U.S.-Iran War's Impact on Bitcoin, Crude Oil & FOMC's Near-Term Headwinds

Schwab Network
Schwab NetworkApr 1, 2026

Why It Matters

Bitcoin’s resilience amid geopolitical shock and shifting monetary policy underscores its emerging role as a hedge and a mainstream, highly liquid asset class, influencing investor allocations and regulatory focus.

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin outperformed gold and equities since Iran crisis began.
  • Geopolitical tension drives demand for non‑sovereign assets like Bitcoin.
  • Fed rate‑hike expectations may be overstated amid rising oil prices.
  • Iranian investors increasingly use Bitcoin, now 2.2% of GDP.
  • Crypto liquidity rivals major equity markets, indicating rapid maturation.

Summary

James Butterfield, head of research at CoinShares, joined Morning Movers to assess how the U.S.–Iran war, volatile oil prices, and looming FOMC decisions are reshaping crypto markets.

Since the Iran crisis erupted, Bitcoin has risen roughly 5%, outpacing gold’s 11.5% decline and equities’ 7% drop. Butterfield attributes the outperformance to Bitcoin’s non‑sovereign status, which attracts investors seeking a hedge against geopolitical turmoil, while Fed expectations of a June rate hike have muted further gains.

He noted that Iran’s currency plunge has pushed Bitcoin volumes to about 2.2% of the nation’s GDP, and a CoinShares survey finds over 40% of investors treat Bitcoin as a diversification tool. Daily Bitcoin liquidity now exceeds $20 billion, ranking the crypto market as the world’s sixth‑largest equity market by liquidity.

The convergence of geopolitical risk, evolving inflation dynamics, and regulatory clarity—such as the Clarity Act governing stablecoins—signals that crypto is maturing rapidly, offering a viable hedge and a growing institutional asset class.

Original Description

James Butterfill considers Bitcoin a practical tool, not a speculative asset as the U.S.-Iran War continues on. He weighs how climbing crude oil prices impact the U.S. economy and the Fed's interest rate expectations, culminating his views into how they play in the crypto space. Beyond geopolitical and economic tensions, James doesn't see the overall crypto narrative changing as adoption increases.
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