Russia and China: Gaining From the War with Iran? | State of Play

Why It Matters

The shifting dynamics illustrate how China and Russia could leverage Middle‑East tensions to erode U.S. influence, but their own energy and trade dependencies limit how far they can push a broader conflict.

Key Takeaways

• China maintains neutral stance, urges ceasefire and two‑state solution.
• Beijing worries about energy security and Red Sea trade disruptions.
• Russia seeks to exploit U.S. distraction but avoids full regional war.
• Moscow relies on Iranian drones; wants Iran intact against Israeli strikes.
• Both powers view Middle East as arena to weaken U.S. influence.

Summary

China and Russia are closely watching the escalating Israel‑Iran conflict, with CSIS experts Bonny Lin and Maria Snegovaya explaining how the two powers interpret the risks and opportunities. Beijing continues to portray itself as a peacemaker, urging an immediate ceasefire and a two‑state solution, while refusing to label the Oct 7 attacks as terrorism.

China’s primary concerns are energy security, potential Red Sea trade disruptions, and broader global instability that could hurt its export‑driven growth. Russia, meanwhile, seeks to exploit U.S. distraction in the region, using its “contained chaos” to weaken American influence, but it wants to avoid a full‑scale war that would force it to pick sides. Moscow’s reliance on Iranian drones and ballistic missiles makes a weakened Iran undesirable.

Both nations have cultivated diplomatic ties across the Middle East, with China facilitating the Beijing Declaration among Palestinian factions and Russia maintaining mediation channels. They present themselves as alternatives to the U.S.-led order, positioning themselves as protectors of Global South interests while quietly benefiting from Western preoccupation.

The analysis suggests that while Beijing and Moscow may gain short‑term leverage, their strategic calculations are constrained by energy dependencies, trade routes, and the risk of regional escalation that could destabilize the very markets they rely on.

Original Description

As the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran enters its third week, U.S. attention is focused on the Middle East once again. Both China and Russia may find strategic openings, from higher global energy prices that bolster Moscow’s war economy to new opportunities for Beijing to expand its influence elsewhere. But the conflict also carries costs for both. Instability threatens critical energy supplies to China, while the conflict is prompting the further degradation of a key Russian partner in the Middle East. On balance, are Russia and China gaining or losing more from the war with Iran?

The CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department invites you to a live episode of State of Play to explore the implications of the war with Iran for China and Russia on Monday 16 March at 4:00pm. The discussion will feature Dr. Bonny Lin, Dr. Maria Snegovaya, and Will Todman.

This event is made possible through general support to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

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