answers.
---------------------------------------------
A nonpartisan institution, CSIS is the top national security think tank in the world.
Visit https://www.csis.org to find more of our work as we bring bipartisan solutions to the world's greatest challenges.
Want to see more videos and virtual events? Subscribe to this channel and turn on notifications: https://cs.is/2dCfTve
Follow CSIS on:

Comments

Want to join the conversation?

Loading comments...