Xeneta Schedule Reliability Scorecard - February 2026 - Monthly Update

Why It Matters

The accelerating reliability erosion threatens freight cost stability and inventory planning, forcing shippers to reassess routing and carrier contracts. Persistent delays signal a broader systemic shock to maritime logistics that could reshape supply‑chain risk profiles for global trade.

Key Takeaways

• Global OTP down to 27%, worst since Jan 2025
• Average delay rose 12 hours to 4.9 days
• Far East‑Europe OTP fell to 18%, lowest since Aug 2025
• Gemini Cooperation dropped to 60% OTP, biggest single‑month fall
• Persian Gulf delays cut OTP to 33% in week

Pulse Analysis

The February 2026 scorecard confirms that the recent dip in on‑time performance is no seasonal blip but a structural shift. Global OTP fell to 27 %, while average delays stretched another 12 hours beyond January’s 4.1‑day baseline. Analysts point to a confluence of factors: lingering alliance realignments, unusually late Chinese New Year congestion in Yantian and Ningbo, and adverse North Pacific storm patterns that slowed Pacific crossings. Together, these forces have amplified both the frequency and severity of late arrivals, marking the early stages of a prolonged reliability downturn.

Trade‑lane analysis reveals a heterogeneous impact. The Far East‑Europe corridor, already strained by Cape of Good Hope detours, sank to an 18 % OTP—the lowest since August 2025, while the Middle East trade mirrored this decline. Even traditionally resilient routes like South America West Coast managed only a 40 % OTP. Such uneven performance pressures shippers to re‑evaluate cargo allocations, as delayed berths in key hubs like Long Beach and Los Angeles translate into higher demurrage costs and volatile surcharge structures. The ripple effect extends to adjacent corridors, amplifying uncertainty for Africa‑Europe and Asia‑South America flows.

Looking ahead, the Persian Gulf’s emerging bottlenecks could accelerate the reliability erosion. Ports such as Nhava Sheva have seen OTP plunge from 50 % to 33 % within a week, underscoring the need for granular, real‑time performance monitoring. Shippers are advised to leverage tools like Xeneta’s Ocean Schedules to benchmark service levels across port pairs and to diversify carrier portfolios where alliance performance falters. Proactive route optimization and contingency planning will be essential to mitigate the financial and operational fallout of a maritime sector grappling with sustained disruptions.