Truckload Rates Climb for Fourth Straight Month Despite Weak Volumes, Notes U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index-Rates Edition

Why It Matters

Higher per‑mile costs are hitting large shippers even as volumes decline, signaling a supply‑led market that pressures freight budgets and contract negotiations.

Key Takeaways

• Spot rates rose 3.6% February vs. January
• Contract rates increased only 0.1% in same period
• Spot linehaul reached $2.01/mile, up from $1.65
• Contract linehaul hit $2.12/mile, narrowing rate gap
• Shipment volumes fell: spot down 3.7%, contract down 22.1%

Pulse Analysis

The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index‑Rates Edition, which blends DAT’s benchmark data with U.S. Bank transaction volumes, shows truckload pricing climbing for the fourth month in a row. February spot rates jumped 3.6% from January, while contract rates edged up just 0.1%, pushing the average spot linehaul to $2.01 per mile—up from $1.65 in November. Contract linehaul followed suit, reaching $2.12 per mile, a modest rise from $2.02. This upward trajectory occurs even as overall shipment counts remain muted, highlighting a market driven more by pricing power than volume growth.

The narrowing gap between spot and contract rates—down from $0.39 a year ago to roughly $0.11—signals carriers are tightening capacity and extracting higher yields before contracts can adjust. Spot markets, traditionally more responsive, are tightening ahead of contract pricing, indicating a supply‑led environment where carriers protect margins amid declining volumes. For large shippers, the consequence is higher per‑mile expenses despite steady or falling shipment numbers, forcing them to reassess freight budgeting, negotiate more aggressively, and consider alternative modes or consolidation strategies to mitigate cost pressure.

Looking ahead, the persistence of rate gains without a corresponding rebound in demand suggests the truckload market may remain in a pricing‑driven regime through the rest of 2026. Carriers are likely to continue leveraging limited capacity to sustain yields, while shippers may explore digital freight platforms and longer‑term contracts to lock in rates. Monitoring the spread between spot and contract linehaul will be crucial for forecasting cost trends, and any shift in volume recovery could quickly recalibrate the balance, either easing pricing pressure or intensifying it if capacity constraints tighten further.