Networked Information and Industrial Output: Evidence From Chile’s 1972 Truckers’ Strike

Key Takeaways

• 1972 strike cut Chilean industrial output about 9%
• Priority sectors exceeded model forecasts by 17 index points
• State‑owned firms with simple chains received most protection
• Food‑beverage sectors lacked effective Cybersyn shielding

Pulse Analysis

Cybersyn, the brain‑child of Chile’s socialist government under Salvador Allende, was one of the world’s first attempts to use real‑time computer networks for macro‑economic coordination. Built on mainframe hardware and a network of factory terminals, the system aimed to balance supply and demand across the economy. The 1972 truckers’ strike presented a natural experiment, forcing the nation’s logistics into a sudden shock and allowing researchers to isolate Cybersyn’s impact on industrial output.

Using a calibrated constant‑elasticity‑of‑substitution (CES)‑Leontief framework, the paper generates sector‑by‑sector counterfactuals that estimate what output would have been without any coordination intervention. The findings reveal that sectors earmarked as priorities—mostly state‑run enterprises with straightforward supply chains—outperformed their predicted trajectories by roughly 17 index points, a statistically notable deviation. Conversely, sectors with complex, multi‑tiered supply chains, especially food and beverages, showed no discernible benefit, underscoring the system’s limited reach when coordination demands exceed its design.

For contemporary policymakers and business leaders, the Chilean case offers a nuanced lesson: digital coordination tools can mitigate certain supply‑chain shocks, but their efficacy is bounded by institutional alignment and operational simplicity. Modern equivalents—such as blockchain‑based logistics platforms or AI‑driven demand forecasting—must account for ownership structures, the depth of supply‑chain interdependencies, and the availability of ancillary support like military or state logistics. Tailoring digital interventions to sectors where they can be most readily applied may yield the greatest resilience dividends, while more intricate industries will likely require complementary strategies.