The Signal Before the Spike | Katie Stockton on What the Charts Tell Us About What Comes Next

Why It Matters

The divergent MACD signals suggest weakening equity momentum but a potentially sustained oil rally, prompting investors to adjust exposure using systematic technical cues rather than reacting to headlines alone.

Key Takeaways

• Monthly MACD shows sell signal for S&P 500, indicating weak momentum
• Oil’s MACD flipped to buy in February, preceding price spike
• Support zone 6130‑6175 critical; break could trigger deeper declines
• Ichimoku cloud provides visual trend forecast and support‑resistance cues
• Overbought/oversold readings rely on stochastic oscillator thresholds for technical analysis

Summary

In this interview, technical analyst Katie Stockton breaks down the latest chart signals shaping equity and commodity markets. She highlights a fresh monthly MACD sell crossover on the S&P 500, confirming dwindling intermediate‑term momentum and aligning with a DeMark 13 counter‑trend indicator. At the same time, the same MACD metric turned bullish for WTI crude oil in February, foreshadowing the dramatic price surge that followed the Middle‑East conflict. Stockton points to concrete data: roughly 44‑45% of S&P constituents remain above their 200‑day moving averages versus under 20% at the April 2025 low, and a key S&P support band between 6,130 and 6,175 derived from Fibonacci, MACD and other inputs. A breach below this zone could open the path to 5,900 or even the 5,000s, while a bounce would need to be confirmed by oversold readings and renewed momentum before any tactical exposure is added. She also explains the Ichimoku “cloud” as a forward‑looking trend gauge that visualizes support and resistance, and clarifies that “overbought” and “oversold” labels stem from measurable stochastic oscillator thresholds (below 20% oversold, above 80% overbought). These technical tools help separate genuine trend shifts from headline‑driven noise, especially amid heightened geopolitical volatility. For investors, the analysis signals a cautious stance on equities, with attention to the S&P’s support range and a potential prolonged choppy phase, while oil appears to be entering a new cyclical uptrend rather than a fleeting spike. Systematic, indicator‑driven decision‑making can help navigate the heightened volatility and avoid premature positioning based on headline hype.

Original Description

This episode explores the growing signs of a shift beneath the surface of the market, as technical indicators point to weakening momentum in equities and a potential change in leadership. Katie Stockton joins the show to break down what recent signals in the S&P 500, oil, gold, and sector rotation are telling us about where markets may be headed next.

We cover the implications of a new monthly MACD sell signal, the importance of market breadth and leadership, and how investors can interpret shifting trends across asset classes using a disciplined technical framework.

More on Katie's Strategies

https://www.fairleadstrategies.com/

Topics Covered:

* Why a new monthly MACD sell signal may signal a longer, choppier market phase

* The difference between fast corrections and slow grind bear phases

* Key S&P 500 support levels and what a breakdown could mean for downside risk

* How technical indicators help filter noise in headline-driven markets

* The breakout in crude oil and what it signals about a potential new cycle

* Whether sharp price moves are sustainable or likely to reverse

* Understanding overbought and oversold conditions across different timeframes

* Why mega-cap weakness is critical to overall market direction

* The shift from growth to value and what it means for investors

* Sector rotation trends and where leadership is emerging in 2025

* What gold’s recent run and emerging weakness signal for safe haven assets

* How a systematic, technical approach can help manage drawdowns and re-entry timing

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

04:18 S&P 500 momentum deterioration and MACD sell signal

08:09 Key support levels and downside scenarios for equities

12:53 Crude oil breakout and implications for a new cycle

16:01 What overbought and oversold really mean in practice

20:04 Mega-cap weakness and shifting market leadership

24:41 Concentration risk in investor portfolios

27:52 Value vs growth rotation and cycle dynamics

32:13 Market breadth and confirmation signals

36:19 Moving averages, death cross, and trend interpretation

39:56 Inside the TAC ETF and sector rotation strategy

44:04 Gold trends and why consolidation may be next

47:00 Key signals to watch going forward