How the Iran War Affects the Global Food Chain | The High Top

Why It Matters

Rising fertilizer and energy prices threaten global food supplies and inflation, increasing the risk of crop shortfalls, higher consumer food bills and fiscal pressure that could fuel political instability across import-dependent and lower-income countries. These dynamics also reshape regional defense and economic priorities, with broader implications for global commodity markets and supply chains.

Summary

The Iran war has disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz—including an estimated 20–30% of global fertilizer exports—pushing nitrogen fertilizer prices to their highest levels since the 2022 spike after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Higher fertilizer and energy costs are already raising production and transport expenses, threatening planting decisions this season and potentially in future cycles. Impacts will be highly uneven: wealthy Gulf states can buffer consumers and expatriates, while labor-exporting and subsidy-dependent countries such as Egypt, Tunisia, Bangladesh and Morocco face sharper fiscal and social strains. Attacks on energy infrastructure, like the strike on Qatar LNG, underscore longer-term supply risks and a psychological hit that could depress tourism, remittances and investment in the region.

Original Description

In this episode of The High Top, Caitlin Welsh, Director of the Global Food and Water Security Program, joins Jon B. Alterman, Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, to examine how the Iran War is affecting global food systems. Their conversation unpacks the effects of conflict in the Gulf on global fertilizer markets, the cost of producing and trading food, and food access in the Middle East and around the world.

A big part of the story is fertilizer. Although relatively little grows in the arid Gulf, the region is central to global agriculture. Roughly 20–30% of global fertilizer exports move through the Strait of Hormuz, and prices for key nitrogen fertilizers have already surged to their highest levels since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Higher fertilizer prices raise the cost of crops, and higher fuel prices mean it is more expensive to grow, transport, and refrigerate produce. Food prices are being pushed upwards from many directions at once, and that affects poor countries even more than rich ones.

To explore how this war is reshaping food security worldwide, tune into Jon and Caitlin’s full conversation.

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