TD Cowen: 26% of Carriers Would Use AI Instead of Freight Brokers

Why It Matters

The shift toward AI threatens the traditional brokerage model and could reshape pricing dynamics as carriers seek cost efficiencies amid rising fuel and labor expenses.

Key Takeaways

• 26% of carriers would replace brokers with AI tools entirely
• 40% would use AI for simple loads, keep brokers for complex lanes
• Personal relationships remain top broker value, resisting full automation
• Carrier rate expectations rose to 2.9% in Q1, up 90 bps
• Diesel prices surged 55% YTD, squeezing carrier margins

Pulse Analysis

The trucking industry is at a crossroads as artificial‑intelligence platforms move from experimental pilots to operational tools. TD Cowen’s survey reveals that more than a quarter of carriers are ready to bypass human brokers entirely, leveraging APIs that connect directly to shippers. This willingness reflects broader supply‑chain pressures: carriers need faster, data‑rich match‑making to fill capacity gaps, and AI promises to reduce the latency and commission costs inherent in traditional brokerage. Yet the survey also underscores a human element—personal relationships still rank highest in broker value, suggesting that full automation will likely coexist with relationship‑driven services rather than replace them outright.

Rate dynamics add another layer of complexity. Contractual freight rates climbed to 2.9% in the first quarter, a 90‑basis‑point increase fueled primarily by a shrinking pool of available trucks rather than a surge in consumer demand. The tightening capacity has forced shippers to offer higher contract rates to secure reliable haulage, while carriers are renegotiating more contracts—renewal rates doubled to 2.0% from the previous quarter. This upward pressure on rates offers carriers a modest revenue boost, but the gains are being eroded by escalating input costs.

Cost pressures remain the dominant headwind. Driver‑pay expectations rose to 5.2% year‑over‑year, the highest level since 2022, while diesel prices have surged roughly 55% year‑to‑date, compressing operating margins. In this environment, AI tools could provide a buffer by optimizing route planning, reducing deadhead miles, and automating invoice processing, thereby offsetting some of the margin squeeze. However, the technology’s adoption will hinge on its ability to complement, not replace, the relational trust that carriers still place in human brokers.