Skeptical About Any Progress with War in Iran, Says Brookings' Michael O'Hanlon

Why It Matters

The assessment warns that without genuine diplomatic breakthroughs, energy markets and global investors face sustained volatility, while the Trump‑Xi summit could reshape the strategic calculus of the Iran conflict.

Key Takeaways

• O'Hanlon doubts Trump’s 15‑point plan signals real progress.
• Iran remains unwilling to negotiate, seeking revenge and deterrence.
• Iranian asymmetric tactics could raise costs for U.S. and allies.
• Upcoming Trump‑Xi summit may influence war’s timeline, not guarantee peace.
• Energy markets stay volatile despite stock optimism, reflecting supply risks.

Summary

The video features Michael O’Hanlon, foreign‑policy program director at Brookings, who is asked to assess President Trump’s 15‑point peace proposal amid the ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict. O’Hanlon frames the discussion around whether the plan represents genuine diplomatic movement or merely political posturing.

O’Hanlon argues the proposal adds little, noting Iran shows no appetite to negotiate and is instead focused on revenge and re‑establishing deterrence. He highlights Tehran’s asymmetric, guerrilla‑style capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz and its use of covert attacks, which could raise the cost of any U.S.‑led resolution. Meanwhile, oil majors warn of persisting supply shortages despite a buoyant stock market.

Citing a paraphrase of General McChrystal, O’Hanlon says if we kill someone's family, they're not in a mood to negotiate the next day, underscoring Tehran’s hard‑line stance. He also remarks that President Trump’s scheduled meeting with China’s Xi Jinping may signal an expectation that the war will be resolved by April, though no concrete timeline is offered.

For investors and policymakers, the analysis suggests continued volatility in energy prices and heightened geopolitical risk, while the upcoming Trump‑Xi summit adds an uncertain diplomatic variable. Skepticism about near‑term peace means markets should prepare for prolonged instability and potential escalation.

Original Description

Michael O’Hanlon, Brookings, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss how equities and oil markets should view the war in Iran, a sign of more substantive progress in negotiations with Iran and much more.